BTC Sentiment Poll for September

[liasbaa]

It's interesting that most answers said "no" to the end of bear market despite the fact that August proved bear market is over and also September itself was actually a decent month. Even though in the first two weeks we saw some drops (the correction after breaking $80k) but the second half of September was mostly rises and now we enter October in a strong way with breaking $85k resistance and as I'm typing this price is almost $87k.

You mentioned strong October, yes I agree with you that this month may be the expected period of bull run as we saw last year. Bitcoin reached its ATH last October and the following months have been spent in price fluctuations. The last two months have been the initial stage of a possible breakout for Bitcoin and strong October will be a possible month to exceed $100k.

We are not talking about a bear market now because we have entered a strong October and are in the initial phase of a possible bull run. This period of overcoming resistance is very important for us and it is necessary to increase Bitcoin holdings. The main strategy to be prepared for any possible price is to run DCA regularly.

[SatsPH]

It's interesting that most answers said "no" to the end of bear market despite the fact that August proved bear market is over and also September itself was actually a decent month. Even though in the first two weeks we saw some drops (the correction after breaking $80k) but the second half of September was mostly rises and now we enter October in a strong way with breaking $85k resistance and as I'm typing this price is almost $87k.

It's because there could be a lot of old timers here in the community that still base everything on the 4 year cycle. That's why even if that huge 25% increase last August and then last month's 7% is nothing to them as they are holding on that old belief.

But I guess you can't blame them, as the saying goes, "it's hard to teach old dog new trick".

No offense to those OG here, but I guess Bitcoin market has matured already and not going into that cycle.

[LUCKMCFLY]

The weapon to actively survive in the market is DCA, where the priority should be to accumulate Bitcoin regularly, regardless of the price decline or increase. A sustainable strategy to increase Bitcoin holdings before the price increases too much.

I agree with you; it's the best-known secret weapon of the old school, and it guarantees we'll stay active in the market. It's the best approach you can take. However, many use DCA as their sole weapon, and that's not wrong. I personally love DCA; besides buying on dips and sharp corrections, it's a wonderful strategy.

Some traders only care about buying and then holding, which isn't bad, but I believe that from September through December, the strategy should continue to focus on increasing our accumulation. At any moment, it can go up and reach a new all-time high, but if it goes down, wow, we should definitely take advantage.

[free-bit.co.in]

It's because there could be a lot of old timers here in the community that still base everything on the 4 year cycle. That's why even if that huge 25% increase last August and then last month's 7% is nothing to them as they are holding on that old belief.

But I guess you can't blame them, as the saying goes, "it's hard to teach old dog new trick".

No offense to those OG here, but I guess Bitcoin market has matured already and not going into that cycle.

I'd say that's simply being cautious, not necessarily because they are stubborn or refusing to accept that the market has matured. The market is unpredictable by nature, and everyone has their own view and way of looking at it.

Take you for example, you believe bear market over. But what makes you so sure? There is no guarantee of that. Anything can happen.

Btw @tokeweed, today's already Oct 2nd. We are all waiting on your October prediction thread;D

[Sobz]

It's interesting that most answers said "no" to the end of bear market despite the fact that August proved bear market is over and also September itself was actually a decent month. Even though in the first two weeks we saw some drops (the correction after breaking $80k) but the second half of September was mostly rises and now we enter October in a strong way with breaking $85k resistance and as I'm typing this price is almost $87k.

The end of the bear market was very clear because at a time the price of Bitcoin was not going dip consistently and the price movements wasn't that stable just as some people complained.  The way at which the price of Bitcoin was moving was a sign of the end of the bear market because bitcoin price cant be increasing consistently to higher amounts and suddenly go dips just like the dips that occurs during the bear market.  Their was sign of the bull market in the movement of the price of Bitcoin.

[pooya87]

It's interesting that most answers said "no" to the end of bear market despite the fact that August proved bear market is over and also September itself was actually a decent month. Even though in the first two weeks we saw some drops (the correction after breaking $80k) but the second half of September was mostly rises and now we enter October in a strong way with breaking $85k resistance and as I'm typing this price is almost $87k.

It's because there could be a lot of old timers here in the community that still base everything on the 4 year cycle. That's why even if that huge 25% increase last August and then last month's 7% is nothing to them as they are holding on that old belief.

But I guess you can't blame them, as the saying goes, "it's hard to teach old dog new trick".

No offense to those OG here, but I guess Bitcoin market has matured already and not going into that cycle.

I'm an "old timer" who also bases everything on the 4-year cycle model but I guess I've "learned new tricks" too

The model itself doesn't have to be wrong, I still believe that it is a valid model. The only thing is that the negative changes in the global economy (pandemic, recession, climate change, wars, food crisis, more recession, energy crisis, even more recession) has had significant effects on bitcoin market as a whole and consequently it has changed the way the good ol' 4-year cycles take place. The cycles have become smaller with still sudden drops but no massive bubbles that we are used to seeing.

[aoluain]

Yea I think that was the general consensus that the 4 year cycles would become less "chaotic"
and with smaller swings up and down.

Also I think there are a lot of global issues still in play, threat of more recession, food shortages,
Oil shortages, petrodollar weakening and obvously the Elephant in the room the US economy, and
if that takes a nose dive all bets are off as regards what will happen to Bitcoin, Gold and other
stocks, shares, assets etc.

There is no doubt that September's market has been affected by the current geopolitical issues
but to what extent IDK.

[DanWalker]

It's because there could be a lot of old timers here in the community that still base everything on the 4 year cycle. That's why even if that huge 25% increase last August and then last month's 7% is nothing to them as they are holding on that old belief.

But I guess you can't blame them, as the saying goes, "it's hard to teach old dog new trick".

No offense to those OG here, but I guess Bitcoin market has matured already and not going into that cycle.

I'm an "old timer" who also bases everything on the 4-year cycle model but I guess I've "learned new tricks" too

The model itself doesn't have to be wrong, I still believe that it is a valid model. The only thing is that the negative changes in the global economy (pandemic, recession, climate change, wars, food crisis, more recession, energy crisis, even more recession) has had significant effects on bitcoin market as a whole and consequently it has changed the way the good ol' 4-year cycles take place. The cycles have become smaller with still sudden drops but no massive bubbles that we are used to seeing.

Bitcoin topped out in 10/2025 and has been declining for the past 10 months. So basically, the cycle still repeated, just the way it played out has changed.
If I recall correctly, there were threads earlier this year arguing this bear market would be different, shallower or shorter...and some investors backed that idea while others didn't.

Anyone who's been watching market closely over the past year will have noticed that macro factors are now having more influence than any model. So I don't think many people would be surprised, if bear market has really ended like you said.

To be fair though, nobody can say which side is right at this point.

[SatsPH]

It's interesting that most answers said "no" to the end of bear market despite the fact that August proved bear market is over and also September itself was actually a decent month. Even though in the first two weeks we saw some drops (the correction after breaking $80k) but the second half of September was mostly rises and now we enter October in a strong way with breaking $85k resistance and as I'm typing this price is almost $87k.

It's because there could be a lot of old timers here in the community that still base everything on the 4 year cycle. That's why even if that huge 25% increase last August and then last month's 7% is nothing to them as they are holding on that old belief.

But I guess you can't blame them, as the saying goes, "it's hard to teach old dog new trick".

No offense to those OG here, but I guess Bitcoin market has matured already and not going into that cycle.

I'm an "old timer" who also bases everything on the 4-year cycle model but I guess I've "learned new tricks" too

The model itself doesn't have to be wrong, I still believe that it is a valid model. The only thing is that the negative changes in the global economy (pandemic, recession, climate change, wars, food crisis, more recession, energy crisis, even more recession) has had significant effects on bitcoin market as a whole and consequently it has changed the way the good ol' 4-year cycles take place. The cycles have become smaller with still sudden drops but no massive bubbles that we are used to seeing.

I do hope that I didn't offend you with my words  , but I just used it out of respect on other members here who have been in this community for too long as compare to myself who are just a newbie in Bitcoin and crypto in general.

And it's good though to hear that at least you are open minded about how the 4 year cycle is and that you have learn something new every time that it had happened. There could still be some who still insists on the cycle holding on though, but that's there stand and it's hard to convince them.

[Taskford]

It's interesting that most answers said "no" to the end of bear market despite the fact that August proved bear market is over and also September itself was actually a decent month. Even though in the first two weeks we saw some drops (the correction after breaking $80k) but the second half of September was mostly rises and now we enter October in a strong way with breaking $85k resistance and as I'm typing this price is almost $87k.

It's because there could be a lot of old timers here in the community that still base everything on the 4 year cycle. That's why even if that huge 25% increase last August and then last month's 7% is nothing to them as they are holding on that old belief.

But I guess you can't blame them, as the saying goes, "it's hard to teach old dog new trick".

No offense to those OG here, but I guess Bitcoin market has matured already and not going into that cycle.

I'm an "old timer" who also bases everything on the 4-year cycle model but I guess I've "learned new tricks" too

The model itself doesn't have to be wrong, I still believe that it is a valid model. The only thing is that the negative changes in the global economy (pandemic, recession, climate change, wars, food crisis, more recession, energy crisis, even more recession) has had significant effects on bitcoin market as a whole and consequently it has changed the way the good ol' 4-year cycles take place. The cycles have become smaller with still sudden drops but no massive bubbles that we are used to seeing.

I think lots of people still look at that cycle as their basis, since that situation actually did not disappear. Market just evolve that's why we have seen so many changes. Before posted their concerns about those huge pumps and call it up as a bubble.

But with current situation and wide adoption happening those situation now give much bigger effect on the market, including those global shocks happening in the world.

Bitcoin is maturing and those external factors are now shaping or decide on how it moves.