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Author Topic: Here it comes  (Read 6113 times)
Otoh
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January 13, 2012, 12:31:05 AM
 #21

good call Grin, set your Jessi alarms & chill to some Doves sounds

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January 13, 2012, 12:51:38 AM
 #22

I honestly don't have big expectations from the TV show. It's a fictional drama that has a viewer base which probably don't understand nor care about Bitcoin even after watching the show. I'm of course interested in the show but expecting the prices to skyrocket because of it is expecting too much. It'll depend on how the show is but to me there is a low possibility of it being very beneficial to Bitcoin. However I could be wrong and I'm happy if that happens to be the case. We'll see.

But this doesn't change the fact that we're going up, maybe not rocketing up but Bitcoin is way too significant and a fundamentally growing technology to ever be stable at single digits. The market cap is simply way too low at these levels, at this point in time.

This year Bitcoin will go to a whole another level, for me it's totally insignificant if it happens next week or 6 months from now. I'm not a trader unless I'm forced to do it, I'm an investor and an enterpreneur. I plan on not selling a single satoshi unless I actually need the money or am forced to start trading due to an apparent downtrend/bubble collapse. The ideal scenario would be that I could hold my BTC for long enough to simply use it directly when I need it, without the need to ever change it into fiat again.

This ideal scenario is of course quite optimistic, I believe we will see a couple of bubbles before I'm able to use BTC for the majority of my purchases. This will mean that at some point I have to hide the bull temporarily, once again. Happy to be a bull on all accounts right now though, expecting it to last for quite a while. The next wave of interest will be hell of a lot bigger than the first big wave because something like this doesn't just come back from the dead if it's nothing, investors will be more interested than ever before.

There is another possibility that I'm considering though and this is that we could go very high without it actually being a bubble, for the most part. A good part of the "Bitcoin collapse" was because there were a good number of serious incidents that basically caused a serious reliability issue for the whole economy. The market was overbought, yes, but without all of those incidents I simply can't believe it would've ever gone as low as $2.

So we will have some kind of a bubble for sure but I think it's very likely that without multiple serious incidents we will never have the type of bubble we had in June and after. It's simply not going to happen. Bitcoin could, and I'm serious about this, simply go up and up, with small and some bigger corrections on the way of course, until it reaches the point where it doesn't see significant growth anymore, from either investments or usage. This could take approximately 5-10 years.

I simply don't think that it's possible for us to see Bitcoin go up 1000% and then lose 90% of its value. Unless a lot of very bad shit happens, just like we saw happen in 2011. So my advice is to look for this bad shit very carefully, if it doesn't come I think it's a good idea to be long on bitcoins, very long in fact.

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January 13, 2012, 01:34:15 AM
 #23

Here it comes. Friday has begun. We had the bear trap, and there go the parabolic replenishing asks...

I saw this pattern just twice before. Both in June. One burst the bubble, the other started that bust we all remember too well. The second peak of the bursting was on a Thursday, I remember very well how I was sitting in a lecture when it peaked just below the all-time high, and it just missed one sell between 31 and 32, where I was being just one dollar too greedy on one of my orders.

You bulls better pray I'm seeing ghosts, or that there is someone to change the rules this time. A Millionaire, a TV viewer invasion, or something else of the kind.

To make it clear: no more balanced position, I already sold over 50% and have now officially turned bear again.
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January 13, 2012, 01:41:59 AM
 #24

Here it comes. Friday has begun. We had the bear trap, and there go the parabolic replenishing asks...

I saw this pattern just twice before. Both in June. One burst the bubble, the other started that bust we all remember too well. The second peak of the bursting was on a Thursday, I was sitting in a lecture when it peaked just below the all-time high, and it just missed one sell between 31 and 32, where I was being just one dollar too greedy on one of my orders.

You bulls better pray I'm seeing ghosts, or that there is someone to change the rules this time. A Millionaire, a TV viewer invasion, or something else of the kind.

To make it clear: no more balanced position, I already sold over 50% and have now officially turned bear again.

Yikes.  Hopefully we don't go below $2.

Edit:  Actually, if you're right, then we probably will go below $2.  Everyone out!
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January 13, 2012, 06:06:16 AM
 #25

This year Bitcoin will go to a whole another level

Three years from start ant there is no tutorials on how to integrate bitcoins into the common web engines.
Nothing significant will happen in this year also.
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January 13, 2012, 06:14:17 AM
 #26

This year Bitcoin will go to a whole another level

Three years from start ant there is no tutorials on how to integrate bitcoins into the common web engines.
Nothing significant will happen in this year also.


how to integrate bitcoins into a common webpage:


197SaHNSQpNZXKssR8v5pfUnkTx5UZRaYN

end of tutorial...

if you'd liek to have a more nifty approach:
http://www.thebitcointrader.com/2011/12/monetizing-blog-with-bitcoin.html

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January 13, 2012, 06:21:10 AM
 #27

Here it comes. Friday has begun. We had the bear trap, and there go the parabolic replenishing asks...

I saw this pattern just twice before. Both in June. One burst the bubble, the other started that bust we all remember too well. The second peak of the bursting was on a Thursday, I was sitting in a lecture when it peaked just below the all-time high, and it just missed one sell between 31 and 32, where I was being just one dollar too greedy on one of my orders.

You bulls better pray I'm seeing ghosts, or that there is someone to change the rules this time. A Millionaire, a TV viewer invasion, or something else of the kind.

To make it clear: no more balanced position, I already sold over 50% and have now officially turned bear again.

Yikes.  Hopefully we don't go below $2.

Edit:  Actually, if you're right, then we probably will go below $2.  Everyone out!

Oh, please let it happen... I really need to stock up again. The kiddos will be getting a bit extra in their savings addresses. Cheesy


Bitcoin is the ultimate freedom test. It tells you who is giving lip service and who genuinely believes in it.
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In the future, books that summarize the history of money will have a line that says, “and then came bitcoin.” It is the economic singularity. And we are living in it now. - Ryan Dickherber
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ATTENTION BFL MINING NEWBS: Just got your Jalapenos in? Wondering how to get the most value for the least hassle? Give BitMinter a try! It's a smaller pool with a fair & low-fee payment method, lots of statistical feedback, and it's easier than EasyMiner! (Yes, we want your hashing power, but seriously, it IS the easiest pool to use! Sign up in seconds to try it!)
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The idea that deflation causes hoarding (to any problematic degree) is a lie used to justify theft of value from your savings.
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January 13, 2012, 06:40:44 AM
 #28

Here it comes. Friday has begun. We had the bear trap, and there go the parabolic replenishing asks...

I saw this pattern just twice before. Both in June. One burst the bubble, the other started that bust we all remember too well. The second peak of the bursting was on a Thursday, I was sitting in a lecture when it peaked just below the all-time high, and it just missed one sell between 31 and 32, where I was being just one dollar too greedy on one of my orders.

You bulls better pray I'm seeing ghosts, or that there is someone to change the rules this time. A Millionaire, a TV viewer invasion, or something else of the kind.

To make it clear: no more balanced position, I already sold over 50% and have now officially turned bear again.

Yikes.  Hopefully we don't go below $2.

Edit:  Actually, if you're right, then we probably will go below $2.  Everyone out!

Oh, please let it happen... I really need to stock up again. The kiddos will be getting a bit extra in their savings addresses. Cheesy



God, a bitcoin at $2? My powder is dry and ready.
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January 13, 2012, 07:44:43 AM
 #29

The hype about 'bitcoin on TV' (not really, but anyway) and one small booth at CES had already been well and truly priced into bitcoin's price.  We'll need further product or service announcements or the correction downwards will continue.

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January 13, 2012, 02:32:35 PM
 #30

I'm well aware of the numerous possibilities that could lead to Bitcoin's demise. The most severe ones are fundamental technical problems, legal problems and the possibility of a new technology that renders Bitcoin obsolete. These are the big issues and challenges which we need to keep a close eye on.

It has also been proven that the issues don't have to be catastrophical for the exchange rate to crash. None of the bad stuff that happened in 2011 were catastrophical to Bitcoin itself, the issues were with 3rd parties. Certain important 3rd parties have a very important role in the economy which means that if they have big issues it can set Bitcoin back at least temporarily.

However I believe that the understanding of Bitcoin has significantly improved since May. And it's going to improve in the future. This will make the impact of 3rd party failures at least somewhat smaller. Even in this case we will always have to worry about the severe issues that I listed in the first paragraph.

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January 13, 2012, 02:37:24 PM
 #31

So the glass is half full again in this thread...  Roll Eyes

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January 13, 2012, 05:45:42 PM
 #32

I'm well aware of the numerous possibilities that could lead to Bitcoin's demise. The most severe ones are fundamental technical problems, legal problems and the possibility of a new technology that renders Bitcoin obsolete. These are the big issues and challenges which we need to keep a close eye on.

It has also been proven that the issues don't have to be catastrophical for the exchange rate to crash. None of the bad stuff that happened in 2011 were catastrophical to Bitcoin itself, the issues were with 3rd parties. Certain important 3rd parties have a very important role in the economy which means that if they have big issues it can set Bitcoin back at least temporarily.

However I believe that the understanding of Bitcoin has significantly improved since May. And it's going to improve in the future. This will make the impact of 3rd party failures at least somewhat smaller. Even in this case we will always have to worry about the severe issues that I listed in the first paragraph.

One other thing, though. Even though the failures of 2011 did have a serious impact on Bitcoin, they did not outright wipe it off the map. This isn't a trivial point. Just imagine what would have happened with the US dollar if the New York Stock Exchange had been hacked and all stocks had been sold down to a few cents each... or the impact on the gold market if someone had stolen about 5 percent of the world supply of gold in any given two month period (putting together MyBitcoin, allinvain and Bitomat). The implications would have been far deeper and lasted far longer.

Will there be other hacks? Probably. Other thefts? Almost certainly. I can also give you an almost 100 percent certainty that there will be a crash of a large jetliner some time in the next two years, but that doesn't mean that commercial aviation is unsafe, and it sure as hell doesn't mean it's just as unsafe as it was in the 1930's, the 1960's or the 1980's.
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this statement is false


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January 13, 2012, 11:06:53 PM
 #33


Come to think of it, there is another long term concern with
bitcoin: as the block rewards decrease, it quite unclear that
transaction fees will be enough to sustain a healthy mining
ecosystem. If I had to point at the weakest part of Satoshi's
design, that probably would be it.



this. is there any good literature on what is supposed to happen once we enter the age of transaction fees?

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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January 13, 2012, 11:14:59 PM
 #34

this. is there any good literature on what is supposed to happen once we enter the age of transaction fees?

As I recall, the assumption is that over time Bitcoin will become sufficiently entrenched that parties with interest in keeping the system running will continue to keep hashing blocks even if the fees don't cover the costs, as they stand to lose more if the system becomes insecure.

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this statement is false


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January 13, 2012, 11:34:27 PM
 #35

this. is there any good literature on what is supposed to happen once we enter the age of transaction fees?

As I recall, the assumption is that over time Bitcoin will become sufficiently entrenched that parties with interest in keeping the system running will continue to keep hashing blocks even if the fees don't cover the costs, as they stand to lose more if the system becomes insecure.

we must then hope that Bitcoin will become 'sufficiently entrenched' before the age of transaction fees...

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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165YUuQUWhBz3d27iXKxRiazQnjEtJNG9g


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January 13, 2012, 11:35:45 PM
 #36

That's something that's worried me.  How large of transaction fees will be required to ensure security?  I think double-spends won't be a problem; it's too hard to exploit even against a fairly small network.

On the other hand, I am concerned that someone with a vested interest in killing Bitcoin - government, banks, whatever - will pull a luke-jr and DOS the network.  We might have to throw a lot of money to miners to stop it.

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January 14, 2012, 01:16:59 AM
 #37

this. is there any good literature on what is supposed to happen once we enter the age of transaction fees?

As I recall, the assumption is that over time Bitcoin will become sufficiently entrenched that parties with interest in keeping the system running will continue to keep hashing blocks even if the fees don't cover the costs, as they stand to lose more if the system becomes insecure.

we must then hope that Bitcoin will become 'sufficiently entrenched' before the age of transaction fees...

If it does become entrenched, then transaction fees would be practically guaranteed to cover costs.

If it's 2050, and pretty much the only means of electronic commerce is through bitcoin, you can believe I'm not going to balk that much at, say, a mandatory, capped transaction fee of 1% to ensure immediate processing as opposed to next-week processing through the "charity miners." It's either pay the fee or not do business.

Bitcoin is the ultimate freedom test. It tells you who is giving lip service and who genuinely believes in it.
...
...
In the future, books that summarize the history of money will have a line that says, “and then came bitcoin.” It is the economic singularity. And we are living in it now. - Ryan Dickherber
...
...
ATTENTION BFL MINING NEWBS: Just got your Jalapenos in? Wondering how to get the most value for the least hassle? Give BitMinter a try! It's a smaller pool with a fair & low-fee payment method, lots of statistical feedback, and it's easier than EasyMiner! (Yes, we want your hashing power, but seriously, it IS the easiest pool to use! Sign up in seconds to try it!)
...
...
The idea that deflation causes hoarding (to any problematic degree) is a lie used to justify theft of value from your savings.
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January 14, 2012, 02:09:21 AM
 #38

If it's 2050, and pretty much the only means of electronic commerce is through bitcoin, you can believe I'm not going to balk that much at, say, a mandatory, capped transaction fee of 1% to ensure immediate processing as opposed to next-week processing through the "charity miners." It's either pay the fee or not do business.

Except that one miner will drop the minimum fees to 0.99% to get them all. Then the next miner will drop them to 0.98% etc.

In a normal market, this downward pressure on prices is countered by the production cost. But for bitcoin there is no minimum cost: the mining difficulty will drop until it is too low to provide any security.

Right.... cause mining is free.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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January 14, 2012, 02:21:42 AM
 #39

If it's 2050, and pretty much the only means of electronic commerce is through bitcoin, you can believe I'm not going to balk that much at, say, a mandatory, capped transaction fee of 1% to ensure immediate processing as opposed to next-week processing through the "charity miners." It's either pay the fee or not do business.

Except that one miner will drop the minimum fees to 0.99% to get them all. Then the next miner will drop them to 0.98% etc.

In a normal market, this downward pressure on prices is countered by the production cost. But for bitcoin there is no minimum cost: the mining difficulty will drop until it is too low to provide any security.

The mining difficulty will drop until it is profitable for more to mine again.

FTFY
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January 14, 2012, 02:44:05 AM
 #40

So if widespread adoption occurs wouldn't the transaction fees (and thus bitcoin) basically be energy credits?
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