Prediction: Breaking $500 within 24 hours

[K128kevin]

Some of you have seen my website which tries to predict bitcoin prices with software using neural networks:

www.btcpredictions.com

It successfully predicted the drop in price that happened yesterday morning (EST) and it was very accurate throughout the day. It also predicted this rise that we are seeing now, and it's saying that prices will go into the upper $400s, possibly hitting $500! Here is an image of the predictions as of 11am EST:



The software is not always this accurate, but it has been performing exceptionally well recently! I think that we will see prices over $500 within the next 24 hours.

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[spazzdla]

Hum... currently 449... hum.. I wouldn't bet against you.  Although I'd bet dollars to donuts china releases 2-4 bad news stories today in another attempt to drive the price down.

[zolace]

Hope your prediction is good!We need to see some rise on bitcoin value,some positive news ,not only negative ones.

[bryant.coleman]

It might break $500 for a few minutes, but will end up at 450-460 levels.

[binderclip]

Nice work - do you apply this methodology to other markets, like stocks and bonds?

[K128kevin]

Nice work - do you apply this methodology to other markets, like stocks and bonds?

I tried to do a dow jones prediction using a neural network, but the problem was that I was having trouble finding the most up to date data. I might revisit stock price predictions in the future though.

[K128kevin]

Looks like it changed its mind about hitting $500 =/ might just get to upper $400s. We'll find out soon.

[iraszl]

Cool project. Have you mapped previously predicted data to real data? Do you for example have a prediction from 20 days ago to check how it matched reality?

Posted about your project here: http://bitcoinowl.com/bitcoin-price-prediction

[PolarPoint]

So your neutral network predicts future trends based on past and current market behaviour?
How far into the past does it consider relevent?

[K128kevin]

Cool project. Have you mapped previously predicted data to real data? Do you for example have a prediction from 20 days ago to check how it matched reality?

Posted about your project here: http://bitcoinowl.com/bitcoin-price-prediction

Thanks for sharing it! I am planning on starting to collect/generate/display data for charts that will show predictions against actual prices. I am going to start that either tonight or tomorrow some time. A lot of people have been asking for something like that, and I think it would be interesting to see.

So your neutral network predicts future trends based on past and current market behaviour?
How far into the past does it consider relevent?

Yes, it trains on the historic bitstamp transaction data, which consists of all transactions for the past (about) 3 years. In order to determine what future prices will be, it looks at a sample of data leading up to the current price. So for example, the 24 hour prediction neural network looks at 60 average hourly prices in a row and tries to predict the next 24.

I experimented a lot with different distances into the past that it would look to make predictions. I tried having it just look at one day's data to predict the next, and I tried having it look at like 30 days worth of data to predict 1 day in the future, and I found that around 60 hours tended to work the best for the 24 hour one. The 5 day one looks at about 20 days, and the 20 day one looks at the past 150 days.

[kashish948]

I think it will break 5000

[bryant.coleman]

Still at 430-440 levels. Unfortunately, your prediction has failed. 

[K128kevin]

Still at 430-440 levels. Unfortunately, your prediction has failed. 

It's been only 10 hours, not 24. Plus it predicted this dip along the way, so actually the prediction so far has been very accurate and extremely successful

It has lowered the predicted peak price, but we'll see what happens.

[binderclip]

Nice work - do you apply this methodology to other markets, like stocks and bonds?

I tried to do a dow jones prediction using a neural network, but the problem was that I was having trouble finding the most up to date data. I might revisit stock price predictions in the future though.

You'd probably have to pay to get the up to date data.

[HCLivess]

I have been analysing the market since January and this overlaps with what I expect.
Perfect tool, thank you!

[softron]

So whats the forecast for the month.

[K128kevin]

I have been analysing the market since January and this overlaps with what I expect.
Perfect tool, thank you!

Really? That's awesome! I'm going to set it up today to start saving predictions and match them up against historic data on a chart. What method(s) have you been using to analyze the market?

[Cheesus]

So whats the forecast for the month.

Cloudy with possible bitcoinfall :>

[5thStreetResearch]

Ummm can we set up an escrow and wager on this?  Will give reasonable odds.

[redwhite037]

Well, so much for that prediction, looks like we're sideways trading between 430 and 450, but probably going to re-test 400 any day now. I'm looking to buy at 410 and 360.