Polymarket.com - Bets on any events (politics, sports, crypto markets, and more)

[acroman08]

If this bill is conveniently targeting sport markets only and leaving the rest of them alone, then it would be almost a confirmation there is some lobbying behind the origin of this bill and the fact it is getting pushed into law.
Sport betting has become very popular and profitable in the United States after all, since it was made legal by some states in 2018.
It would not be very crazy to assume Kalshi and Polymarket have become too inconvenient for some FIAT bookies and casinos, who are seeing their volume being taken away from them in favor of Polymarket and Kalshi.

Politics and money in the United States seem to be always go one close to the other.

That's the look of it, and to be honest, it's not really surprising(as I mentioned before). Companies lobbying in Congress for their interest is not uncommon. Polymarket and Kalshi have been doing it, it's also probably the reason why they were able to grow this much in such a short time. Also, if you didn't know, Trump jr.(Trump's son) is connected to Kalshi, so you know that these prediction markets have connections in high places in politics.

It would be funny if Kalshi and Polymarket put a betting market on whether the bill that was introduced against them will pass or not.

[Dump3er]

Anyways... I have got the impression there could be hidden interest behind a ban like this one, specially from regulated bookies in the USA which see Polymarket and Kalshi as competition...

-
Here's the article in question.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/21/prediction-market-kalshi-polymarket-casino-gaming-lobby-congress.html

If this bill is conveniently targeting sport markets only and leaving the rest of them alone, then it would be almost a confirmation there is some lobbying behind the origin of this bill and the fact it is getting pushed into law.
Sport betting has become very popular and profitable in the United States after all, since it was made legal by some states in 2018.
It would not be very crazy to assume Kalshi and Polymarket have become too inconvenient for some FIAT bookies and casinos, who are seeing their volume being taken away from them in favor of Polymarket and Kalshi.

Politics and money in the United States seem to be always go one close to the other.

Lobbying in the sports betting industry is probably a real thing by now. It would surprise me otherwise. I think the main point they were trying to make a while ago is that these prediction market places aren't regulated the same way that bookmakers are regulated. They don't offer these markets as sports bets, but as financial derivatives and that is why the CFTC is involved. This means they can offer these contracts under better conditions than bookmakers and Kalshi and Polymarket argue that this is not about gambling, but about P2P negotiated future event contracts. It sounds weird to me to be honest because ultimately it is gambling.

The reason why these congressmen go for a ban is that from a legal perspective, achieving a ban is simpler than setting up some sort of newly mixed regulation specifically tailored and passed for these types of contracts that Kalshi and Polymarket offer. I am sure that lobbying is involved though. It would be shocking if not since the gambling industry has become massively powerful.

I think Kalshi and Polymarket could lose this if they insist on these contracts being legitimate financial innovations. It sounds too imaginative to me. Perhaps they should rather accept to go through licensing processes as I don't think courts will decide that these contracts do not count as gambling.

[Hispo]

If this bill is conveniently targeting sport markets only and leaving the rest of them alone, then it would be almost a confirmation there is some lobbying behind the origin of this bill and the fact it is getting pushed into law.
Sport betting has become very popular and profitable in the United States after all, since it was made legal by some states in 2018.
It would not be very crazy to assume Kalshi and Polymarket have become too inconvenient for some FIAT bookies and casinos, who are seeing their volume being taken away from them in favor of Polymarket and Kalshi.

Politics and money in the United States seem to be always go one close to the other.

That's the look of it, and to be honest, it's not really surprising(as I mentioned before). Companies lobbying in Congress for their interest is not uncommon. Polymarket and Kalshi have been doing it, it's also probably the reason why they were able to grow this much in such a short time. Also, if you didn't know, Trump jr.(Trump's son) is connected to Kalshi, so you know that these prediction markets have connections in high places in politics.

It would be funny if Kalshi and Polymarket put a betting market on whether the bill that was introduced against them will pass or not.

Anyways... I have got the impression there could be hidden interest behind a ban like this one, specially from regulated bookies in the USA which see Polymarket and Kalshi as competition...

-
Here's the article in question.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/21/prediction-market-kalshi-polymarket-casino-gaming-lobby-congress.html

If this bill is conveniently targeting sport markets only and leaving the rest of them alone, then it would be almost a confirmation there is some lobbying behind the origin of this bill and the fact it is getting pushed into law.
Sport betting has become very popular and profitable in the United States after all, since it was made legal by some states in 2018.
It would not be very crazy to assume Kalshi and Polymarket have become too inconvenient for some FIAT bookies and casinos, who are seeing their volume being taken away from them in favor of Polymarket and Kalshi.

Politics and money in the United States seem to be always go one close to the other.

Lobbying in the sports betting industry is probably a real thing by now. It would surprise me otherwise. I think the main point they were trying to make a while ago is that these prediction market places aren't regulated the same way that bookmakers are regulated. They don't offer these markets as sports bets, but as financial derivatives and that is why the CFTC is involved. This means they can offer these contracts under better conditions than bookmakers and Kalshi and Polymarket argue that this is not about gambling, but about P2P negotiated future event contracts. It sounds weird to me to be honest because ultimately it is gambling.

The reason why these congressmen go for a ban is that from a legal perspective, achieving a ban is simpler than setting up some sort of newly mixed regulation specifically tailored and passed for these types of contracts that Kalshi and Polymarket offer. I am sure that lobbying is involved though. It would be shocking if not since the gambling industry has become massively powerful.

I think Kalshi and Polymarket could lose this if they insist on these contracts being legitimate financial innovations. It sounds too imaginative to me. Perhaps they should rather accept to go through licensing processes as I don't think courts will decide that these contracts do not count as gambling.

So basically we could be witnessing a battle between lobbyist, some in favor of Kalshi and Polymarket to compete within the ecosystem of sportbetting and other lobbyist which got hired by FIAT and traditional betting platforms, because their market dominance is getting put on testing because of the popularity of Kalshi and Polymarket.

I don't know what you think about all this scenario, but I think there is a very high chance those FIAT bookies will succeed in convincing those lawmakers to exclude polymarket and Kalshi, they have more time in the market, they are more regulated and they alledgelly have more money than these new competitors.

It would be a serious strike against them.

[Lucano]

I have read the 5-minute BTC market situation, but it turns out it is not in line with what the analysis says. Polymarket is not friendly for manual bettors, especially 5-15 minute price predictions because what I see is manipulation in the final seconds. This prediction is profitable for bot users because what I see is almost simultaneously securing a profitable position. Are there any bettors who use bot?

[Hispo]

I have read the 5-minute BTC market situation, but it turns out it is not in line with what the analysis says. Polymarket is not friendly for manual bettors, especially 5-15 minute price predictions because what I see is manipulation in the final seconds. This prediction is profitable for bot users because what I see is almost simultaneously securing a profitable position. Are there any bettors who use bot?

I don't personally use bots for Polymarket, but it is widely known that the 5 minute BTC market in Polymarket is completely plagued with bots seeking to get long term profitability for their handlers, that is not a secret.
They are basically bots which buy massive positions when there is almost a 100% chance for the position to become a reality, so they go with a high amount at very low multipliers, rinse and repeat and they have basically gotten a money printing machine in the long term.

Even though there will be occasions such strategy will fail, in the majority of the times it will turn out a profit for the manager of the bots.

I am not even sure if the use of bots is allowed by Polymarket, by the way.

[Wind_FURY]

What happened to him? He obviously lost $4643.17 for betting based on a post he read in X.

No one would follow up on someone who lost money. We merely leave them alone to lick their wounds. Although, that amount of money might merely be small for that person.

I totally forgot about the 2011 guy with the Argentina 3-2 score prediction and every one thinking he was magical because he chose two strong teams like Spain and Argentina like it was a super hard prediction to make

Gambler streamers and influencers make a lot of money so he will be fine even after losing $4600 in this prediction bet. The views he received and new following already paid if they use his link to gamble

THEN is it probably often the best decision to ignore those people? Because they're definitely farming us for attention, no? We PLEBS are the product of those people. They should probably give their followers more value by giving them more incentives, no?

 

I have read the 5-minute BTC market situation, but it turns out it is not in line with what the analysis says. Polymarket is not friendly for manual bettors, especially 5-15 minute price predictions because what I see is manipulation in the final seconds. This prediction is profitable for bot users because what I see is almost simultaneously securing a profitable position. Are there any bettors who use bot?

If you have no edge, then AVOID the market/game, UNLESS you want to gamble the money that's better invested by HODLing Bitcoin.

[hd49728]

Gambler streamers and influencers make a lot of money so he will be fine even after losing $4600 in this prediction bet. The views he received and new following already paid if they use his link to gamble

It's popular marketing method used by gambling companies by hiring celebrities, influencers on social media to work for them. Live streaming their bets, then results are big wins, which can be very attractive for outsiders. So their companies will get firstly more traffics, and at the end can get more users as well as more money into their casinos for betting.

THEN is it probably often the best decision to ignore those people? Because they're definitely farming us for attention, no? We PLEBS are the product of those people. They should probably give their followers more value by giving them more incentives, no?

Just depends.

Some people don't care about social media, celebrities and influencers but most people among the crowd take it into serious consideration. That explains why there is such marketing method that is favorite and use popularly by many companies, not limited to online casinos.

[Dump3er]

-

So basically we could be witnessing a battle between lobbyist, some in favor of Kalshi and Polymarket to compete within the ecosystem of sportbetting and other lobbyist which got hired by FIAT and traditional betting platforms, because their market dominance is getting put on testing because of the popularity of Kalshi and Polymarket.

I don't know what you think about all this scenario, but I think there is a very high chance those FIAT bookies will succeed in convincing those lawmakers to exclude polymarket and Kalshi, they have more time in the market, they are more regulated and they alledgelly have more money than these new competitors.

It would be a serious strike against them.

This is a good question and at first glance I thought you are probably correct that FIAT bookies have more leverage and will push lawmakers towards banning or strictly limiting competing platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, but then it came to my mind again that it is not just the ordinary guys using those prediction markets. Around all those major events in the last few months, like the Iran war and other things that happened, analyses have shown that strange things are going on on those prediction market platforms. Unusually high amounts were placed on outcomes that nobody except for insders could have known about.

I believe this tells us that powerful people like politicians or businessmen or whoever else with influence in the world, actually have an incentive to have these platforms up and running. The US administration knows no limits right now and you probably about Trump's plans to sell early "access to posts from influential Truth Social ‌accounts, such as President Donald Trump’s, whose posts often move global markets."

Further, there were those reports about Polymarket accounts making millions with information that had not yet been public back then as I mentioned above. As long as these platforms offer advantages for those with early access to crucial information, I don't think they will ever be shut down or regulated to a point where continuations is not sustainable.

Regardless of how the fight between prediction market platforms and FIAT bookies ends, I am curious to see how courts will decide. Kalshi and Polymarket argue that their products are financial contracts whereas the bookmakers say that it is no different from sports bets. I can see both sides having good points here, but I believe that Kalshi and Polymarket will have to accept some losses at court along the way because right now under the regulation of the CFTC, they benefit from some advantages and the government is probably mostly interested in taxes, and right now, if I understand it correctly, Kalshi and Polymarket have tax advantages because of how they have positioned themselves thus far. In other words, the government has a strong incentive to crack down on them but only to the point until where they can maximize tax income.

[Wind_FURY]

Gambler streamers and influencers make a lot of money so he will be fine even after losing $4600 in this prediction bet. The views he received and new following already paid if they use his link to gamble

It's popular marketing method used by gambling companies by hiring celebrities, influencers on social media to work for them. Live streaming their bets, then results are big wins, which can be very attractive for outsiders. So their companies will get firstly more traffics, and at the end can get more users as well as more money into their casinos for betting.

Plus aren't those celebrities and influencers getting paid to gamble in those gambling services? If an influencer is getting paid $20,000, then show everyone that he "made a bet" for $5,000, he/she has $15,000 in his/her pocket.

 

It's a scam in exchange for your attention.

THEN is it probably often the best decision to ignore those people? Because they're definitely farming us for attention, no? We PLEBS are the product of those people. They should probably give their followers more value by giving them more incentives, no?

Just depends.

Some people don't care about social media, celebrities and influencers but most people among the crowd take it into serious consideration. That explains why there is such marketing method that is favorite and use popularly by many companies, not limited to online casinos.

It may never be stopped, but we should tell our fellow plebs that they should have complete awareness about the situation.

[ultrloa]

Gambler streamers and influencers make a lot of money so he will be fine even after losing $4600 in this prediction bet. The views he received and new following already paid if they use his link to gamble

It's popular marketing method used by gambling companies by hiring celebrities, influencers on social media to work for them. Live streaming their bets, then results are big wins, which can be very attractive for outsiders. So their companies will get firstly more traffics, and at the end can get more users as well as more money into their casinos for betting.

Plus aren't those celebrities and influencers getting paid to gamble in those gambling services? If an influencer is getting paid $20,000, then show everyone that he "made a bet" for $5,000, he/she has $15,000 in his/her pocket.

 

It's a scam in exchange for your attention.

Exactly, because most of the bets made by those influencers do not posses risk for them, since everything is for the show.

Then if it really happens that the bet small amount from huge payment they get, this is not actually gambling, but rather this is just another part of their advertisement done with their partner gambling platform.

This is rampant and many celebrities also influencers accept this type of set up, their viewers is really the one exposed with risk and basically those influencers is simply fooling their fans and hide their intention by using the entertainment word.

[Dump3er]

Gambler streamers and influencers make a lot of money so he will be fine even after losing $4600 in this prediction bet. The views he received and new following already paid if they use his link to gamble

It's popular marketing method used by gambling companies by hiring celebrities, influencers on social media to work for them. Live streaming their bets, then results are big wins, which can be very attractive for outsiders. So their companies will get firstly more traffics, and at the end can get more users as well as more money into their casinos for betting.

Plus aren't those celebrities and influencers getting paid to gamble in those gambling services? If an influencer is getting paid $20,000, then show everyone that he "made a bet" for $5,000, he/she has $15,000 in his/her pocket.

 

It's a scam in exchange for your attention.

-

Just depends.

Some people don't care about social media, celebrities and influencers but most people among the crowd take it into serious consideration. That explains why there is such marketing method that is favorite and use popularly by many companies, not limited to online casinos.

It may never be stopped, but we should tell our fellow plebs that they should have complete awareness about the situation.

What you are discussing here is the very first thing that comes to my mind when influencers with large followings post about their allegedly placed mega bets. Every time when Drake posts about the next one million dollar bet, I would really like to find out how much of that money comes from his pocket and the first answer probably is "none". He usually posts those things a good while before the event because that may encourage other people to place the same bet as they think it is safer when someone is going big like that. But the real effect is that these news are spread all over the internet. All social media report about it, people share it and forward it, online magazines cover it, websites like yahoo.com publish it. There is a huge multiplier effect for Stake.com when they have these partnerships with influencers with huge followings. And since Drake has made a name for himself by now for placing those bets, people pay attention to it and it doesn't matter whether they like him or not. Actually it is good if they don't like him because when he loses, all the talk about Stake and Drake is again going through the roof.

[o555355]

Hello for all!
I need help!
Polymarket has been illegally withholding my money 10015$ for a full day now.

Yesterday, I made a deposit exclusively from a wallet whose transaction history is linked solely to Polymarket. There have never been any other transactions on the wallet-only Polymarket.

A day ago, I withdrew funds from my Polymarket account to USDT (Arbitrum), I then decided to deposit those same funds, but my deposit was blocked.

Txid(hash) - 0x88b5099421812fe4ddb251626e4613706f9d5a935c6208f6846119241ef35699

I’m simply being ignored in the support chat, I haven’t received a reply for about a day. There was just one response stating that the funds were under review, and nothing but silence since then.

Why the hell is there any kind of check going on at all, when my crypto wallet is associated exclusively with Polymarket?

Please help me!

https://i.ibb.co/tpcfmLCf/IMG-2691.jpg

[julerz12]

Hello for all!
I need help!
Polymarket has been illegally withholding my money 10015$ for a full day now.

This isn't the official thread of Polymarket; it was only meant to discuss this platform. They don't have any official representative here, and with that, none of us would be able to help you.
Sorry if that's not something you'd like to hear, but that's the truth of it. The only way to solve your issue is with the help of their support staff.
This is the transaction, correct? https://arbiscan.io/tx/0x88b5099421812fe4ddb251626e4613706f9d5a935c6208f6846119241ef35699
Looks fairly new; maybe just give it a little time? Perhaps they are doing some checks 'cause like you said, you withdrew it and then deposited it back again; that sort of action might trigger additional checks by their team. Perhaps they just want to know why you decided to deposit it back again.

[stadus]

Please help me!

So this screenshot confirms that it was received on the Polymarket side, but we are not here to guess what really happened. It would be best to contact them and ask why the deposit is still under review so you can get the actual answer. And if you want to update us on the progress, you can also provide more screenshots.

[o48o]

Lobbying in the sports betting industry is probably a real thing by now. It would surprise me otherwise. I think the main point they were trying to make a while ago is that these prediction market places aren't regulated the same way that bookmakers are regulated. They don't offer these markets as sports bets, but as financial derivatives and that is why the CFTC is involved. This means they can offer these contracts under better conditions than bookmakers and Kalshi and Polymarket argue that this is not about gambling, but about P2P negotiated future event contracts. It sounds weird to me to be honest because ultimately it is gambling.

The reason why these congressmen go for a ban is that from a legal perspective, achieving a ban is simpler than setting up some sort of newly mixed regulation specifically tailored and passed for these types of contracts that Kalshi and Polymarket offer. I am sure that lobbying is involved though. It would be shocking if not since the gambling industry has become massively powerful.

I think Kalshi and Polymarket could lose this if they insist on these contracts being legitimate financial innovations. It sounds too imaginative to me. Perhaps they should rather accept to go through licensing processes as I don't think courts will decide that these contracts do not count as gambling.

When has that not been a real thing?

Every industry that has regulators setting limits on them has always had lobbying behind them. And because of that there is at least supposed to be oversight for anti-corruption.
Lobbying itself isn't illegal, but it can be illegal and often is with corrupt governments, and prediction markets are openly trying to infiltrate into high positions in government.

I can see several ways this going south, but at that point prediction market companies have so much money that even huge lawsuits won't bring them down as a company.

[iv4n]

Hello for all!
I need help!
Polymarket has been illegally withholding my money 10015$ for a full day now.

This isn't the official thread of Polymarket; it was only meant to discuss this platform. They don't have any official representative here, and with that, none of us would be able to help you.
Sorry if that's not something you'd like to hear, but that's the truth of it. The only way to solve your issue is with the help of their support staff.
This is the transaction, correct? https://arbiscan.io/tx/0x88b5099421812fe4ddb251626e4613706f9d5a935c6208f6846119241ef35699
Looks fairly new; maybe just give it a little time? Perhaps they are doing some checks 'cause like you said, you withdrew it and then deposited it back again; that sort of action might trigger additional checks by their team. Perhaps they just want to know why you decided to deposit it back again.

He opened a new thread, and by his comments there, the issue has been resolved. I guess he was just impatient, and I think he is the first of many... People will look for ways to resolve their issues with Polymarket, and they will come here. Of course, nobody from here will be able to help...

I can see several ways this going south, but at that point prediction market companies have so much money that even huge lawsuits won't bring them down as a company.

They have a lot of money & huge support. By now, Polymarket is a huge money-making machine, normally, some want to bring them down... and I guess the entire story is pretty interesting to observe. Who knows what will happen, but I believe they will have turbulent times with all the lawsuits around...

[Bushdark]

~Snipped~

This isn't the official thread of Polymarket; it was only meant to discuss this platform. They don't have any official representative here, and with that, none of us would be able to help you.
Sorry if that's not something you'd like to hear, but that's the truth of it. The only way to solve your issue is with the help of their support staff.
This is the transaction, correct? https://arbiscan.io/tx/0x88b5099421812fe4ddb251626e4613706f9d5a935c6208f6846119241ef35699
Looks fairly new; maybe just give it a little time? Perhaps they are doing some checks 'cause like you said, you withdrew it and then deposited it back again; that sort of action might trigger additional checks by their team. Perhaps they just want to know why you decided to deposit it back again.

Polymarket has no official representative here which is correct. I don't know if this has been resolved at the end of the complainant but we have not seen any update concerning the issue yet. The transaction has already been successful but if the Polymarket bot had decided to check the transaction thoroughly before reflecting on his account, that should be a security check since it could look suspicious to them why he withdraw and deposited similar amount too soon. Good luck to the complainant cause I believed the transaction must have been approved.

[pawel7777]

UK's Guardian and FCA seem to be really concerned about the type of bets that are available on prediction markets, namely on Polymarket:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/oct/03/uk-polymarket-hsbc-lloyds-failures-banks
In the article, there are references to this Polymarket bet:
https://polymarket.com/event/which-banks-will-fail-by-end-of-2026
The chances for any of the listed banks to collapse is very low, and I don't think anyone would be willing to put any serious money on a "Yes" bet, but it triggered some discussion around whether market prediction sites need more global regulations, as they pose a big risk of insider trading and also could make a dent on the biggest institutions' reputation and the trust people have in them.

As I said before, some of the bets offered on Polymarket seem to be not well-thought-through, but in this particular case (i.e. the bet in question), I don't see how that is a problem.

[noorman0]

The NBA recently announced partnerships with Polymarket and Kalshi. Key points:

The agreements with Kalshi and Polymarket put in place significant integrity protections for NBA-related markets, including limitations on permissible markets, affirmative prohibitions on trading NBA event contracts by league and team personnel, and information-sharing obligations relating to investigations and suspicious trading.

They also stated that they intend to expand their partnerships to include a number of other prediction market platforms. It appears the NBA views prediction markets as an emerging, fast-growing trend that warrants monitoring.

[Hispo]

I have read the 5-minute BTC market situation, but it turns out it is not in line with what the analysis says. Polymarket is not friendly for manual bettors, especially 5-15 minute price predictions because what I see is manipulation in the final seconds. This prediction is profitable for bot users because what I see is almost simultaneously securing a profitable position. Are there any bettors who use bot?

Polymarket was obviously originally conceived as a way for people to manually bet on events and in the price of Bitcoin in the short term, but lately there have been a lot of people who have been abusing bot and AI agents in order to try to get long term profitability in the 5 minute markets for Bitcoin and other alternative currencies.
There are a lot of bettors on Polymarket a who use bots, and also there are whales which abuse their holdings to turn the market to their favor, by opening or closing positions while they are getting on Polymarket.

This is not longer about entertainment, this has become a literal money printing machine for some people who have the required tools and capital.