Does martingale really works?

[Herbert2020]

i have tried using martingale for a long time with different chances and different bankroll. but the result that i have gotten is still the same after this long.
no matter what i did i always end up losing whenever i use martingale for long run.

[Phildo]

Whats the point of having so much rolls? That is not guarantee you will win a lot from that high roll small bet. You will can sustain more losses but it is just wasting time if you can't get profit from it




[/quote


I have no idea why people set up bots to run so many rolls in a row without actually doing anything, but that doesn't change the fact that people do it. It is much easier to get to 1 million rolls, and therefore have a 38% chance of losing 20 in a row and losing everything on a dice site with a bot than it would be at a roulette table if you had the bankroll and a casino willing to set up limits allowing you to use a martingale system where it takes 20 bets in a row to go broke.

[interbtc]

lets you use martingale at least 20 times, which should be a "rare" event, you should be able to make a profit (if you can call 1 satoshi a profit).

20 times is not actually rare, it happen most of the time especially in a big site like PrimeDice which you can check that they have people gibbering the same thing about the house being rigged because of 20 + lost streak.
Also 1 satoshi is not a profit because you merely need to win 10,001 satoshi and withdraw it to your wallet to consider that you got profit considering the site is using standard 10k satoshi miners fee

Well if you need one million tosses to get a 38% of getting 20 heads in a row, that makes it a little "rare".
I'm not a dice expert, I don't know the amount of time you need to roll it a million times (guessing it should be fast with bots), and that's probably the reason you say that it happens "most of the time".

Not saying I like martingale or that it is profitable. I don't like and I don't consider it profitable. And like you said you always have the bet limit, which totally makes it undoable.

There's no way that can beat the house edge, any profit you have now is because variance is currently in your favor. It can swing down fast and hard, you should probably quit while you're up.

[patt0]

lets you use martingale at least 20 times, which should be a "rare" event, you should be able to make a profit (if you can call 1 satoshi a profit).

20 times is not actually rare, it happen most of the time especially in a big site like PrimeDice which you can check that they have people gibbering the same thing about the house being rigged because of 20 + lost streak.
Also 1 satoshi is not a profit because you merely need to win 10,001 satoshi and withdraw it to your wallet to consider that you got profit considering the site is using standard 10k satoshi miners fee

Well if you need one million tosses to get a 38% of getting 20 heads in a row, that makes it a little "rare".
I'm not a dice expert, I don't know the amount of time you need to roll it a million times (guessing it should be fast with bots), and that's probably the reason you say that it happens "most of the time".

Not saying I like martingale or that it is profitable. I don't like and I don't consider it profitable. And like you said you always have the bet limit, which totally makes it undoable.

There's no way that can beat the house edge, any profit you have now is because variance is currently in your favor. It can swing down fast and hard, you should probably quit while you're up.

Sorry I did not understand. I'm not in favor of martingale. I don't like it, like I said in my last statement.
What is the point in getting to a state that you will be risking around 1 btc or more to "win" 1 satoshi.

20 times is not actually rare, it happen most of the time especially in a big site like PrimeDice which you can check that they have people gibbering the same thing about the house being rigged because of 20 + lost streak.
Also 1 satoshi is not a profit because you merely need to win 10,001 satoshi and withdraw it to your wallet to consider that you got profit considering the site is using standard 10k satoshi miners fee

Well if you need one million tosses to get a 38% of getting 20 heads in a row, that makes it a little "rare".

You are getting a wrong point here, it is not you need X number of bets to get it but it happens once every X bets so it happens quite alot especially if you are playing in some popular dice sites. It is not impossible to happen because each bet is dependant and you could even suffer a loss streak with 1.02 multiplier.

You may think that it is "rare" but in fact it is normal and happens quite alot ( check PrimeDice's thread ) . You could suffer a lost streak after having X number of rolls or even the exact moment after you start your rolls or best scenario is that you are "lucky" and never have any lost streak

I'm sorry but I think you are getting a wrong point here, as it was stated in the site I mentioned when they reviewed the math. They did because of that misconception, that according to the author was also published in the Times, and it was wrong.

It does not happen once every x bets (x here being 1 million according to Times, that said that odds of getting 20 head rows were 1 in a million, as for 100% in a million). In fact it is not, it is 0.38 in a million, as for the 38% of getting it in a million tosses. That's why I said it is a "rare" event.

Of course you see it "all the time", because it is easy to get 1 million rolls in a site with bots etc, so if you are exposed to those 38% so many times it will happen to you of course, but it is not that common, nor it should be that common, as you are saying (38% in a million is not a common thing).

Again I am not in favor of martingale, neither I think it is profitable!

[mr.coinstrader]

If you were playing 50% bets, losing 15 times at a row is rare but not very rare.

[sbankerdemon]

I was playing with 0.0002 btc as base bet and with 2x multiplier last year and ended up betting 2BTC in final bet when I lost again and I decided to quit. Before that I made good money also.

[adaseb]

well, I have to admit, that I'm little bit addicted watching others gambling:) this is few minutes old from one popular dice:



after this streak (5 losses in row, -5BTC) in less than two minutes I decided to stay away..

I was watching that too, or some similar user. He started I think with like 1000 sats and kept losing and he kept martinging over and over again and was cleaned out.

Not pretty too look at.

[SyGambler]

well, I have to admit, that I'm little bit addicted watching others gambling:) this is few minutes old from one popular dice:



after this streak (5 losses in row, -5BTC) in less than two minutes I decided to stay away..

this guy lost serious money , but 5 losses in a row are very common
so maybe he was just trying his luck and he has a lot of coins , or maybe the base bet was smaller than 0.16 and he got a really bad streak

[tspacepilot]

I think that what really blows my mind is the idea that after 79 pages of forum posts, there's really something more to say about "Does martingale really works?".

If reading through the 79 pages already got you here and you really still find something to debate about this, maybe it's time to make a new thread because surely that is no longer about whether it works or not.

I'm just saying, I participated a lot in this thread in the first 20 - 30 pages, I left links to the wikipedia, I made many of join probabilities, wrote explanations.  Then, I thought, it has all been said, we can wait for a few more late people to bump this thread a few last times and that will be it.  But now, months later and 40 more pages of thread and you guys are still writing the same damn questions over and over.  Please just look upthread and your questions will be answered and we can let this topic be finished and move on with our lives.  Please people, just read a little bit and you'll be surprised to find more information than you can stomach about whether martingale really does works!

Ok, I really needed to get that rant off my chest, and I also hope we might take it to heart and let this topic be done now.  Yes?

[XinXan]

I think that what really blows my mind is the idea that after 79 pages of forum posts, there's really something more to say about "Does martingale really works?".

If reading through the 79 pages already got you here and you really still find something to debate about this, maybe it's time to make a new thread because surely that is no longer about whether it works or not.

I'm just saying, I participated a lot in this thread in the first 20 - 30 pages, I left links to the wikipedia, I made many of join probabilities, wrote explanations.  Then, I thought, it has all been said, we can wait for a few more late people to bump this thread a few last times and that will be it.  But now, months later and 40 more pages of thread and you guys are still writing the same damn questions over and over.  Please just look upthread and your questions will be answered and we can let this topic be finished and move on with our lives.  Please people, just read a little bit and you'll be surprised to find more information than you can stomach about whether martingale really does works!

Ok, I really needed to get that rant off my chest, and I also hope we might take it to heart and let this topic be done now.  Yes?

I know it really pisses me off seeing this thread bumped always and i told someone recently if he was posting here just to increase his post count and that its obviously the case for so many people, the thread should be locked.

[sbankerdemon]

same thing happeded to me I lost more than 2 btc but my base bet was 0.0002

[madonnino]

same thing happeded to me I lost more than 2 btc but my base bet was 0.0002

martingale work only on the short run, this morning i made 0.10 thanks to martingale, but it's very very risky...try it only if u can afford to lose the btc in your bankroll

[yoloer808]

You guys need to let this thread die. Martingale is massively EV-, it's more profitable to just bet your entire balance on one bet, with odds that you want.

[Xialla]

@Xialla
sorry to here about the big loss dude, losing ~5BTC really sux

huh, it is not me, no worries, I was just observing high bets and saw this..in my country is 5BTC (~1360USD) like month salary, which is unreachable for majority, so it looks like from another universe for me:))

[BTCevo]

Whats the point of having so much rolls? That is not guarantee you will win a lot from that high roll small bet. You will can sustain more losses but it is just wasting time if you can't get profit from it

I have no idea why people set up bots to run so many rolls in a row without actually doing anything, but that doesn't change the fact that people do it. It is much easier to get to 1 million rolls, and therefore have a 38% chance of losing 20 in a row and losing everything on a dice site with a bot than it would be at a roulette table if you had the bankroll and a casino willing to set up limits allowing you to use a martingale system where it takes 20 bets in a row to go broke.

Actually I didnt get what are you saying. The point is to make 1 million rolls without getting any profit is such a waste here. Although you make 1 million rolls and have 38% chance of losing it is pretty bad. Why not get a low rolls but get huge profit that seems more reliable and more efficient of your time too

[WhatTheGox]

well, I have to admit, that I'm little bit addicted watching others gambling:) this is few minutes old from one popular dice:



after this streak (5 losses in row, -5BTC) in less than two minutes I decided to stay away..

Ouch, i hope that you can afford to lose that amount.  Very important to play for fun

fwiw i have had more success just betting the same amount on 50/50 bets vs increasing bet on lose.  But hey its all down to luck.

[reefsea]

im not really sure, martiangle works for it
but in gambling we need  patience, skill and experience.

[adaseb]

Whats the point of having so much rolls? That is not guarantee you will win a lot from that high roll small bet. You will can sustain more losses but it is just wasting time if you can't get profit from it

I have no idea why people set up bots to run so many rolls in a row without actually doing anything, but that doesn't change the fact that people do it. It is much easier to get to 1 million rolls, and therefore have a 38% chance of losing 20 in a row and losing everything on a dice site with a bot than it would be at a roulette table if you had the bankroll and a casino willing to set up limits allowing you to use a martingale system where it takes 20 bets in a row to go broke.

Actually I didnt get what are you saying. The point is to make 1 million rolls without getting any profit is such a waste here. Although you make 1 million rolls and have 38% chance of losing it is pretty bad. Why not get a low rolls but get huge profit that seems more reliable and more efficient of your time too

yes and another thing you need to consider is the amount of time that you have to invest to make those million rolls. Most sites you can only make 1 roll per second.

[pooya87]

Whats the point of having so much rolls? That is not guarantee you will win a lot from that high roll small bet. You will can sustain more losses but it is just wasting time if you can't get profit from it

I have no idea why people set up bots to run so many rolls in a row without actually doing anything, but that doesn't change the fact that people do it. It is much easier to get to 1 million rolls, and therefore have a 38% chance of losing 20 in a row and losing everything on a dice site with a bot than it would be at a roulette table if you had the bankroll and a casino willing to set up limits allowing you to use a martingale system where it takes 20 bets in a row to go broke.

Actually I didnt get what are you saying. The point is to make 1 million rolls without getting any profit is such a waste here. Although you make 1 million rolls and have 38% chance of losing it is pretty bad. Why not get a low rolls but get huge profit that seems more reliable and more efficient of your time too

i think he means the fact that many people run a bot (the site's bot or any external bot) and leave it to bet for hours. what is the point of that!
i have the same feeling too, this is gambling and the fun is when you do the rolls and win or lose on your bets. i don't get the reason what is the fun when you leave a tab open to bet for you for hours.
it is more like mining bitcoin rather than playing a gambling game.

[Altcoin4life]

Whats the point of having so much rolls? That is not guarantee you will win a lot from that high roll small bet. You will can sustain more losses but it is just wasting time if you can't get profit from it

I have no idea why people set up bots to run so many rolls in a row without actually doing anything, but that doesn't change the fact that people do it. It is much easier to get to 1 million rolls, and therefore have a 38% chance of losing 20 in a row and losing everything on a dice site with a bot than it would be at a roulette table if you had the bankroll and a casino willing to set up limits allowing you to use a martingale system where it takes 20 bets in a row to go broke.

Actually I didnt get what are you saying. The point is to make 1 million rolls without getting any profit is such a waste here. Although you make 1 million rolls and have 38% chance of losing it is pretty bad. Why not get a low rolls but get huge profit that seems more reliable and more efficient of your time too

i think he means the fact that many people run a bot (the site's bot or any external bot) and leave it to bet for hours. what is the point of that!
i have the same feeling too, this is gambling and the fun is when you do the rolls and win or lose on your bets. i don't get the reason what is the fun when you leave a tab open to bet for you for hours.
it is more like mining bitcoin rather than playing a gambling game.

It's called a difference of opinion some like playing manual some only care about strategy and outcome.  So setting up a bot and strategies is fun for some.