CryptoWaves - Elliott Wave Analysis Blog

[Queeq]

Being it wave 4 from the 16th of April is almost invalidated.

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[chessnut]

Being it wave 4 from the 16th of April is almost invalidated.

if we can get a five wave to terminate here in the next 2 days say (seems we have just begun wave iii) we may have a pinpoint buy opportunity around 380-420. This would cause a great big H&S pattern, and call for a possible B wave interpretation, so we can have ABC off 339.

I do not see an interpretation that takes us to new lows any time soon. anybody?

[RyNinDaCleM]

Here is a USD version for those of us that can't convert it on the fly
Mine is slightly different, but should ultimately reach the same conclusion. The bull count is fully invalidated now, so I agree with chessnut' analysis of a 380-420 low for B.

[Queeq]

RyNinDaCleM , wave 2 cannot cross the start of wave 1 (the last wave structure).

Also, B subdivides to either zigzag, flat or triangle.

Edit: Oops, it's big B, all right. But I guess its end must be lower.

Still, it's possible we are in the end of bigger wave 2.

[CryptoWaves]

I guess I should stop making cross country flights for work. I was on a plane Thursday 4/10 during the recent sharp drop and I was on a plane last night during the other sharp drop.

My count from the previous post is invalid. The current count that I am tracking has this drop as wave (2). Price bounced nicely off of the 50% retrace of wave (1) at 443. Wave (2) could be done, or it will drop further to the 62% retrace at 419. I'll make a post sometime this afternoon after taking a closer look at the charts.

[chessnut]

What do ya'll think of this? since this news has unfolded surprisingly as an ABC wave, the buy target is closer now. looking for exhaustion above 400.

[chessnut]

to justify my short term view. we need a lot more consolidation if we have not capitulated.

[chessnut]

C wave is diverging, suggesting further that this is not a iii wave. 400 is critical support, fibs and historically. b wave was wedge, suggesting terminal movement. Im looking for a strong short term signal long, before targeting 500 again.

[windjc]

C wave is diverging, suggesting further that this is not a iii wave. 400 is critical support, fibs and historically. b wave was wedge, suggesting terminal movement. Im looking for a strong short term signal long, before targeting 500 again.

Again, I notice that you and others over at Tradingview are making your charts with the assumption that 340 was capitulation. Yes, I know, you put a red arrow pointing downward to act like you are looking both ways, but you give no long term bottom targets.

If you want to make helpful analysis, you should offer both views equally, even if you are secretly and biasedly rooting for us to go up.

You are going to have to redraw your charts if/when we go below 340. If you don't want to risk looking like fools - if you want anyone to listen to you the in future, you should hedge your analysis and give us the scenarios both ways.

[windjc]

why dont you get off the EW thread windjc, or post some EWA. sorry if I hurt your feelings.

No. Its just that people aren't taking your seriously. And I'm trying to tell you why. I'm trying to help you.

But you are apparently too butthurt to listen.

I made 40k in the last week doing the exact opposite of what you were telling people - unless somehow they could interpret that mysterious red arrow pointing down that you add to all your bullish EW chart patterns.

[windjc]

why dont you get off the EW thread windjc, or post some EWA. sorry if I hurt your feelings.

No. Its just that people aren't taking your seriously. And I'm trying to tell you why. I'm trying to help you.

But you are apparently too butthurt to listen.

I made 40k in the last week doing the exact opposite of what you were telling people - unless somehow they could interpret that mysterious red arrow pointing down that you add to all your bullish EW chart patterns.

well that's a load of crap.

sell a bunch right now then. Im telling you to buy.

I will sell the next rebound most likely. And I will let you know. One day, it might motivate you to make a more well rounded analysis.

[chessnut]

we have a complete count. the C wave was a weak impulsive, now we have a typical abc-abc-135 pattern. this is a tradable juncture with a lot of upside potential - I am long from 430. this bear run is very weak, and losing momentum rapidly.
Exit strategy is pending, if the impulsive becomes more aggressive, I would cut loss in the teens, but the trade is otherwise valid until 400 is broken.

[Mr. Net]

Please criticize:

Do you guys think we just hit point 2?

[Queeq]

I've already forgot about that chart
I think it's invalidated as C was too long.
Yea... And supposed B appeared much lower. Don't think that it could be extended flat.

[chessnut]

Do you guys think we just hit point 2?

I think we have begun a wave C, could be part of a 1-2-1-2 primary, or a correction up 600-700.

[Queeq]

Do you guys think we just hit point 2?

I think we have begun a wave C, could be part of a 1-2-1-2 primary, or a correction up 600-700.

We don't know really if that's C or (III). They are indistinguishable at this stage.  But I think it's more likely to be C because previous wave down was more like B.

What is 1-2-1-2? I know only 5 and 3 combinations. These one-twos should subdivide.

[chessnut]

Do you guys think we just hit point 2?

I think we have begun a wave C, could be part of a 1-2-1-2 primary, or a correction up 600-700.

We don't know really if that's C or (III). They are indistinguishable at this stage.  But I think it's more likely to be C because previous wave down was more like B.

What is 1-2-1-2? I know only 5 and 3 combinations. These one-twos should subdivide.

well 1-2-1-2 is a retrospecive form of primary, that looks just like an abc until wave a of the next leg turns around into a iii wave.
we had some really bad news yesterday, and the market has turned. this is not a short squeeze, I think it has fundamental drive. considering where we are in the larger picture, I am expecting a wave iii.

[RyNinDaCleM]

well 1-2-1-2 is a retrospecive form of primary, that looks just like an abc until wave a of the next leg turns around into a iii wave.
we had some really bad news yesterday, and the market has turned. this is not a short squeeze, I think it has fundamental drive. considering where we are in the larger picture, I am expecting a wave iii.

The two problems I see with this chart is that 1) your large C should sub-divide into 5 waves not 3(ABC).
2) is that your I off the 339 bottom is not 5 waves, imo. I suppose it can be if you really force it, but not with any kind of proper proportions.

Edit:
To help better explain the 1-2-1-2 to Queeq
It is the same as nested 1-2's Call it an extended 3rd. Ex. I, II, 1, 2, 3, 4, III, IV, V

[Queeq]

Oh, thanks, now I understood. At first I thought it's a subdivision pattern, but that were numbers of waves.

Regarding last major C on the last graph, it could be easily subdivided into an impulse. Bigger A @400 could be treated as 3-rd, following B @700 - as 4th wave. Some of the subdivisions are extended.

[chessnut]

The two problems I see with this chart is that 1) your large C should sub-divide into 5 waves not 3(ABC).
2) is that your I off the 339 bottom is not 5 waves, imo. I suppose it can be if you really force it, but not with any kind of proper proportions.

Edit:
To help better explain the 1-2-1-2 to Queeq
It is the same as nested 1-2's Call it an extended 3rd. Ex. I, II, 1, 2, 3, 4, III, IV, V

Im not banking on a primary wave, but the chart is tell me that alternatively a wave C is coming to 550 - 600. the market has turned unexpectedly (not to EW) after BAD news. it has fundamental drive.

my overall C wave divides into ABC. is that incorrect? abc - abc - abc is not uncommon?