Buy Buy Buy or Sell Sell Sell?

[Skydrill]

they key is:

short term no on knows what btc will do hourly daily weekly even monthly.

but.

2009 to 2019 up
2010 to 2020 up
2011 to 2021 up
2012 to 2022 up
2013 to 2023 up
2014 to 2024 up
2015 to 2025 up


that record remains perfect

Definitely bitcoin has been up right from the oncept, although we have had several corrections and dip and bearish season, but non can be compared to its bullish season. bitcoin has been up always and we are hoping for more greater heights. even though JJG made this statement that None of us has any fucking clue what the BTC price is going to do in the future, so if we front load our investment, we need to be prepared that the price might move against us.. this  doesn't mean that bitcoin will not do fine, but just to keep our mind prepared for the worst case scenario. this means that as we expect the good we should also expect the bad or worst in anticipation, so that we wouldn't be much affected is such situation if it happens in any way, even though such will not happen.

Yea, I think that sir jayjuangee is actually right, I believe that why he is saying so is because as a Bitcoin investor, it's very wrong to go all in on your investment, invest with only what you can afford to lose because in as much as Bitcoin has a promising future, nothing is guaranteed since we live in a world full of uncertainty, but that's by the way.
But looking at the historical price movement of Bitcoin, it shows that it's on the rise and their is a higher probability that it might go as high as a million dollar or more in the future, that's why constant accumulation is greatly encouraged because your stash of Bitcoin is what's going to determine how profitable and successful you might be in the future.

To be on the safe side I think one should always invest with what he or she can afford and also inculcate the habit of being positive minded concerning your investment even if no one can really predict what the outcome or what the future outcome of Bitcoin would look like, I think the anxiety is necessary and the anticipation should remain positive just to keep you going without much worries about your investment, but in a situation where your things do not happen the way you wished then you have to take it in good faith and hope for a better day in your next investment, I believe this should be the standard for any investor.

[Loyang]

~snip~

Of course, I'm not saying it was a bad thing; I just felt that DCA would have given more value-per-$ that's all.

In future I'll probably split the lump sum into a smaller one-off + multiple DCAs. It's just a change of approach I guess; let's see what happens!

We learn every day and we learn how to do things differently as we become more acquainted and conversant with the process and the methods involved. I believe when you started your accumulation journey, if someone had told you to buy your bitcoin with DCA you wouldn't have accepted. You wouldn't have seen the difference between dca and other methods back then, but now that you have learnt it on your own and saw how DCA have the edge over others methods, you will never forget this experience. Now if you have the opportunity to advise newbies in the future who are about starting their bitcoin accumulation journey, you will explain to them with full conviction why they should start accumulation with dca method, as you have had a first hand experience yourself.

Yes you are right I agree with your comment. Those who are investing and researching along with investing which method will be good for their investment or what can be done to manage the investment better. I like those who do this along with investing. Because when a person invests if he only has basic knowledge, it will be very difficult for him to hold his holding in the long term. A person needs to start investing in the first place. After starting investing, he can learn everything. For example, how to keep himself calm during a decline, what can be done to protect the investment, how much aggressive he should be. After starting investing, a person needs to learn everything else.

If a person starts investing by acquiring only basic knowledge and then if he continues investing without acquiring any more knowledge, then he may collapse after a while. For example, due to lack of proper financial management, due to wrong decisions about investment, etc. Therefore, it is very necessary for a person to gain knowledge after investing.

[Nightwatchmare]

So I did lump sum some time back, but personally I feel now (hindsight?) that splitting the same amount into a DCA would have been a more effective approach.

I bought in Nov '24, as a lumpsum. Then in Jan/Feb I was happy but in Feb we got a bit of a dip - right up until April.

Conversely if I'd done a small amount in Nov, then bought DCA below my last buy price I think I'd have made a bundle more.

You did a good thing by front loading your Bitcoin investment with a lump sum and shouldn't regret why you didn't split the money you used for lump sum into different parts and use it for DCAing, which would have given you the opportunity to buy the long dip that happened between February to April. As a newbie that's starting his Bitcoin investment, after you have front loaded your Bitcoin investment with a lump sum, you should have an ongoing DCA strategy so that you will be persistent and consistent in accumulate Bitcoin, and it will allow you to take advantage of the market and buy any dip that will occur.

Of course, I'm not saying it was a bad thing; I just felt that DCA would have given more value-per-$ that's all.

In future I'll probably split the lump sum into a smaller one-off + multiple DCAs. It's just a change of approach I guess; let's see what happens!

You don't need to combine the lump sum method and the DCA method if you are not strong enough or have the capacity to do that because you can end up making a mistake or run out of discretionary income though combining the two will boost your investment and make you get to your set target quick but you need to have what it takes to carry out this because lump summing required a large and huge discretionary.  Any method you use to invest in Bitcoin will give you a reasonable value provided you are doing it well or properly.

You don't need to be strong enough before you can combine the DCA strategy and the lump sum strategy; what you just need is discretionary income and you are good to combine either the buying the dip strategy or the lump sum strategy with the DCA strategy. Every investor doesn't need big money if they want to lump sum because every investor has different discretionary income, and you will lump sum according to how big your discretionary income is. For example, you can lump sum with $50 and continue your Bitcoin investment with a regular DCA strategy of either $15 or $20 every month.

[Futurexxx]

.

If a person starts investing by acquiring only basic knowledge and then if he continues investing without acquiring any more knowledge, then he may collapse after a while. For example, due to lack of proper financial management, due to wrong decisions about investment, etc. Therefore, it is very necessary for a person to gain knowledge after investing.

What you are saying here is very true, basic knowledge alone about Bitcoin is not enough for a Bitcoin investor to have an be successful on the longer run, what all Investors are advice to do after starting is to seek for more knowledge on Bitcoin and what needs to be done to hold effectively, like having an emergency and reserve funds in place so that if for any reason an emergency situation arises in the future, you wouldn't have to fall back to your investment for survival or dip hands into your investment just to sorts out one emergency needs.
Lack of the right knowledge is mostly the brain behind most Investors failing in their investment, that's why going for more knowledge on Bitcoin is very much fundamental to the success of your investment.

[DubemIfedigbo001]

I think their are investors who are also comfortable buying through lump sum, but if you feel you have some leverage money you could still appreciate buying lump sum and still keep buying through the DCA, at some point you might feel like you’re behind schedule in your bitcoin investment journey and you’ll want to buy through lump sum and front load as well, which will not be a very bad idea.

Lump sum and front load are the same thing. They're all about buying more quantities of Bitcoin once and it's achievable as long as an investor has a large discretionary income at their disposal. Some investors might lump sum and arrive at their accumulation target immediately or even get to over accumulation phase.  They can now continue holding on a long-term plan to get good profits out of their investment. Alternatively, as their holding period progresses, they may yet see the desire to increase their portfolio size and they keep on adding to it to increase their profitability potentials.

[SmartCharpa]

Dips occur by chance and it's not something you just fold your hands and wait for before improving your game in Bitcoin accumulation, remember Bitcoin price is volatile and if you buy continuously you'll be able to buy at both highs and lows and increasing your aggressiveness if you're able is increasing your purchasing power to get more quantities per purchase which would amount to something tangible on the long-run.

 IMO it's not a good practice to be whimpy in your DCA because you're accumulating funds for your target dip and what if the dip ends up not happening, then you'll have wasted time and chances waiting for the dip while you could've spread some of the funds across your buying period and if Bitcoin price continues going higher, you'll regret not being as aggressive as you could be simply because you were being unnecessarily conservative and waiting for a dip that didn't end up happening.

It's about proper planning and you've got to maximize every chance you've got to acquire more quantities of Bitcoin for yourself.

Sure, Bitcoin is a very unpredictable asset, and we don’t know what tomorrow holds. The price changes have disappointed some people since they believe Bitcoin is an investment that will continue to rise without dips. That is why using the DCA plan is so important for each investor.  With DCA, you can buy whenever the price is high or low, and this allows you to build up your holdings over time without worrying about and asking the market.

However, if you continue to buy according to plan, you will not panic if the price goes up or falls since you are accumulating gradually. The advantage is that you will end up with more Bitcoin in the long term, regardless of  any changes in price.  As you said, instead of waiting for a perfect time that may never come, with DCA you will grab every opportunity to continue building. your portfolio.

[philipma1957]

Dips occur by chance and it's not something you just fold your hands and wait for before improving your game in Bitcoin accumulation, remember Bitcoin price is volatile and if you buy continuously you'll be able to buy at both highs and lows and increasing your aggressiveness if you're able is increasing your purchasing power to get more quantities per purchase which would amount to something tangible on the long-run.

 IMO it's not a good practice to be whimpy in your DCA because you're accumulating funds for your target dip and what if the dip ends up not happening, then you'll have wasted time and chances waiting for the dip while you could've spread some of the funds across your buying period and if Bitcoin price continues going higher, you'll regret not being as aggressive as you could be simply because you were being unnecessarily conservative and waiting for a dip that didn't end up happening.

It's about proper planning and you've got to maximize every chance you've got to acquire more quantities of Bitcoin for yourself.

Sure, Bitcoin is a very unpredictable asset, and we don’t know what tomorrow holds. The price changes have disappointed some people since they believe Bitcoin is an investment that will continue to rise without dips. That is why using the DCA plan is so important for each investor.  With DCA, you can buy whenever the price is high or low, and this allows you to build up your holdings over time without worrying about and asking the market.

However, if you continue to buy according to plan, you will not panic if the price goes up or falls since you are accumulating gradually. The advantage is that you will end up with more Bitcoin in the long term, regardless of  any changes in price.  As you said, instead of waiting for a perfect time that may never come, with DCA you will grab every opportunity to continue building. your portfolio.

I disagree BTC has been a mortal lock to go up if you hold it 10 years or longer.

that is the exact opposite of unpredictable.

[Baki202]

they key is:

short term no on knows what btc will do hourly daily weekly even monthly.

but.

2009 to 2019 up
2010 to 2020 up
2011 to 2021 up
2012 to 2022 up
2013 to 2023 up
2014 to 2024 up
2015 to 2025 up


that record remains perfect

Definitely bitcoin has been up right from the oncept, although we have had several corrections and dip and bearish season, but non can be compared to its bullish season. bitcoin has been up always and we are hoping for more greater heights. even though JJG made this statement that None of us has any fucking clue what the BTC price is going to do in the future, so if we front load our investment, we need to be prepared that the price might move against us.. this  doesn't mean that bitcoin will not do fine, but just to keep our mind prepared for the worst case scenario. this means that as we expect the good we should also expect the bad or worst in anticipation, so that we wouldn't be much affected is such situation if it happens in any way, even though such will not happen.

Yea, I think that sir jayjuangee is actually right, I believe that why he is saying so is because as a Bitcoin investor, it's very wrong to go all in on your investment, invest with only what you can afford to lose because in as much as Bitcoin has a promising future, nothing is guaranteed since we live in a world full of uncertainty, but that's by the way.
But looking at the historical price movement of Bitcoin, it shows that it's on the rise and their is a higher probability that it might go as high as a million dollar or more in the future, that's why constant accumulation is greatly encouraged because your stash of Bitcoin is what's going to determine how profitable and successful you might be in the future.

To be on the safe side I think one should always invest with what he or she can afford and also inculcate the habit of being positive minded concerning your investment even if no one can really predict what the outcome or what the future outcome of Bitcoin would look like, I think the anxiety is necessary and the anticipation should remain positive just to keep you going without much worries about your investment, but in a situation where your things do not happen the way you wished then you have to take it in good faith and hope for a better day in your next investment, I believe this should be the standard for any investor.

with what you said about buying more than what you can afford, it still depends on the funds that are available, but another thing is that I remembered I saw a video of a guy in 2013 begging people to buy Bitcoin then, and people pay less attention to him and not until now are a lot of people regretting why they did not buy it at that time but all hope is still not lost because we can still buy so whenever they are telling everyone to buy and hold, we should know that it is serious than what we think because bitcoin is appreciating and a lot of people are picking more.

So, no matter the price, buy Bitcoin when you adopt the act of buying and holding, it will be in your best interest, and this is not something that we are going to regret buying because it was an opportunity to make good money when there were videos all around about people buying and holding, but a lot of people did not take Bitcoin seriously. And people are just scared about buying, and by now, they should have gone past that fear because Bitcoin is like a lifetime investment, and there is no regret about buying.

And with the knowledge going all around about Bitcoin, it has even made everything easy for people to buy and hold because even with DCA and having your emergency funds all available, it has made it easier for people to invest because I am sure that no one expected Bitcoin to become a multibillion-dollar investment, so the opportunity is still open.

[avp2306]

they key is:

short term no on knows what btc will do hourly daily weekly even monthly.

but.

2009 to 2019 up
2010 to 2020 up
2011 to 2021 up
2012 to 2022 up
2013 to 2023 up
2014 to 2024 up
2015 to 2025 up


that record remains perfect

For people to see price projection each year they better see this https://coincodex.com/article/31832/bitcoin-price-history/

Bitcoin always show promising growth each year and even if there's some years that Bitcoin experience bearish situation but it always manage to pump back again then hit new more ATH.

This situation is always favorable for long term holders that's why with those statistics we have seen it really determine that Bitcoin is really good for long term and not for short term profit taking.

[Tungbulu]

So I did lump sum some time back, but personally I feel now (hindsight?) that splitting the same amount into a DCA would have been a more effective approach.
I bought in Nov '24, as a lumpsum. Then in Jan/Feb I was happy but in Feb we got a bit of a dip - right up until April.

Conversely if I'd done a small amount in Nov, then bought DCA below my last buy price I think I'd have made a bundle more.

You did a good thing by front loading your Bitcoin investment with a lump sum and shouldn't regret why you didn't split the money you used for lump sum into different parts and use it for DCAing, which would have given you the opportunity to buy the long dip that happened between February to April. As a newbie that's starting his Bitcoin investment, after you have front loaded your Bitcoin investment with a lump sum, you should have an ongoing DCA strategy so that you will be persistent and consistent in accumulate Bitcoin, and it will allow you to take advantage of the market and buy any dip that will occur.

Of course, I'm not saying it was a bad thing; I just felt that DCA would have given more value-per-$ that's all.

In future I'll probably split the lump sum into a smaller one-off + multiple DCAs. It's just a change of approach I guess; let's see what happens!

None of us has any fucking clue what the BTC price is going to do in the future, so if we front load our investment, we need to be prepared that the price might move against us.. and surely in the end, as long as we kept buying, then any error in our decision in January-ish of 2025 would have resolved itself with the BTC price returning back above $100k in May-ish and then so far mostly staying above $110k in July-ish.

If we are really thinking long term then it likely is not going to matter too much, and we may well end up making various mistakes along the way that causes our average cost per BTC to be higher, yet it still seems more important to gather more BTC and have higher costs rather than getting worked up about costs and then ending up with way fewer BTC, and there are quite a few examples in history in which the persistent BTC accumulators ended up out accumulating folks of similar (or even better finances) due to their persistence, consistency, regularity and even their aggressiveness in stacking through ongoing buying of BTC.

Yeah, you've just nailed the core of it. I don't think there is anyone capable of accurately predicting the short term price/move of Bitcoin, and over and over again, history has proven that attempting to predict or time the market could potentially turn out to have disastrous aftereffects. Those who mostly ends up with the strongest portfolios are mostly those folks who continuously keep stacking those sats, regardless of the fact that they often overpaid sometimes or missed out on some pretty cool entry points.
Even in a situation where an individual decides to frontload their investment and their cost basis looks higher for a while, there's every possibility that it will eventually balance out in the long run if they only stay consistent. Some folks feels like paying a little more per coin is risky, but It's much of a bigger risk to miss buying or hold back your funds, simply because you're looking for the best entry points. And considering how things played out with bitcoin price consolidation earlier this year, then surpassing $100k and holding, it proves how narratives changes quickly. Just imagine someone stopped buying in January, simply because they're waiting for the price to go a lot more lower, They'd probably still be waiting till now, Lol.

To me, the real edge, both for new and old investors remains persistence and consistency, because these attributes beats cleverness. It's a lot more preferable for me to have more BTC at a slightly bad average cost, than have fewer Bitcoin while waiting around for a perfect time that eventually won't come. Bitcoin is a long term game and requires one with a long term outlook to really reap the benefits of Bitcoin and reach their financial goals easily without much stress. Just stay consistent in your accumulation without minding the temporary movements of the market, it's just as simple as that.

Dips occur by chance and it's not something you just fold your hands and wait for before improving your game in Bitcoin accumulation, remember Bitcoin price is volatile and if you buy continuously you'll be able to buy at both highs and lows and increasing your aggressiveness if you're able is increasing your purchasing power to get more quantities per purchase which would amount to something tangible on the long-run.

 IMO it's not a good practice to be whimpy in your DCA because you're accumulating funds for your target dip and what if the dip ends up not happening, then you'll have wasted time and chances waiting for the dip while you could've spread some of the funds across your buying period and if Bitcoin price continues going higher, you'll regret not being as aggressive as you could be simply because you were being unnecessarily conservative and waiting for a dip that didn't end up happening.

It's about proper planning and you've got to maximize every chance you've got to acquire more quantities of Bitcoin for yourself.

Sure, Bitcoin is a very unpredictable asset, and we don’t know what tomorrow holds. The price changes have disappointed some people since they believe Bitcoin is an investment that will continue to rise without dips. That is why using the DCA plan is so important for each investor.  With DCA, you can buy whenever the price is high or low, and this allows you to build up your holdings over time without worrying about and asking the market.

However, if you continue to buy according to plan, you will not panic if the price goes up or falls since you are accumulating gradually. The advantage is that you will end up with more Bitcoin in the long term, regardless of  any changes in price.  As you said, instead of waiting for a perfect time that may never come, with DCA you will grab every opportunity to continue building. your portfolio.

I disagree BTC has been a mortal lock to go up if you hold it 10 years or longer.

that is the exact opposite of unpredictable.

That's right.

Bitcoin price could only be considered to be unpredictable during the short term price movement. One can only try to chart it, guess it or even follow cycles, but at the end of the day, the price still ends up swinging wildly in an unpredictable direction and most of the times, it often make those predictions to look foolish, lol. and this is exactly why short term perspective tends to put people into a messy situation, they'll either end up panicking when there is a dip or start feeling greedy when the market is in a bullish trend. So yeah BItcoin price within the short term can indeed be unpredictable for when considering the long term, predicting it seems a lot more easier.

[sotelorene]

.

If a person starts investing by acquiring only basic knowledge and then if he continues investing without acquiring any more knowledge, then he may collapse after a while. For example, due to lack of proper financial management, due to wrong decisions about investment, etc. Therefore, it is very necessary for a person to gain knowledge after investing.

What you are saying here is very true, basic knowledge alone about Bitcoin is not enough for a Bitcoin investor to have an be successful on the longer run, what all Investors are advice to do after starting is to seek for more knowledge on Bitcoin and what needs to be done to hold effectively, like having an emergency and reserve funds in place so that if for any reason an emergency situation arises in the future, you wouldn't have to fall back to your investment for survival or dip hands into your investment just to sorts out one emergency needs.
Lack of the right knowledge is mostly the brain behind most Investors failing in their investment, that's why going for more knowledge on Bitcoin is very much fundamental to the success of your investment.

Neither is more knowledge enough for someone to have a successful long term investment because there is a difference between having more knowledge and not practicalizing the knowledge you have. There are people who have Bitcoin knowledge and understanding but yet they are not successful in their investment reason because they don't apply the knowledge they have correctly and no one said basic knowledge is enough for someone to have a successful investment rather it was stated that basic knowledge is just the knowledge that is required for someone to start up because initially you don't need to have all the knowledge before starting but as you proceed In your accumulation journey you will be gaining more ideas.

[Kagaru]

.

If a person starts investing by acquiring only basic knowledge and then if he continues investing without acquiring any more knowledge, then he may collapse after a while. For example, due to lack of proper financial management, due to wrong decisions about investment, etc. Therefore, it is very necessary for a person to gain knowledge after investing.

What you are saying here is very true, basic knowledge alone about Bitcoin is not enough for a Bitcoin investor to have an be successful on the longer run, what all Investors are advice to do after starting is to seek for more knowledge on Bitcoin and what needs to be done to hold effectively, like having an emergency and reserve funds in place so that if for any reason an emergency situation arises in the future, you wouldn't have to fall back to your investment for survival or dip hands into your investment just to sorts out one emergency needs.
Lack of the right knowledge is mostly the brain behind most Investors failing in their investment, that's why going for more knowledge on Bitcoin is very much fundamental to the success of your investment.

Neither is more knowledge enough for someone to have a successful long term investment because there is a difference between having more knowledge and not practicalizing the knowledge you have. There are people who have Bitcoin knowledge and understanding but yet they are not successful in their investment reason because they don't apply the knowledge they have correctly and no one said basic knowledge is enough for someone to have a successful investment rather it was stated that basic knowledge is just the knowledge that is required for someone to start up because initially you don't need to have all the knowledge before starting but as you proceed In your accumulation journey you will be gaining more ideas.

I think the truth of the matter is that the basic knowledge is merely the ticket to long term survival, yet it is the consistency with which an investor expands that knowledge and makes use of it that will spell long term survival. This is evident in history in Bitcoin. In the early days, many sellers sold too early due to lack of conviction and risk management skills and others blindly sold in each cycle until they did not know when and how to make a profit, pay taxes and keep their own keys. The failure of both extremes was not due to something being bad about Bitcoin, but the investors ceased to learn.


I believe that the equation is as follows: have enough knowledge not to make blaringly obvious mistakes (such as sending coins to the wrong network or becoming a victim of a scam), but continuously learn about security, market psychology, and financial planning on the way. But knowledge is not the magic ingredient like you said. It must be disciplined and put into practise. Knowledge remains theoretical without proper budgeting, saving emergency funds and without cold storage. Finally, Bitcoin investment requires a combination of education, action, and patience, not a combination of one of them.

[Ruttoshi]

So yeah BItcoin price within the short term can indeed be unpredictable for when considering the long term, predicting it seems a lot more easier.

I disagree with you that bitcoin price is easy to predict in the long run because nobody knows what Thebes future has fod bitcoin which is the main reason why you are advised to invest with the amount of money that you can afford to lose. Just the way that the price is unpredictable due to Thebes volatile nature of bitcoin is the same in both short term and long-term, if not those early bitcoin hodlers who sold too early when bitcoin price increased to $10k wouldn't sell but should know that bitcoin price will hit $120k in future.

Bitcoin is price increases based on increase in adoption and the halving event but that doesn't mean that you can actually know the exact price that bitcoin will reach in the year 2029. You are advised to invest in the long-term because that's the only way to limit the risk in bitcoin investment because the price increases overtime based on history data since bitcoin is still in her early stage.

[Tungbulu]

So yeah BItcoin price within the short term can indeed be unpredictable for when considering the long term, predicting it seems a lot more easier.

I disagree with you that bitcoin price is easy to predict in the long run because nobody knows what Thebes future has fod bitcoin which is the main reason why you are advised to invest with the amount of money that you can afford to lose. Just the way that the price is unpredictable due to Thebes volatile nature of bitcoin is the same in both short term and long-term, if not those early bitcoin hodlers who sold too early when bitcoin price increased to $10k wouldn't sell but should know that bitcoin price will hit $120k in future.

Bitcoin is price increases based on increase in adoption and the halving event but that doesn't mean that you can actually know the exact price that bitcoin will reach in the year 2029. You are advised to invest in the long-term because that's the only way to limit the risk in bitcoin investment because the price increases overtime based on history data since bitcoin is still in her early stage.

Yo mate, I said it’s EASIER (Not Easy) to predict witching the long run, compared to attempting to predict it within the short term. Historically, Bitcoin has been known for its long term growth, and even if it’s true that past performances doesn’t always guarantee future results, but to an extent we can believe beyond reasonable doubt that it’ll most likely continue in that trend within the long term, unlike attempting to predict the price of Bitcoin within the short term, because short term movement has never been in any particular trend, and that’s why I said that it is easier to predict Bitcoin within the long haul, compared to the short term.

[JayJuanGee]

I think their are investors who are also comfortable buying through lump sum, but if you feel you have some leverage money you could still appreciate buying lump sum and still keep buying through the DCA, at some point you might feel like you’re behind schedule in your bitcoin investment journey and you’ll want to buy through lump sum and front load as well, which will not be a very bad idea.

Lump sum and front load are the same thing.

They are not the same thing.

Front loading can be done in a variety of ways that involve trying to get a stake (or a BIGGER stake) in bitcoin faster than what you might do if you were to follow your regular pace.  Not everyone is capable of frontloading without putting themselves into a difficult position, yet if a person is financially strong and even has other investments, it is possible to front load by reallocating the other investments into bitcoin.  It is also possible to front load using debt or for example, you could front load by tripling your regular DCA.. so instead of investing $100 per week into bitcoin you increase it to $300.

Lump sum can be a bit of an ambiguous term since it can refer to the receipt of extra money or just having extra money available, and it can also refer to investing a big chunk at once.  Some people seem to erroneously consider lump summing as a method of buying the dip.. or even some money that they accumulate for a period of time so that they can strategically strike when the BTC price is low.

Lump sum can be used for front loading, since it is a quick way to get money into bitcoin, but they are still not the same thing.

They're all about buying more quantities of Bitcoin once and it's achievable as long as an investor has a large discretionary income at their disposal. Some investors might lump sum and arrive at their accumulation target immediately or even get to over accumulation phase. 

Sure.  You are mostly correct in this description, but even if what you are saying is true, it does not make lump sum and front loading the same.

They can now continue holding on a long-term plan to get good profits out of their investment.

There surely can be advantages in terms of investing into bitcoin sooner rather than later, yet price direction is not guaranteed to go up after having had invested in a lump sum kind of a way.

It is true that if bitcoin had dipped a lot then lump sum investing may well have greater chances of getting into and staying in profits, yet even that is not guaranteed.  there are some folks who purposefully choose to invest when the price is going up rather than down since they identify that the price is trending up, yet if we are a long term investor, then we might not be served very well with our attempts to try to strategize when the dips might be or not be.. especially if we are in the earliest of stages of investing in bitcoin. 

Historically, there surely have been folks who have either lump sum invested  (and/or front loaded) their investment at or near the top of the market, which usually is not a good strategy, yet it still can end up working out with bitcoin if the guy has a long term horizon and/or that he continues to invest in bitcoin even after having had established a decently large position early on.

So for example, maybe a guy comes into bitcoin in late 2017 towards the top of the 2017 prices, and if he bought a big chunk near the $19,666 top, he might end up being in the red for several years and the BTC price even went back below that price in 2022 and one time in early 2023... but if he kept investing in 2018, 2019 and 2020, he surely could have had brought his average cost per BTC well below $10k, even if he started to buy at or near the top.

Bitcoin's ongoing upward growth has saved people several times over the years, even though it is not guaranteed to save any of us, yet the longer term investors have done quite well by either just holding through bad periods, yet they have done even better if they continued to buy during periods that their overall holdings were in the red for extended periods of time.

Alternatively, as their holding period progresses, they may yet see the desire to increase their portfolio size and they keep on adding to it to increase their profitability potentials.

Yep.  That tends to be the solution in regards to guys who might have had lump sum and/or front loaded their investment, which is to just continue buying, even if the continued buying amounts might have had ended up being much smaller than the original investment.

It is like the situations in which guys blow their whole wadd (or nearly their whole wadd) towards the beginning, yet so far in bitcoin, those who have continued to buy bitcoin, have so far ended up getting bailed out by bitcoin's subsequent price actions, so long as they kept buying and they did not screw up their situation more by either selling and/or trying to trade their way out of their already negative situation.

So yeah BItcoin price within the short term can indeed be unpredictable for when considering the long term, predicting it seems a lot more easier.

I disagree with you that bitcoin price is easy to predict in the long run because nobody knows what Thebes future has fod bitcoin which is the main reason why you are advised to invest with the amount of money that you can afford to lose. Just the way that the price is unpredictable due to Thebes volatile nature of bitcoin is the same in both short term and long-term, if not those early bitcoin hodlers who sold too early when bitcoin price increased to $10k wouldn't sell but should know that bitcoin price will hit $120k in future.

Bitcoin is price increases based on increase in adoption and the halving event but that doesn't mean that you can actually know the exact price that bitcoin will reach in the year 2029. You are advised to invest in the long-term because that's the only way to limit the risk in bitcoin investment because the price increases overtime based on history data since bitcoin is still in her early stage.

Yo mate, I said it’s EASIER (Not Easy) to predict witching the long run, compared to attempting to predict it within the short term. Historically, Bitcoin has been known for its long term growth, and even if it’s true that past performances doesn’t always guarantee future results, but to an extent we can believe beyond reasonable doubt that it’ll most likely continue in that trend within the long term, unlike attempting to predict the price of Bitcoin within the short term, because short term movement has never been in any particular trend, and that’s why I said that it is easier to predict Bitcoin within the long haul, compared to the short term.

Ultimately, most of us are likely investing into bitcoin because we consider that in the long term, the odds for up are greater than the odds for down, yet we still have to be careful not to put everything into bitcoin in case the down scenario ends up playing out, even though we speculate that the odds for up are greater.  We could end up being incorrect in our prediction, so we hedge and we try to be careful.

Another thing that we do is choose our position size, so even historically, guys who were quite skeptical of bitcoin still ended up profiting from bitcoin, even if they took a whimpy position, so there are ways that we can choose our position size so that, even if bitcoin ends up going down or going to zero, then the most that we end up losing is 100% of our investment, yet on the other hand, if someone invested into bitcoin in between 2013 and 2016, then he may well would have had been able to get average bitcoin costs to be around $1k per coin or even lower than that... so right now his holdings are 100x of whatever he ended up putting into bitcoin,

so in that case, he should reasonably conclude that if he had put in more then his profits would have had been more, so there are risks in being overly whimpy an there are risks in being overly aggressive since there are guys who were overly aggressive and they end up losing because, they end up having to sell way too much (perhaps even all) of their bitcoin holdings too soon because either they did to manage their cashflow well, or they failed to sufficiently earn money so that they could pay their expenses during the time that they needed to be able to continue to accumulate and/or hold the bitcoin that they had already accumulated.

In other words, there are guys who figured out how to lose money or even to not make money, even though they knew about bitcoin and they involved themselves in bitcoin when BTC prices were much lower.

By the way, I would suggest that DCAing and/or long term investing does not take away risks, yet risks can be mitigated though such approaches that involve position size, and guys still have to figure out how aggressive that they are ready, willing and able to be without over doing it.

[Shadiq]

Yo mate, I said it’s EASIER (Not Easy) to predict witching the long run, compared to attempting to predict it within the short term. Historically, Bitcoin has been known for its long term growth, and even if it’s true that past performances doesn’t always guarantee future results, but to an extent we can believe beyond reasonable doubt that it’ll most likely continue in that trend within the long term, unlike attempting to predict the price of Bitcoin within the short term, because short term movement has never been in any particular trend, and that’s why I said that it is easier to predict Bitcoin within the long haul, compared to the short term.

It is not possible to predict Bitcoin in the short term, you will not even be able to predict whether the price of Bitcoin will increase or decrease in the short term. But in the long term, this prediction is a bit easier, although we cannot say for sure, but our expectation and long-term prediction is that the price of Bitcoin will increase in the long term.

But if you mention a specific price, then it is not possible to predict the price of Bitcoin in the long term and in the short term. That is, the price of Bitcoin can never be predicted with certainty. It is just a guess. Our big expectation in the long term is that Bitcoin is bullish in the long term.

[Jostern]

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If a person starts investing by acquiring only basic knowledge and then if he continues investing without acquiring any more knowledge, then he may collapse after a while. For example, due to lack of proper financial management, due to wrong decisions about investment, etc. Therefore, it is very necessary for a person to gain knowledge after investing.

What you are saying here is very true, basic knowledge alone about Bitcoin is not enough for a Bitcoin investor to have an be successful on the longer run, what all Investors are advice to do after starting is to seek for more knowledge on Bitcoin and what needs to be done to hold effectively, like having an emergency and reserve funds in place so that if for any reason an emergency situation arises in the future, you wouldn't have to fall back to your investment for survival or dip hands into your investment just to sorts out one emergency needs.
Lack of the right knowledge is mostly the brain behind most Investors failing in their investment, that's why going for more knowledge on Bitcoin is very much fundamental to the success of your investment.

It’s as simple as you just require little knowledge before starting bitcoin, I don’t think it’s will be a good idea for you to wait to get all the knowledge in the world about bitcoin before you could get started, you can as well start investing in bitcoin and then you can start gaining more knowledge along the line as you’re learning, I know so many people have different preferences when investing in bitcoin, the most important is a strategy that could best work for an individual most especially getting started is very important and crucial when investing in bitcoin for a long term purpose.

[ruykeri]

.

If a person starts investing by acquiring only basic knowledge and then if he continues investing without acquiring any more knowledge, then he may collapse after a while. For example, due to lack of proper financial management, due to wrong decisions about investment, etc. Therefore, it is very necessary for a person to gain knowledge after investing.

What you are saying here is very true, basic knowledge alone about Bitcoin is not enough for a Bitcoin investor to have an be successful on the longer run, what all Investors are advice to do after starting is to seek for more knowledge on Bitcoin and what needs to be done to hold effectively, like having an emergency and reserve funds in place so that if for any reason an emergency situation arises in the future, you wouldn't have to fall back to your investment for survival or dip hands into your investment just to sorts out one emergency needs.
Lack of the right knowledge is mostly the brain behind most Investors failing in their investment, that's why going for more knowledge on Bitcoin is very much fundamental to the success of your investment.

I don't think it's right to invest in Bitcoin with just basic knowledge. You need to have a good understanding of the important fundamentals of investing, including Bitcoin. Because if you don't know the fundamentals of investing, you are likely to make mistakes in the future, and making the wrong decision when it comes to investing in BTC never brings anything good.And it's not takes a lot of time to achieve these fundamental knowledge of investing in bitcoin.What you said is important point to have an emergency fund and a reserve fund when investing for a long time. However, an investor should not just focus on fund management and regular Bitcoin purchases, he should have long-term thinking and decisions. 

When a person reaches the over accumulation stage after a long time of buying Bitcoin regularly through discretionary income, then the most important thing for him should be to maintain those Bitcoins properly. The maintenance stage should be taken seriously by all investors. If the maintenance stage is managed properly, he will be able to enjoy the result of his hard work through the sustainable withdrawal  stage for a long time. At this point, based on the average growth rate of Bitcoin, he can sell some of his Bitcoin holdings to cover all his future expenses. When he sells a certain amount of Satoshi every month, the value of the Bitcoin he has left will continue to increase over time, so the value of his Bitcoin holdings in the over-accumulation stage will not decrease much.

[Muba20]

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If a person starts investing by acquiring only basic knowledge and then if he continues investing without acquiring any more knowledge, then he may collapse after a while. For example, due to lack of proper financial management, due to wrong decisions about investment, etc. Therefore, it is very necessary for a person to gain knowledge after investing.

What you are saying here is very true, basic knowledge alone about Bitcoin is not enough for a Bitcoin investor to have an be successful on the longer run, what all Investors are advice to do after starting is to seek for more knowledge on Bitcoin and what needs to be done to hold effectively, like having an emergency and reserve funds in place so that if for any reason an emergency situation arises in the future, you wouldn't have to fall back to your investment for survival or dip hands into your investment just to sorts out one emergency needs.
Lack of the right knowledge is mostly the brain behind most Investors failing in their investment, that's why going for more knowledge on Bitcoin is very much fundamental to the success of your investment.

It’s as simple as you just require little knowledge before starting bitcoin, I don’t think it’s will be a good idea for you to wait to get all the knowledge in the world about bitcoin before you could get started, you can as well start investing in bitcoin and then you can start gaining more knowledge along the line as you’re learning, I know so many people have different preferences when investing in bitcoin, the most important is a strategy that could best work for an individual most especially getting started is very important and crucial when investing in bitcoin for a long term purpose.

There is no point in delaying investment to gain in-depth knowledge about Bitcoin before starting to invest. When an investor actually starts holding Bitcoin, it will be easier for him to gain more knowledge about Bitcoin. In this way, he will gain knowledge about Bitcoin, and on the other hand, his holding will also continue to grow. But those who try to gain knowledge about Bitcoin without holding it may be reluctant to invest if the Bitcoin price falls slightly at some point, which can create a major obstacle in their Bitcoin investment.

[Guccho]

So yeah BItcoin price within the short term can indeed be unpredictable for when considering the long term, predicting it seems a lot more easier.

I disagree with you that bitcoin price is easy to predict in the long run because nobody knows what Thebes future has fod bitcoin which is the main reason why you are advised to invest with the amount of money that you can afford to lose. Just the way that the price is unpredictable due to Thebes volatile nature of bitcoin is the same in both short term and long-term, if not those early bitcoin hodlers who sold too early when bitcoin price increased to $10k wouldn't sell but should know that bitcoin price will hit $120k in future.

Bitcoin is price increases based on increase in adoption and the halving event but that doesn't mean that you can actually know the exact price that bitcoin will reach in the year 2029. You are advised to invest in the long-term because that's the only way to limit the risk in bitcoin investment because the price increases overtime based on history data since bitcoin is still in her early stage.

Yo mate, I said it’s EASIER (Not Easy) to predict witching the long run, compared to attempting to predict it within the short term. Historically, Bitcoin has been known for its long term growth, and even if it’s true that past performances doesn’t always guarantee future results, but to an extent we can believe beyond reasonable doubt that it’ll most likely continue in that trend within the long term, unlike attempting to predict the price of Bitcoin within the short term, because short term movement has never been in any particular trend, and that’s why I said that it is easier to predict Bitcoin within the long haul, compared to the short term.

Ultimately, most of us are likely investing into bitcoin because we consider that in the long term, the odds for up are greater than the odds for down, yet we still have to be careful not to put everything into bitcoin in case the down scenario ends up playing out, even though we speculate that the odds for up are greater.  We could end up being incorrect in our prediction, so we hedge and we try to be careful.

Another thing that we do is choose our position size, so even historically, guys who were quite skeptical of bitcoin still ended up profiting from bitcoin, even if they took a whimpy position, so there are ways that we can choose our position size so that, even if bitcoin ends up going down or going to zero, then the most that we end up losing is 100% of our investment, yet on the other hand, if someone invested into bitcoin in between 2013 and 2016, then he may well would have had been able to get average bitcoin costs to be around $1k per coin or even lower than that... so right now his holdings are 100x of whatever he ended up putting into bitcoin,

so in that case, he should reasonably conclude that if he had put in more then his profits would have had been more, so there are risks in being overly whimpy an there are risks in being overly aggressive since there are guys who were overly aggressive and they end up losing because, they end up having to sell way too much (perhaps even all) of their bitcoin holdings too soon because either they did to manage their cashflow well, or they failed to sufficiently earn money so that they could pay their expenses during the time that they needed to be able to continue to accumulate and/or hold the bitcoin that they had already accumulated.

In other words, there are guys who figured out how to lose money or even to not make money, even though they knew about bitcoin and they involved themselves in bitcoin when BTC prices were much lower.

By the way, I would suggest that DCAing and/or long term investing does not take away risks, yet risks can be mitigated though such approaches that involve position size, and guys still have to figure out how aggressive that they are ready, willing and able to be without over doing it.

Yea, I believe that your explanation is reasonable. It is not an overstatement to say that it is quite easier to estimate the long term direction of Bitcoin than the short term moves, since the short term price movement is largely noise, fueled by leverage, speculation and news. Conversely, in the long-term chart, a recurring trend is seen which is connected to halving cycles and growth in adoption. This is why although nobody could predict precise figures it has been practical to assume hikes in highs in the 4-8-year period.
And yet you are correct too that easier is not certain. Many of the original owners sold at 10k since they lacked belief and cash flow to endure bear markets. That demonstrates the true danger lies not in making a forecast about the price, but in personal financial management that will enable you to be invested during those cycles to get the benefit.


Your point about position sizing is also proved by history. Investors who put in small sums 2013-2016 and just held are multiplying by large numbers today. Meanwhile, those who bet everything without a strategy had to sell when the economy hit lows and had no opportunity to ride the long-term trend.