CryptoWaves - Elliott Wave Analysis Blog

[chessnut]

I like your chart. I dont think you need to be critical of the forecast, because I don't think that is what EW really does. we are just looking for junctures.

Actually, to an extent, that is exactly what EW does. EW shows what is possible to happen next (granted you can have many differing alternatives, though). If there are 5 clear, non-overlapping waves down, then up is the next likely direction in either a five wave 1 or A, OR a 3 wave ABC. The fibo relationship to the previous move can give clues as to which one it is.

As movements happen, you get a few different counts. Then you start checking for invalidation and readjusting your counts until the picture becomes clearer. Counts are rarely perfect on the first try!

yeah, you said it. We can use it for forecasting, but it is ambiguous. Our count is also ambiguous. A lot of people would laugh at that, but the other day I was offered the chance to buy at 355 using EW. I dont think any other TA would have served me so well.

[1714043648]

1714043648

[eboard10]

I don't have time for a chart update right now, but I'll throw a quick update here.

Wave (4)-C-[Y] ended at $465. This puts new targets for the end of (5)-C-[Y] between $360 and $295. Price already hit $339.79, so that could be the end of wave (5). Full confirmation that price is in an uptrend (based on this wave count) will not happen until we rise above $465, the wave (4) high.

Caution is advised to the long side until price rises above $465, but downside risk is limited to around $300 at the same time. Could stay in the $465 - $300 range for the short term.

I propose a slightly modified count. I have a different count for waves 3 & 4 which would push the ceiling up to ~$510 for confirmation that we are in an uptrend. At this point I am still inclined towards another X wave that will take us to $500 before bringing us back down to the low $300s and possibly even the $250-300 range sometime in May.



Feedback is welcome.

[Queeq]

Looks reasonable. And now we have triangle as wave B. Looks like we are going to have wave C upwards that will end I guess around 500. This would confirm correction and down we go.

[Queeq]

Here is my latest count.

[eboard10]

Looks reasonable. And now we have triangle as wave B. Looks like we are going to have wave C upwards that will end I guess around 500. This would confirm correction and down we go.

Yep, the B wave should take us near 400 before the C wave up. This should play out during the next 2-3 days.

Btw, your charts are quite hard to read. Sometimes making them simpler is better, no need to go into all the tiny details. But cool charts anyway

[chessnut]

my software sucks for labeling, but Im sure y'all can see that this lil wave here actually meets the criteria of a 5/primary wave UP.

third wave not the smallest, fourth wave wedge, and no overlapping. fractals are fairly clear.

being the end of a larger cycle, This correction (reversal!) should last quite a long time. I doubt that it is merely a correction because (unless it forms a wedge) it will break upwards out of the larger cycle wedge in the time that it needs to consolidate. today, it would need to break 510 to get out of the wedge. In a weeks time, it would only have to break 480 to escape from the wedge.

what are the fundamental arguments that this is only a correction? I would have expected a reversal upwards by the 14th as a critical fundamental date.

[Queeq]

Btw, your charts are quite hard to read. Sometimes making them simpler is better, no need to go into all the tiny details. But cool charts anyway

Thanks, I'll make them simpler. This was just a working copy that I urged to show

my software sucks for labeling, but Im sure y'all can see that this lil wave here actually meets the criteria of a 5/primary wave UP.

third wave not the smallest, fourth wave wedge, and no overlapping. fractals are fairly clear.

being the end of a larger cycle, This correction (reversal!) should last quite a long time. I doubt that it is merely a correction because (unless it forms a wedge) it will break upwards out of the larger cycle wedge in the time that it needs to consolidate. today, it would need to break 510 to get out of the wedge. In a weeks time, it would only have to break 480 to escape from the wedge.

what are the fundamental arguments that this is only a correction? I would have expected a reversal upwards by the 14th as a critical fundamental date.

Use tradingview.com, there are lots of free functions. It's enough for almost everything.

We are not sure this is the end of large cycle, aren't we?

It still fits theory about it being wave a (subdividing into 5 waves) and sideways being wave b which is also typical for it. Waves 2 are usually more steep. Moreover, it's kind of triangle there which appears almost always in waves 4 or B.

For it to become new uptrend I believe it must reliably break 600.

[chessnut]

Queeq,

The price has almost retraced 100% of the latest wave down, and will likely do so in the next C or III wave upwards. This would confirm that the last wave down was a fifth wave, terminating a larger cycle downwards. not necessarily a 6 mothly reversal, but this reaction off lows should give us a few weeks. I am arguing that in a few weeks time, this reaction will have little choice but to break the wedge running down from ATH, and that would be very bullish. This is reversal territory, after all.

On a smaller scale, we have a clear a-b-c off recent highs, 440 - 400. It seems to have hit a bottom within the reaction of the last bull run. this is really bullish. If the coming C wave up that we expect is more aggressive than the A wave, then it could easily be a third wave.

If we break 510, we have broken the wedge. I think that a target of 600 to establish an up trend is overkill.

[chessnut]

This is a powerful day trading long signal considering that B was a wedge (anticipates a terminal move) and the price has turned around after being rejected in the territory of a larger wedge.

What is a possible alternative count that does NOT go on to break 440?

[RyNinDaCleM]

This is a powerful day trading long signal considering that B was a wedge (anticipates a terminal move) and the price has turned around after being rejected in the territory of a larger wedge.

What is a possible alternative count that does NOT go on to break 440?

Please don't take this the wrong way, as I'm not trying to be a dick
A triangle is a triangle and a wedge is a wedge. They are not interchangeable (though a wedge is a type of triangle) In EW, a wedge is ONLY found in a 1, 5, A or C. A wedge is an impulsive wave that shows weakness in the move, hence it is called either a leading or ending diagonal.
A triangle is a corrective wave which I am assuming you are referring to.

To answer your question...
This is a possible count that shows the top is in.


It is by no means the only count available, so don't take this as advice.

[chessnut]

RyNinDaCleM,

  Im here to listen.

.... I really thought that wedges and triangles were the same thing.... just different terms used to describe contracting volatility and liquidity in a range. maybe I have been fooled by non - EW analysts.

your analysis was certainly an alternative but not any more  I dont go into that sort of detail, I find it doesn't help until I wish to execute. The problem I have with that analysis is that you couldnt justify it on an hourly scale.

At time of writing, this looks like a third wave coming, or an aggressive C wave. but it's a long way yet. we will see. what are your thoughts?

[chessnut]

If this is a C wave, it is very aggressive, and by rule of thumb maybe we should expect a 1:1 A:C ratio. this rally could take us to $500, threatening the wedge.

[eboard10]

If this is a C wave, it is very aggressive, and by rule of thumb maybe we should expect a 1:1 A:C ratio. this rally could take us to $500, threatening the wedge.

Yes, a 1:1 ratio is what we expect at this moment so we should be targeting the $500-510 level for the end of the wave. You can look at the previous ABC rise from 400 to 700 for pattern similarity.

[chessnut]

If this is a C wave, it is very aggressive, and by rule of thumb maybe we should expect a 1:1 A:C ratio. this rally could take us to $500, threatening the wedge.

Yes, a 1:1 ratio is what we expect at this moment so we should be targeting the $500-510 level for the end of the wave. You can look at the previous ABC rise from 400 to 700 for pattern similarity.

Also, a real possibility that this is the reversal we have been waiting for. if it breaks through 510, I think a wave iii interpretation is in line.

[eboard10]

Also, a real possibility that this is the reversal we have been waiting for. if it breaks through 510, I think a wave iii interpretation is in line.

Let's wait and see

[Queeq]

Well, it may be a start of new trend. Need to remake my analysis though. I'll post them later.

[RyNinDaCleM]

RyNinDaCleM,

  Im here to listen.

.... I really thought that wedges and triangles were the same thing.... just different terms used to describe contracting volatility and liquidity in a range. maybe I have been fooled by non - EW analysts.

your analysis was certainly an alternative but not any more  I dont go into that sort of detail, I find it doesn't help until I wish to execute. The problem I have with that analysis is that you couldnt justify it on an hourly scale.

At time of writing, this looks like a third wave coming, or an aggressive C wave. but it's a long way yet. we will see. what are your thoughts?

Yes, typically you would not just assume that overlapping waves are nested 1/2's (3rd wave extension) as I had labeled... That is why I validated it with my disclosure.

[chessnut]

so seems like we might see a five wave rally top off here. if it bounces off the wedge line, then an overall wave C interpretation is likely, and the rally would be postponed.

If we pass through the wedge, then I am still looking for a wave iii interpretation.

[prophetx]

love the post, where to next captain?

[chessnut]

some have said less flattering things about EW analysis, mine being no exception 

where to next? up or down  we are having a battle at 500. if we take out 500, this breaks the back of the bears for many reasons. I would assume a iii wave interpretation, and expect a rally to 600 in the coming days.