CryptoWaves - Elliott Wave Analysis Blog

[chessnut]

Primary wave took 1.5 days to complete, third wave took 2.5 days to complete. how many days will fifth wave take to complete?

Probably 2.5+1.5 = 4 days or (2.5+4.5)*1.618 = 6.5 days.
Or: 2.5-1.5 = 1 day.

But now I'm not sure we will continue going up.

why not?

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[fr33d0miz3r]

Primary wave took 1.5 days to complete, third wave took 2.5 days to complete. how many days will fifth wave take to complete?

Probably 2.5+1.5 = 4 days or (2.5+4.5)*1.618 = 6.5 days.
Or: 2.5-1.5 = 1 day.

But now I'm not sure we will continue going up.

why not?

I rely on EMAs for confirmations

Hmm, the weekend pump continues. That gives us some hope for an uptrend.

[chessnut]

Sounds strange to me. we have a leading indicator, but the EMA is telling you to buy the fifth wave. better idea, look to short the fifth of the fifth wave and make an absolute killing.

[fr33d0miz3r]

Sounds strange to me. we have a leading indicator, but the EMA is telling you to buy the fifth wave. better idea, look to short the fifth of the fifth wave and make an absolute killing.

200-day EMA is a barrier which is hard to break. Once we break it, we won't dive below it anymore soon. So, if we break 200-day EMA, we'll have an extended 5th wave. Why not buy it if it's extended?

Or if we fail to break the 200-day EMA, we'll possibly break it by the 3rd wave of higher level. Why not buy the 3rd wave then?

[chessnut]

Sounds strange to me. we have a leading indicator, but the EMA is telling you to buy the fifth wave. better idea, look to short the fifth of the fifth wave and make an absolute killing.

200-day EMA is a barrier which is hard to break. Once we break it, we won't dive below it anymore soon. So, if we break 200-day EMA, we'll have an extended 5th wave. Why not buy it if it's extended?

Or if we fail to break the 200-day EMA, we'll possibly break it by the 3rd wave of higher level. Why not buy the 3rd wave then?

we dont know that yet. sure, buy the fifth wave, but take the third wave gratefully, that is where the money lies.

also, buying the fifth wave is not a hold position, as usually it is 100% retraced. I will be shorting if it plays out clearly. I imagine it could be catalysed by the last of the chinese news - say Huobi shutting down.

[fr33d0miz3r]

also, buying the fifth wave is not a hold position, as usually it is 100% retraced. I will be shorting if it plays out clearly. I imagine it could be catalysed by the last of the chinese news - say Huobi shutting down.

If the fifth wave 100% retraces, then we won't break the 200-day EMA by it.
And it would mean we still won't break the downtrend line.

So, there are still no confirmations of an uptrend to me. I still have EW counts that tell me a possibility of the downtrend continuation within the next 3 weeks to the possible bottom at ~325. While this count is not invalidated, I will rather sit tight and see what happens.

Every EW counts should be confirmed by traditional TA and important EMAs.

[chessnut]

also, buying the fifth wave is not a hold position, as usually it is 100% retraced. I will be shorting if it plays out clearly. I imagine it could be catalysed by the last of the chinese news - say Huobi shutting down.

If the fifth wave 100% retraces, then we won't break the 200-day EMA by it.
And it would mean we still won't break the downtrend line.

So, there are still no confirmations of an uptrend to me. I still have EW counts that tell me a possibility of the downtrend continuation within the next 3 weeks to the possible bottom at ~325. While this count is not invalidated, I will rather sit tight and see what happens.

Every EW counts should be confirmed by traditional TA and important EMAs.

A primary wave never stands alone, even in consolidation. this could be an A, but much more likely it is a primary.

If I see a primary wave where I expect one because of fundamentals, I'll forget the TA. Im NOT going to buy high to a lagging indicator, we can see with our own eyes.

[fr33d0miz3r]

A primary wave never stands alone, even in consolidation. this could be an A, but much more likely it is a primary.

If I see a primary wave where I expect one because of fundamentals, I'll forget the TA. Im NOT going to buy high to a lagging indicator, we can see with our own eyes.

"buy high" is somewhere around $1000  

[chessnut]

A primary wave never stands alone, even in consolidation. this could be an A, but much more likely it is a primary.

If I see a primary wave where I expect one because of fundamentals, I'll forget the TA. Im NOT going to buy high to a lagging indicator, we can see with our own eyes.

"buy high" is somewhere around $1000  

  MUAhahahaha

[chessnut]

[fr33d0miz3r]

I'm not buying while it's valid:

[chessnut]

I'm not buying while it's valid:

I guess we are trading on different time frames completely. Im a day trader and long term holder, If that situation unfolded, you can bet I'd be short the best of the way down with my 20% funds on BFX. The way I see it, is that If I can catch a third wave (as I have) a leveraged day trading position may suddenly become a long term position to hold on to.

[fr33d0miz3r]

I'm not buying while it's valid:

I guess we are trading on different time frames completely.

Probably. I usually open long/short positions for weeks at least.

[chessnut]

[chessnut]

possible 5th wave blow out case.

[chessnut]

do we have a primary on stamp?

[RyNinDaCleM]

do we have a primary on stamp?

I'm not really seeing 5 waves down for C unless it is a truncated fifth.

I only had one order filled at $490 with more down to $475

[chessnut]

I'm not really seeing 5 waves down for C unless it is a truncated fifth.

I only had one order filled at $490 with more down to $475

every day it looks more like a C wave... oh well. Ill hold until the we truly stall. plenty to be made short if this is a C wave. Today is the day if this is a fifth wave.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I suppose this truncated ending diagonal 5th is possible



...or the 4 is not yet complete

[chessnut]

queeq had an idea that we may be in wave II.... I think assuming that wave ii and iv were quite out of proportion.