2014 USD/mBTC Price Prediction Contest

[bluemoon]

I've now sent my predictions.

Given such boring prices, I find the exercise surprisingly interesting, particularly now I have a record of my early predictions to look back on.

So the tension rises as the quirky scoring system looks about to claim its first victim(s) ...

Anyway, good luck everyone, and may the best man win!

[wachtwoord]

I've now sent my predictions.

Given such boring prices, I find the exercise surprisingly interesting, particularly now I have a record of my early predictions to look back on.

So the tension rises as the quirky scoring system looks about to claim its first victim(s) ...

Anyway, good luck everyone, and may the best man win!

Well, because it's the average of the day now even 2 hours before the deadline it is dead certain that it's curtains for me. Good luck to all the others and good going

[Foxpup]

What a month that was. Did anyone else get eliminated? In any case, that's 53.5042 points for me, putting my total score at 59.8316 points. That'll take some beating.

[bluemoon]

Congratulations, Foxpup!

And my commiserations, wachtwoord; it's entirely possible I will be joining you in a month.

[Foxpup]

Bumping to see if anyone else was eliminated. Also the leaderboard and orange numbers, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

[dnaleor]

Bumping to see if anyone else was eliminated. Also the leaderboard and orange numbers, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

When someone is eliminated, at least it takes less time for risto or his assistant to finish this work

edit: I sincerely hope that at least 5 people stay in the running, otherwise, there is only 1 prize :p
(and I want the second! )

[Foxpup]

Where are the leaderboard and orange numbers? I'm getting impatient!

[rpietila]

Where are the leaderboard and orange numbers? I'm getting impatient!

Monero is being attacked! As usual, the files will be published after the 3rd day of the month.

[Foxpup]

This is insane. How are we supposed to make our predictions like this? We need orange numbers now, not at the heat death of the universe.

[dnaleor]

This is insane. How are we supposed to make our predictions like this? We need orange numbers now, not at the heat death of the universe.

I would like to know who is in the game and who isn't.
I know Risto is very busy (I don't visit the bitcoin part of this forum very often lately, only the monero topics)  but we need to know the leaderboard and the orange numbers to be able to send our next predictions...

[Foxpup]

24 hours to go and still no orange numbers. This is unacceptable.

[dnaleor]

24 hours to go and still no orange numbers. This is unacceptable.

I know for a fact that Risto needs to spend a lot of his time to Monero business. But indeed, we need those numbers and the leaderboard.

Maybe he just gives the people who are still in the race a free bitcoin?

If I have not supplied the orange numbers for the month, in 24 hours of the timestamp of this post, the competition will end immediately, so that every entry is deemed the winner.

Sending them as email to sgbett counts.

although, I liked this game. ending it like that would be a little sad.
There were not a lot of participants in the first place. If we had 20 or something, it would be more interesting...

[wachtwoord]

24 hours to go and still no orange numbers. This is unacceptable.

I know for a fact that Risto needs to spend a lot of his time to Monero business. But indeed, we need those numbers and the leaderboard.

Maybe he just gives the people who are still in the race a free bitcoin?

If I have not supplied the orange numbers for the month, in 24 hours of the timestamp of this post, the competition will end immediately, so that every entry is deemed the winner.

Sending them as email to sgbett counts.

although, I liked this game. ending it like that would be a little sad.
There were not a lot of participants in the first place. If we had 20 or something, it would be more interesting...

To be fair it says every entry, not every entry still in the game 

Anyway, I'm sure when Risto posts something like that he knows he can make it

[rpietila]

Okay I post them right away after compile, provided that I get the info from nikke.

Sorry that this competition went wrong I also feel bad  

Lucky me I did not promise for this month, otherwise would feel pressured 

[rpietila]

The high Judge of the competition talks:

Everything is in place for giving the orange numbers for this month "after the 3rd day of the month". However, because acting on them requires some time, it is not reasonable to keep the deadline for submission of entries intact. Therefore, the submission of entries deadline for Round 6 is postponed for 72 hours. Same kind of action was taken in Round 1 and everything is still fine.

The next post will contain the numbers.

[dnaleor]

The high Judge of the competition talks:

Everything is in place for giving the orange numbers for this month "after the 3rd day of the month". However, because acting on them requires some time, it is not reasonable to keep the deadline for submission of entries intact. Therefore, the submission of entries deadline for Round 6 is postponed for 72 hours. Same kind of action was taken in Round 1 and everything is still fine.

The next post will contain the numbers.

I preferred a free Bitcoin

[rpietila]

I preferred a free Bitcoin

It is getting closer. It seems that 2 of the 8 entries submitted for competition, named "wachtwoord" and "bluemoon", have bitten the dust. That leaves only 6 competitors remaining, and sgbett has not submitted for the last 2 rounds, leaving your chances for winning the whole thing quite good (unless you have disqualifiers looming for the coming rounds, that sgbett does not have due to his wide approach)!

Orange numbers:

Code:

0,0005 %	0,0005 %	0,0063 %	0,0063 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0010 %	0,0010 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0010 %	0,0010 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0010 %	0,0010 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0010 %	0,0010 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0010 %	0,0010 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0010 %	0,0010 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0010 %	0,0010 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0010 %	0,0010 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0010 %	0,0010 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0010 %	0,0010 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0010 %	0,0010 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0010 %	0,0013 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0010 %	0,0017 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0010 %	0,0022 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0019 %	0,0079 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0026 %	0,0126 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0033 %	0,0215 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0044 %	0,0292 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0063 %	0,0368 %
0,0008 %	0,0008 %	0,0079 %	0,0422 %
0,0008 %	0,0008 %	0,0121 %	0,0464 %
0,0008 %	0,0008 %	0,0152 %	0,0479 %
0,0008 %	0,0008 %	0,0174 %	0,0493 %
0,0008 %	0,0008 %	0,0191 %	0,0507 %
0,0008 %	0,0008 %	0,0252 %	0,0654 %
0,0017 %	0,0017 %	0,0311 %	0,0669 %
0,0017 %	0,0017 %	0,0342 %	0,0684 %
0,0017 %	0,0017 %	0,0464 %	0,0698 %
0,0017 %	0,0029 %	0,0531 %	0,0711 %
0,0017 %	0,0042 %	0,0594 %	0,0724 %
0,0017 %	0,0072 %	0,3047 %	0,3431 %
0,0017 %	0,0587 %	0,4386 %	0,5276 %
0,0079 %	0,1077 %	0,5848 %	0,8193 %
0,0171 %	0,1710 %	0,6341 %	0,8316 %
0,0500 %	0,2714 %	0,6804 %	0,8434 %
0,1587 %	0,3915 %	1,2164 %	1,4620 %
0,4217 %	0,7663 %	1,7544 %	1,8663 %
1,3925 %	1,4736 %	1,8218 %	1,8899 %
1,5000 %	1,6869 %	2,0250 %	1,9617 %
1,6930 %	1,9039 %	4,5789 %	4,3089 %
3,7798 %	4,3089 %	5,3924 %	5,0133 %
4,6539 %	5,1223 %	5,8945 %	5,4288 %
5,8636 %	6,3061 %	6,9735 %	6,4633 %
8,6738 %	7,2986 %	6,8399 %	7,3681 %
10,4830 %	8,6535 %	5,8946 %	8,3654 %
11,6570 %	9,5828 %	0,2194 %	7,1138 %
0,2678 %	9,5244 %	0,2194 %	2,4879 %
0,2826 %	4,4480 %	0,2154 %	2,2374 %
0,2466 %	4,6903 %	0,2120 %	1,8969 %
0,1876 %	3,3472 %	0,1533 %	1,0627 %
0,1063 %	2,1544 %	0,0965 %	0,8193 %
0,0531 %	1,1447 %	0,0026 %	0,0271 %
0,0016 %	0,0342 %	0,0024 %	0,0252 %
0,0013 %	0,0159 %	0,0022 %	0,0229 %
0,0009 %	0,0126 %	0,0017 %	0,0020 %
0,0007 %	0,0100 %	0,0013 %	0,0017 %
0,0006 %	0,0079 %	0,0009 %	0,0014 %
0,0004 %	0,0006 %	0,0006 %	0,0010 %
0,0003 %	0,0005 %	0,0005 %	0,0006 %
0,0002 %	0,0003 %	0,0003 %	0,0004 %
0,0001 %	0,0002 %	0,0002 %	0,0002 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0002 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0005 %	0,0005 %	0,0005 %	0,0005 %

Leaderboard (includes also September results):

Foxpup 451.82
dnaleor 167.02
sgbett1 18.20
sgbett2 25.01
sgbett3 10.97
sgbett4 2.99

The deciding thing was Round 4 - September forecast. Only 4 players forecasted anything and two of them had a probability of 0.0001% for what happened. The remaining players Foxpup and dnaleor reaped the rewards and are now well positioned.

As usual, I am happy to answer any questions!

[wachtwoord]

Why is sgbett still in the competition at all if he hasn't submitted anything for 2 rounds? Shouldn't that in itself lead to disqualification?

[rpietila]

Why is sgbett still in the competition at all if he hasn't submitted anything for 2 rounds? Shouldn't that in itself lead to disqualification?

No. The rules allow for this. He just gets zero points for those rounds. (He also has several submissions from the earlier rounds that are scored normally even if new ones are not submitted.)

[dnaleor]

Orange numbers:

Code:

0,0005 %	0,0005 %	0,0063 %	0,0063 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0010 %	0,0010 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0010 %	0,0010 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0010 %	0,0010 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0010 %	0,0010 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0010 %	0,0010 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0010 %	0,0010 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0010 %	0,0010 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0010 %	0,0010 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0010 %	0,0010 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0010 %	0,0010 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0010 %	0,0010 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0010 %	0,0013 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0010 %	0,0017 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0010 %	0,0022 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0019 %	0,0079 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0026 %	0,0126 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0033 %	0,0215 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0044 %	0,0292 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0063 %	0,0368 %
0,0008 %	0,0008 %	0,0079 %	0,0422 %
0,0008 %	0,0008 %	0,0121 %	0,0464 %
0,0008 %	0,0008 %	0,0152 %	0,0479 %
0,0008 %	0,0008 %	0,0174 %	0,0493 %
0,0008 %	0,0008 %	0,0191 %	0,0507 %
0,0008 %	0,0008 %	0,0252 %	0,0654 %
0,0017 %	0,0017 %	0,0311 %	0,0669 %
0,0017 %	0,0017 %	0,0342 %	0,0684 %
0,0017 %	0,0017 %	0,0464 %	0,0698 %
0,0017 %	0,0029 %	0,0531 %	0,0711 %
0,0017 %	0,0042 %	0,0594 %	0,0724 %
0,0017 %	0,0072 %	0,3047 %	0,3431 %
0,0017 %	0,0587 %	0,4386 %	0,5276 %
0,0079 %	0,1077 %	0,5848 %	0,8193 %
0,0171 %	0,1710 %	0,6341 %	0,8316 %
0,0500 %	0,2714 %	0,6804 %	0,8434 %
0,1587 %	0,3915 %	1,2164 %	1,4620 %
0,4217 %	0,7663 %	1,7544 %	1,8663 %
1,3925 %	1,4736 %	1,8218 %	1,8899 %
1,5000 %	1,6869 %	2,0250 %	1,9617 %
1,6930 %	1,9039 %	4,5789 %	4,3089 %
3,7798 %	4,3089 %	5,3924 %	5,0133 %
4,6539 %	5,1223 %	5,8945 %	5,4288 %
5,8636 %	6,3061 %	6,9735 %	6,4633 %
8,6738 %	7,2986 %	6,8399 %	7,3681 %
10,4830 %	8,6535 %	5,8946 %	8,3654 %
11,6570 %	9,5828 %	0,2194 %	7,1138 %
0,2678 %	9,5244 %	0,2194 %	2,4879 %
0,2826 %	4,4480 %	0,2154 %	2,2374 %
0,2466 %	4,6903 %	0,2120 %	1,8969 %
0,1876 %	3,3472 %	0,1533 %	1,0627 %
0,1063 %	2,1544 %	0,0965 %	0,8193 %
0,0531 %	1,1447 %	0,0026 %	0,0271 %
0,0016 %	0,0342 %	0,0024 %	0,0252 %
0,0013 %	0,0159 %	0,0022 %	0,0229 %
0,0009 %	0,0126 %	0,0017 %	0,0020 %
0,0007 %	0,0100 %	0,0013 %	0,0017 %
0,0006 %	0,0079 %	0,0009 %	0,0014 %
0,0004 %	0,0006 %	0,0006 %	0,0010 %
0,0003 %	0,0005 %	0,0005 %	0,0006 %
0,0002 %	0,0003 %	0,0003 %	0,0004 %
0,0001 %	0,0002 %	0,0002 %	0,0002 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0002 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %	0,0001 %
0,0005 %	0,0005 %	0,0005 %	0,0005 %

can you pelase post this as xls file?

edit: not necessary, found a workaround with using word