2014 USD/mBTC Price Prediction Contest

[dnaleor]

but... below 501.19 USD I get... 14.27 points!!

thats just crazy and means everyone was an uber bull here

Not everyone. Put away your exclamation points; if you think that's a winning score, you're mistaken. Below $501, I get 53.50 points. Looks like this fox is going to take the lead... if he hasn't already taken it... dammit, where's that leaderboard?

lol, I was kinda hoping that we would go below 501 USD (no offence wachtwoord) but now that I know you will get >50 points, I hope it won't happen

[Foxpup]

lol, I was kinda hoping that we would go below 501 USD (no offence wachtwoord) but now that I know you will get >50 points, I hope it won't happen

I don't care. Just as long as it's below $501 next month, in which case I'll get >500 points. Hey, wait a minute... Take a closer look at the orange numbers. Did everybody except for us put 0.0001% for everything below $501? These numbers don't make sense otherwise.

[wachtwoord]

lol, I was kinda hoping that we would go below 501 USD (no offence wachtwoord) but now that I know you will get >50 points, I hope it won't happen

I don't care. Just as long as it's below $501 next month, in which case I'll get >500 points. Hey, wait a minute... Take a closer look at the orange numbers. Did everybody except for us put 0.0001% for everything below $501? These numbers don't make sense otherwise.

Starting in round 3 I did that yeah but even in my original prediction I put that down for the end of September and later. We should really have left sub-500 prices behind by now. I actually wouldn't have called my prediction bullish compared with what I thought many would have guessed.

By the way, I'm thinking of having quite a decent score in the current leaderboard (irrespective of whether I might drop out before the end) but to know that for sure I need that leaderboard! Come in Risto, this contest is losing some of its appeal. 

[rpietila]

Please stop whining. My resourcing is very tight and right now I am stuck doing this myself, which was not the intention. And I hate it. But trying to find a third person to do it and teach her would be even more of a chore. Telling this makes you'all feeling even worse, so I tried to not emphasize it. But what if we just leave the issue of apparent delays behind for good, and concentrate on what we have. I hope sgbett has emailed or linked you the orange numbers. If not, they are also as code below:

Code:

0,0003 %	0,0003 %	0,0003 %	0,0024 %	0,0024 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0007 %	0,0008 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0007 %	0,0008 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0007 %	0,0008 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0007 %	0,0008 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0007 %	0,0014 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0007 %	0,0024 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0007 %	0,0047 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0007 %	0,0071 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0007 %	0,0071 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0007 %	0,0090 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0008 %	0,0090 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0008 %	0,0134 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0008 %	0,0251 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0008 %	0,0461 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0047 %	0,0689 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0047 %	0,0863 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0002 %	0,0071 %	0,0974 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0003 %	0,0071 %	0,1047 %
0,0001 %	0,0002 %	0,0006 %	0,0150 %	0,1189 %
0,0001 %	0,0003 %	0,0007 %	0,0239 %	0,1245 %
0,0002 %	0,0006 %	0,0010 %	0,0289 %	0,1294 %
0,0003 %	0,0008 %	0,0010 %	0,0433 %	0,1337 %
0,0003 %	0,0010 %	0,0010 %	0,0532 %	0,1456 %
0,0005 %	0,0010 %	0,0010 %	0,0632 %	0,1495 %
0,0006 %	0,0010 %	0,0010 %	0,0841 %	0,1729 %
0,0006 %	0,0010 %	0,0124 %	0,1030 %	0,1800 %
0,0006 %	0,0111 %	0,0141 %	0,1189 %	0,1922 %
0,0006 %	0,0111 %	0,0188 %	0,1392 %	0,2025 %
0,0056 %	0,0119 %	0,0259 %	0,1524 %	0,2060 %
0,0056 %	0,0119 %	0,0396 %	0,1647 %	0,2093 %
0,0056 %	0,0133 %	0,0612 %	0,1760 %	0,2209 %
0,0059 %	0,0139 %	0,0960 %	0,1913 %	0,2241 %
0,0100 %	0,0157 %	0,1456 %	0,1992 %	0,2302 %
0,0126 %	0,0331 %	0,1808 %	0,2208 %	0,2248 %
0,0234 %	0,0792 %	0,2027 %	0,2416 %	0,2252 %
0,0495 %	0,2027 %	0,2385 %	0,2670 %	0,2278 %
0,0880 %	0,2652 %	4,2541 %	4,0833 %	3,4685 %
1,9062 %	4,9623 %	5,1710 %	4,5678 %	3,7681 %
3,3896 %	6,2807 %	6,3956 %	5,4216 %	4,4546 %
4,5620 %	7,3320 %	7,2111 %	6,1016 %	4,6185 %
6,8002 %	8,7948 %	8,1924 %	6,8321 %	4,4246 %
8,5508 %	9,5039 %	8,3422 %	7,0132 %	4,4267 %
11,0611 %	10,2643 %	9,3732 %	7,2612 %	3,8337 %
12,0927 %	7,7250 %	6,1920 %	4,6905 %	2,8284 %
11,4653 %	5,3348 %	3,2117 %	2,0598 %	1,5922 %
8,1153 %	3,0341 %	2,0933 %	0,1425 %	1,4035 %
0,3440 %	0,0211 %	0,1934 %	0,0188 %	0,1354 %
0,2156 %	0,0186 %	0,1257 %	0,0180 %	0,1285 %
0,1638 %	0,0162 %	0,1218 %	0,0170 %	0,1188 %
0,1189 %	0,0148 %	0,0953 %	0,0159 %	0,0845 %
0,0946 %	0,0138 %	0,0819 %	0,0138 %	0,0740 %
0,0740 %	0,0116 %	0,0622 %	0,0135 %	0,0727 %
0,0088 %	0,0088 %	0,0500 %	0,0119 %	0,0714 %
0,0049 %	0,0080 %	0,0473 %	0,0115 %	0,0589 %
0,0023 %	0,0074 %	0,0447 %	0,0111 %	0,0102 %
0,0010 %	0,0008 %	0,0278 %	0,0106 %	0,0100 %
0,0005 %	0,0007 %	0,0251 %	0,0084 %	0,0093 %
0,0003 %	0,0006 %	0,0038 %	0,0078 %	0,0032 %
0,0002 %	0,0005 %	0,0032 %	0,0008 %	0,0029 %
0,0001 %	0,0004 %	0,0027 %	0,0007 %	0,0015 %
0,0001 %	0,0003 %	0,0004 %	0,0006 %	0,0007 %
0,0001 %	0,0003 %	0,0003 %	0,0004 %	0,0006 %
0,0001 %	0,0002 %	0,0002 %	0,0003 %	0,0003 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0002 %	0,0001 %	0,0002 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0003 %	0,0003 %	0,0003 %	0,0003 %	0,0003 %

[dnaleor]

lol, I was kinda hoping that we would go below 501 USD (no offence wachtwoord) but now that I know you will get >50 points, I hope it won't happen

I don't care. Just as long as it's below $501 next month, in which case I'll get >500 points. Hey, wait a minute... Take a closer look at the orange numbers. Did everybody except for us put 0.0001% for everything below $501? These numbers don't make sense otherwise.

Ii'll "only" get around 100 points in that case.
May I ask how much you'll get if we stay above 501 USD at the end of this month?

[Foxpup]

May I ask how much you'll get if we stay above 501 USD at the end of this month?

In two out of the four predictions for this month, I assigned the highest probability to the $501-$562 range, in which case I'll get a slightly less monstrous score of 8.60 points this round, for a grand total of 14.93 points. I'm a long-term bull, but I can smell a crash coming a mile away. I can also smell the sweet scent of victory.

[wachtwoord]

Please stop whining. My resourcing is very tight and right now I am stuck doing this myself, which was not the intention. And I hate it. But trying to find a third person to do it and teach her would be even more of a chore. Telling this makes you'all feeling even worse, so I tried to not emphasize it. But what if we just leave the issue of apparent delays behind for good, and concentrate on what we have. I hope sgbett has emailed or linked you the orange numbers. If not, they are also as code below:

Can you please post the official closing price of each of the previous periods? Then we can all calculate our own scores extremely easily and post them here.

I'm complaining because you aren't keeping up with your promises by far and because this should cost you less than 5 minutes. I'm a very patient man so if I'm complaining you should probably see it as an indication of something.

[rpietila]

Please stop whining. My resourcing is very tight and right now I am stuck doing this myself, which was not the intention. And I hate it. But trying to find a third person to do it and teach her would be even more of a chore. Telling this makes you'all feeling even worse, so I tried to not emphasize it. But what if we just leave the issue of apparent delays behind for good, and concentrate on what we have. I hope sgbett has emailed or linked you the orange numbers. If not, they are also as code below:

Can you please post the official closing price of each of the previous periods? Then we can all calculate our own scores extremely easily and post them here.

I'm complaining because you aren't keeping up with your promises by far and because this should cost you less than 5 minutes. I'm a very patient man so if I'm complaining you should probably see it as an indication of something.

Official closing price every month is the Bitstamp vwa price, which can be seen from Bitcoincharts.

I am about to provide the leaderboard today, even though it does take more than 5 minutes. It is already 6 closed predictions.

I am sorry for the inconvenience, however my ability to do wonderful things is fully dependent on that I don't do things that are boring. Every mention of this is embarrassing to me so might it be possible to stop, please.

[wachtwoord]

Please stop whining. My resourcing is very tight and right now I am stuck doing this myself, which was not the intention. And I hate it. But trying to find a third person to do it and teach her would be even more of a chore. Telling this makes you'all feeling even worse, so I tried to not emphasize it. But what if we just leave the issue of apparent delays behind for good, and concentrate on what we have. I hope sgbett has emailed or linked you the orange numbers. If not, they are also as code below:

Can you please post the official closing price of each of the previous periods? Then we can all calculate our own scores extremely easily and post them here.

I'm complaining because you aren't keeping up with your promises by far and because this should cost you less than 5 minutes. I'm a very patient man so if I'm complaining you should probably see it as an indication of something.

Official closing price every month is the Bitstamp vwa price, which can be seen from Bitcoincharts.

I am about to provide the leaderboard today, even though it does take more than 5 minutes. It is already 6 closed predictions.

I am sorry for the inconvenience, however my ability to do wonderful things is fully dependent on that I don't do things that are boring. Every mention of this is embarrassing to me so might it be possible to stop, please.

Thank you

[rpietila]

The Leaderboard

wachtwoord    7,25
foxpup   6,33
dnaleor   2,46
bluemoon   0,58
sgbett3   -1,44
sgbett1   -1,59
sgbett2   -2,88
sgbett4   -7,45

[wachtwoord]

The Leaderboard

wachtwoord    7,25
foxpup   6,33
dnaleor   2,46
bluemoon   0,58
sgbett3   -1,44
sgbett1   -1,59
sgbett2   -2,88
sgbett4   -7,45

Thanks Risto

[rpietila]

Oh how sweet it is to be in the lead...

[wachtwoord]

Oh how sweet it is to be in the lead...

Sure, but if the price dips below $501.19 before then end of the month I'm still out (above I'll get 2.18 points). Next month will be even more perilous if Bitcoin price keeps being sticky.

I would have been far better off copying my prediction in round 1 to every subsequent round.

[dnaleor]

The Leaderboard

wachtwoord    7,25
foxpup   6,33
dnaleor   2,46
bluemoon   0,58
sgbett3   -1,44
sgbett1   -1,59
sgbett2   -2,88
sgbett4   -7,45

thx!

Think i'm going for the second place now... foxpup will do very well if no BTC rally starts in the next weeks...

[Foxpup]

foxpup will do very well if no BTC rally starts in the next weeks...

Or the next hours. Sorry, wachtwoord.

I think I'm going hold off on my next prediction until I know how much effort I need to put into it.

[dnaleor]

I would have thought that by now, we would already be >1000 USD. This delay is getting frustrating

[wachtwoord]

foxpup will do very well if no BTC rally starts in the next weeks...

Or the next hours. Sorry, wachtwoord.

I think I'm going hold off on my next prediction until I know how much effort I need to put into it.

It looks like I'll be signing off right from first place

I wanted to go out because the rally started, not with the price going too low

[Foxpup]

Prediction sent. I'm feeling confident.

I wanted to go out because the rally started, not with the price going too low

We all do.

[wachtwoord]

Prediction sent. I'm feeling confident.

I wanted to go out because the rally started, not with the price going too low

We all do.

I send my prediction too just in case. I'm expecting to be out in 6 hours though.

[dnaleor]

I've send my prediction. I made it very bearish but I guess the fox will win this competition. I'll go for the second place