2014 USD/mBTC Price Prediction Contest

[sgbett]

Just got mine in about 30 mins ago.

Looks like the price has squeaked in under 630.95,  which means I might end up with a positive score... 0.1 to be precise

[dnaleor]

Just got mine in about 30 mins ago.

Looks like the price has squeaked in under 630.95,  which means I might end up with a positive score... 0.1 to be precise

I will get > 2 points if we stay below 630.95 Still VERY close at the moment...

[Foxpup]

Ten minutes left to stay under $630.95 and net me 0.5472 points. I'm bristling with anticipation!

It's all over! Price for the end of May: $627.80. 0.5472 points for me!

[wachtwoord]

Yay! I got a lousy score

[rpietila]

Ten minutes left to stay under $630.95 and net me 0.5472 points. I'm bristling with anticipation!

It's all over! Price for the end of May: $627.80. 0.5472 points for me!

Volume weighed average, which we use in this game, was actually "only"

2014-05-31 00:00:00   621   628.5   611   627.8   9696.71   6023688.83   621.21

Nevertheless, I am happy with the revival

[Foxpup]

You mean when the price approached $630, we were panicking over nothing? That's disappointing. So when do we get to see the leaderboard? I don't care about my absolute score, only my score relative to the other contestants'. That's the only thing that matters!

[dnaleor]

Ten minutes left to stay under $630.95 and net me 0.5472 points. I'm bristling with anticipation!

It's all over! Price for the end of May: $627.80. 0.5472 points for me!

Volume weighed average, which we use in this game, was actually "only"

2014-05-31 00:00:00   621   628.5   611   627.8   9696.71   6023688.83   621.21

Nevertheless, I am happy with the revival

lol, so much panic, but we already were 99% sure that the price would be in the correct range

where do you check that weighted average, Risto?


Very happy with my points

[wachtwoord]

Ten minutes left to stay under $630.95 and net me 0.5472 points. I'm bristling with anticipation!

It's all over! Price for the end of May: $627.80. 0.5472 points for me!

Volume weighed average, which we use in this game, was actually "only"

2014-05-31 00:00:00   621   628.5   611   627.8   9696.71   6023688.83   621.21

Nevertheless, I am happy with the revival

lol, so much panic, but we already were 99% sure that the price would be in the correct range

where do you check that weighted average, Risto?


Very happy with my points

Meh, over $630 would have been a little less bad for me

[rpietila]

The price in 2014-5-31 was 0.62121 and it ended in slot #35.

The contestants received points as follows:

dnaleor 2.09
bluemoon 0.55
Foxpup 0.55
sgbett1 0.1
sgbett3 0.1
sgbett4 -0.36
sgbett2 -0.46
wachtwoord -3.52

Total points awarded this round: -0.95 points.

[dnaleor]

The price in 2014-5-31 was 0.62121 and it ended in slot #35.

The contestants received points as follows:

dnaleor 2.09
bluemoon 0.55
Foxpup 0.55
sgbett1 0.1
sgbett3 0.1
sgbett4 -0.36
sgbett2 -0.46
wachtwoord -3.52

Total points awarded this round: -0.95 points.

great 
I admit I had some luck. But this is exactly the reason why I forced myself to give some additional percentages to the upside. Bitcoin always tends to be bullish on average. Hope next time the exchange rate will again exceed my expectations

Waiting for the "orange sheet" so we can create new charts

Good luck to all!

[rpietila]

Waiting for the "orange sheet" so we can create new charts

Tomorrow, son, tomorrow

[wachtwoord]

The price in 2014-5-31 was 0.62121 and it ended in slot #35.

The contestants received points as follows:

dnaleor 2.09
bluemoon 0.55
Foxpup 0.55
sgbett1 0.1
sgbett3 0.1
sgbett4 -0.36
sgbett2 -0.46
wachtwoord -3.52

Total points awarded this round: -0.95 points.

Wait, we weren't supposed to minimize our score? 

[dnaleor]

Waiting for the "orange sheet" so we can create new charts

Tomorrow, son, tomorrow

I can wait, dad, I'm just excited

Meanwhile, I decided this. If I win, I will redistribute some of the entrance fees to the participants who are not excluded due to the -20 rule. The number of participants is relatively low, so it would be a bummer for the other people if they are in a nice third place and don't have a consolation prize.
According to the rules, this is the current distribution

1. 100 + 720 + 240 = 1060 mBTC    
2. 100 + 240 = 340 mBTC        
                                      
I calculated that the reward would drop below 1 BTC if we have 9 participants or more. In that case, at least 3 people will get a prize and this redistribution won't take place

I will redistribute everything I get above 1 BTC with this system (so 8 participants or less):
*if there are 2 prizes distributed, the thrid place will receive everything I have above 1 BTC, with a maximum of 50% of the ammount the second place gets
*if I am the only winner, the second place will receive 50% of what I get above 1 BTC (with a maximum of 250 mBTC) and the third place
will get 25% (with a maximum of 125 mBTC)

the remaining ammount will be donated to Risto.
=> The maximum ammount I can win is 1 BTC.

Good luck to all


edit: this means that, currently, there is a 60 mBTC third prize

[wachtwoord]

LOL anything for the last place that isnt eliminated? It won' be me cause I doubt I'll make it to the way Bitcoin price is progressing.

[dnaleor]

LOL anything for the last place that isnt eliminated? It won' be me cause I doubt I'll make it to the way Bitcoin price is progressing.

I could decide on deviding the remaining part (if any) to all other people who are still in the running in stead of donating it to Risto.
But I want to point out that i'm not the winner. Just started with a nice lead We will see how it plays out, maybe I get eliminated next time LOL

[wachtwoord]

I'm just kidding around of course  . If you win you can do with the money what you want

[Foxpup]

According to the rules, this is the current distribution

1. 100 + 720 + 240 = 1060 mBTC    
2. 100 + 240 = 340 mBTC        

Not quite. The rules don't specify what happens when there's a tie, probably because a tie is damned unlikely after all 36 predictions. But just in case, I propose tied contestants receive the average of what they would have got if there wasn't a tie (ie, bluemoon and I would each receive 170 mBTC).

We are actually tied for second place and that's not just a rounding error, right?

[Foxpup]

Bumping for orange numbers.

[rpietila]

Bumping for orange numbers.

Acknowledged. Technical difficulties :/

[sgbett]

I CANT TAKE THE EXCITEMENT!!!!