How many bitcoins do I need to retire in 20 years?

[johnyj]

Easy. Nobody has any idea what the price of a bitcoin will be in 20 years. I think it is more likely to be $0 than $1,000,000, and much more likely to be $100 or $10,000. It is easier to just assume it will be whatever price it is now. So, ...

1. Decide how much money you need to live comfortably: $1,000,000.
2. Divide by the current price: $450
3. You need about 2000 BTC.

If everyone would like to get 2000 BTC, then only 10K people can have so many coins, and there are billions of people out there

I think 2 BTC is reasonable

[rudius]

I wouldn t buy and hold BTC for 20 years. It s likely that another coin will take over during that time.

I dont think they will make harforks because investors are nervous about that. Look at LTC and scrypt. They know they have to change it, but they are scared; With good reasons i guess.

We will have to make some arbitrage in the futur. But for now, it s likely that the coin which will take over Bitcoin is not born yet. A lot of new technology based on the blockchain is in study.

[gagalady]

Lets say I want to buy bitcoins today and store them for 20 years to use a my retirement fund.  Live comfortably, but don't need to buy a yacht or anything.  How many do you think I would need to buy?

If people say that  BTC will be 2 million dollars in 20 years, you would want to buy real estate for all of them and earn about $165k a year. But at the current price It's possible to get 100 Bitcoins even for a normal clever person without any high education.

[gentlemand]

Lets say I want to buy bitcoins today and store them for 20 years to use a my retirement fund.  Live comfortably, but don't need to buy a yacht or anything.  How many do you think I would need to buy?

If people say that  BTC will be 2 million dollars in 20 years, you would want to buy real estate for all of them and earn about $165k a year. But at the current price It's possible to get 100 Bitcoins even for a normal clever person without any high education.

I don't know many normal clever people with $45,000 in spare change to throw around.

Anyway, Facebookcoin? Get real. I've divided $100,000 between Amazon tokens and Starbucks gift cards. I'm gonna be RICH

[romneymoney]

If in 20 years btc is $50,000 each how stupid are you gonna feel knowing you could of bought just 1 coin for $450 today.

You could have put 1 dollar into cold storage 20 years ago and it be worth a trillion now if you were in Zimbabwe, of course those zim dollars buy you nothing useful at all.

Better to buy something useful that reduces yours costs now and in 20 years, usually land/housing.  What dollar or btc do are secondary to real costs most likely?

Housing is great for living in and it is a relatively safe investment (value won't go to 0)
However even without a mortgage the maintenance and taxes are a significant cost.  Price appreciation (if it happens) can be negated by these costs.

[el_Tico]

There's a high chance you'll sell you coins before it hit's 2 million and end up like the early miners who mined thousands of coins but now have very few.

[rudius]

There's a high chance you'll sell you coins before it hit's 2 million and end up like the early miners who mined thousands of coins but now have very few.

The best remarks so far. I m new to bitcoin(nov 2013) and i wonder what % of BTC early miners ( i mean geeks ) still have.

[counter]

I'm not sure but my  guess is 60 and up is a good place to aim.

[roslinpl]

Lets say I want to buy bitcoins today and store them for 20 years to use a my retirement fund.  Live comfortably, but don't need to buy a yacht or anything.  How many do you think I would need to buy?

Hard to say ... I would say if you want to have expensive vacations etc. when you retire I say hodl 10BTC
=D

[CoinDiver]

1) $1,000,000 is not enough. 2) USD is not going to be worth much in 20 years compared to today.

Those are independant statements.

Continue to buy at any price, so long as you are comfortable with the future value of bitcoin.

[hellscabane]

In 20 years, BTC at $1M a piece would put the market cap around $2T. Based on current rate of inflation that'd be around 3.5-4% of M2 at that point. As great as the promise of Bitcoin is, that number just seems way too high for me.

I'd say get 25. At $60k (which is still quite a bit) each in 20 years, that'll put you at $1.5M.

(Sure there are considerations of whether $1.5M will actually mean anything, but we can leave that for another conversation.)

[counter]

I'm seeing what I would call alot of low estimates.  I think some people to blow up haha I hope so also but some seem to have some big expectations. 

[BitchicksHusband]

20 years from now? 0.05 bitcoin IMO. But hell, why not just store away 1 bitcoin in cold storage I'd suggest electrum and also memorize the seed.

Yeah.  I'm sure his memory will be good 20 years from now.

[BitchicksHusband]

If in 20 years btc is $50,000 each how stupid are you gonna feel knowing you could of bought just 1 coin for $450 today.

You could have put 1 dollar into cold storage 20 years ago and it be worth a trillion now if you were in Zimbabwe, of course those zim dollars buy you nothing useful at all.

Better to buy something useful that reduces yours costs now and in 20 years, usually land/housing.  What dollar or btc do are secondary to real costs most likely?

Housing is great for living in and it is a relatively safe investment (value won't go to 0)
However even without a mortgage the maintenance and taxes are a significant cost.  Price appreciation (if it happens) can be negated by these costs.

A LOT of people's housing has gone to 0.  Have you never heard of foreclosure?

[Rockefeller]

IMO, that's really depends on many factors
1) how long are you going to live?
2) what amount  in your opinion is enough to live?
3) how BTC price will change as no one can tel you cause it's too volatile and young now to make long-term forecast

[bitsmichel]

If you know the future market prices, you can retire in 2 month

[lyth0s]

20 years from now? 0.05 bitcoin IMO. But hell, why not just store away 1 bitcoin in cold storage I'd suggest electrum and also memorize the seed.

Yeah.  I'm sure his memory will be good 20 years from now.

The cold storage can include an electrum wallet saved on a USB + CD/DVD + also on a paper wallet AND remember the seed by memory. I'm not saying the cold storage has to strictly be a brain wallet by any means...

[Asrael999]

Get as many as 5-10% of your savings will buy and put the rest of your savings in other tangible assets, i'll include equity in this description for purposes here.  Get a diverse mix, a bunch of stocks, some metals,some real estate, avoid debt instruments if you can. Then invest in more as you accrue more savings trying to keep the balance.
If you are thinking retirement saving never put it all in one place, diversity is important as it lowers your risk and keeps the returns. If Bitcoin does get to $1,000,000 a coin at some stage then $2000 invested now will pay off handsomely - but if it goes there because the USD has become worthless then, real estate may give you a better real return.

[Zhan21]

1 BITCOIN

[CryptoBaron]

If your looking down the road. Start investing like you would anything else and take 10% (if you can afford it) of what your currently making per check and invest in bitcoin. You'll be surprised how fast it's going to grow.