🏁🏎️ Sportsbet.io🏁 FORMULA 1 2024 Season🏁🏎️Prediction Pool Discussion Thread

[buwaytress]

basically, Superbru is favoring picking favorites in all sports, not just F1, because of point system
it is not easy to pick a surprise and reward for that is really low

Yup! Lesson that keeps repeating itself for me in pools -- can't help myself in EPL to go for gut upsets, and if I win, it's rare, and only gets me 3 points. Still remember picking 4-0 for Liverpool vs United and only getting 0.5 points more than majority who went 2-1. Absolutely no risk reward motivation, and hence, safe picks on F1.

Time to cut off Ocon and Gasly?

I will say yes with closed eyes, but with Alpine you never know, they have this kind of low parts in all the seasons, but always they find a way in a race to recover and start fighting for points. They always lives in this double state.

That's the main problem. Both these guys can snatch you valuable points if you just get their position right 8-10 (I used to stick with Tsunoda and then tried Ocon/Gasly but horrible results). Guess I don't lose by sticking with them a couple more times.

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[darxiaomi]

That's the main problem. Both these guys can snatch you valuable points if you just get their position right 8-10 (I used to stick with Tsunoda and then tried Ocon/Gasly but horrible results). Guess I don't lose by sticking with them a couple more times.

Anyways i think last race doesnt count for a serious analisys about alpine, they were really un lucky inthat start and ended up with the two cars out, and the crash was more fault of others like Zhou than from them.

Tsunoda for me its a bad driver i said it countless times, i want to see how Ricciardo can do with this car, in the first race he made a very decent paper.

[boltz]

That's the main problem. Both these guys can snatch you valuable points if you just get their position right 8-10 (I used to stick with Tsunoda and then tried Ocon/Gasly but horrible results). Guess I don't lose by sticking with them a couple more times.

Anyways i think last race doesnt count for a serious analisys about alpine, they were really un lucky inthat start and ended up with the two cars out, and the crash was more fault of others like Zhou than from them.

Tsunoda for me its a bad driver i said it countless times, i want to see how Ricciardo can do with this car, in the first race he made a very decent paper.

I think Tsunoda has a fiery character that most of times won't suit F1 driving style but overall , he is a cool kid , great racing driver but he can get out of the zone in a second and that can compromise races and points for the team.

For me , Ricciardo is nowhere near what it used to be some years ago and he knows that so right now , I'm just happy to see him racing in F1 again.

[swogerino]

That's the main problem. Both these guys can snatch you valuable points if you just get their position right 8-10 (I used to stick with Tsunoda and then tried Ocon/Gasly but horrible results). Guess I don't lose by sticking with them a couple more times.

Anyways i think last race doesnt count for a serious analisys about alpine, they were really un lucky inthat start and ended up with the two cars out, and the crash was more fault of others like Zhou than from them.

Tsunoda for me its a bad driver i said it countless times, i want to see how Ricciardo can do with this car, in the first race he made a very decent paper.

I think Tsunoda has a fiery character that most of times won't suit F1 driving style but overall , he is a cool kid , great racing driver but he can get out of the zone in a second and that can compromise races and points for the team.

For me , Ricciardo is nowhere near what it used to be some years ago and he knows that so right now , I'm just happy to see him racing in F1 again.

I think the same we cannot expect anything more than this from Ricciardo,he is a very talented driver but unfortunately the maximum he has achieved in F1 is to just win some races,most other drivers have done the same so nothing to come out of the crowd I would say about him.He had his chances at Redbull and could not become a leader there,now of course he can drive much better than Tsunoda because Ricciardo has been driving with us since Indianapolis 2011 where he debuted so nothing to compare here,Tsunoda was a mediocre driver,had his time in F1 and could not make good things out of it.

From the rookies for me Piastri makes a great driver and he was even defending people who did not let him space to fight in Hungary,so a very nice guy in this context too,I am sure with time he can go a long way.

[1miau]

From a betting perspective, try looking in the points finish market.  If any driver's odds from teams Red Bull, McLaren, Mercedes, Ferrari, Aston Martin is lined above 2.00 and has no grid penalty then it's an auto bet...  At least for me.

Not sure if I'd bet on Stroll, he has been very inconsistent so far and especially because Aston Martin hasn't made any progress (McLaren, Ferrari, Mercedes and RedBull are faster), so I would skip him because it's already enough  if one of Ocon, Gasly, Albon or even Ricciardo, if he's good, will finish in front of him and he'll be out of the points.
Alonso, yes, he's top 10 candidate but Stroll is very inconsistent.


And @CLS63

I've checked OP and images are not displaying because of Bitcointalk's outdated forum design, it's just showing "invalid image". Because Sportsbet.io is our generous sponsor I'm sure it'll be a good idea to have it updated again, to save you time, I've re-uploaded all pictures on TalkImg from joker_josue and you can just copy my code and insert it into OP if you have time today or tomorrow:


Picture 1

Code:

[img]https://www.talkimg.com/images/2023/07/26/QfQPg.jpeg[/img]

Picture 2

Code:

[img]https://www.talkimg.com/images/2023/07/26/QfGrI.jpeg[/img]

Picture 3

Code:

[img]https://www.talkimg.com/images/2023/07/26/QfMWd.jpeg[/img]

[CLS63]

And @CLS63

I've checked OP and images are not displaying because of Bitcointalk's outdated forum design, it's just showing "invalid image". Because Sportsbet.io is our generous sponsor I'm sure it'll be a good idea to have it updated again, to save you time, I've re-uploaded all pictures on TalkImg from joker_josue and you can just copy my code and insert it into OP if you have time today or tomorrow:

Thank you, 1miau.    I haven't noticed that there has been a problem with the images recently. I have fixed all of them by using your code.


When it comes to Ricciardo and Tsunoda I think Ricciardo will have a more successful time period than his teammate in the rest of the season. There is a very visible gap between two drivers in terms of skills and experience. Ricciardo finished his first race at AlphaTauri ahead of Tsunoda already. He did it despite the crash at the beginning of the race.

I don't think Tsunoda can do better than Ricciardo as a result.

[tokeweed]

Spa, one of the most mighty circuits on the F1, i hope we can see another winner and not the same as always Max Verstappen.

One thing we need to notice, its a few weeks ago in Spa one young driver died again for a crash. I think he was for F3 or some minor categorie like that, really sad.

So i hope we can have a  race with safety.

Yeah, Spa is one of the most dangerous tracks in F1 even though a lot of people think Imola is the most dangerous, there are people who say Spa is more dangerous than Imola.  I think Imola only got its reputation as the 'most notorious' track because it's where Arton Senna crashed and died, RIP.

And imho, just from optics alone I think the most dangerous might be the street circuit at Azerbaijan. Lol.

Anyway, does anybody have some good value bets for the next race?  I'm all ears...  All I see is Stroll points finish at 1.95 and Alonso top 6 finish at 1.91.

[swogerino]

Spa, one of the most mighty circuits on the F1, i hope we can see another winner and not the same as always Max Verstappen.

One thing we need to notice, its a few weeks ago in Spa one young driver died again for a crash. I think he was for F3 or some minor categorie like that, really sad.

So i hope we can have a  race with safety.

Yeah, Spa is one of the most dangerous tracks in F1 even though a lot of people think Imola is the most dangerous, there are people who say Spa is more dangerous than Imola.  I think Imola only got its reputation as the 'most notorious' track because it's where Arton Senna crashed and died, RIP.

And imho, just from optics alone I think the most dangerous might be the street circuit at Azerbaijan. Lol.

Anyway, does anybody have some good value bets for the next race?  I'm all ears...  All I see is Stroll points finish at 1.95 and Alonso top 6 finish at 1.91.

I agree that Imola is much more dangerous than this track although I must admit some young drivers have died here as well if I am not mistaken so this too is a very dangerous track,however rarely we have seen fatal incidents here and with big dimensions like that of Imola where two drivers died the same weekend,first on qualifying on 1994 at Imola one German or Austrian driver which I don't remember the name now and the next day the legendary Ayrton Senna (for me the best driver of all times).

So for bets it will be difficult to predict anything right as this is over 7 km a lap which means is a very long track and in wet conditions nothing is true,so I would opt for a safety car yes and virtual safety car yes,the odds are not that good though.

[darxiaomi]

So for bets it will be difficult to predict anything right as this is over 7 km a lap which means is a very long track and in wet conditions nothing is true,so I would opt for a safety car yes and virtual safety car yes,the odds are not that good though.

First corner of Spa in the start of the race its always a high probability Safety Car. We can remember that mega crash a few years ago, with cars flying above other cars.

Rain its confirmed?, we are having a lot of wet conditions in the last races, not in the race itself, but yes in the whole weekend of the race.

[Spack17]

It is still seen as rain for the whole race weekend. Rain will absolutely make this track really dangerous. We have witnessed really sad incidents on this track due to bad weather conditions. I hope we don't see any serious crash this time. F1 cars are getting faster every year but safer at the same time thankfully. When it comes to who can win I don't doubt Verstappen at all. He had a huge domination last year in terms of taking the win, the pole position and the fastest lap all. 

[Slissy]

Hi guys i just read some news today..

Max Verstappen to take five-place Belgian GP grid penalty after Red Bull driver exceeds gearbox allowance.

World Championship leader Max Verstappen will receive a five-place grid penalty for Sunday's Belgian Grand Prix after exceeding his gearbox allowance for the 2023 Formula 1 season.

While the FIA has yet to officially confirm the gearbox change and resulting penalty, Sky Sports News has learned Red Bull have taken the decision

The penalty will apply to Sunday's race, for which Qualifying is taking place on Friday as Spa-Francorchamps hosts the third Sprint weekend of the season.

It means Verstappen will line up no higher than sixth on the grid for the Grand Prix.

Each F1 car is limited to four gearboxes over the season, and Verstappen is the first driver to require a fifth assembly this year.

Does that mean that he has no opportunity to start in pole position even if he wins qualifying today?

[tokeweed]

Does that mean that he has no opportunity to start in pole position even if he wins qualifying today?

^  If the 5 place grid penalty is confirmed then clearly he won't.  Lol.  But I don't think it will really change anything tho.  Red Bull has the fastest car on the grid and it'll prolly be racing for pole position by the 20th lap or so.    Everything about the gear box move is already calculated.

Let's see how the books adjust their lines tho.  If it's anything like 1.60 or better for Verstappen to win, better bet it! We won't have good lines for race winner for a long looong time til 2026.

[Spack17]

Hi guys i just read some news today..

Max Verstappen to take five-place Belgian GP grid penalty after Red Bull driver exceeds gearbox allowance.

World Championship leader Max Verstappen will receive a five-place grid penalty for Sunday's Belgian Grand Prix after exceeding his gearbox allowance for the 2023 Formula 1 season.

While the FIA has yet to officially confirm the gearbox change and resulting penalty, Sky Sports News has learned Red Bull have taken the decision

The penalty will apply to Sunday's race, for which Qualifying is taking place on Friday as Spa-Francorchamps hosts the third Sprint weekend of the season.

It means Verstappen will line up no higher than sixth on the grid for the Grand Prix.

Each F1 car is limited to four gearboxes over the season, and Verstappen is the first driver to require a fifth assembly this year.

Does that mean that he has no opportunity to start in pole position even if he wins qualifying today?

I was also not sure when I saw the same news and I found a note like this when I checked out Superbru's rules:



I guess not preferring Verstappen for pole position is going to be the rightest choice.

[casperBGD]

-snip

Let's see how the books adjust their lines tho.  If it's anything like 1.60 or better for Verstappen to win, better bet it! We won't have good lines for race winner for a long looong time til 2026.

doubt that it will be above @1.45 on Max to win, no matter starting position, it was similar to that after Hamilton unexpectedly took pole in Hungary
and in Hungary, Lewis took it on the track, so one could think he has what is needed to fight with Max, but obviously nobody has this year

but, grid penalty would bring much more interesting race, and less advantage for Max in the end, it will probably under 10 seconds in front of second driver at end
and much more overturns in the race

[buwaytress]

^

Currently markets have been unavailable for me all day on SB, ca't be bothered to check other books, was also hoping to see some good value with price boost, but I guess we'll just have to wait.

2/1 pre-boost is good value for me though, not 16/10.

P.S. What's he been doing with his gearboxes? Ha!

Tsunoda for me its a bad driver i said it countless times, i want to see how Ricciardo can do with this car, in the first race he made a very decent paper.

Even though he had my support all of last season, I've to concede this. Never entering my top 10 this season again, still wondering if Ricciardo glimpses is enough to make me reconsider AT though.

[swogerino]

Make sure you guys put your picks before today 17 PM Europe time as there is a new format,it is a Sprint race tomorrow so anyone not putting his picks before 17 PM Europe time today loses the EBP points which are not little,it is 2 points for just putting your picks early.I just saw this myself now as I had completely forgotten that this is a sprint race so sharing here to not create handicaps for people who are not informed about this and in a Friday we can easily lose our mind as we prepare for the weekend,so go ahead and put your picks in.

[LTU_btc]

Yeah, don't forget to make picks, there is less than 30 minutes remaining. When we such heavy rain, predicting qualification winner becomes very difficult, but still, better to do it if you don't want to miss getting EBP.
EDIT After my post weather changed fast, rain is over, we have sun and track is drying fast.

[darxiaomi]

Fuck i go out later from work and i miss the practice and also the qualy, the worst part, i dont put any picks, because i wanted to see the practice and after that select my picks with that information, but was too risky, i forgot to leave at least any picks before.

As far as i can see another pole for Max.

[casperBGD]

Yeah, don't forget to make picks, there is less than 30 minutes remaining.
~snip

it is a first time for me, but skipped that EarlyBRU points, so much to do today, and forgot that today is deadline for qualifications due to sprint
didn't get any reminder from Superbru either, not sure is that always the case, usually I have picks on time, so no reminder, only that 72 hours before

according to results, Max is having a podium, will that be changed eventually, since I don't see that in any results?

[swogerino]

Yeah, don't forget to make picks, there is less than 30 minutes remaining.
~snip

it is a first time for me, but skipped that EarlyBRU points, so much to do today, and forgot that today is deadline for qualifications due to sprint
didn't get any reminder from Superbru either, not sure is that always the case, usually I have picks on time, so no reminder, only that 72 hours before

according to results, Max is having a podium, will that be changed eventually, since I don't see that in any results?

Max was near 1 second faster than the second guy Leclerc and I doubt that in the Sprint race of tomorrow to have any surprises,unfortunately it is true,the new upgrades from Redbull could not show their performance in a slow and short track like that in Hungary but in here they made and extreme difference and I doubt anything or anyone to change that,I see Max winning this race too and the only thing stopping him will not be the rain,nor the Safety Car but only a crash or a mechanical failure,in all other cases it will be a boring race dominated by Redbull.