I am not sure whether your framework is good Pi-network314159, because there could be some questions regarding how many coins you have
I am inperfect, striving to accumulate as much as possible from when i have realise my mistakes. I explained it earlier in the dip and HODL thread, that I made some mistakes regarding wrong investment and ever since then I have been accumulating and never want to miss out because I have understand the importance of HODLing for a long time. here was my reply after my mistake.
click here.from hence I have decided not to fall for cheap scam shitcoins for short term profit. I may not have enough in my portfolio in regard to your question, but like you always say we should start with what we can afford invest that will not affect us by not overdoing it. I know the way I sounded looks like one who may have accumulated alot of btc, but I was saying that in anticipation towards my experience, and would never want any body to go through that part again.
I was not necessarily directing my comment specifically at you and/or your situation, and largely my attention had been drawn to your statements that generally seemed to imply that how long someone had been in bitcoin is going to end up establishing what kinds of options that s/he has available, and surely I was trying to point out that the amount of coins that anyone had been able to accumulate would also serve as a pretty important factor, so I was not necessarily disagreeing with your overall ideas, but I just thought that you might have been making too many generalizations in the comparison of longer term bitcoiners to newer folks, and surely there can be some folks who are also already experienced in investing prior to coming to bitcoin, including some folks who have way more discretionary income than others, yet some folks will also have a lot of advantages in regards to their potential to profit from bitcoin, but even those advantages might not cause them to allow bitcoin to advantage them if they fail/refuse to act in terms of establishing a bitcoin position and maintaining it.
There are also no guarantees that bitcoin will continue to serve as a transfer of wealth from the no coiners to the coiners, so each of us has to take responsibility over however, much we choose to invest into bitcoin and the extent to which we might hedge in terms of having investments into other assets - or at what point we might diversify into other assets, especially if we might be both new to investing and also new to bitcoin, there surely would be nothing wrong with starting out by ONLY investing into bitcoin and cash and without having any other investments until after some time of building an bitcoin investment portfolio or perhaps some circumstances change in which views upon bitcoin change to cause changes in perspective regarding how to allocate new money.. or even to reallocate how much is invested in bitcoin as compared to other places (not referring to shitcoins here), if some folks make those kinds of choices (which may or may not end up playing out as correct choices).
that will see them to gaining better in the future. It's a mentality something that needs the right orientation or some sort of massive reorientation to bringing such individuals out of those short termed mindset, and I guess this kind of discussion is really helping to shape the right narrative for short sighted investors. And again, most people find it difficult to invest in Thier future in a manner that they might not necessarily see quick returns and so regardless of the prospect the future holds for long term investors, it doesn't get easy for them to shift thier mindset to focus more about accumilating for the long term.
Reorientation is good to chanel traders or short term investors focus on the right part , but the matter is how many is ready to follow the right part? If I where some orientators I wouldn't want to border myself educating people whom are not really ready to learn, because it's like pouring water in a basket. But what really matters is just to pass the information across to people who are willing to learn because not all are really ready to learn. But I believe this discussion will change the narrative of some people who maybe ready to learn, just as you said.
I would suggest that a basic perception is that everyone should be in accumulation mode until they have reached a state of overaccumulation, so in that regard, you are ONLY able to sell once you have assessed your own situation as being in an overaccumulation status, so if you sell you are not selling in order to be able to buy back cheaper.. you are selling because you have already concluded that you have more than you need; however, if the BTC price ends up dropping you could use proceeds from your sales to buy back.. but you are not expecting or needing to buy back, since perhaps the amount that you sell is ONLY going to be a relatively small amount of your stash that is part of the overaccumulation amount.. since you have already assessed that you have more than enough BTC.
sure you are absolutely right. accumulation process need to be continued to a point when even if you sell some of you stash, it wouldn't affect your accumulating process anymore or would not border to accumulate because you have enough.
Part of the problem in regards to starting to sell prior to reaching a state of overaccumulation is that you likely would be buying out of one hand and selling out of the other, which sometimes can end up being quite ambiguous behaviors if you are starting to engage in such practices prior towards your reaching a state of overaccumulation.
So personally, I have difficulties attempting to define how anyone would know whether they have reached such overaccumulation status.. so part of the way that I had ended up calculating it for myself, is that in my selling on the way up, I have always sold ONLY such a small amount of BTC that I would not expect to be able to buy it back, so there can be ways to calculate such formulas.. but it also seems to not really work so well if you are still wanting to accumulate more BTC, so if you are selling on the way up, but at the same time you are DCA buying, then you are engaged in both practices, so it would almost seem more logical to cut out the selling part and just continue to DCA until you reach a point that you are mostly no longer accumulating BTC, whether through DCA methods or otherwise. I describe some of my ideas of raking in
this thread, and yeah there is a bit of a presumption that accumulation targets have already been establish and sales are not being made in order to buy back lower, even though the table allows for it, but there is also a built in expectation that the BTC price might not come back down after any sale has taken place.
but the question is, how many people are financially buoyant to accumulate to that point where accumulation will not be there problem?
For example, in traditional investing it could 30-40 years or even longer to build an investment to a point in which the investor gets to fuck you status.. (which is one way of determining that s/he has enough), and it seems to me that in bitcoin, that timeline could get cut in half to 15-20 years, and surely it is not even guaranteed to get cut in half or to be better than traditional investing methods. So each of us can ONLY do what we are able to do based on our best information and our best tactics based on our own finances and psychology.
Surely there is a need for discretionary income, and having a discretionary income tends to establish the boundaries of the maximum amount that could be invested into bitcoin, and surely a person can also attempt to increase his discretionary income by increasing his income and/or cutting his expenses.. and yeah, some folks have more income opportunities than others, and sometimes there are both limitations in opportunities or there could take some time to build up training (which training sometimes can take money.. or even some folks consider that if they invest capital into a business then they can generate more income for themselves, and therefore be able to buy more bitcoin with their extra income). I cannot say which folks are able to increase their discretionary income or if they might already be starting with capital versus some folks who are starting from nothing, even though there likely is some assumptions that many folks need to engage in DCA investing because they are starting from at or near low amounts, and if they have a shitty-ass job that barely pays their expenses, then they may well not be in a solid enough of a financial position to invest in bitcoin or anything else.. and I cannot necessarily figure out ways that guys like that need to figure out ways to help themselves (if it is even possible in their circumstances?).
you know we have different investor and their capacity. your absumbtion is referencing to whales who can accumulate to that point.
I am not assuming anything, except that anyone investing into bitcoin has to have discretionary income if such persons are going to invest into bitcoin or anything else. If such persons do not have discretionary income then they are gambling rather than investing, and I am not suggesting that anyone gambles.
but my question still repeat what about those who cant afford that kind of number of coin?
You establish your investment amount in accordance with your discretionary income, and if you can ONLY afford $10 per week then that is all that you can do, unless you increase your discretionary income by increasing your income and/or by cutting your expenses.
I guest they will continue to where their capacity would take them to even if it's 0.1btc or 0.5btc or 1btc .
There are needs to try to be realistic too.. so even a person investing $200 per week might have diffiulties getting to 1 whole bitcoin in the next 10 years.. but yeah, it is not easy to know, so it might be more realistic if a person is thinking that they are investing $10 per week, then after a year they would have had invested $520 and after 10 years they would have had invested $5,200. Of course, they might be able to project salary increases or they can also project changes in the BTC price in order to estimate how many BTC that they might have after 10 years or whatever timeline they are wanting to project in regards to variable factors that they anticipate.
another question now is that whoever that accumulate upto 0.1btc as the highest or any of the figures I provided above, can he also be considered as someone who has over accumulated?
Each of us has to come to our own conclusions regarding what we believe to constitute overaccumulation. So for example if a guy has an income that is right around $24k per year ($2k per month), and his expenses might be around $1,500 per month, so that means he has $500 discretionary income, and if he is investing $100 per week into bitcoin, then after 10 years, he would have invested $52,000 into bitcoin, and surely he would have had invested more than 2 years worth of income and if BTC prices also went up, then surely at some point, he might consider that he has overaccumulated or that he has enough, which might not mean that he starts to sell his bitcoin, but it might mean that at some point he diversifies into other investments (not referring to shitcoins).
So there are various ways that a guy would balance out what is his income/expenses, how much does he have invested into various assets (such as bitcoin, cash, properties, stocks, bonds, commodities), so maybe if bitcoin is carrying too much of that amount, such as 90% in bitcoin and 10% in other stuff, he might feel like he is overallocated in bitcoin which might result in some selling of bitcoin or perhaps just using new money to buy other kinds of assets so that he might feel more balanced...
Guys have to make these kinds of choices.
In late 2013, I started to buy bitcoin, and I did not have an exact formula, but by late 2014, I had figured I had reached more than 10% of my investment portfolio in bitcoin, so I figured that I had enough, but since the BTC prices stayed down for most of 2015, I continued to accumulate BTC and I got up to 13.5% into bitcoin so I started to feel overaccumulated, yet the BTC price shot up from $250 to $19,666, so there were points in which I had gotten into the 80% areas of accumulation since I was ONLY selling small amounts of BTC, but when the BTC price corrected back down to lower than $4k, then my allocation into bitcoin was in the ballpark of 40%, so sure I could continue to consider that I had overaccumulated into bitcoin, but I still mostly sold when the BTC price went up and buy when it goes down, but ONLY selling such a small amount that I don't really care if I am able to buy it back or not.
or at that point doesn't need to buy back ? In your opinion what is the minimum or average Level of an accumulator to stop and consider himself as over accumulation?
You can measure based on percentages of your holdings in bitcoin as compared to other places or you can measure based on number years of income that you have in bitcoin, and if you want to be at fuck you status in traditional investments, then you would need to have around 25 years of income invested in order to be able to draw 4% per year of your investments (presuming that you are able to figure out ways to earn 4% per year on those investments). I personally think with bitcoin, you can get buy with around 10-12 years of your income into bitcoin and presume an ability to earn 10% on your bitcoin and to be able to withdraw 10% per year based on the 200-WMA valuation of you BTC holdings... yet of course since bitcoin's price is so volatile, there may well need to be adjustments to withdrawal rates based on how close the BTC spot price is to the 200-WMA, and so if it is 25% above or lower, then withdrawal rates may well need to be adjusted downward. Anyhow, the point is that you may well reach fuck you status with 10-12 years of income (based on the 200-WMA) invested into bitcoin as compared with 25 years in traditional investments... but you still have to figure out your own calculations so that you do not presume that you have more abilities than you do which is one of the reasons to measure value of your BTC based on the 200-WMA rather than based on spot price.
If you can continue investing with DCA method on weekly or monthly basis for 8-10 years then you will surely become a successful investor.
Even if you do everything correct, including continuing to DCA invest into bitcoin for the next 8-10 years, it is not guaranteed that your investment will end up being successful.
Yes, bitcoin has been a good investment, and there is no evidence to suggest that bitcoin is no longer a good investment, but it is still not guaranteed to pay off, even 8-10 years or longer down the road. Each of us needs to size our investments accordingly, without anticipating that our investment into BTC is guaranteed to be successful, when it is not.
