2014 USD/mBTC Price Prediction Contest

[wachtwoord]

great idea to plot the potential points  

This is my chart


Positive points: between 177.83 and 1258.92
eliminated (<-20): interval [50.12;141.25] interval [1584.88;31622.77] and 100000+

I suspect being eliminated for a price over $1584 by end of month wouldn't be *too* upsetting though

Same thing. I hope to be eliminated soon (bit with way lower prediction)

[dnaleor]

Hey, I can make pretty charts, too.

why did you gave high % to 70 USD region? Are you that bearish?

[wachtwoord]

My positive scores for the next month are:

0.44668-0.50118 +2.50
0.39811-0.44667 +4.09
0.35481-0.39810 +2.73
0.31623-0.35480 +0.34

[bluemoon]

Here's my chart:



Mostly positive from $50 to $2239. Any better news and I'm probably out. 

[rpietila]

Cool graphs you guys have.. I don't know how to make them... (or upload a file or this and that..)

It's a shame I cannot take part in the competition. I would have performed well with slightly positive score allaround. Granted 36*0.5 still equals only 18 but let's see...

[dnaleor]

where are the participants with green lines for high and low values? haven't seen any?

[Foxpup]

why did you gave high % to 70 USD region? Are you that bearish?

I didn't. I gave <0.1%. But everyone else (except bluemoon) seems to think it's more like 0.01%. Are you really that bullish?

where are the participants with green lines for high and low values? haven't seen any?

Right here.

[dnaleor]

why did you gave high % to 70 USD region? Are you that bearish?

I didn't. I gave <0.1%. But everyone else (except bluemoon) seems to think it's more like 0.01%. Are you really that bullish?

I gave it 0.0001%  Maybe I'm too bullish, but I also think the price can not drop that much in one month. I have "fatter tails" for later months.

where are the participants with green lines for high and low values? haven't seen any?

Right here.

ok, I did not check the legend. I assumed red = negative...
red = negative. I was just confused I guess...

[rpietila]

and this is how it develops over next 8 months...



clearly we are all far too optimistic

[rpietila]

When forecasting December, the following scenarios have to be accounted for. If they are, they give an insane spectrum of possible prices for the year end:

- 2013 once again. The price increased 54x to $0.728. The same increase this year means $39. Don't say it is impossible - that's what we did last year! (The all-time quickest expansion of bitcoin is 6400x in 9 months, but that is probably a one-time event.)

- Trendline holds. The trend is currently pointing to $6. It can easily range anywhere between $2.5-$18 and still be in the trend channel as calibrated in the last 2 bubbles.

- Current price holds. In 2012, the whole year passed without seeing a new ATH, not even close. So it is entirely realistic to have bitcoin in $0.5-$1 range the remainder of the year, and that alone cannot prove what the long-term value is..

- Bitcoin goes to the dumps. If this scenario was not there, logically bitcoin could only go up, and if that were true, it would have gone up already. So any price above $0.0xx has therefore to be possible. (Or below that, if the technology is broken.)

- In 2012-11-30 one year forward, the price had risen from $0.01256 to $1.2. It is almost 100x. Bad for you if you were not prepared. Hopefully the forecasters now are. Going 100x from $0.728 is $73, which is only a hair-width from $100.

It is no coincidence that the prediction range covers 4 orders of magnitude from $0.01 to $100.

I am not participating, but my sheet for December as forecasted in May would have a very wide distribution of numbers, just because Bitcoin has the tendency to surprise.  

 

[sgbett]

mine certainly does - my most conservative entry has >0.5% for everything between $50 and $0.079 per mbtc

[rpietila]

mine certainly does - my most conservative entry has >0.5% for everything between $50 and $0.079 per mbtc

The >0.1% threshold (on the average, as per your chart) in May goes at $1.5 and in December it's at $40 

[BitchicksHusband]

mine certainly does - my most conservative entry has >0.5% for everything between $50 and $0.079 per mbtc

The >0.1% threshold (on the average, as per your chart) in May goes at $1.5 and in December it's at $40 

You should just play but make it clear that you can't win.  I'm sure we'd all be curious.  But, if you think it sways the game, I understand.

[rpietila]

You should just play but make it clear that you can't win.  I'm sure we'd all be curious.  But, if you think it sways the game, I understand.

- I get to see the predictions of others
- My own prediction would move the averages

If I make my own prediction before looking at the others', and it is not part of the calculation but scored virtually based on the average of the others' predictions (the total number would preferably be higher than 8 predictions then), perhaps it would work. But it would be a pity to win without being eligible to the prize 

Let's see next month.

[dnaleor]

You should just play but make it clear that you can't win.  I'm sure we'd all be curious.  But, if you think it sways the game, I understand.

- I get to see the predictions of others
- My own prediction would move the averages

If I make my own prediction before looking at the others', and it is not part of the calculation but scored virtually based on the average of the others' predictions (the total number would preferably be higher than 8 predictions then), perhaps it would work. But it would be a pity to win without being eligible to the prize 

Let's see next month.

I wouldn't mind that you participate and can win the prize. As long as it's fair and you don't get to see our guesses

[Foxpup]

I wouldn't mind that you participate and can win the prize. As long as it's fair and you don't get to see our guesses

Problem: he needs to see our guesses in order to administer the contest. There's no simple way he can enter the contest himself and prove he's not cheating.

[rpietila]

I wouldn't mind that you participate and can win the prize. As long as it's fair and you don't get to see our guesses

Problem: he needs to see our guesses in order to administer the contest. There's no simple way he can enter the contest himself and prove he's not cheating.

If I would send my guess to a trusted third party first, and only then the others. But then I would not be the administering party (not a big deal really, it's just work and actually I am not doing it even now it is Nikke my assistant..)

For the reason that I save my legal ass, it is easier if there is no chance for me to benefit of this.

[dnaleor]

less than 2 weeks left... Come on Bitcoin, wanna see the price in the range [562.34;630.95]

BUY BUY BUY 

[wachtwoord]

less than 2 weeks left... Come on Bitcoin, wanna see the price in the range [562.34;630.95]

BUY BUY BUY 

Even though my top score is between 398.11 and 446.67 I won't complain if your prediction comes true

[Foxpup]

Looks like we're on track for $0.447 - $0.501, just as I predicted.