🏁🏎️ Sportsbet.io🏁 FORMULA 1 2024 Season🏁🏎️Prediction Pool Discussion Thread

[1miau]

It's Race Week meaning the Exclusive F1 Prediction Contest is LIVE @ Sportsbet.io 🏎️🏁 United States Grand Prix 🏁🏎️ Prediction Contest

I like this new format a lot better. 

+1
It's much more exciting to make a prediction, where we'll have more nuances to predict even if Verstappen dominates again.
Like Alonso Top 6 or Piastri podium.

Well that is one problem with the actual F1, you cant cut so much points in one race or in a few because, some positions are well know before the race, for example the winner and the pole sitter. Also we already know the 90% of the drivers who are gonna score points.

It just takes a big turn 1 crash, where several top teams are involved it and we'll have a surprising result.
Probably Austin is such a race, where a big turn 1 crash can happen but maybe Brazil (due to rain) is also a chance to have some position changes in our prediction contest.
You are right, that past races have been very similar (Verstappen win, top 10 positions 90% set) and only podium spots have been changing...

[1714199728]

1714199728

[1714199728]

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[Koal-84]

It's Race Week meaning the Exclusive F1 Prediction Contest is LIVE @ Sportsbet.io 🏎️🏁 United States Grand Prix 🏁🏎️ Prediction Contest

Thanks for the new contest and the new format, I think it's good this season Verstappen is dominating so much that it's already a bit difficult to guess, even in SuperBru the guesses are already similar for most.

Anyway, last year in Austin it was pretty even between Ferrari, Mercedes and RedBull but this year McLaren is definitely a hot tip for the podium.

Qualifying will be on Friday again because of the sprint race.

[slaman29]

^  Lol.  I man Verstappen could 'slow down' his ambition but he'll end up still winning because he has the best car and prolly he's the best driver this season.  He's miles ahead of the driver he was 4 years ago.  Still too aggro at some spots but more controlled and a tad below reckless.    But you know it's still there in his back pocket if given a good challenge.  Most drivers would prolly fold against Verstappen's aggressive nature except Hamilton and possibly Alonso.

I like this new format a lot better.  There's more stuff to think about and it's not just about who gets to post 'Verstappen, Verstappen, Verstappen, 10 secs' in the thread the fastest. 

Yeah when you get on a roll like that then it's all about breaking records, so the only "danger" is he tries too hard and makes a mistake but with all the others around him making mistakes instead it's a bad bet to go against him.

I like the new format too, gives late entries a fairer chance

Watch out for Brazil!!

[cryptofrka]

I like the new Prediction side competition format as well. Old 'Verstappen' answers did bring me 2 freebets already, but they were based on pure luck.
Now I have even less chance of actually winning, but at least answering (and calculating) is more fun.

[tokeweed]

^  Nice...  I think I won a free bet myself...  But that might be in the Multi Master.  Lol.  I'm trying to win a free bet in Superbru tho...  But it's hard.  Didn't realize F1 pools are way harder than football pools.  

^  Lol.  I man Verstappen could 'slow down' his ambition but he'll end up still winning because he has the best car and prolly he's the best driver this season.  He's miles ahead of the driver he was 4 years ago.  Still too aggro at some spots but more controlled and a tad below reckless.    But you know it's still there in his back pocket if given a good challenge.  Most drivers would prolly fold against Verstappen's aggressive nature except Hamilton and possibly Alonso.

I like this new format a lot better.  There's more stuff to think about and it's not just about who gets to post 'Verstappen, Verstappen, Verstappen, 10 secs' in the thread the fastest.  

Yeah when you get on a roll like that then it's all about breaking records, so the only "danger" is he tries too hard and makes a mistake but with all the others around him making mistakes instead it's a bad bet to go against him.

I like the new format too, gives late entries a fairer chance

Watch out for Brazil!!

Betting wise I would never make a bet for him at the lines the books are giving him for.  They have Verstappen at 1.23 to win the US GP.  Lol.  No thank you...  And it's funny because I think betting on a 5 to 1 underdog for Tim Elliott in UFC 294 holds less risk than betting on Verstappen at 1.23 who's supposed to have the race in the bag.  You just never know in F1.  :/

[swogerino]

^  Nice...  I think I won a free bet myself...  But that might be in the Multi Master.  Lol.  I'm trying to win a free bet in Superbru tho...  But it's hard.  Didn't realize F1 pools are way harder than football pools.  

^  Lol.  I man Verstappen could 'slow down' his ambition but he'll end up still winning because he has the best car and prolly he's the best driver this season.  He's miles ahead of the driver he was 4 years ago.  Still too aggro at some spots but more controlled and a tad below reckless.    But you know it's still there in his back pocket if given a good challenge.  Most drivers would prolly fold against Verstappen's aggressive nature except Hamilton and possibly Alonso.

I like this new format a lot better.  There's more stuff to think about and it's not just about who gets to post 'Verstappen, Verstappen, Verstappen, 10 secs' in the thread the fastest.  

Yeah when you get on a roll like that then it's all about breaking records, so the only "danger" is he tries too hard and makes a mistake but with all the others around him making mistakes instead it's a bad bet to go against him.

I like the new format too, gives late entries a fairer chance

Watch out for Brazil!!

Betting wise I would never make a bet for him at the lines the books are giving him for.  They have Verstappen at 1.23 to win the US GP.  Lol.  No thank you...  And it's funny because I think betting on a 5 to 1 underdog for Tim Elliott in UFC 294 holds less risk than betting on Verstappen at 1.23 who's supposed to have the race in the bag.  You just never know in F1.  :/

That is the beauty about F1 as you never know when the engine or a mechanical failure will let you down,or some other driver will crash into you or some dramatic changes to the weather can impact your race and taking all these variables in consideration that 1.23 odd looks really funny and low.

I think that we can make three bets on three other drivers who will have the odds well over 3 and this is better than betting everything on Verstappen especially now that he is already World Champion.

[1miau]

Betting wise I would never make a bet for him at the lines the books are giving him for.  They have Verstappen at 1.23 to win the US GP.  Lol.  No thank you...

 
I wouldn't call this a bad odd because imagine this odd for a Verstappen win at every race we had that season. Bet every race 1 mBTC on Verstappen and we would have made a very big profit.
Verstappen is just so extremely dominant, if he doesn't has a mechanical issue, he's extremely likely to win. And RedBull is a reliable car this season.
Even in rain, Verstappen is so much faster, like in Zandvoort, where he was 4 seconds faster compared to Perez very early in the race - on the same tires (intermediates).

Betting every race on Verstappen this season, even at just 1.23 odds (see below), would have been a big profit overally.

[boltz]

The race for 3rd spot in Constructors Championship is far from over and to be honest , I think McLaren has the best car right now compared with Ferrari and Aston Martin.

Standings are : 3. Ferrari 298 points , 4. Aston Martin 230 , 5. McLaren 219 points.

I also think Piastri will break Lewis Hamilton rookie debut from 2007 as he needs 26 more points and he still has 5 races to go and a decent car to do it and maybe with a bit of luck , his first victory will come by the end of the season as he showed he is capable to actually lead and win a race.

[casperBGD]

The race for 3rd spot in Constructors Championship is far from over and to be honest , I think McLaren has the best car right now compared with Ferrari and Aston Martin.

Standings are : 3. Ferrari 298 points , 4. Aston Martin 230 , 5. McLaren 219 points.

I also think Piastri will break Lewis Hamilton rookie debut from 2007 as he needs 26 more points and he still has 5 races to go and a decent car to do it and maybe with a bit of luck , his first victory will come by the end of the season as he showed he is capable to actually lead and win a race.

agree on first point, just look at points in last five races, and McLaren is pruned to reach Aston Martin this weekend, and Ferrari till the end
regarding Piastri, he is having great races last month, but it is hard to expect a win over Max, better drivers are struggling to do that

not sure, but IMO Norris is a bit better than Piastri, although they are really good pair for McLaren and could do some magic next season, if all things remain as it is

~snip
Betting every race on Verstappen this season, even at just 1.23 odds, would have been a big profit overally.

you need five races to cover one that he didn't won, too much for my sense
and he basically lost 3, won 14, so overall a small plus, if any, betting on him

[CLS63]

The race for 3rd spot in Constructors Championship is far from over and to be honest , I think McLaren has the best car right now compared with Ferrari and Aston Martin.

Standings are : 3. Ferrari 298 points , 4. Aston Martin 230 , 5. McLaren 219 points.

I also think Piastri will break Lewis Hamilton rookie debut from 2007 as he needs 26 more points and he still has 5 races to go and a decent car to do it and maybe with a bit of luck , his first victory will come by the end of the season as he showed he is capable to actually lead and win a race.

26 more points in 5 races... This doesn't actually look unlikely when we consider his recent performance. Especially the weekend in Qatar was amazing for Piastri as he won the sprint race and finished the main race on podium as well. Among the remaining 5 race weekends there are sprint races as well in 2 of them - United States and Brazil.

It shouldn't be too difficult for Piastri to break this debut point record of Hamilton as long as he is consistent.

[1miau]

~snip
Betting every race on Verstappen this season, even at just 1.23 odds, would have been a big profit overally.

you need five races to cover one that he didn't won, too much for my sense
and he basically lost 3, won 14, so overall a small plus, if any, betting on him

You are right, I've calculated it now and it's only a small profit.
But in reality, odds have been much higher than 1.23 for the first half of the season, so a profit would have been quite considerable, to bet on Max every race.
I've edited my post above to adjust it.

[slaman29]

That is the beauty about F1 as you never know when the engine or a mechanical failure will let you down,or some other driver will crash into you or some dramatic changes to the weather can impact your race and taking all these variables in consideration that 1.23 odd looks really funny and low.

I think that we can make three bets on three other drivers who will have the odds well over 3 and this is better than betting everything on Verstappen especially now that he is already World Champion.

True. I know "anything" can happen in football as well but you rarely get total knockout like a team gets cancelled unless they are Barca or Juventus getting punished for scandals lol

But in F1 you can have best driver KO'd out randomly or deliberately and that's where the odds come in nicely

GL everyone don't forget picks today.

[coinlocket$]

2023 F1 United States Grand Prix - Free Practice Results (1)
Pos    Driver    Nat.   Team    Time
1   Max Verstappen   NED   Oracle Red Bull Racing   1m35.912s
2   Charles Leclerc   MON   Scuderia Ferrari   1m36.068s
3   Lewis Hamilton   GBR   Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 Team   1m36.193s
4   Sergio Perez   MEX   Oracle Bull Racing   1m36.212s
5   Kevin Magnussen   DEN   MoneyGram Haas F1 Team   1m36.472s
6   George Russell   GBR   Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 Team   1m36.474s
7   Alex Albon   THA   Williams Racing   1m36.492s
8   Carlos Sainz   ESP   Scuderia Ferrari   1m36.533s
9   Nico Hulkenberg   GER   MoneyGram Haas F1 Team   1m36.702s
10   Pierre Gasly   FRA   BWT Alpine F1 Team   1m36.705s
11   Logan Sargeant   USA   Williams Racing   1m36.987s
12   Esteban Ocon   FRA   BWT Alpine F1 Team   1m37.066s
13   Yuki Tsunoda   JPN   Scuderia AlphaTauri    1m37.104s
14   Liam Lawson   NZL   Scuderia AlphaTauri   1m37.154s
15   Lando Norris   GBR   McLaren F1 Team   1m37.256s
16   Zhou Guanyu   CHN   Alfa Romeo F1 Team Stake   1m37.418s
17   Valtteri Bottas   FIN   Alfa Romeo F1 Team Stake   1m37.517s
18   Fernando Alonso   ESP   Aston Martin Aramco Cognizant Formula One Team   1m37.840s
19   Oscar Piastri   AUS   McLaren F1 Team   1m38.420s
20   Lance Stroll   CAN   Aston Martin Aramco Cognizant Formula One Team   1m39.940s

Results of the 1st hour.

Still unclear who is the favorite for the pole

It seems a fight between 3 teams


Source: https://www.crash.net/f1/results/1038556/1/f1-united-states-grand-prix-2023-friday-practice-results

[CLS63]

The qualifying session has started and for now Ferrari drivers look really solid. I'm still expecting Verstappen to take pole position though but maybe Ferraris can make some difficulties for him here. If you remember the qualifying session on this track last season Sainz took pole position and Leclerc also left behind Verstappen.

Maybe once again the lap times would be really close even if Verstappen takes pole. There were rumours like Stroll was going to be here this weekend but we see him now in the session.  

Alonso has shockingy been eliminated in Q1 already by the way. I wasn't really expecting this to happen so let's see if he can make up for it in the race.

[coinlocket$]

The qualifying session has started and for now Ferrari drivers look really solid. I'm still expecting Verstappen to take pole position though but maybe Ferraris can make some difficulties for him here. If you remember the qualifying session on this track last season Sainz took pole position and Leclerc also left behind Verstappen.

Maybe once again the lap times would be really close even if Verstappen takes pole. There were rumours like Stroll was going to be here this weekend but we see him now in the session.  

Alonso has shockingy been eliminated in Q1 already by the way. I wasn't really expecting this to happen so let's see if he can make up for it in the race.

Few minutes left.

Ferraris, Hamilton, and Verstappen are very close for the pole-position.

The race will be another thing with the RBR using less tyres during the race but it is always nice to beat them.

[CLS63]

Few minutes left.

Ferraris, Hamilton, and Verstappen are very close for the pole-position.

The race will be another thing with the RBR using less tyres during the race but it is always nice to beat them.

It was a horrible Q3 for Verstappen. Because his last lap was deleted due to being out of track limits. His last sector was really incredible despite losing time in the first sector. He was going to take the pole from Leclerc's hands by only 0.005s. But that deletion resulted in 6th place for Verstappen. 

I must still admit that it was hell of a drive by Leclerc as well. He also deserved the pole with that clean lap. The qualifying session was enjoyable and hopefully the race would be the same as well.

[swogerino]

Few minutes left.

Ferraris, Hamilton, and Verstappen are very close for the pole-position.

The race will be another thing with the RBR using less tyres during the race but it is always nice to beat them.

It was a horrible Q3 for Verstappen. Because his last lap was deleted due to being out of track limits. His last sector was really incredible despite losing time in the first sector. He was going to take the pole from Leclerc's hands by only 0.005s. But that deletion resulted in 6th place for Verstappen. 

I must still admit that it was hell of a drive by Leclerc as well. He also deserved the pole with that clean lap. The qualifying session was enjoyable and hopefully the race would be the same as well.

That says it all then as I didn't wait 11 PM European time to watch the qualifying thinking that Verstappen would have an easy win there.When I saw the standings today in the morning I thought that maybe his ego to keep doing great even after winning the title is slowing down little by little,I see that I am mistaken now and most likely tomorrow will be a great race with so many good drivers in front of him in a difficult track like this one.

The odd should be way more than 1.23 right now and I think this is a good opportunity to bet on him to win some extra money for the weekend.

[slaman29]

Pole Ferrari but Max in 6th is nothing bad for him. I would be surprised if Leclerc still finishes Top 3, no worry.

Max odds to win: 1.54 strange I can't see price boost for F1

Betting every race on Verstappen this season, even at just 1.23 odds (see below), would have been a big profit overally.

It's same as betting on City every season. They lose so few times that overall, you're still in profit. I don't think now is wise time to start though unless you believe Max will continue this form in the new season because there are too few races left to afford one Max mistake. Only 5 races left now so if he doesn't win one race in this season you need 5 wins just to cover that loss as it's all 1.2 now (except today obviously).

[tokeweed]

^  Might be good to check all the odds for Verstappen this season and see the results if somebody bet 100 bucks on him at every race.  Pretty sure the books also figured something out and juiced these lines so much that it becomes -EV and a slightly losing proposition if you bet on him in all races this season.  I mean if you really could come in ahead with 10 bucks per 100 then the books would def be leaking money there...  I don't think they would allow it.

[CLS63]

It was a horrible Q3 for Verstappen. Because his last lap was deleted due to being out of track limits. His last sector was really incredible despite losing time in the first sector. He was going to take the pole from Leclerc's hands by only 0.005s. But that deletion resulted in 6th place for Verstappen.  

I must still admit that it was hell of a drive by Leclerc as well. He also deserved the pole with that clean lap. The qualifying session was enjoyable and hopefully the race would be the same as well.

That says it all then as I didn't wait 11 PM European time to watch the qualifying thinking that Verstappen would have an easy win there.When I saw the standings today in the morning I thought that maybe his ego to keep doing great even after winning the title is slowing down little by little,I see that I am mistaken now and most likely tomorrow will be a great race with so many good drivers in front of him in a difficult track like this one.

The odd should be way more than 1.23 right now and I think this is a good opportunity to bet on him to win some extra money for the weekend.

Verstappen's odds have been increased by bookmakers - but only to 1.57.    However it is still not that bad actually. I believe it is good enough to add it to a parlay full of bets you trust. We are talking about Verstappen here in the end.    Norris and Hamilton have 6.50 while Leclerc has 7.00. I understand this though because Ferrari are mostly better in qualifying compared to race performance.

By the way I don't think starting from a little behind is a big deal for Verstappen. I believe he can still win by a big margin.