🏁🏎️ Sportsbet.io🏁 FORMULA 1 2024 Season🏁🏎️Prediction Pool Discussion Thread

[darxiaomi]

Thought this might be the time I actually watch a race, and then Euro qualifiers come around so I know where my priorities will continue to lie this weekend

Giving up looking for good odds for a podium finish for an outsider. Someone give me a quick rundown on why Bottas is no longer considered a contender -- 250/1 for a podium place. I know he's switched down to an inferior car but are the differences in machines really so huge that good drivers stand no chance? Or is it a combination of Bottas also deteriorating?

In F1 car its like a 80% of your performance, and for that you see BOTTAS so low chances to catch anything. In other series its not that way like INDYCAR, but that its because in INDY the cars are all equals with very little diference, here in F1 the cars follow some rules but are very diferent in all the ascpects, also in INDYCAR you only have one or two motors manufacters to choose here in f1 we have now 4 (and its in a low historic).

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[casperBGD]

~snip
In F1 car its like a 80% of your performance, and for that you see BOTTAS so low chances to catch anything.

agree here, I would even go with bigger percentage
just look at some drivers, and their performances this season, Alonso was were competitive till now, but it seems that Mercedes and Ferrari are catching up with their cars compared to Aston Martin, and all of the sudden, Hamilton and Russell are back into the race (almost as they learned how to drive again, both at the same time)
but overall, it is just better car for them, and Red Bull car is so dominant that Perez and Max are looking as best drivers ever seen

[1miau]

Someone give me a quick rundown on why Bottas is no longer considered a contender -- 250/1 for a podium place. I know he's switched down to an inferior car but are the differences in machines really so huge that good drivers stand no chance? Or is it a combination of Bottas also deteriorating?

Yes, differences are huge depending on what cars drivers are driving because of general car engineering and aerodynamics (front wing, rear wing, side pods, floor etc.) and engineering is very important for a good car.
Even Verstappen, Hamilton, Leclerc or Alonso would only get some lousy points from time to time in an Alfa Romeo, where Bottas is driving currently.

Bottas is a decent driver but it's only possible to achieve a podium in an Alfa Romeo / Haas / Alpha Tauri / Williams currently, where there's massive chaos in a race like a big crash, where half of the grid is involved in or suddenly heavy rain for example.

[swogerino]

Giving up looking for good odds for a podium finish for an outsider. Someone give me a quick rundown on why Bottas is no longer considered a contender -- 250/1 for a podium place. I know he's switched down to an inferior car but are the differences in machines really so huge that good drivers stand no chance? Or is it a combination of Bottas also deteriorating?

Bottas with a car like Alfa Romeo has exactly 0 chances to get to the podium in a normal race but since we would be having rain during this weekend,it is worth trying even 1000/1 odds as who knows what the rain brings,cars going out of track,crashes and a lot of other unpredictable things that can happen because of it.On normal conditions though Bottas is getting old but this is no good reason to rate him at that odd for the podium while driving an Alfa Romeo is a big reason why it is exactly correct to rate him at that odd for the podium,the Alfa Romeo seems in the same level or just a bit better than Williams.

[buwaytress]

Bottas is a decent driver but it's only possible to achieve a podium in an Alfa Romeo / Haas / Alpha Tauri / Williams currently, where there's massive chaos in a race like a big crash, where half of the grid is involved in or suddenly heavy rain for example.

I don't know why but I feel like that's so wrong. I suppose that's how Ocon got his podium a few races ago (can't remember how or why). Let's see what the slip brings if it comes tomorrow then!

Bottas with a car like Alfa Romeo has exactly 0 chances to get to the podium in a normal race but since we would be having rain during this weekend,it is worth trying even 1000/1 odds as who knows what the rain brings,cars going out of track,crashes and a lot of other unpredictable things that can happen because of it.On normal conditions though Bottas is getting old but this is no good reason to rate him at that odd for the podium while driving an Alfa Romeo is a big reason why it is exactly correct to rate him at that odd for the podium,the Alfa Romeo seems in the same level or just a bit better than Williams.

You agree, then, yeah? It's worth a punt on someone, especially if it rains? I'm still looking for a valid reason why Bottas (a name that's familiar enough to me as an F1 non-follower) should be seen as only able to finish on the podium once in 250 races haha.

Unfortunately, the bookies must have heard me as today the odds have gone down significantly to 91/1.

I still threw some money on it ha ha.

[tokeweed]

Thought this might be the time I actually watch a race, and then Euro qualifiers come around so I know where my priorities will continue to lie this weekend

Giving up looking for good odds for a podium finish for an outsider. Someone give me a quick rundown on why Bottas is no longer considered a contender -- 250/1 for a podium place. I know he's switched down to an inferior car but are the differences in machines really so huge that good drivers stand no chance? Or is it a combination of Bottas also deteriorating?

He was never a contender...  Even when he was driving the best car right up there with Hamilton at Mercedes.  

He's just relatively an average driver, who's dependable and consistent.  But other than that, he's nothing special.  It's also exactly why Toto Wolff gave him Mercedes' second drive.  To just be the no. 2 driver, defend Hamilton and try to finish 1 - 2 every race.  It was all good for a couple of years until Bottas wanted to be champion himself.  Lol.  That's when the incnsistencies in his performance started to happen because he was getting emotional at times.

[CLS63]

~snip
In F1 car its like a 80% of your performance, and for that you see BOTTAS so low chances to catch anything.

agree here, I would even go with bigger percentage
just look at some drivers, and their performances this season, Alonso was were competitive till now, but it seems that Mercedes and Ferrari are catching up with their cars compared to Aston Martin, and all of the sudden, Hamilton and Russell are back into the race (almost as they learned how to drive again, both at the same time)
but overall, it is just better car for them, and Red Bull car is so dominant that Perez and Max are looking as best drivers ever seen

It is true that the better car mostly shows its driver better than a driver of a less powerful car. However when it comes to assessing the drivers by assuming they have the same cars then we can witness really interesting things. Drivers like Verstappen and Hamilton can still be ahead of the others under the same conditions. But for example Perez is a candidate to be left behind by a few drivers on the grid due to making simple mistakes despite having really good driving skills.

The most skillful drivers would still be in front of the others in that case. But I don't think we would see such thing like same cars in F1 so this will always go on like this seemingly.

Bottas is a decent driver but it's only possible to achieve a podium in an Alfa Romeo / Haas / Alpha Tauri / Williams currently, where there's massive chaos in a race like a big crash, where half of the grid is involved in or suddenly heavy rain for example.

I don't know why but I feel like that's so wrong. I suppose that's how Ocon got his podium a few races ago (can't remember how or why). Let's see what the slip brings if it comes tomorrow then!

Ocon was on podium yeah but it was the Monaco GP. As the track isn't much available to overtake the others qualifying session is very important. It is mostly the decider of the race result as well. Ocon finished qualifying session in 4th place and Ferrari's strategical mistake helped Ocon capture Leclerc's place on podium.

[boltz]

I just did a random pick for this round of F1 as I still believe we will have 1 chaos race and it seems that Canada might be that one.

Also , after Ferrari won LeMans , I went with Lec to get another podium , followed by a victory and 1-2 podium for Ferrari with both Max and Lewis having a DNF as I didn't take neither of them for top 10. Instead , I went with Perez to take 3rd place and also the fastest lap of the race.

[swogerino]

I just did a random pick for this round of F1 as I still believe we will have 1 chaos race and it seems that Canada might be that one.

Also , after Ferrari won LeMans , I went with Lec to get another podium , followed by a victory and 1-2 podium for Ferrari with both Max and Lewis having a DNF as I didn't take neither of them for top 10. Instead , I went with Perez to take 3rd place and also the fastest lap of the race.

Going that route you either win big and make a lot of coming up in the standings in the pool  or otherwise you get out of the fight for a prize here with that type of prediction.I saw that the last session of the practice was completely in rain and the time was 1.23.1 for Verstappen topping the standings while for the second practice the top guy was 1.13.x and I think if the race will be in rain tomorrow maybe it will truly be that race,that chaotic race which would finally see another winner except Redbull drivers which have dominated completely so far.

For me though I have gone to the standard prediction of top 1-2 Redbull,3-4 Ferrari,5-6 Mercedes,7-8 Aston Martin and 9-10 Alpine  .

[1miau]

Bottas is a decent driver but it's only possible to achieve a podium in an Alfa Romeo / Haas / Alpha Tauri / Williams currently, where there's massive chaos in a race like a big crash, where half of the grid is involved in or suddenly heavy rain for example.

I don't know why but I feel like that's so wrong. I suppose that's how Ocon got his podium a few races ago (can't remember how or why). Let's see what the slip brings if it comes tomorrow then!

Ocon's podium in Monaco is still very special but also very different from a Bottas podium in Canada.
Ocon is driving in an Alpine car, it's a midfield car and much better compared to Alfa Romeo. That way and having a bit of luck, Ocon was able to get a good qualifying position for the race.

And like CLS63 said, it's also Monaco, where overtaking is extremely hard, so qualifying position matters a lot, which Ocon got because his Alpine car is not a bad car. He maintained that position in the race because overtaking is almost impossible in Monaco (only by strategy, mostly).
We saw how even Perez couldn't pass anyone on track, when he started from far behind. Monaco is a very special track making Ocon's podium possible.

I still threw some money on it ha ha.

While I believe, it's almost impossible to happen, maybe if it'll be rainy tomorrow as well, we can get a crash where Bottas can be lucky but even after that, it'll be very difficult for Bottas to stay ahead. Canada has a long straight, where overtaking is possible and his car is just too slow.
But still, good luck of course for your bet.  
Maybe we'll get a surprise.
Interestingly, getting top 3 in qualifying is at 150 for Bottas, which is more likely compared to the race (we don't even know if the race will be wet or not):



Mercedes (especially Hamilton) odds Top 3 qualifying are looking tempting but as rainy qualification sessions are quite difficult to predict, I'll stay away from betting for this session. Maybe we'll see some good bets for tomorrow's race.  
Good luck for all of your bets + predictions of course.  

[CLS63]

Qualifying session has started and I'm really wondering how much it will rain during it. We have seen much bigger times in FP3 due to rain. If we see that it rains and stops during the session this can make us watch a really different qualifying from normal times. It still seems difficult to get past Verstappen and win pole position though. Because he was still great in FP3 under rain as he got the 1st place anyway.

I'm expecting a good performance from Mercedes drivers at the weekend as well by the way. They might be able to maintain the good look in the previous race.

[püsür]

Qualifying session has started and I'm really wondering how much it will rain during it. We have seen much bigger times in FP3 due to rain. If we see that it rains and stops during the session this can make us watch a really different qualifying from normal times. It still seems difficult to get past Verstappen and win pole position though. Because he was still great in FP3 under rain as he got the 1st place anyway.

I'm expecting a good performance from Mercedes drivers at the weekend as well by the way. They might be able to maintain the good look in the previous race.

I think almost for the first time in a long while, we cannot foresee who might at the top in this race. It's really been a while. Redbull's job will be tough. In montreal, the car is not suitable for the track and the mercedes team has started to solve the car's problems. Aston martin has brought a number of updates. Even if it rains in the qualifying rounds, the weather will be fine tomorrow. I also thought it was about to be cancelled due to the forest fires but I guess it must be ok now. I think this race is open to a lot of surprises.

[notblox1]

I still threw some money on it ha ha.

Another one of your famous lottery bets?  Good luck with this one

I just saw Carlos Sainz crashed out in wet final practice, and I think rain is going to affect race results a lot.
Many teams and drivers are not that good in rain conditions and one small mistake can cost them a lot.
Maybe this is good time for Fernando Alonso to try and attack second position for drivers and teams, or maybe it is Hamiltons time to shine.
Verstappen is taking the first place unless something unexpected happens.

[swogerino]

Qualifying session has started and I'm really wondering how much it will rain during it. We have seen much bigger times in FP3 due to rain. If we see that it rains and stops during the session this can make us watch a really different qualifying from normal times. It still seems difficult to get past Verstappen and win pole position though. Because he was still great in FP3 under rain as he got the 1st place anyway.

I'm expecting a good performance from Mercedes drivers at the weekend as well by the way. They might be able to maintain the good look in the previous race.

Rain and a Piastri who made a red flag appear made it easy for Verstappen to win the Pole Position this time,adding two poles to his name in this legendary track,last year and this one which of course have something in common and that is both such poles come into rain.

I expected a bit more from McLaren but I am confidently seeing that they are improving in qualifying in these last 2-3 races but something I am not seeing materialize in the races,I think most likely I would wait until Silverstone when that "all new car" will be on track delivering.

[CLS63]

Rain and a Piastri who made a red flag appear made it easy for Verstappen to win the Pole Position this time,adding two poles to his name in this legendary track,last year and this one which of course have something in common and that is both such poles come into rain.

I expected a bit more from McLaren but I am confidently seeing that they are improving in qualifying in these last 2-3 races but something I am not seeing materialize in the races,I think most likely I would wait until Silverstone when that "all new car" will be on track delivering.

Yeah Piastri couldn't control his car at the exit of that corner and crashed into the wall unfortunately. He did a really good job by qualifying for Q3 anyway of course. Q3 finished early as the track conditions got far worse due to heavy rain. Verstappen is still starting in pole position and it wasn't that hard for him to make it to there either.

Hulkenberg was surprising in Q3 as he secured the 2nd place. However he got a grid penalty later on so he is starting in 5th place instead. This is still good work though. Sainz has also lost 3 places and he is starting behind Leclerc. When it comes to Leclerc it was a really poor session for him unfortunately.

Ferrari again made a mistake with tyre strategies this time. Because while Verstappen was on softs Leclerc also wanted the same from his team. But Ferrari didn't do it and Leclerc couldn't make it to Q3. 

[swogerino]

Rain and a Piastri who made a red flag appear made it easy for Verstappen to win the Pole Position this time,adding two poles to his name in this legendary track,last year and this one which of course have something in common and that is both such poles come into rain.

I expected a bit more from McLaren but I am confidently seeing that they are improving in qualifying in these last 2-3 races but something I am not seeing materialize in the races,I think most likely I would wait until Silverstone when that "all new car" will be on track delivering.

Yeah Piastri couldn't control his car at the exit of that corner and crashed into the wall unfortunately. He did a really good job by qualifying for Q3 anyway of course. Q3 finished early as the track conditions got far worse due to heavy rain. Verstappen is still starting in pole position and it wasn't that hard for him to make it to there either.

Hulkenberg was surprising in Q3 as he secured the 2nd place. However he got a grid penalty later on so he is starting in 5th place instead. This is still good work though. Sainz has also lost 3 places and he is starting behind Leclerc. When it comes to Leclerc it was a really poor session for him unfortunately.

Ferrari again made a mistake with tyre strategies this time. Because while Verstappen was on softs Leclerc also wanted the same from his team. But Ferrari didn't do it and Leclerc couldn't make it to Q3. 

I did not know the penalties and thought Hulkenberg to start 2nd to resemble Alonso second place last year.The fifth place is still good enough and I think the grid positions now that even Sainz will start behind Leclerc make it even more interesting.Also what I need to see is if Mercedes has the highest top speed of all cars here,it will not be of much help to win the race but anyway it is a good start of recovery,in the last 2-3 races I have seen quite some improvement from them.I have put them 5-6 in the predictor pool but I am not going to change them as I have already netted 3 points with Verstappen pole and EBP points.

One thing is sure though,we need that f*cking rain to be present during all race otherwise we will see a boring race completely dominated by Redbull.

[CLS63]

I did not know the penalties and thought Hulkenberg to start 2nd to resemble Alonso second place last year.The fifth place is still good enough and I think the grid positions now that even Sainz will start behind Leclerc make it even more interesting.Also what I need to see is if Mercedes has the highest top speed of all cars here,it will not be of much help to win the race but anyway it is a good start of recovery,in the last 2-3 races I have seen quite some improvement from them.I have put them 5-6 in the predictor pool but I am not going to change them as I have already netted 3 points with Verstappen pole and EBP points.

One thing is sure though,we need that f*cking rain to be present during all race otherwise we will see a boring race completely dominated by Redbull.

This is the whole provisional grid for now by the way. There are four drivers who have got grid penalties. Rain can really have a serious impact on the grid nearly every time.  

Alonso has a really good chance for podium in this race. Despite the rain I liked his effort in qualifying session. He was way better than Perez despite his driving a Red Bull. Mercedes are improving their car day by day seemingly. This is a really good effort by both drivers. And yeah I wouldn't suggest you to change your picks in this situation. Rain can make this race much more watchable for most people and it is the same for nearly all the tracks actually. Verstappen is still a very dominant driver maybe but who knows.

I still remember how terrible his performance was in the Singapore GP under rain last season. We never know when he would have a similar experience under such conditions again.

[buwaytress]

Ocon's podium in Monaco is still very special but also very different from a Bottas podium in Canada.
Ocon is driving in an Alpine car, it's a midfield car and much better compared to Alfa Romeo. That way and having a bit of luck, Ocon was able to get a good qualifying position for the race.

Yeah and now Bottas sitting way out down on the starting grid, it's going to need several minor miracles for a podium finish (hence the downgrading of bookie odds again). Superbru predictions are what matter this season, of course, so I'll still be keeping an eye tonight if I'm not overcome by old-age sleepiness.

Happy Father's Day to all who have kids sucking the life energy out of you

Another one of your famous lottery bets?  Good luck with this one

Thanks! I haven't had a 40/1 or more win this entire season, which is something of a personal record NOT to get, let's see if I get something juicy in the off-season.

[swogerino]

There was a Safety Car which marked the 50 anniversary of the first Safety Car which was exactly here in Canada in 1973 but unfortunately the Safety Car did not change anything as both Verstappen,Hamilton and Alonso entered the pit the same time during that Safety Car.

What looks like another error was again Ferrari leaving both their drivers out with medium tires which would be a very difficult choice when they will got stopping as all other cars are with hard tires so when they will came out they will have a lot of traffic in front of them.Perez is doing his long haul race and he may as well end in the podium.

[Koal-84]

Unfortunately, my prediction of Hamilton as the winner didn't work out, but with a bit of luck I guessed the podium, just in the constellation of Hamilton, Verstappen and Alonso. But it was a bit different, but that's how it is.

Otherwise a decent race, Ferrari was even better than expected and Mercedes confirmed their performance from Friday and Saturday, so on to the next race.