FIBA Basketball World Cup 2023 - Betting and Discussions

[Yogee]

Do you guys think the current odds will change drastically during the next 3 weeks? I mean, I know it's possible, but how much or how little do you think the change is likely to be?

Probably not much change in the top 5 favored teams. There are still countries who has not finalized their roster if I'm not mistaken so odd changes will likely happen depending on who makes the final cut. The only other situation it could happen is when key players suddenly pull out for whatever reason.

[tusandii]

Do you guys think the current odds will change drastically during the next 3 weeks? I mean, I know it's possible, but how much or how little do you think the change is likely to be?

Probably not much change in the top 5 favored teams. There are still countries who has not finalized their roster if I'm not mistaken so odd changes will likely happen depending on who makes the final cut. The only other situation it could happen is when key players suddenly pull out for whatever reason.

The top 5 teams are very unlikely to change because they already have a more mature and competitive game in every match and for key players I don't think they will just back down for any reason because they can change everything for the team that has them.
Precisely for the middle and lower teams, I'm sure there will still be some changes and of course there will be many surprises that we will see in the future.

For the top teams, it seems that the ones that will stand out the most in the competition are the US and Spain, who won the championship before becoming champions at FIBA 2019.

[wheelz1200]

I finally found a schedule for the tune-up games but it's just for the USA team.
Here it is.

Monday, Aug. 7: USA 117, Puerto Rico 74
Saturday, Aug. 12: Slovenia (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1)
Sunday, Aug. 13: Spain (3:30 p.m. ET, Fox)
Friday, Aug. 18: Greece (12 p.m. ET, FS1)
Sunday, Aug. 20: Germany (12 p.m. ET, Fox)

https://www.nba.com/news/2023-usab-exhibition-schedule

The first one was done and they blew out the Puerto Rico basketball team. Well, that's obvious given how strong and young the players of the USA are.
Tremont Waters will badly need a lot of help from his teammates if they want to advance. Sure, this is just an exhibition but it can already show how much of a mismatch they are to other teams if no other player can score especially against Serbia in their Group.

Spain is also not to be messed with Santi Aldama making his debut. They may not have the Gasol brothers anymore but I won't underestimate the power of this guy combined with the Hernangomez brothers.

17 more days. Let's just enjoy the exhibition matches.

won't.

The US squad looks great.  I like the squad Kerr put out there with my guy jalen brunson running the floor.  Mikael bridges (his college running mate), jaren Jackson, etc.  They are young and these guys look ready to ball.  I kind of like not having the senior ayers on the floor for this tournament.  Looking forward to watching competitive ball.

[harizen]

Do you guys think the current odds will change drastically during the next 3 weeks? I mean, I know it's possible, but how much or how little do you think the change is likely to be?

I'm sure there will be no change of odds until the official tip-off regardless if a team is Favorite or not.

Not expecting major changes in the few weeks for the entire participating teams that's why if you want to consider placing money, you can do it now. Let me guess, are you considering placing a bet for the outrights? Obviously, the odds of changes will be expected only after those first games.

I believe that in the end, there will be another face-off between the US and Spain. However, I expect the US to come out on top.

Team USA will always be the team to beat but I'm expecting a change this year.

[Sithara007]

Team USA will always be the team to beat but I'm expecting a change this year.

Remember last edition? Back in 2019, the Americans failed to even enter the semi-finals. France managed to defeat them by a margin of 89-79 during the quarter-finals, and then they lost the 5th place playoff against Serbia by 94-89. In the end, they finished at 7th position, even behind teams like Czech Republic and Australia. The squad back then didn't had a lot of the NBA stars, but even then they were the favorites to lift the trophy. Once again, USA will be the favorites this time, but I am not that sure whether they will end up as the champions.

[AHOYBRAUSE]

Team USA will always be the team to beat but I'm expecting a change this year.

Remember last edition? Back in 2019, the Americans failed to even enter the semi-finals. France managed to defeat them by a margin of 89-79 during the quarter-finals, and then they lost the 5th place playoff against Serbia by 94-89. In the end, they finished at 7th position, even behind teams like Czech Republic and Australia. The squad back then didn't had a lot of the NBA stars, but even then they were the favorites to lift the trophy. Once again, USA will be the favorites this time, but I am not that sure whether they will end up as the champions.

Well they still have a strong team, don't underestimate them. This team is much stronger than the 2019 one.
The difference is, with Canada they will have a team with almost the same talent.

The advantage of the European teams is always they are more familiar with the rules, because FIBA and NBA have quite some differences. Sometimes it's a little tough for NBA players to adapt to those.
Still talent wise the cup can only go to USA or Canada, there is no question. They must have a really bad day, or the other team a very good day, to get beaten.

[Sithara007]

Well they still have a strong team, don't underestimate them. This team is much stronger than the 2019 one.
The difference is, with Canada they will have a team with almost the same talent.

The advantage of the European teams is always they are more familiar with the rules, because FIBA and NBA have quite some differences. Sometimes it's a little tough for NBA players to adapt to those.
Still talent wise the cup can only go to USA or Canada, there is no question. They must have a really bad day, or the other team a very good day, to get beaten.

Obviously United States will be the overwhelming favorites, but I am not going to discount the European teams. It was France who kicked them out of the tournament last time. And they lost to Serbia as well.  This time, apart from USA and Canada, we have Australia and Slovenia as the next strongest teams as per odds from different sportsbooks. France, Spain and Greece are also in contention. But the gap between USA and other teams is too huge. USA is at -170, while the second ranked Australia is being given odds of +850.

[AHOYBRAUSE]

Well they still have a strong team, don't underestimate them. This team is much stronger than the 2019 one.
The difference is, with Canada they will have a team with almost the same talent.

The advantage of the European teams is always they are more familiar with the rules, because FIBA and NBA have quite some differences. Sometimes it's a little tough for NBA players to adapt to those.
Still talent wise the cup can only go to USA or Canada, there is no question. They must have a really bad day, or the other team a very good day, to get beaten.

Obviously United States will be the overwhelming favorites, but I am not going to discount the European teams. It was France who kicked them out of the tournament last time. And they lost to Serbia as well.  This time, apart from USA and Canada, we have Australia and Slovenia as the next strongest teams as per odds from different sportsbooks. France, Spain and Greece are also in contention. But the gap between USA and other teams is too huge. USA is at -170, while the second ranked Australia is being given odds of +850.

I don't see those odds reflect the real chances. Canada is way too high in my opinion. Tonight they will play my German team in both teams second test so far. This will paint a slightly better picture of what both teams are capable of.

Since the odds are so good (I didn't expect that) I will make a small wager on Canada, I honestly think this has a lot of value!
Slovenia didn't look so good in their 3rd test as well. After losing vs Greece twice (without Giannis) they barely beat Montenegro at home last night, and only because Luka had a monster game. I know they have Luka but based on what I have seen so far this 1 man team can't go far in the tournament.

[gagux123]

Those two teams surely have an impressive bunch, and pretty much because of the pretty much well-known players that they have as you can say for me I am more interested in the Canadian team and they surely have the defending champion player the A2 players for the Denver Nuggets Jamal Murray, surely for these team, I am curious on the reformed Dillon Brooks

Yes, absolutely!
I have no doubt that the Canadian team has excellent players.
Well... for me, USA, Canada and Australia are one of the favorite teams to win this world cup.

[Natalim]

Well they still have a strong team, don't underestimate them. This team is much stronger than the 2019 one.
The difference is, with Canada they will have a team with almost the same talent.

The advantage of the European teams is always they are more familiar with the rules, because FIBA and NBA have quite some differences. Sometimes it's a little tough for NBA players to adapt to those.
Still talent wise the cup can only go to USA or Canada, there is no question. They must have a really bad day, or the other team a very good day, to get beaten.

Obviously United States will be the overwhelming favorites, but I am not going to discount the European teams. It was France who kicked them out of the tournament last time. And they lost to Serbia as well.  This time, apart from USA and Canada, we have Australia and Slovenia as the next strongest teams as per odds from different sportsbooks. France, Spain and Greece are also in contention. But the gap between USA and other teams is too huge. USA is at -170, while the second ranked Australia is being given odds of +850.

I don't see those odds reflect the real chances. Canada is way too high in my opinion. Tonight they will play my German team in both teams second test so far. This will paint a slightly better picture of what both teams are capable of.

That could mean Canada is undervalued because of high odds. It's good if those odds would reflect the same on sportsbooks so we can take advantage of it based on our belief. In my opinion, the USA is very popular, so most of the time they are overvalued by the bookmakers. It's really up to us to evaluate and bet on a team that we believe has good value and has a good chance of winning.

The USA is composed of young NBA stars, while other national teams have been playing with great chemistry already with veteran players on a team.

Since the odds are so good (I didn't expect that) I will make a small wager on Canada, I honestly think this has a lot of value!
Slovenia didn't look so good in their 3rd test as well. After losing vs Greece twice (without Giannis) they barely beat Montenegro at home last night, and only because Luka had a monster game. I know they have Luka but based on what I have seen so far this 1 man team can't go far in the tournament.

Why would you base it on the odds? If you believe Canada will win, then taking +1400 is a no-brainer.

[AHOYBRAUSE]

Well they still have a strong team, don't underestimate them. This team is much stronger than the 2019 one.
The difference is, with Canada they will have a team with almost the same talent.

The advantage of the European teams is always they are more familiar with the rules, because FIBA and NBA have quite some differences. Sometimes it's a little tough for NBA players to adapt to those.
Still talent wise the cup can only go to USA or Canada, there is no question. They must have a really bad day, or the other team a very good day, to get beaten.

Obviously United States will be the overwhelming favorites, but I am not going to discount the European teams. It was France who kicked them out of the tournament last time. And they lost to Serbia as well.  This time, apart from USA and Canada, we have Australia and Slovenia as the next strongest teams as per odds from different sportsbooks. France, Spain and Greece are also in contention. But the gap between USA and other teams is too huge. USA is at -170, while the second ranked Australia is being given odds of +850.

I don't see those odds reflect the real chances. Canada is way too high in my opinion. Tonight they will play my German team in both teams second test so far. This will paint a slightly better picture of what both teams are capable of.

That could mean Canada is undervalued because of high odds. It's good if those odds would reflect the same on sportsbooks so we can take advantage of it based on our belief. In my opinion, the USA is very popular, so most of the time they are overvalued by the bookmakers. It's really up to us to evaluate and bet on a team that we believe has good value and has a good chance of winning.

The USA is composed of young NBA stars, while other national teams have been playing with great chemistry already with veteran players on a team.

Since the odds are so good (I didn't expect that) I will make a small wager on Canada, I honestly think this has a lot of value!
Slovenia didn't look so good in their 3rd test as well. After losing vs Greece twice (without Giannis) they barely beat Montenegro at home last night, and only because Luka had a monster game. I know they have Luka but based on what I have seen so far this 1 man team can't go far in the tournament.

Why would you base it on the odds? If you believe Canada will win, then taking +1400 is a no-brainer.

Ahmm, yes. That's exactly what I said. Because the odds are so high I will bet on Canada. 
I never said I believe they will win, I just think they are a top 2 team. Besides USA there is no roster with that much quality. And for a top 2 team, 15:1 or whatever these odds mean, is a great deal.

If they perform well maybe I can also cash out with a profit once the tournament progresses.
It's gonna be a tight race but I see them to have an advantage over almost every team ranked higher than them. This is a "win now" situation and they want to make the best of their chances.

[Distinctin]

Ahmm, yes. That's exactly what I said. Because the odds are so high I will bet on Canada.  
I never said I believe they will win, I just think they are a top 2 team. Besides USA there is no roster with that much quality. And for a top 2 team, 15:1 or whatever these odds mean, is a great deal.

If they perform well maybe I can also cash out with a profit once the tournament progresses.
It's gonna be a tight race but I see them to have an advantage over almost every team ranked higher than them. This is a "win now" situation and they want to make the best of their chances.

Don't underestimate Canada or other teams aside from USA. When we examine the history of the FIBA World Cup championships, the USA has only won 2 out of the last 6 FIBA World Cups. Therefore, it's not guaranteed that they will win this year's championship.

As we can see in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIBA_Basketball_World_Cup

1998-R Yugoslavia
2002-R Yugoslavia
2006-Spain
2010- USA
2014-USA
2019-SPAIN

Eric Gordon was allowed and given permission by FIBA to represent the Bahamas. He played with team USA before and even got the world championship. This may not that be much for some teams are he's likely pass his prime but he could be a good boost to the team.
News: Eric Gordon cleared to play with Bahamas despite suiting up with Team USA
          Suns Guard Eric Gordon Officially With Bahamas National Team

He is no longer needed on Team USA as they are acquiring young superstars. It's good that he can now assist the Bahamas in their campaign.

In the current ranking (https://www.fiba.basketball/rankingmen), the Bahamas is placed 56th. Even if he plays, it's unlikely that the Bahamas would win the FIBA World Cup or defeat Team USA.

[danherbias07]

Do you guys think the current odds will change drastically during the next 3 weeks? I mean, I know it's possible, but how much or how little do you think the change is likely to be?

I believe that in the end, there will be another face-off between the US and Spain. However, I expect the US to come out on top.

Don't expect much of a change. But when the winners of the Groups are decided that's when you might see some changes. Although, the odds will have a lot of change so it won't be that profitable anymore unlike doing the outrights now.

The US squad looks great.  I like the squad Kerr put out there with my guy jalen brunson running the floor.  Mikael bridges (his college running mate), jaren Jackson, etc.  They are young and these guys look ready to ball.  I kind of like not having the senior ayers on the floor for this tournament.  Looking forward to watching competitive ball.

They will be the toughest customer of the strong European teams. In terms of speed, it will be hard to equal the young players that were sent by the USA. Just stopping Anthony Edwards is impossible. It will be hard to find a defender who has the same agility as him and strength so I won't detail the other players anymore.  

Remember last edition? Back in 2019, the Americans failed to even enter the semi-finals. France managed to defeat them by a margin of 89-79 during the quarter-finals, and then they lost the 5th place playoff against Serbia by 94-89. In the end, they finished at 7th position, even behind teams like Czech Republic and Australia. The squad back then didn't had a lot of the NBA stars, but even then they were the favorites to lift the trophy. Once again, USA will be the favorites this time, but I am not that sure whether they will end up as the champions.

As I said, one of the toughest customers of the European teams. They might actually finish as the champions this year after failing to get it the last time.
Spain is not that tough anymore without the Gasol brothers but after watching them play in the Eurobasket, I still believe they can make the USA play on the highest level, they will give them a heck of a game that will not be forgotten.
Also, let's not forget about Canada, Slovenia, and Greece.

This is a tune-up game and Serbia might win this even without Jokic as there are new players that could fill his spot and that odds is somewhat juicy AFAIC while Poland is a no push-over so i won't be surprise if both Serbia and Poland will win on tomorrow's friendly.

The last time I bet was Russia against Iran and I took the -4.5 for Russia, luckily it won. I don't take friendly games bets that are too close. Again, I am betting for Russia against Iran one more time today.

[passwordnow]

Eric Gordon was allowed and given permission by FIBA to represent the Bahamas. He played with team USA before and even got the world championship. This may not that be much for some teams are he's likely pass his prime but he could be a good boost to the team.
News: Eric Gordon cleared to play with Bahamas despite suiting up with Team USA
          Suns Guard Eric Gordon Officially With Bahamas National Team

[rhomelmabini]

I think for Group A the Dominican Republic team was likely in a good odds considering they have Towns, Quinones, and Minaya. Not expecting that much to have the spot for Philippines in this group but having JC will likely be a nuisance to other teams.

Do you guys think the current odds will change drastically during the next 3 weeks? I mean, I know it's possible, but how much or how little do you think the change is likely to be?

I believe that in the end, there will be another face-off between the US and Spain. However, I expect the US to come out on top.

I think it will with the ongoing friendly matches, for sure bookies will likely to adapt what was the outcome on it. I don't know if it's drastic but for sure there will some changes.

[danherbias07]

Eric Gordon was allowed and given permission by FIBA to represent the Bahamas. He played with team USA before and even got the world championship. This may not that be much for some teams are he's likely pass his prime but he could be a good boost to the team.
News: Eric Gordon cleared to play with Bahamas despite suiting up with Team USA
          Suns Guard Eric Gordon Officially With Bahamas National Team

That's good news for the Bahamas team. I've read this somewhere too but thank you for providing the source.

Eric Gordon already played for Team USA at the 2010 FIBA World Cup averaging 8.6 points per game, but according to 10th Year Seniors USA Basketball granted Gordon’s release and FIBA approved “his change of country representation due to Article 22 of its internal regulations”.

https://www.eurohoops.net/en/national-teams/1537379/eric-gordon-bahamas-olympic-pre-qualifying-tournament/

Let's also take a good look at the roster of one of the favorites in this year's FIBA.
Team Canada.
https://ftw.usatoday.com/lists/canada-fiba-world-cup-shai-gilgeous-alexander-jamal-murray-rj-barrett
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
RJ Barrett
Dillon Brooks
Lu Dort
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Kelly Olynyk
Dwight Powell
Thomas Scrubb
Melvin Ejim
Phil Scrubb
Zach Edey
Trae Bell-Haynes
Kyle Alexander

It's a tough team although they lost against the Germans at their friendly game. When it comes to defense I can see a lot of players who are good at it. With offense, they will mostly rely on SGA and I think that's a high percentage to score at every possession.
Germany on the other hand is so strong with the Wagner brother leading the offense.

[Sithara007]

Eric Gordon was allowed and given permission by FIBA to represent the Bahamas. He played with team USA before and even got the world championship. This may not that be much for some teams are he's likely pass his prime but he could be a good boost to the team.
News: Eric Gordon cleared to play with Bahamas despite suiting up with Team USA
          Suns Guard Eric Gordon Officially With Bahamas National Team

This happens very frequently in Basketball. In order to perform well, countries all around the world rope in American players and then naturalize them and give them passports. Same has happened with Eric Gordon. He was born in Indianapolis and doesn't have any connection with Bahamas. Before he switched to that country n 7th August, in all probability he didn't even visited that country once. This puts other nations who can't afford to purchase American players at a disadvantage. I believe that FIBA do have strict limits on the number of naturalized players who can be included in the squad. But even then, this is not a good precedent.

[AHOYBRAUSE]

Eric Gordon was allowed and given permission by FIBA to represent the Bahamas. He played with team USA before and even got the world championship. This may not that be much for some teams are he's likely pass his prime but he could be a good boost to the team.
News: Eric Gordon cleared to play with Bahamas despite suiting up with Team USA
          Suns Guard Eric Gordon Officially With Bahamas National Team

This happens very frequently in Basketball. In order to perform well, countries all around the world rope in American players and then naturalize them and give them passports. Same has happened with Eric Gordon. He was born in Indianapolis and doesn't have any connection with Bahamas. Before he switched to that country n 7th August, in all probability he didn't even visited that country once. This puts other nations who can't afford to purchase American players at a disadvantage. I believe that FIBA do have strict limits on the number of naturalized players who can be included in the squad. But even then, this is not a good precedent.

I wonder why it is so easy to naturalize them.
In Germany, if we want to do that with a player, this player must have some sort of family history in Germany. They were talking about giving Austin Reaves the German passport because one of his grandmothers was born there.

So that's a legit reason.
When team USW came knocking though he quickly forgot about his "strong desire to play for team Germany", hahah. Quite some nice gesture.

Why Gordon gets to play for the DR, no idea.

[danherbias07]

I wonder why it is so easy to naturalize them.
In Germany, if we want to do that with a player, this player must have some sort of family history in Germany. They were talking about giving Austin Reaves the German passport because one of his grandmothers was born there.

So that's a legit reason.
When team USW came knocking though he quickly forgot about his "strong desire to play for team Germany", hahah. Quite some nice gesture.

Why Gordon gets to play for the DR, no idea.

Oh, I didn't know that about Austin Reaves. Perhaps we really do have this kind of case when it comes to naturalization. Somehow I find this thing tricky and I don't really understand how they decide on these things.
Jordan Clarkson also had the same issue before he could play in the Asian Games. Passport issue. They won't let him play for the Philippines because he had been using a US passport until it was proven before the game that he is actually using a PH passport.
They should really make these things clear as it might help balance the league for players that actually have roots from another country, I mean it will make the game more fun.

Speaking of Germany. Here is the complete list of their roster recently twitted (X'ed  ) by FIBA.
https://twitter.com/FIBAWC/status/1689609923817074688?s=20

Look how strong that is. Terrifying lineup. The Wagner Brothers is where I am expecting a lot, they had been playing good basketball in Orlando Magic.

[OgNasty]

It’s too bad Andrew Wiggins isn’t on the Canadian team. They could use him.

I haven’t looked at the odds on this but you have to assume that the United States pulls out a win in the Finals right? From what I’ve been hearing about Kerr and his utilization of small ball to create matchup nightmares for the other teams it seems like they’re expecting the USA to be a lock.