rpietila Altcoin Observer

[HardwarePal]

coin is rising rapidly now.  i'm hoping it will stabilize around the marginal mining cost (about 0052) for a while, wait for hash rate to come up with it for a while.

One of the reasons I think is BCN's fuckup https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=512747.msg7566944#msg7566944

They copy pasted some code from XMR and people lost coins due to them not implementing it properly so theres more confidence in the Monero Dev's.

Hashrate should smoothly go up as BCN miners move to XMR

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[darkota]

One of the reasons I think is BCN's fuckup https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=512747.msg7566944#msg7566944

They copy pasted some code from XMR and people lost coins due to them not implementing it properly so theres more confidence in the Monero Dev's.

Hashrate should smoothly go up as BCN miners move to XMR

Any confidence I ever had in Bytecoin is now negative, 0, zip, nada.

[aminorex]

One of the reasons I think is BCN's fuckup https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=512747.msg7566944#msg7566944

They copy pasted some code from XMR and people lost coins due to them not implementing it properly so theres more confidence in the Monero Dev's.

Hashrate should smoothly go up as BCN miners move to XMR

Any confidence I ever had in Bytecoin is now negative, 0, zip, nada.

do not forget the clearly forged blockchain: https://minergate.com/blockchain/bcn/block/1

While it is certainly inconsistent, I'm not sure why you say clearly forged.  Bugs could be responsible for the inconsistency.
I suspect you are right, but I want to make sure I don't relay any erroneous reports, so a rationale is appreciated.

[drawingthesun]

I hit my limit for the week with a buy at 0035.  Next week I may want more.

i was surprised to see my 0035 order filled overnight, feeling good waking up with 1000 more XMR

We are both lucky, it seems.  Well, I was watching it like a hawk, so you're luckier.

This is my problem with XMR. I always feel like i NEED to watch the price like a Hawk in order to protect my investment because inflation is so high. I feel I HAVE TO use the volatility of the price in order to increase my stack so XMR can be a good store of value.

I dont need to do this with bitcoin. I dont care about the short term price because it's such a good store of value.

I must be too heavily invested in XMR and this decrease my productivity.

A couple of hopefully helpful points.

1- consider your current amount of Monero vs the amount of Monero in circulation in 2 years instead of today. This way you're not constantly fighting to maintain your percentage of the overall pie. If you see your stash as being over inflated today as opposed to being inflated away by mined coins you'll sleep better.

2- make sure all the money in crypto and especially Monero is gambling money. It helps.

[drawingthesun]

Change the thread name to:
"rpietila Monero ad board + occasional trolling of other coins"

Feel free to introduce another alternative coin into the discussion. If you look hard there aren't many that hold any weight.

I am interested in Ethereum too.

What about storj ?

I haven't read into storj that much. I know that Ethereum may launch with a distributed file storage system as their killer app. However I'm up for getting behind the first coin to do this and do it well. (Of course the release of the coin has to be fair too, otherwise it's clone time.)

[phosphorush]

Since this is the Monero thread I need some of you to talk some sense in to me. After seeing Vericoin I can't come up with a good reason to hold XMR when VRC is looking better in every aspect I can think of. Surely I'm missing something here and I'd like to be set straight if possible.

Does Monero have a GUI wallet yet btw? If not, timeline?

you must be joking right, vericoin is just the pump and dump of the moment, it offers nothing at long term, people going to vericoin now are like a moth to flame.

Since this is the Monero thread I need some of you to talk some sense in to me. After seeing Vericoin I can't come up with a good reason to hold XMR when VRC is looking better in every aspect I can think of. Surely I'm missing something here and I'd like to be set straight if possible.

Does Monero have a GUI wallet yet btw? If not, timeline?

you must be joking right, vericoin is just the pump and dump of the moment, it offers nothing at long term, people going to vericoin now are like a moth to flame.

Ok so Vericoin isn't anon then? It's not implemented in the coin? It's just a concept?

If Vericoin offers nothing long term, what does Monero offer long term? I like Monero I just want to make sure I'm on the right page here and find out what is true and what is not.

Anon is not implemented in vericoin. It is "supposed" to use a coinjoin based anon feature, which is hardly anonymous as shown by the unraveling of sharecoin's(blockchain) coinjoin..and as said by gmaxwell, the maker of coinjoin. Coinjoin may be the worst "anonymous" feature you can have in a coin as you will always need two or more people to "mix" transactions, and even then it's fairly easy to find out the sender and reciever.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=602041.0 <-----Vericoin's "anon feature" is not incorporated in its coin at this time. It's "anon feature" is also based off of Darkcoin's masternode/Darksend system as you can see. You should note that Darkcoin's masternode/darksend is closed source, and there has been many coins running to make a anonymous feature similar to Darkcoin's, such as Supercoins with it's Supernodes, XC with it's Xnodes, Vericoin with it's Veribit's and more.

Out of all the coins that use coinjoin for "anonymous" sending, Darkcoin's is the only one that has a decentralized and trustless system, XC's anonymous sending is trusted and you must rely on the fact that the Xnodes wont steal your coins, though they could. Supercoin's Supernodes are trusted as well and not even available atm(it's all just talk), and Vericoin's Veribit's are also trusted and not available atm(it's just all talk)

I really really suggest you do research Este Nuno, as you seem a bit clueless atm to be honest. 99% of those "anonymous" coins using coinjoin based Darkcoin anonymity are just pretending to do so so the dev's can make a quick buck, look at Libertycoin and HonorCoin for example, the devs ran off with a ton of Bitcoin after dumping it all on the exchange while they pretended to be making anonymous features for the coin,and worse. Vericoin, Supercoin, Pinkcoin, Orangecoin, Cloakcoin, Veilcoin, etc are all essentially copying/pretending to copy Darkcoin's masternodes/darksend in an attempt to make a quick buck off dull-witted buyers.

XC is anon and will be trustless soon (now it's dynamic trust): http://xc-official.com/XCPlatform/XC-Short-Term-Roadmap.pdf

[vleroybrown]

Commented for posterity.. I will not be buzzed tomorrow!

[cmason22]

the volume seems very thin on the exchanges (BTER for example).  i'm interested in buying a few BTC worth, but not sure how i do so with such low volume.   yes XMR is trading at .004 as of this writing, but there's only about 1BTC of buy orders between .004 and .003.

[darkota]

the volume seems very thin on the exchanges (BTER for example).  i'm interested in buying a few BTC worth, but not sure how i do so with such low volume.   yes XMR is trading at .004 as of this writing, but there's only about 1BTC of buy orders between .004 and .003.

Poloniex has the most volume atm, with around 200-300 btc per day for XMR(monero)

[cmason22]

thanks.

and if anyone is interested in direct trading about 5 BTC of XMR let me know via PM.  i'd be looking to do significantly better than market.

[drawingthesun]

the volume seems very thin on the exchanges (BTER for example).  i'm interested in buying a few BTC worth, but not sure how i do so with such low volume.   yes XMR is trading at .004 as of this writing, but there's only about 1BTC of buy orders between .004 and .003.

https://poloniex.com/exchange/btc_xmr

Volume ranges from 150 btc per day to 1000 btc per day for Monero alone.

Unless you want to buy 50 btc worth I'd suggest poloniex as the most suitable market. Over a 24 hour period you'll easily get <50 bitcoin worth at market rates without moving the market too much. However for amounts larger than 50 btc you might want to check out irc freenode #monero-otc for potential sellers/buyers.

[aabtc]

I hit my limit for the week with a buy at 0035.  Next week I may want more.

i was surprised to see my 0035 order filled overnight, feeling good waking up with 1000 more XMR

We are both lucky, it seems.  Well, I was watching it like a hawk, so you're luckier.

I had a bid at 38 and at 35 overnight,, they both hit (bittrex), i guess you guys are both luckier

[bangersdad]

Well i thought we were going to leave the .004 zone last night - but there still seems to be alot of sellers wanting to dump there xmr at these prices.

Rpietila, i hope you had a fantastic conference this weekend? and i hope you have been getting some more monero whales on board 

[Globb0]

lots of very interesting reading here.

Now I'm subscribed, I will try to learn something.

ty

[darlidada]

Difficulty is now over 800M. It went past the previous ATH.

Using Aminorex formula, I get a marginal mining price on AWS instance with Wolf miner of 5,39 mbtc

Side note: I've been tweeting about XMR since May and I've just been followed by Erik Voorhees. He's also following the Monero official feed. I guess he has just found out about XMR! One more btc whale backing us up!

Edit: just discovered this bitcoin wisdom-like site through poloniex trollbox: http://altcoingraphs.com/poloniex/graphs/price/781392

[darlidada]

From a business perspective, an argument could be made for Poloniex to give up on LTC pairing in favour of XMR in order to maximize their revenue and ensure that they stay the leading XMR exchange.

XMR will be for poloniex what LTC has been for BTC-E in the last 2-3 years.

[HardwarePal]

With a base rate of 0.00400BTC ($2.382) per 1 XMR and not calculating addition power consumption from other components , internet connection or hardware ROI

R9-280x Hynix = 450h/s  

XMR/Day = 0.60 at 800K diff

TDP = 250w

Power Consumption of GPU =  $0.025 x 24hr (at base rate of $0.10/KWH)

TDP = 250w


0.00228000-0.00002280 (1% poolfee)-0.00011400 (5% Claymore miner fee) - 0.00020300 ($0.12 power cost) = 0.001940200 ($1.13 at current BTC rates)

XMR miners are currently 1:1 with cpus a 125w TDP CPU produces roughly 150-225h/s with some exceptions like the AMD-FX 8350 and EC2 instances (very expensive though)

One Hynix based R9-280x is around $280-$350 + risers extra components + open air case ETC

You can do the math on other GPU's and CPU's from the Google doc if you dont own the hardware with the h/s and respective components and add all the addition costs.

Anyone selling now is either getting free electricity and/or free hardware or is delusional that they are earning money.

My math might be flawed so please contribute to the discussion if I am wrong  

[aminorex]

I think free hardware will account for a significant amount of emission.  Essentially, scrypt mining went ASIC so GPU miners who have fully amortized have free, otherwise idle, hardware. If they are domiciled in Kuwait or Norway they have free power too.  However, they won' t add hash nearly as quickly as cloud miners, so that when network rates increase rapidly, these cheap coins will be a decreasing fraction, and the marginal production cost will constitute a floor.  If demand is sufficient to sink all the cheap coins, the price tends to rise easily to the marginal production cost.  Rises past that depend on positive pressure from excess demand, and will tend to drop to the marginal supply cost easily.

Increasing demand is good for everyone.  Miners, holders, and buyers all benefit.  When the GUI wallet arrives, the level of accessibility will be comparable to BTC, and the available sources of demand will be much more adequate to sink the supply.  Mining will become profitable for marginal miners, and difficulty will rise, creating positive feedback on price.  Marginal miners will scale up easily, but low-cost miners will not, so the price floor created by marginal supply will get harder.

Meanwhile, I am happy to accumulate cheap coins at the best prices I am likely to see, ever.

Observation: At current rates, the 290x pays for itself in a year of operation, give or take, with 10 cent kwh.  Startup GPU mining is probably sustainable at 0045, barely.  whatmine.com lists XMR as the highest return cryptonight coin, and indicates a better return than any scrypt coin.  Expect, therefore, hashrate to climb about 2x on GPU mining, which will take the marginal cloud miner cost to .01, and the startup GPU mining level (1 year payback) to .009.

[dreamspark]

[snip]

I definitely think free hardware or already ROI'd hardware account for a largish percentage of the network. But Im fairly confident, from what I know, that the large majority of the network is made up of ec2 miners. Most having already mined and sold enough on the spikes to mine at a loss at least temporarily.

From my calculations the current production cost on ec2 at a difficulty of 759066027 is 0.008 BTC per XMR which puts us well below production cost. I dont think i've ever seen clearer buy signals particularly as the net hash is rising again after a small dip.

[aminorex]

from my calculations the current production cost on ec2 at a difficulty of 759066027 is 0.008 BTC per XMR which puts us well below production cost.

what kind of instances are you using?