rpietila Altcoin Observer

[TooDumbForBitcoin]

The indisputable sign that XMR has made it as a cryptocurrency will be the infestation of the Monero thread by digitaria Stolfinia

[ThomasCrowne]

After carefully reading the OP I've decided to take a much closer look at Monero for potential investment.

[cAPSLOCK]

The indisputable sign that XMR has made it as a cryptocurrency will be the infestation of the Monero thread by digitaria Stolfinia

LOL.  Unfortunately you are probably right.

[cAPSLOCK]

The indisputable sign that XMR has made it as a cryptocurrency will be the infestation of the Monero thread by digitaria Stolfinia

LOL.  Unfortunately you are probably right.

Someone called? 

Now THIS is WAY more bullish than any Mintpal addition.  Of course you don't really LIKE the idea of Monero do you Jorge? 

Is it bad to keep our money where there is no way for government to see?

[JorgeStolfi]

Of course you don't really LIKE the idea of Monero do you Jorge? 
Is it bad to keep our money where there is no way for government to see?

My opinion is irrelevant.  You should worry about what your government thinks of it.

[cAPSLOCK]

Of course you don't really LIKE the idea of Monero do you Jorge? 
Is it bad to keep our money where there is no way for government to see?

My opinion is irrelevant.  You should worry about what your government thinks of it.

I am very very worried about what my government thinks of it.  Which is one reason I am glad there are ways emerging to protect my financial privacy.

[superresistant]

I think a local coins exchange via Mycelium would be super helpful because it would provide both wallet utility infrastructure and a distributed demand liquidity soak.

That's a great idea ! Decentralized FIAT exchange are the way to go.

Of course you don't really LIKE the idea of Monero do you Jorge? 
Is it bad to keep our money where there is no way for government to see?

My opinion is irrelevant.  You should worry about what your government thinks of it.

I am very very worried about what my government thinks of it.  Which is one reason I am glad there are ways emerging to protect my financial privacy.

Haha exactly. Today Cryptocurrencies are tolerated but tomorrow you'll be either fully confiscated (like gold before) or a criminal.
We need financial privacy to survive if things goes wrong and I believe it will.

[dga]

Regardless, the solution to this is to get the miner open sourced, and the bounty for the stratum implementation just crossed 1000 BBR (about 1.9 BTC - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=657484 ), which is, in my estimation, in the range that starts to get interesting for the people who can do this work well.  One developer has expressed interest in jumping for it.  I suspect we'll see something quite soon, and we can put at least one FUD-machine to bed and get back to arguing about the technical and economic merits of the coins.

btw - while I haven't been annoyed enough about this gpu-fear-hype machine to actually hack stratum/jsonrpc code into convoluted c in cpuminer, I have been annoyed enough to spend a bunch of time optimizing the CPU miner, and Zoidberg has done the same.  The most recent commits improve standalone CPU mining speed by somewhere around 20% on windows and 57% on Linux:

(win):  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=577267.msg7444825#msg7444825
(lnx):  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=577267.msg7452285#msg7452285

We won't know how the increasing scratchpad size, optimizations, etc., all interact, but I believe that these improvements will narrow the gap substantially between the hypothetical GPU miner, any private optimized miners hanging out there in secret, and the every-day small-scale pool miner.  I'm even optimistic that these changes are better for desktops than for massive EC2 servers, which is kind of fun.  Archit tells me he's making progress pursuing the cpuminer stratum/bbr integration bounty.

So with all of this, I hope we can put the mining distribution FUD to sleep for a while.   Call me weird, but I think the most important battle is not between XMR and BBR.  Both are at the forefront of privacy-enhanced cryptocurrency, and some push and shove between them as they claw for market share will probably be good for overall innovation in the cryptonote space.  The real question will be real-world deployment and use vs the bitcoin family:  how much does the market value stronger anonymity and privacy, and to what degree can these features be successfully backported into existing currencies?

[slapper]

Personally I was hoping there would be no more cannibalization between CN coins and or a co-ordinated FUD against XMR from some disgruntled BCN followers. I respect BBR dev, but I can't understand the thought of breaking the market when a majority accepted XMR as the go to CN coin. With the private miner in BBR only a select few are enriching themselves for now and even the future with their big stashes. I noticed a slight simultaneous XMR downtrend and a corresponding BBR uptrend situation today for the first time.

[aminorex]

Personally I was hoping there would be no more cannibalization between CN coins and or a co-ordinated FUD against XMR from some disgruntled BCN followers. I respect BBR dev, but I can't understand the thought of breaking the market when a majority accepted XMR as the go to CN coin. With the private miner in BBR only a select few are enriching themselves for now and even the future with their big stashes. I noticed a slight simultaneous XMR downtrend and a corresponding BBR uptrend situation today for the first time.

i seriously doubt there is any meaningful correlation between bbr and xmr pricing, once you subtract beta factors.  that doesn't mean bbr isn't dilutive -- it is dilutive, but only in the short-run.  (in the long run dark liquidity will be a monopoly, i.e. radically dominated by one vehicle.)

bbr is a one-man show run by a very talented control-freak.  in order to have any hope of becoming the monopoly currency it would first need a complete relaunch under a new name, with a competent CEO type at the helm, and a diverse development team.  

that said, it has interest, it is making a contribution, and it will probably do well, as minor alt currencies go, if only on the strength of CZs talent and energy.  as it is open source, we all benefit from those contributions.  while it is understandable that one might prefer not to be diluted in the near term, that is just a necessary cost of benefiting from those contributions.

In contrast, QCN, MCN, FCN - these are just crap.  If I were the judge, the developers of these coins would be shot and their families billed for the bullet.  The BCN founders would merely be sent to Fort Leavenworth for a decade or so.

[slapper]

i seriously doubt there is any meaningful correlation between bbr and xmr pricing, once you subtract beta factors.  that doesn't mean bbr isn't dilutive -- it is dilutive, but only in the short-run.  (in the long run dark liquidity will be a monopoly, i.e. radically dominated by one vehicle.)

I did mean short term hedge/profiteering/dilution vis-a-vis BBR, but thanks for the reassurance as I take your comments very seriously.  

bbr is a one-man show run by a very talented control-freak.  in order to have any hope of becoming the monopoly currency it would first need a complete relaunch under a new name, with a competent CEO type at the helm, and a diverse development team.  

that said, it has interest, it is making a contribution, and it will probably do well, as minor alt currencies go, if only on the strength of CZs talent and energy.  as it is open source, we all benefit from those contributions.  while it is understandable that one might prefer not to be diluted in the near term, that is just a necessary cost of benefiting from those contributions.

Agreed for the most part, except probably for the control freak portrayal of CZ. He seems to have BCN and t_f_t connections for sure though, from the little I have followed.

In contrast, QCN, MCN, FNM - these are just crap.  If I were the judge, the developers of these coins would be shot and their families billed for the bullet.  The BCN founders would merely be sent to Fort Leavenworth for a decade or so.

LMAO. Not sure about the shooting part, but the QCN guy is one of the worst scumbags on the forums.

[devphp]

such butthurt, much anger

[AlexGR]

Personally I was hoping there would be no more cannibalization between CN coins and or a co-ordinated FUD against XMR from some disgruntled BCN followers. I respect BBR dev, but I can't understand the thought of breaking the market when a majority accepted XMR as the go to CN coin. With the private miner in BBR only a select few are enriching themselves for now and even the future with their big stashes. I noticed a slight simultaneous XMR downtrend and a corresponding BBR uptrend situation today for the first time.

i seriously doubt there is any meaningful correlation between bbr and xmr pricing, once you subtract beta factors.  that doesn't mean bbr isn't dilutive -- it is dilutive, but only in the short-run.  (in the long run dark liquidity will be a monopoly, i.e. radically dominated by one vehicle.)

bbr is a one-man show run by a very talented control-freak.  in order to have any hope of becoming the monopoly currency it would first need a complete relaunch under a new name, with a competent CEO type at the helm, and a diverse development team.  

that said, it has interest, it is making a contribution, and it will probably do well, as minor alt currencies go, if only on the strength of CZs talent and energy.  as it is open source, we all benefit from those contributions.  while it is understandable that one might prefer not to be diluted in the near term, that is just a necessary cost of benefiting from those contributions.

In contrast, QCN, MCN, FCN - these are just crap.  If I were the judge, the developers of these coins would be shot and their families billed for the bullet.  The BCN founders would merely be sent to Fort Leavenworth for a decade or so.

You are giving ideas now for BBR spinoffs with better names

[statdude]

Today I estimate the marginal cost of production of 1 XMR, using Amazon C3.8xlarge spot instances, as 0.0104 BTC.

If difficulty continues to rise exponentially it will overrun the ability of the numeraire pipe to provide demand liquidity.
MintPal would help in that regard.  With additional exchanges, new coins can more easily be absorbed. 

I think a local coins exchange via Mycelium would be super helpful because it would provide both wallet utility infratructure and a distributed demand liquidity soak.

Whether XMR can maintain its leadership position through the course of a difficulty/demand mismatch and correction -- that issue will be it's first major existential hurdle.

XMR has roughly doubled in 3 days.  On those grounds in isolation I would be inclined to sell, but I can't sell much, because it is not overvalued relative to the marginal cost of production.

I estimate the cost of mining via ec2 c3.8xlarge spot instances at 0.0067 right now (including 7% orphans).

If it goes 20% over this or 20% under this I will buy or sell.  Meanwhile, I wait.

If you are not invested in XMR yet, it is not unreasonable to start dollar cost averaging now, even after the 2x in 3 days, simply because difficulty continues to increase, and the possibility of missing the train is about as painful as the possibility of a drawdown.  However, I would not do it too fast.  Dollar cost averaging is the best advice.

So, 0.0067 at diff 641mm,
0.0104 at diff 775mm
So, estimated cost to produce = Difficulty/82800000000
Difficulty at 1 billion (how soon?), then cost to produce=  0.012 ?

[darlidada]

you guys will have to do your calculation again : monero difficulty just hit an ATH of 800M

[aminorex]

So, estimated cost to produce = Difficulty/82800000000

One had might as well do it right.  There are other variables, although they vary less rapidly over time than does difficulty:

(Difficulty hash/block * Rate $/hr) / (Hostrate hash/sec * 3600 sec/hr * Reward xmr/block * Nonorphan block/block * Exchange $/btc) = N btc/xmr

Rate (EC2 c3.8xlarge spot instance pricing) is ~0.2575 usd/hr [1]
Exchange is ~600 usd/btc
Difficulty is 8.1e8 [2]
Hostrate (EC2 c3.8xlarge) is 610 hash/sec [2]
Reward is ~16.07 xmr/block [3]
Nonorphan rate (pool mined) is ~0.93

1. http://aws.amazon.com/ec2/purchasing-options/spot-instances/
2. https://minergate.com/blockchain/mro/block/372ad817b077c058e269ae0ea7c6d6bc603578be568e3f51f2e4d436ede04c51
3. https://docs.google.com/a/southoftheclouds.net/spreadsheets/d/1MI-ic0Os25hgGUImW54sUIjZY_pUNQNa_W8Se5pRGBs

EDIT: with new parameters at this moment the marginal production cost estimate is 0.011 btc/xmr (2014-06-23 01:00 GMT)

[saddambitcoin]

So, estimated cost to produce = Difficulty/82800000000

One had might as well do it right.  There are other variables, although they vary less rapidly over time than does difficulty:

(Difficulty hash/block * Rate $/hr) / (Hostrate hash/sec * 3600 sec/hr * Reward xmr/block * Nonorphan block/block * Exchange $/btc) = N btc/xmr

Rate (EC2 c3.8xlarge spot instance pricing) is ~0.2575 usd/hr [1]
Exchange is ~600 usd/btc
Difficulty is 8.1e8 [2]
Hostrate (EC2 c3.8xlarge) is 610 hash/sec [2]
Reward is ~16.07 xmr/block [3]
Nonorphan rate (pool mined) is ~0.93

1. http://aws.amazon.com/ec2/purchasing-options/spot-instances/
2. https://minergate.com/blockchain/mro/block/372ad817b077c058e269ae0ea7c6d6bc603578be568e3f51f2e4d436ede04c51
3. https://docs.google.com/a/southoftheclouds.net/spreadsheets/d/1MI-ic0Os25hgGUImW54sUIjZY_pUNQNa_W8Se5pRGBs

EDIT: with new parameters at this moment the marginal production cost estimate is 0.011 btc/xmr (2014-06-23 01:00 GMT)

thanks for the detail, i was trying to figure this out myself.

if this is the case, why is anyone selling Monero this cheap?

[canonsburg]

So, estimated cost to produce = Difficulty/82800000000

One had might as well do it right.  There are other variables, although they vary less rapidly over time than does difficulty:

(Difficulty hash/block * Rate $/hr) / (Hostrate hash/sec * 3600 sec/hr * Reward xmr/block * Nonorphan block/block * Exchange $/btc) = N btc/xmr

Rate (EC2 c3.8xlarge spot instance pricing) is ~0.2575 usd/hr [1]
Exchange is ~600 usd/btc
Difficulty is 8.1e8 [2]
Hostrate (EC2 c3.8xlarge) is 610 hash/sec [2]
Reward is ~16.07 xmr/block [3]
Nonorphan rate (pool mined) is ~0.93

1. http://aws.amazon.com/ec2/purchasing-options/spot-instances/
2. https://minergate.com/blockchain/mro/block/372ad817b077c058e269ae0ea7c6d6bc603578be568e3f51f2e4d436ede04c51
3. https://docs.google.com/a/southoftheclouds.net/spreadsheets/d/1MI-ic0Os25hgGUImW54sUIjZY_pUNQNa_W8Se5pRGBs

EDIT: with new parameters at this moment the marginal production cost estimate is 0.011 btc/xmr (2014-06-23 01:00 GMT)

According to Wolf, his miner gets at least 1.2kH/s on an Amazon EC2 instance (didn't say which one but lets assume its EC2 c3.8xlarge)

"I ran a test, LucasJones' repo against mine. Each had the exact same CFLAGS (-Ofast -flto -fuse-linker-plugin -funroll-loops -fsplit-ivs-in-unroller -fvariable-expansion-in-unroller -falign-loops=16 -falign-functions=16 -falign-jumps=16 -falign-labels=16). Each were run with 21 threads for a period of time over 20min. I can't be more accurate than that, because I didn't sit and time it. They were run at seperate times on the same machine - a 32 core Amazon EC2 instance with 58GB of RAM. The results? Lucas' cpuminer reported 627.58H/s - but only pulled 600 at the pool. My miner reported 1021.73 and pulled an impressive 1.25KH/s at the pool. Now, even with vardiff causing high share difficulties and luck contributing to inaccuracy, this shows a clear 100% increase. I have screenshots to prove it, but before I post them, I have to warn - I was too lazy to crop out my wallpapers, so they are NSFW."

thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=632724

[dnaleor]

based on the calculations, I even BOUGHT some monero around 7 mBTC (and I already hold around 1000 ).
Will sell them for a quick win when we are in a new hype phase. Will try to double the money

[aminorex]

Using wolf's hash rate and current parameters, I get marginal cost of 0.00653, which corresponds more closely to current market clearing at 0.007