Investigation Complete of Instamines and Fastmines for almost every top alt coin

[salsacz]

if you want to sell at 500,000, you can start at 0.08, but price will go down and actually you will be selling at 0.06

+ Nxt IPO was not an investment. Only suckers would count it like that. It should be max. 100 USD, but unexpectly price of the Btc was rocketing and imagine - how would it be fair if someone invested 100 USD in September and 2000 USD in December and got the same stake because Bitcoin was unstoppable

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[Whoisthelorax]

copied from NXT original thread...

Address; Hash; BTC; Multiplier; Weight; Nxt

1Aq5XrMf7SQsVA3RsByvZiRnARSCoaenj; 0810dc38a2e6e956918f2057f06f02846dfcfc6bf8860d976e08dec7e5cbfe8d; 1; 300; 300; 49875768
168udnkT3BMgFkzXwzLGnEymJpXxrgEhxt; 0dff9e047bde2f3de9551ea9439190f62080b443060fd76f66f3b87af38c0b8a; 0,0105; 300; 3,15; 523696
1EujnSavF7qVg5ngrKpTLbD52aCvoyTPh; 0e1446244ca325c2dd0cd6a8c6a5d56733bcce315a5536b750a408092d0b48b5; 0,11; 300; 33; 5486334
1AN8bAhXrdnqHU8USe3rNqdcneWacxQUZu; 17596f1491007e17fc4fee55fe6cf43b99a42384b5fcd80e5269816152918230; 1; 300; 300; 49875768

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=303898.540

someone got 49,875768 NXT...for sending 1 BTC.

at today's price thats a cool $1.5 million.

at NXT's really quick peak (.08 a coin and higher), that was worth well over $3 million dollars.

[salsacz]

quick peak was caused by Bter's manual deposits - people didn't deposit there Nxt coins fast because they were sleeping, while chinese guys wanted to buy all. If you wanted to sell 50m Nxt, you would get maybe 100k USD. Price would simply go down to 1 Satoshi. Those, who would have wanted to do this, could do this in past. They didn't or made it slowly = success.

But counting with peaking price with selling millions of Nxt? Really? This is the dumbest analysis I have ever seen on this forum

[Whoisthelorax]

quick peak was caused by Bter's manual deposits - people didn't deposit there Nxt coins fast because they were sleeping, while chinese guys wanted to buy all. If you wanted to sell 50m Nxt, you would get maybe 100k USD. Price would simply go down to 1 Satoshi. Those, who would have wanted to do this, could do this in past. They didn't or made it slowly = success.

But counting with peaking price with selling millions of Nxt? Really? This is the dumbest analysis I have ever seen on this forum

...i purposely didnt count from the peak.  Itgoes higher than 80 million market cap (or 8 cents per nxt). I believe it reached 100 mill.

And im not saying they sold it all. I highly doubt they could. Im saying that is the value. Do you disagree with the numbers?

[pandaisftw]

copied from NXT original thread...

Address; Hash; BTC; Multiplier; Weight; Nxt

1Aq5XrMf7SQsVA3RsByvZiRnARSCoaenj; 0810dc38a2e6e956918f2057f06f02846dfcfc6bf8860d976e08dec7e5cbfe8d; 1; 300; 300; 49875768
168udnkT3BMgFkzXwzLGnEymJpXxrgEhxt; 0dff9e047bde2f3de9551ea9439190f62080b443060fd76f66f3b87af38c0b8a; 0,0105; 300; 3,15; 523696
1EujnSavF7qVg5ngrKpTLbD52aCvoyTPh; 0e1446244ca325c2dd0cd6a8c6a5d56733bcce315a5536b750a408092d0b48b5; 0,11; 300; 33; 5486334
1AN8bAhXrdnqHU8USe3rNqdcneWacxQUZu; 17596f1491007e17fc4fee55fe6cf43b99a42384b5fcd80e5269816152918230; 1; 300; 300; 49875768

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=303898.540

someone got 49,875768 NXT...for sending 1 BTC.

at today's price thats a cool $1.5 million.

at NXT's really quick peak (.08 a coin and higher), that was well over $3 million dollars.

I see, in addition to ignoring my previous post, your main motivation for "dislliking" PoS coins is because you missed the boat on all of them? (Or perhaps invested in the wrong ones?)

Otherwise, I can't see why you're bringing up the % the initial investors made... In fact, it's irrelevant now (if not, tell me how it's relevant, I'm interested in hearing your excuse).

[defaced]

http://www.devtome.com/doku.php?id=a_massive_investigation_of_instamines_and_fastmines_for_the_top_alt_coins

How does your coin stack up when you look at their mining starts?

Coins discussed in this article...All the top alt coins except the second gen coins like Mastercoin, ripple, etc.


Bitcoin
Maxcoin
Namecoin
Blackcoin
Darkcoin
Mintcoin
Vertcoin
Peercoin
Primecoin
Litecoin
Infinitecoin
Megacoin
Worldcoin
Feathercoin
Bitbar
Goldcoin
Novacoin
Dogecoin
Quark
Zetacoin
ybcoin

basic mining data from the blockchain and from www.cryptometer.org were used to assess the fairness or scamminess of these coins. Obviously more information is needed to make a decision before investing, but this can be a big portion of your decision.


This needs to be spread around. Link to it if you like it!

Y U NO ADD FRK!!!!

FRK came out about the same time, but as ive been saying since the release, Fair coins were being swept under the rug.

[galbros]

This is one of the more interesting articles on altcoins I've seen.  Thanks to its authors and thanks for linking it!

I especially like the grudging nod towards dogecoin as annoying but not instamined.

[Whoisthelorax]

Of course I/we take issue with your "analysis" because we (mainly those involved with PoS projects) understand that not-instantmine/instantmine is too simplistic. I'm sure this works perfectly for copycat PoW coins, because all you can do on these coins is basically mine them, and that's it. What was the last "slow-mined" PoW coin that did something revolutionary Bitcoin has not done? Looking at the top 20 on CMK... that list is basically zero - maybe namecoin, but it's already outdated.

You're talking about "investments", which includes both minable and non-minable coins. If you're going to lump all PoS coins into the "instantmine" section (when in reality, there is no "mining" in PoS), you're doing everyone who follows your analysis a disservice. Understandably, this is what the topic is about, but IMO, it's flawed, and that will become apparent in the future. I would say that people are getting tired of buying coins whose only feature is that they can be slowly mined and do nothing else but generate profit for the miners. The market will be shifting to doing useful work (and already is, look at maidsafe) and more efficient work. Distribution is important, but it's no longer the sole determining factor in a coin's success.

Anyways, not hating on your analysis, but again, IMO it's too simplistic to take seriously.

Pandaisftw

Wrong. I don't have an instamine section. I have an Extreme caution section, a questionable section, and an okay section. The extreme caution section represents some instamines, yes, but also scam behavior or otherwise extreme tilting of benefit to first adopters. NXT is the most extreme benefit for first adopters, period. Thus, it Has to go in the extreme caution section.

I've stated repeatedly that this analysis is not a full analysis but only for mining/how the coins come into being. If your beef is that my analysis doesn't go into the areas it wasn't intended to go into, well, that isn't my concern.

[Whoisthelorax]

copied from NXT original thread...

Address; Hash; BTC; Multiplier; Weight; Nxt

1Aq5XrMf7SQsVA3RsByvZiRnARSCoaenj; 0810dc38a2e6e956918f2057f06f02846dfcfc6bf8860d976e08dec7e5cbfe8d; 1; 300; 300; 49875768
168udnkT3BMgFkzXwzLGnEymJpXxrgEhxt; 0dff9e047bde2f3de9551ea9439190f62080b443060fd76f66f3b87af38c0b8a; 0,0105; 300; 3,15; 523696
1EujnSavF7qVg5ngrKpTLbD52aCvoyTPh; 0e1446244ca325c2dd0cd6a8c6a5d56733bcce315a5536b750a408092d0b48b5; 0,11; 300; 33; 5486334
1AN8bAhXrdnqHU8USe3rNqdcneWacxQUZu; 17596f1491007e17fc4fee55fe6cf43b99a42384b5fcd80e5269816152918230; 1; 300; 300; 49875768

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=303898.540

someone got 49,875768 NXT...for sending 1 BTC.

at today's price thats a cool $1.5 million.

at NXT's really quick peak (.08 a coin and higher), that was well over $3 million dollars.

I see, in addition to ignoring my previous post, your main motivation for "dislliking" PoS coins is because you missed the boat on all of them? (Or perhaps invested in the wrong ones?)

Otherwise, I can't see why you're bringing up the % the initial investors made... In fact, it's irrelevant now (if not, tell me how it's relevant, I'm interested in hearing your excuse).

No, I'm not a miner, just an investor.

It's completely relevant to show how overvalued the coin is right now. From investment in October/November to December, the initial investment went up anywhere from 4,000x to 40,000x in value.

When you are an investor, that amount of increase in value does not leave too much more room on the upside and plenty of room on the downside. Can i reasonably expect NXT to jump 10x in value from where it is today? It's already gone up some 20,000x (average). In healthy bull markets, you expect up to a 20-25% pull back before the next leg up. Cryptomarkets tend to be even wilder than that. The increase in value from OCtober/November to December (and today) makes me think it could go a heck of a lot down more so than up.

When the original investor was a long time ago, i could hear the argument it doesn't matter. But the original investor was not even 1/2 a year ago. So, yes, it's completely relevant.

[Whoisthelorax]

This is one of the more interesting articles on altcoins I've seen.  Thanks to its authors and thanks for linking it!

I especially like the grudging nod towards dogecoin as annoying but not instamined.

No problem, I'm glad it's of use!

LOL, there have been a couple coins that my opinion on differs with what their mining data shows. I competely admit to being a Dogecoin hater...not against the people or anything. I just can't believe a meme would go so far...still makes me shake my head. Fourchan is going to rule the world some day. 


And for the others, I'll look into Franko now.

[pandaisftw]

copied from NXT original thread...

Address; Hash; BTC; Multiplier; Weight; Nxt

1Aq5XrMf7SQsVA3RsByvZiRnARSCoaenj; 0810dc38a2e6e956918f2057f06f02846dfcfc6bf8860d976e08dec7e5cbfe8d; 1; 300; 300; 49875768
168udnkT3BMgFkzXwzLGnEymJpXxrgEhxt; 0dff9e047bde2f3de9551ea9439190f62080b443060fd76f66f3b87af38c0b8a; 0,0105; 300; 3,15; 523696
1EujnSavF7qVg5ngrKpTLbD52aCvoyTPh; 0e1446244ca325c2dd0cd6a8c6a5d56733bcce315a5536b750a408092d0b48b5; 0,11; 300; 33; 5486334
1AN8bAhXrdnqHU8USe3rNqdcneWacxQUZu; 17596f1491007e17fc4fee55fe6cf43b99a42384b5fcd80e5269816152918230; 1; 300; 300; 49875768

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=303898.540

someone got 49,875768 NXT...for sending 1 BTC.

at today's price thats a cool $1.5 million.

at NXT's really quick peak (.08 a coin and higher), that was well over $3 million dollars.

I see, in addition to ignoring my previous post, your main motivation for "dislliking" PoS coins is because you missed the boat on all of them? (Or perhaps invested in the wrong ones?)

Otherwise, I can't see why you're bringing up the % the initial investors made... In fact, it's irrelevant now (if not, tell me how it's relevant, I'm interested in hearing your excuse).

No, I'm not a miner, just an investor.

It's completely relevant to show how overvalued the coin is right now. From investment in October/November to December, the initial investment went up anywhere from 4,000x to 40,000x in value.

When you are an investor, that amount of increase in value does not leave too much more room on the upside and plenty of room on the downside. Can i reasonably expect NXT to jump 10x in value from where it is today? It's already gone up some 20,000x (average). In healthy bull markets, you expect up to a 20-25% pull back before the next leg up. Cryptomarkets tend to be even wilder than that. The increase in value from OCtober/November to December (and today) makes me think it could go a heck of a lot down more so than up.

When the original investor was a long time ago, i could hear the argument it doesn't matter. But the original investor was not even 1/2 a year ago. So, yes, it's completely relevant.

When you're an investor, you look at the utility and the future value based on that. When you're a speculator, you just look at price, and try to guess your gains based on that. You're clearly a speculator ("healthy bull markets... expect 20-25% pull back... " "Can you reasonably expect..." -- Who knows?) Again, your analysis too simple, and I'm afraid that actually a lot of people may think this way.

What correlation does any coin's value going up 10x have with it's value going up X% in the past? (Hint: Zero.) The current "market price" is exactly that, the balance between information, speculation and risk.

Also, I would like to point out that "a long time ago" is completely relative. If I were investing in the stock market, I'd say Bitcoin was a scam (according to your definition), because no way someone could make 500-5000x in 5 years. And if you're going to bring the distribution up...

http://bitcoinrichlist.com/charts/bitcoin-distribution-by-address?atblock=295000

~2000 accounts hold 50% of all bitcoins (valued at ~$3bil USD). That's 0.1% of accounts (not counting <0.0001 balance) holding 50% of all bitcoins. So I don't think the distribution argument is particularly valid to begin with.

[toknormal]

Given the best possible scenario, someone's $10 investment earned them $40K in 1-3 months. Keep in mind...some people sent way more than .01 BTC. The person who sent $100 worth of Bitcoin earned $400,000 in NXT. That's unreal. Especially when you consider that NXT hadnt even done anything yet.

That is what i point out in the wiki. Talking about the utility of NXT as though it makes up for this gaff doesn't make sense to me.

You are correct. They paid a very small amount of money and made a huge gain. That's the reason why people take risks, because there's potentially no limit to the return on speculative ventures.

What your job is (to support the emotive claims in your report) is to demonstrate where the ethical flaw is in this.

You haven't done that.

Nor have you made any material appraisal as to the commercial viability of the technology that NXT network currently represents. The reason you haven't done it is because:

a) your too lazy

b) being an opinion piece, it's not a priority of this report to do any balanced investigation of any of the content you cite

I again re-iterate my last request. Please take this nonsense down before you drown in criticism and become the subject matter of your own agenda.

[MicroGuy]

Are you hoping people don't actually click your link or something?

Here is what is presented in your link as "proof" Goldcoin was not instamined.

Block 0: 50 coins (Genesis block)
Block 1 - 200: 10000 coins (initial liquidity, a lot of this was given out in bounties/freebies)
Block 201-2200: 1000 coins (A lot of these were mined by various bitcoin talk forum members)
Block 2201-44999: 500 coins (These were mined over a period of ~2 months!) (Total of 21,399,000 COINS!)
Block  45000-Current: ~45 coins (actual formula is (int64)(50.0/(1.1 + 0.49*((nHeight-45000)/262800))))

the following are timestamps from the gld coin blockchain...

block 1   05-15 00:48:56

block 2200 05-15 10:54:43

block 11250 05-16 00:43:30

200 x 10,000 = 2,000,000 coins created

2000 ( 2200-200) blocks x 1,000 = 2,000,000 coins created...

9050 (11250-2200) blocks x 500 = 4,525,000 coins created...

that equals 8,525,000 GLD coins created in 24 hours. Exactly what my analysis showed. 8.5 million of 31 million available? instamine. major instamine.

THANKS FOR THE SUPPORTING INFORMATION.

No. What I take issue with is your statement that the coin was "not fairly distributed" when the facts indicate otherwise.

Also, with the coin now 12 months old and trading at less than 10% of its Dec 2013 high, your assertion that someone with a large amount of coins could "completely crash your investment" is less than genuine at best.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=231834.msg3289325#msg3289325

[Whoisthelorax]

copied from NXT original thread...

Address; Hash; BTC; Multiplier; Weight; Nxt

1Aq5XrMf7SQsVA3RsByvZiRnARSCoaenj; 0810dc38a2e6e956918f2057f06f02846dfcfc6bf8860d976e08dec7e5cbfe8d; 1; 300; 300; 49875768
168udnkT3BMgFkzXwzLGnEymJpXxrgEhxt; 0dff9e047bde2f3de9551ea9439190f62080b443060fd76f66f3b87af38c0b8a; 0,0105; 300; 3,15; 523696
1EujnSavF7qVg5ngrKpTLbD52aCvoyTPh; 0e1446244ca325c2dd0cd6a8c6a5d56733bcce315a5536b750a408092d0b48b5; 0,11; 300; 33; 5486334
1AN8bAhXrdnqHU8USe3rNqdcneWacxQUZu; 17596f1491007e17fc4fee55fe6cf43b99a42384b5fcd80e5269816152918230; 1; 300; 300; 49875768

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=303898.540

someone got 49,875768 NXT...for sending 1 BTC.

at today's price thats a cool $1.5 million.

at NXT's really quick peak (.08 a coin and higher), that was well over $3 million dollars.

I see, in addition to ignoring my previous post, your main motivation for "dislliking" PoS coins is because you missed the boat on all of them? (Or perhaps invested in the wrong ones?)

Otherwise, I can't see why you're bringing up the % the initial investors made... In fact, it's irrelevant now (if not, tell me how it's relevant, I'm interested in hearing your excuse).

No, I'm not a miner, just an investor.

It's completely relevant to show how overvalued the coin is right now. From investment in October/November to December, the initial investment went up anywhere from 4,000x to 40,000x in value.

When you are an investor, that amount of increase in value does not leave too much more room on the upside and plenty of room on the downside. Can i reasonably expect NXT to jump 10x in value from where it is today? It's already gone up some 20,000x (average). In healthy bull markets, you expect up to a 20-25% pull back before the next leg up. Cryptomarkets tend to be even wilder than that. The increase in value from OCtober/November to December (and today) makes me think it could go a heck of a lot down more so than up.

When the original investor was a long time ago, i could hear the argument it doesn't matter. But the original investor was not even 1/2 a year ago. So, yes, it's completely relevant.

When you're an investor, you look at the utility and the future value based on that. When you're a speculator, you just look at price, and try to guess your gains based on that. You're clearly a speculator ("healthy bull markets... expect 20-25% pull back... " "Can you reasonably expect..." -- Who knows?) Again, your analysis too simple, and I'm afraid that actually a lot of people may think this way.

What correlation does any coin's value going up 10x have with it's value going up X% in the past? (Hint: Zero.) The current "market price" is exactly that, the balance between information, speculation and risk.

Also, I would like to point out that "a long time ago" is completely relative. If I were investing in the stock market, I'd say Bitcoin was a scam (according to your definition), because no way someone could make 500-5000x in 5 years. And if you're going to bring the distribution up...

http://bitcoinrichlist.com/charts/bitcoin-distribution-by-address?atblock=295000

~2000 accounts hold 50% of all bitcoins (valued at ~$3bil USD). That's 0.1% of accounts (not counting <0.0001 balance) holding 50% of all bitcoins. So I don't think the distribution argument is particularly valid to begin with.

Try again, corrections happen all the time in healthy bull markets. That is investor lingo 101, not speculator lingo.

http://mutualfunds.about.com/od/activevspassivefunds/a/Market-Correction.htm

In reference to the number of coins in BTC wallets...I wasn't making a distribution argument, but nice try.

In regards to your assertion that by my definition, Bitcoin is a scam, that is incorrect. A ton has happened from the inception of BTC to today, including dozens of governments adding it to their tax code (or making it tax free) because so many of their citizens intended to use the currency. While there is speculation in bitcoin, the price has normalized nicely.

Just to be clear, I'm extremely skeptical of an investment into a currency that hadnt been released yet to receive 5,000x increase in valuation in 1-2 months. Your apparently extremely skeptical of a coin that has been accepted and utilized by tens of millions of people around the world in 5 years, had government hearings, thousands of business owners (incuding a few big businesses) accept the currency, and a number of Wall St type big wigs enter the fray (wayyyy after the early adopter period, mind you). While the likelihood of a bitcoin-like 1000% value appreciation happening is still very very low, there was a ton of demonstrable things that led to its rise in price. NXT cannot say the same AT ALL.

[Whoisthelorax]

Are you hoping people don't actually click your link or something?

Here is what is presented in your link as "proof" Goldcoin was not instamined.

Block 0: 50 coins (Genesis block)
Block 1 - 200: 10000 coins (initial liquidity, a lot of this was given out in bounties/freebies)
Block 201-2200: 1000 coins (A lot of these were mined by various bitcoin talk forum members)
Block 2201-44999: 500 coins (These were mined over a period of ~2 months!) (Total of 21,399,000 COINS!)
Block  45000-Current: ~45 coins (actual formula is (int64)(50.0/(1.1 + 0.49*((nHeight-45000)/262800))))

the following are timestamps from the gld coin blockchain...

block 1   05-15 00:48:56

block 2200 05-15 10:54:43

block 11250 05-16 00:43:30

200 x 10,000 = 2,000,000 coins created

2000 ( 2200-200) blocks x 1,000 = 2,000,000 coins created...

9050 (11250-2200) blocks x 500 = 4,525,000 coins created...

that equals 8,525,000 GLD coins created in 24 hours. Exactly what my analysis showed. 8.5 million of 31 million available? instamine. major instamine.

THANKS FOR THE SUPPORTING INFORMATION.

No. What I take issue with is your statement that the coin was "not fairly distributed" when in fact the link I provided indicates otherwise.

Also, with the coin now 12 months old and trading at less than 10% of its Dec 2013 high, your assertion that someone with a large amount of coins could "completely crash your investment" is less than genuine at best.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=231834.msg3289325#msg3289325

We agree to disagree then. I read the post and I still reiterate that a coin generation scheme such as goldcoins, no matter if they announced it or otherwise, is a poor and unfair distribution plan. It's way worse than an accidental fastmine. You seem to think if you just reassert that it is fair (because you announced it) that people will believe it.

If I announce a coin that will mine 65% of their coins that they would mine in a year in the first day, that is still an instamine and an unfairly generated coin.

Your goldcoin is merely half of that.

It's not just that someone/some people could be holding massive amounts of goldcoin. You don't want to support that kind of coin if they are going to call that coin generation plan "fair".

[MicroGuy]

It's not just that someone/some people could be holding massive amounts of goldcoin. You don't want to support that kind of coin if they are going to call that coin generation plan "fair".

The biggest problem I have with your article is that you don't present both sides of the argument and continue to omit facts that have now been brought to your attention. Yes, the original developer made some mistakes and has long ago left the project.

But I think we have a pretty good track record since I first became involved in June 2013. And I don't think you have presented any compelling evidence to support your claims that investors are at risk from early miners dumping. That time has long since passed.

[thundertoe]

I love this thread.

I made a quick live youtuber about premines and instamines Jul 28 2013 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmyIjyjQUmc&feature=share

i show cryptometer.org and frk(great no premine),  bottleCAPs(great, HBN both same algo and no premine coins)..  then i show MinCoin( )   This was made quite awhile ago, interesting to watch now in retrospect.

[toknormal]

Just to be clear, I'm extremely skeptical of an investment into a currency that hadnt been released yet to receive 5,000x increase in valuation in 1-2 months.

Hang on.

That wasn't the proposal that the investors in NXT were offered and it is disingenuous to suggest that it was.

A developer wanted to raise enough capital to complete an experimental project in cryptocurrencies, namely an evolution of the blockchain idea to support more complex transactions than simple currency transfers.

He decided what level of capital he needed (as it happens quite a small amount) to complete the project and made a public offering in exchange for said investment.

The project could have been a flop and gone nowhere. It could have been a scam and the "developer' could simply have run off with the money. It might have turned out to be work in progress that didn't get completed till 2015. It could have been successful in technological terms but garnered no market interest. Any of these things could have occurred.

As it happens, the developer honoured the agreement and also made good on the timescales for implementing early feature sets which were part of the original plan, not an easy thing to do.

It's not his fault that the rest of the world became interested to the extent they did and placed a high valuation on the asset. He had no responsibility to anyone but the original investors with whom he entered into an agreement. Nor can it be the fault of the original investors who took the risk of capitalising the development effort at the time, not knowing how it was going to turn out and simply responded to the offer.

So who do you want to blame now for the "scam" ? The rest of the market that gave it a valuation ? The current developers ?

This idiocy about "distribution" is nothing more than a desperate scramble to rationalise lost opportunities when in fact no such rationalisation is needed. Everything about the original launch of NXT was conducted with complete integrity and in good faith by all parties concerned. I am not a primary stakeholder. I bought some next on the open market after reading about it's technology specifications which I found intriguing.

The same opportunity is still available to anyone right now. It's only 6 months old which basically makes anyone investing at the moment an "early bird" relatively speaking.

[pandaisftw]

Try again, corrections happen all the time in healthy bull markets. That is investor lingo 101, not speculator lingo.

http://mutualfunds.about.com/od/activevspassivefunds/a/Market-Correction.htm

In reference to the number of coins in BTC wallets...I wasn't making a distribution argument, but nice try.

In regards to your assertion that by my definition, Bitcoin is a scam, that is incorrect. A ton has happened from the inception of BTC to today, including dozens of governments adding it to their tax code (or making it tax free) because so many of their citizens intended to use the currency. While there is speculation in bitcoin, the price has normalized nicely.

Just to be clear, I'm extremely skeptical of an investment into a currency that hadnt been released yet to receive 5,000x increase in valuation in 1-2 months. Your apparently extremely skeptical of a coin that has been accepted and utilized by tens of millions of people around the world in 5 years, had government hearings, thousands of business owners (incuding a few big businesses) accept the currency, and a number of Wall St type big wigs enter the fray (wayyyy after the early adopter period, mind you). While the likelihood of a bitcoin-like 1000% value appreciation happening is still very very low, there was a ton of demonstrable things that led to its rise in price. NXT cannot say the same AT ALL.

Yes, they do happen, but you cannot predict them. At least, TA (which is what you're doing) is used to analyze what happened after, any other claim is really trying to read a crystal ball. So it's nonsense when you say "I expect a pullback", because it really may or may not happen. What time scale is "too long" or "too short" in the cryptoworld? These are subjective arguments that anyone can make, and are equally as meaningless. Look at the rise of Bitcoin's value in November - do you see all of those sell orders? Why would *anyone* sell during that period at 300, 400, 500, 600, 700... crazy, right? Oh, wait, it's because they expected a "pullback", which really did not happen until the coin went up all the way over $1000.

Isn't this whole topic about distribution? "Instantmines" and "fastmines" are direct complaints of perceived "unfairness", because "early adopters" get too much "advantage". When you used words like "absurd profit margin" in your wiki, it's clear as day you're letting your emotions argue for you. There really is no factual basis behind your argument.

Also, I hope you can see the irony of this particular statement (in relation to your arguments) in particular:

In regards to your assertion that by my definition, Bitcoin is a scam, that is incorrect. A ton has happened from the inception of BTC to today, including dozens of governments adding it to their tax code (or making it tax free) because so many of their citizens intended to use the currency. While there is speculation in bitcoin, the price has normalized nicely.

Yes, so you're saying Bitcoin has intrinsic value (because it has other uses than just speculative value), and it would be silly to apply this simple analysis to it. I really do hope you know a lot is going on these days, and there will be a paradigm shift from shit-coins to actually-useful coins within the next few years - that's just the trend lately. Thus, yes, as I stated in an earliest post, this analysis probably applies to copycat shit-coins, but does not apply to any coin that has any particular intrinsic value. Just like Bitcoin.

As I said, you ignoring this intrinsic value in every single coin (except Bitcoin, apparently) is doing everyone a disservice. A more solid "analysis", IMO, would be to determine whether or not a particular coin has any intrinsic value, and whether or not that coin is undervalued or overvalued based on that. Statements like "it rose X, so it can't possibly rise Y" are meaningless. Statements like "it will rise X, because of Y" actually provide some insight.

For some reason, you're focusing very heavily on NXT, as if that is all I am talking about. NXT is not my only investment, but I digress. What Bitcoin is doing now is paving the way for other coins, you don't actually think alt-coins will have to go through the same process as Bitcoin did, right? (Besides adoption) Once the legal framework is in place, more people are familiar with crypto, etc. - that does not need to be done again. I believe in cryptocurrency in general, but this "analysis" is clearly an agenda to promote certain coins because you refuse to take into account of all the factors even when it's shown that your model is too simple.

But just to scratch an itch - have you seen the recent developments of NXT at all? Or are you just using what you've heard or perceived from other people? I encourage everyone to actually take a close look at what NXT is doing and not believe what FUD-sters promote, because all of these arguments ("instantmine", "distribution", etc.) are really distractions from the real point - what the ecosystem can actually do (and is doing).

Pandaisftw

[Whoisthelorax]

Just to be clear, I'm extremely skeptical of an investment into a currency that hadnt been released yet to receive 5,000x increase in valuation in 1-2 months.

Hang on.

That wasn't the proposal that the investors in NXT were offered and it is disingenuous to suggest that it was.

A developer wanted to raise enough capital to complete an experimental project in cryptocurrencies, namely an evolution of the blockchain idea to support more complex transactions than simple currency transfers.

He decided what level of capital he needed (as it happens quite a small amount) to complete the project and made a public offering in exchange for said investment.

The project could have been a flop and gone nowhere. It could have been a scam and the "developer' could simply have run off with the money. It might have turned out to be work in progress that didn't get completed till 2015. It could have been successful in technological terms but garnered no market interest. Any of these things could have occurred.

As it happens, the developer honoured the agreement and also made good on the timescales for implementing early feature sets which were part of the original plan, not an easy thing to do.

It's not his fault that the rest of the world became interested to the extent they did and placed a high valuation on the asset. He had no responsibility to anyone but the original investors with whom he entered into an agreement. Nor can it be the fault of the original investors who took the risk of capitalising the development effort at the time, not knowing how it was going to turn out and simply responded to the offer.

So who do you want to blame now for the "scam" ? The rest of the market that gave it a valuation ? The current developers ?

This idiocy about "distribution" is nothing more than a desperate scramble to rationalise lost opportunities when in fact no such rationalisation is needed. Everything about the original launch of NXT was conducted with complete integrity and in good faith by all parties concerned. I am not a primary stakeholder. I bought some next on the open market after reading about it's technology specifications which I found intriguing.

The same opportunity is still available to anyone right now. It's only 6 months old which basically makes anyone investing at the moment an "early bird" relatively speaking.

-LOL at the "same opportunity" being avaible right now. 5000x increase in valuation would put NXT in the range of 150 billion market cap.

-The launch of NXT was Conducted with complete intregity? Like ending the IPO option more than a month early?  

-take a look at before the coins hit ANY exchange....an original investor asking for a MASSIVE premium.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=303898.560

But u can buy NXT for BTC from one of us, who already got the stake.

Edit: I can sell 1 mil from my own stake for 1 BTC. I'll send them to ur account right after the launch.

...to which the first sane responder says...

if i read the genesis data right 0,01 BTC was exchanged for 498758 NXT.

1 btc for 1 mil nxt would be quite a huge premium.. but thx for the answe

It's hard to get into specifics here because btc was about to jump a few hundred percent around November 20th. We also don't know when this person posting sent their bitcoins.

But assuming THE BEST for the investor (and the worst for my argument), let's ignore the rapid valuation in btc. let's say the the btc they invested was rougly the same as the moment this pre-exchange offering occurred.

Remember...IPO ended early...NXT was barely launched...nothing had really happened...

and the logically deduced price would be .02 btc for around 1,000,000 NXT. Obviously they would want a mark up to make a little money... And this investor asked for 1 BTC when nothing had happened yet. That's a massive mark up.

Does that prove a conspiracy? of course not. It does suggest the going rate for getting NXT was SEVERELY undervalued. how can an investor receive his coins and then turn around and try to sell it for 50x? insanity. That's what I argue is not good about the coin.