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[famososMuertos]

I should mention that I’ve just spent two consecutive weekends winning in the "Whale" contests, in addition to winning a round in one of their sponsored groups (Madness). Consequently, I’ve decided to go for the highest odds I could find for my $25 Free Bet; if that doesn’t work out, I’ll bet the "minimum" on the second Free bet.



Two of the bets will be settled tomorrow; these should be the easiest ones to win. In any case, the implied probability is around 3.2%. That might seem low, but considering there are 9 options and a payout of 32 times the stake, it’s actually not bad at all—there’s definitely value there.  

[el che]

...

Two of the bets will be settled tomorrow; these should be the easiest ones to win. In any case, the implied probability is around 3.2%. That might seem low, but considering there are 9 options and a payout of 32 times the stake, it’s actually not bad at all—there’s definitely value there.  

Good luck man, I hope you win it! I wasn't lucky with my freebet even though I went for small odds.



I placed the bet at halftime during the Champions League games needing 2 more goals from each match. Managed to hit 2 out of the 3, but that red card for Atletico Madrid completely killed the match, Atletico stopped attacking and parked five at the back. They were looking very dangerous before the sent off. Stuttgart also had a few clear chances to pull off another goal but in the end it just wasn't meant to be for either of us. Better luck next time I guess!

[SamReomo]

Consequently, I’ve decided to go for the highest odds I could find for my $25 Free Bet; if that doesn’t work out, I’ll bet the "minimum" on the second Free bet.

I think you may not be able to correctly predict all those matches and as a result the combo bet will be a loss. I think it isn't worth it to take such huge level risks in order to have higher rewards. Well, since you selected many matches in your slip it makes sense to know the results. I hope you may win the bet but the chance of winning such bets is very low.

[famososMuertos]

,,//;;

I think you may not be able to correctly predict all those matches and as a result the combo bet will be a loss. I think it isn't worth it to take such huge level risks in order to have higher rewards. Well, since you selected many matches in your slip it makes sense to know the results. I hope you may win the bet but the chance of winning such bets is very low.

That’s the whole point: knowing what you’re getting into and how you aim your "bullets" (bets). Read carefully; this is a "Free Bet."

Hear me out, you can actually determine your odds of winning; it’s not just left to fate. You can calculate them so you don’t have to cross your fingers or light a candle to a saint. Whether you claim "you’re going to lose" or "you’re going to win";  both are equally fallacious.
Many gamblers who think like you often use terms like "long, medium, or "short-term" as an escape hatch to sidestep the specifics. You should have quoted my full statement—that’s where your "fortune-teller" act falls apart.

The implied probability of winning is exactly 3.2%. This can shift depending on the specific bets analyzed, but the question is: why didn’t I choose more or fewer selections? Well, the maximum number of picks allowed for a "Free Bet" is 10, with a maximum multiplier of 99x. Adding that 10th pick (the maximum allowed) would have pushed the potential payout to nearly $1,200, but it would have also lowered my odds of winning even further.

Here’s the thing: the minimum odds for a pick are 1.30, which would yield a profit of $7.50. I’d rather take a different kind of risk than settle for a couple of bucks. Besides, a bet at 2.00 odds doesn’t guarantee a win—it just improves the odds, that’s all.

Furthermore, that 3.2% chance is better than a lottery ticket; both in terms of the actual odds and the fact that it’s a $0 investment.

On another note, here’s my advice regarding "Free Bets": the larger the potential prize, then, what you need to do is improve your implied probability of winning. Here are some examples of how your odds of winning (or losing, as the case may be) change:




^{Important: This is not investment advice, nor is it advice on how to lose your free bet—or the opposite, for that matter. If you do not understand this disclaimer, please proceed accordingly.} 

[SamReomo]

On another note, here’s my advice regarding "Free Bets": the larger the potential prize, then, what you need to do is improve your implied probability of winning. Here are some examples of how your odds of winning (or losing, as the case may be) change:

Well high odds can be considered when using a free bet as they have low risk as compared to adding multiple matches in your bet slip. I personally avoid adding multiple matches to my bet slip because winning a combo bet is way hard than a single match bet. But as always it's someone's own choice to either take high risk or low risk. Hope you may win some of such bets and show the results here on this thread.

[arallmuus]

Two of the bets will be settled tomorrow; these should be the easiest ones to win.

Why am I thinking Manchester City would be a part of these 'easy' to win that you had on your bets, so how did this one go? 

That’s the whole point: knowing what you’re getting into and how you aim your "bullets" (bets). Read carefully; this is a "Free Bet."
-snip

Yeah famos school them out, I hate to say this but alot of people on this board dont really gamble let alone understand how the odds actually works. I cant wait to get mine since I won one on the last madness round

as compared to adding multiple matches in your bet slip. I personally avoid adding multiple matches to my bet slip because winning a combo bet is way hard than a single match bet.

I do understand that people have their own preference but if you look closely, its 32x with 9 acca slip so its worth a shot since its practically zero risk so thats a good value that he could extract if he win. He also had 2 free bets so he could always go for lower value on the 2nd one as he had mentioned

[SamReomo]

I do understand that people have their own preference but if you look closely, its 32x with 9 acca slip so its worth a shot since its practically zero risk so thats a good value that he could extract if he win. He also had 2 free bets so he could always go for lower value on the 2nd one as he had mentioned

Yes, that surely a risk he took and very rarely such risks can give rewards. A few weeks ago someone here won a combo bet and the won amount was over $150 if I recall it correctly. The person only used a free bet and nothing else. Yes, he owns 2 bets one of which he used as a combo bet and he still can use the 2nd one and take low risk with the 2nd one.