Here we go

[oda.krell]

The chart by Elwar relies on the data point of the flash crash in October 2013, so it can construct the "nice line" from Jan 2013, via October 2013, to now.

The beauty of that October 2013 Silk Road Flash Crash was that even with the huge amount of fear around in the Bitcoin market on that day, $85 was as low as Bitcoin went.

The Beauty about the Gox-coin 'firesale' is that it showed enough people subscribe to the exponential growth support and resistance level theory, for Goxcoin to stop falling right at the point where it met the long term exponential support trendline.

I don't think it would be wise to take the Gox data seriously during the last few days and weeks of its existence. People were no longer trading BTC - they were trading bets on Gox's survival.

You noticed that in the chart I posted, I specifically said to exclude the last period of trading, so the trendline isn't relying on the gox death throes.

Still, 3 areas of contact, so at least as good as the Bitstamp chart.

[dnaleor]

Chart created with bitcoinaverage data. Projected previous 2 bubbles on the recent low of 340 USD.
For what it's worth  

[roslinpl]

Chart created with bitcoinaverage data. Projected previous 2 bubbles on the recent low of 340 USD.
For what it's worth  

very optimistic predictions! And I do agree with it!
It looks similar to OP charts speculation - isn't?

So we are starting a rally in a week?

Can't wait! must say.

[segeln]

So we are starting a rally in a week?
Can't wait! must say.

no,a Rally will start in about 4 weeks, not earlier.Up to then still lateral movement around 450 $
(Regulation by Ben Lawsky NY)

[alani123]

We might be starting a rally week or we're probably not.

Chart data is not the only thing that helps predict market movements! And this is why predictions like this are rarely accurate. Maybe next week we'll get a nother announcement from people's bank of china that will lead to massive amounts of coins being dumped and the price falling straight down again. Who know? The charts don't for sure.

[dnaleor]

Chart created with bitcoinaverage data. Projected previous 2 bubbles on the recent low of 340 USD.
For what it's worth  

very optimistic predictions! And I do agree with it!
It looks similar to OP charts speculation - isn't?

So we are starting a rally in a week?

Can't wait! must say.

I'm always very conservative in my predictions. So no, I don't think we will see >6000 USD this year.
But even if the next "bubble" is only 50% of what I showed here, it will still be awesome (top between 3000 and 4000 and 1500 - 2000 at the end of the year)

[dnaleor]

If the next growth spurt takes place within this year. I'm not saying it won't, I'm just saying that it might not. The first catalyst we actually see on the horizon is the listing of a Bitcoin ETF on a major exchange. Of course unforeseen catalysts may materialize in the meantime. In the meantime the value of Bitcoin (no the price) continues to rise and rise. At some point market price will too.

I agree

I have the feeling that ebay/paypal will add bitcoin in Q3. I know it's just a "feeling", but this could mark the start of a new rally 

[r34tr783tr78]

The Op's chart is a deliberate joke, to mock bulls.
Anyone took it seriously?

[segeln]

The Op's chart is a deliberate joke, to mock bulls.
Anyone took it seriously?

no,OP`s Chart at the beginning of this thread is from the Chart technical Point of view correct.
compare. http://www.godmode-trader.de/analyse/bitcoins-situation-spitzt-sich-zu-2,3730868

[roslinpl]

The Op's chart is a deliberate joke, to mock bulls.
Anyone took it seriously?

no,OP`s Chart at the beginning of this thread is from the Chart technical Point of view correct.
compare. http://www.godmode-trader.de/analyse/bitcoins-situation-spitzt-sich-zu-2,3730868

Yes indeed it is nothing to be laughing at.

I think a year ago people who were posting charts with predictions of $800 were mentioned to be "mad" "stupid" "joking" etc...

so... there is nothing impossible in the OP predictions.

[ElectricMucus]

Barack Obama making a public announcement outlawing Bitcoin across the globe and threatening to use force (if necessary) against countries who allow Bitcoin to proliferate within thier borders, would make you feel bullish.....

...."Gee look guys! Obama just declared war on Bitcoin! We got em running scared now! 2 da Moon!!"

It would make me over the top mega uber bullish. I'm dead serious.

Somehow I hoped you would say that.

[Elwar]

The Op's chart is a deliberate joke, to mock bulls.
Anyone took it seriously?

Nah, I was just trying to find an extension of this chart: https://www.tradingview.com/v/7YEmxS3K/

so I made one myself, I suck at charts, that was the first one I have done in the 4 years I've been following Bitcoin

[r34tr783tr78]

That chart is a Logarithmic one, while most traders use linear Charts. I'm not saying  Logarithmic charters are not legitimate, just saying that most traders don't care for them.

Anyway, under its own terms, a breach of the 440 would leave bitcoin on a very fragil situation.

Remember also that to breach again the 1156 (bitstamp), it would be necessary all the money that went sideways since that value. And to go above, it would be necessary a massive influx of money: and, this time, it couldn't be chinese.

[bassclef]

That chart is a Logarithmic one, while most traders use linear Charts. I'm not saying  Logarithmic charters are not legitimate, just saying that most traders don't care for them.

Anyway, under its own terms, a breach of the 440 would leave bitcoin on a very fragil situation.

Remember also that to breach again the 1156 (bitstamp), it would be necessary all the money that went sideways since that value. And to go above, it would be necessary a massive influx of money: and, this time, it couldn't be chinese.

I use log charts. Of course they are useful as bitcoin follows a logarithmic adoption curve; it's silly to say that traders don't like them.

My take on all this bull vs bear nonsense is that I don't see why we couldn't have another exponential adoption sometime this summer. The fact is we see repeating "bubble" patterns because of Bitcoin's limited supply combined with human psychology. You can find miniature versions of these in the altcoin markets. Why not? Infrastructure/business continues to be built and adoption is increasing. Wall Street may start getting their feet wet. Turns out they are pretty risk-averse and love regulation, but this technology is just too interesting and lucrative to resist. The investment banking guys I've talked to are interested (very much so) but don't understand how it works and the implications of its digital ownership protocol. That will change with time.

So China might ban it again. So what? We lose $50 in value. It's largely been priced in anyway.

The way I see it, the internet gave us decentralized information exchange. Now in Bitcoin we have a technology that is decentralized digital ownership and property transfer. Sure governments don't like it... big deal... they can get on board or we'll simply wait for the current luddite leaders to die in 20 years. Blockchains will still exist and will evolve and mature faster than centralized leviathan institutions can keep up.

[r34tr783tr78]

My first reaction to the Op comments was that he somehow mixed a linear and a logarithmic chart in order to drawn the lines. But I already verified he didn't, so the chart is legitimate.

[yefi]

The more that people believe in the inviolability of these long term trends, the greater the destruction that will be wrought when they fail. People will be consternated, searching hopelessly for direction from a compass absent its magnetism.

[RandomPedestrianN9]

The more that people believe in the inviolability of these long term trends, the greater the destruction that will be wrought when they fail. People will be consternated, searching hopelessly for direction from a compass absent its magnetism.

And thats when Fundamental Analysis comes into the pub and says: "Oh, wait."

[zimmah]

The more that people believe in the inviolability of these long term trends, the greater the destruction that will be wrought when they fail. People will be consternated, searching hopelessly for direction from a compass absent its magnetism.

no one claimed they are inviolable, that doesn't make them invalid though.

It's speculation for a reason, stop chanting "past results are no guarantee for future gains"we all know that, but this is the speculation section, if you don't like speculation don't go here.

The only way you can make an educated guess for what the future might bring is looking at the past. Otherwise you're just pulling up numbers out of your ass. Speculation is never scientific and no one claims it is.

[mmortal03]

That chart is a Logarithmic one, while most traders use linear Charts. I'm not saying  Logarithmic charters are not legitimate, just saying that most traders don't care for them.

lol

[segeln]

That chart is a Logarithmic one, while most traders use linear Charts. I'm not saying  Logarithmic charters are not legitimate, just saying that most traders don't care for them.

sorry,but that`s wrong.Just the other way round.
Because in short term timescale you won`t see any differenc in log or linear use. But in longterm or even midterm ( 3 to 9 months) linear is misleading.
The op`s Chart is excellent.