2014 USD/mBTC Price Prediction Contest

[sgbett]

My phone sent me a message today, taunting me "Orange is the new black Season 2 on Netflix now!" 

[dnaleor]

Also very excited to know how high the price needs to be to get my max points again
But don't worry, I fully understand that technical problems can happen, I can wait... (I don't have the money to influcence the exchange rate to be in the exact spot anyway) 

[sgbett]

hello. is all ok? my loins yearn for orange numbers

[wachtwoord]

hello. is all ok? my loins yearn for orange numbers

lol, I'm rooting for prices going up anyway. I can do that without knowing how much my score will suffer exactly

[rpietila]

The second prediction round results are here!

We have 8 entries in the game, and all submitted a prediction for all 7 months (price in last day of June, July, ... December).

The summary of the monthly predictions is as follows:

Arithmetic average is the simple average of the weighted simple average of all the predictions. The high values affect this a lot, for which reason it is generally a rather high figure, even for the nearest months.

Geometric average is the weighted simple average of the geometric average of all the predictions, scaled to 100% (due to geometric averaging, the sum of the geometric averages is only about 50%). This is what I would use as the consensus average.

Median is the midpoint of the probability density (geometric averages used), and would be near the consensus "most likely case".

Mean is the slot with the highest probability (geometric), and would be near the consensus "most likely case" as well.

Months go from June to December. mBTC, decimal comma.

I will send the "orange sheet" to sgbett and he can distribute it to the contestants.

Code:

arith ave	5,77	6,67	7,47	8,19	8,74	9,82	10,87
geom ave	0,95	1,15	1,35	1,59	1,62	3,08	4,45
median  	0,75	0,84	0,94	1,06	1,06	1,19	1,33
mode	        0,75	0,84	1,06	1,06	1,19	1,50	1,50

[wachtwoord]

No new contestants joined then. Interesting.

[rpietila]

No new contestants joined then. Interesting.

I did not have time to promote it. There is now a good head start for the current players as they have forecasted 15/36 rounds. On the other hand, there are some predictions that are bordering elimination (bluemoon is busted if it hits $4 in 2014-8-31, which imo is a very realistic possibility, and wachtwoord is almost surely out by then )

Next month let's suck some new blood in, shall we?

[sgbett]

chompity chomp. i love oranges!

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByF9G8exBPg7R2tzeE1uRks2d28/edit?usp=sharing

[wachtwoord]

No new contestants joined then. Interesting.

I did not have time to promote it. There is now a good head start for the current players as they have forecasted 15/36 rounds. On the other hand, there are some predictions that are bordering elimination (bluemoon is busted if it hits $4 in 2014-8-31, which imo is a very realistic possibility, and wachtwoord is almost surely out by then )

Next month let's suck some new blood in, shall we?

 

I want to be out by then!

This contest is the cheapest hedge I ever bought

[wachtwoord]

If we stay under $1k in June I'll reach round 3 at least

[dnaleor]

Next month let's suck some new blood in, shall we?

I'll do a bump in my prediction game for your game

[Benjig]

Se if there would be a new contest for the price of december i would say 1mBTC/ 10 USD

[sgbett]

No new contestants joined then. Interesting.

I did not have time to promote it. There is now a good head start for the current players as they have forecasted 15/36 rounds. On the other hand, there are some predictions that are bordering elimination (bluemoon is busted if it hits $4 in 2014-8-31, which imo is a very realistic possibility, and wachtwoord is almost surely out by then )

Next month let's suck some new blood in, shall we?

 

I want to be out by then!

This contest is the cheapest hedge I ever bought

excellent strategy

[dnaleor]

chompity chomp. i love oranges!

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByF9G8exBPg7R2tzeE1uRks2d28/edit?usp=sharing

ORANGE SHEETS!!!   

will post my point chart in a few minuets

[sgbett]

chompity chomp. i love oranges!

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByF9G8exBPg7R2tzeE1uRks2d28/edit?usp=sharing

ORANGE SHEETS!!!   

will post my point chart in a few minuets

this months chart is getting complicated, gotta factor in last months predictions too!

[sgbett]

I think...



... really banking on the next bull run

[wachtwoord]

And red is positive?

[dnaleor]

The TOTAL points for my 2 predictions:


Positive points when exchange rate in interval [199,53 ; 2511,89] or below 12,59
Max points: 12.1 when exchange rate in interval [1000 ; 1122,02]
Eliminated when exchange rate in interval [12,59 ; 199,53] or above 2818,38

edit: I think I have a fair chance to get positive points

[wachtwoord]

You're playing it safe I see

[dnaleor]

... really banking on the next bull run

I don't mind losing if the exchange rate goes too high