Another Bitcoin Analyst

[Arghhh]

YipYip is correct.

DanV, Mr. Institutional Investor Doofus with his ABC rules can't get his head out of his ass fast enough to see the rocket taking off.

DanV: Former Qualified Financial Adviser. Part-Time Forex, Equities & Option Trader and Mentor.



https://www.tradingview.com/u/DanV/

"This pattern could have a final leg down, which would very likely induce overwhelming emotions of despair as it sinks to the ~$200 level.

Again, the $200 zone is AB=CD measured move target and another Fib confluence. As you all know, I am relatively cautious and, hence, $200 would be good enough for me. However, EW guidelines suggest that upon completion of a bullish cycle, the retracement takes us back to the vicinity of wave 4 (at one cycle degree lower). That, in fact, is in the area of $120!

Now, I know this might be very annoying and incomprehensible to Bulls, and others who follow "Fundamentals" very keenly. I cannot say right now which of these targets will be achieved, but it is sufficient to note that, irrespective of if we reverse at $600 (or even $800), we are in a bearish cycle, and a move of the low does not support a new Bullish cycle." -DanV

Another institutional analyst falls victim to the bitcoin badger.
Anyone who listened to DanV, got burnt. Badly.

[rudius]

Your methodology is stupid.

I agree.

I don t even see why you want to corrolate equities with bitcoin.

Just to comment on this because I see this attitude often -- just because someone finds a correlation doesn't mean they wanted to. I see the same attitude towards bears on this forum, like all of them just want the market to go down.

I understand. You may try to corrolate equities with moon cycle, but why does somebody want to do that?

and for the correlation, obviously there is none. 90% of the time BTC is in a down trend and 90% of the time Equities are on a uptrend.
That s not the first time i read that they corrolate. People love to see what they WANT to see. I guess that is my point.

[damnek]

So... today we have the Nasdaq smashing to new highs and bitcoin getting a dip, where's the correlation now?

[segeln]

Not to mention, that Bitcoin-QQQ correlation speaks for itself, no?

correlation is not causation
you need more proofs

[thefiniteidea]

So... today we have the Nasdaq smashing to new highs and bitcoin getting a dip, where's the correlation now?

I certainly can't say that their intraday movements are exactly the same, but the broader correlation does suggest that ultimately they will follow the same trend. Though, I think it's interesting that certain times exist when their intraday movements are damn near exact.

That being said, the short term analysis suggests that bitcoin is hitting a strong resistance level at the 200 day moving average, which could be limiting its upward momentum:



According to the SP 500, I think we could have a few more months of positive movement in both markets before the big correction occurs, or at least a sideways direction. Thus, the SP 500, NASDAQ, and even Bitcoin could move up a bit more from here. Though, the start of the serious correction is near, so I can't feel confident saying Bitcoin will make new all-time-high's this year.



Again, this is based off a 5-year upward trend converging within the next few months.

Bitcoin is practically the same age as this bull market.

We don't know for a fact what will happen to Bitcoin when the market's undergo a serious correction, but based off the market activity for both Bitcoin and equities in July-Decemeber 2011... the correlation indicates a longer negative trend than we're used to.

[damnek]

According to the SP 500, I think we could have a few more months of positive movement in both markets before the big correction occurs, or at least a sideways direction. Thus, the SP 500, NASDAQ, and even Bitcoin could move up a bit more from here. Though, the start of the serious correction is near, so I can't feel confident saying Bitcoin will make new all-time-high's this year.

That's already a lot more nuanced, thank you.

[thefiniteidea]

According to the SP 500, I think we could have a few more months of positive movement in both markets before the big correction occurs, or at least a sideways direction. Thus, the SP 500, NASDAQ, and even Bitcoin could move up a bit more from here. Though, the start of the serious correction is near, so I can't feel confident saying Bitcoin will make new all-time-high's this year.

That's already a lot more nuanced, thank you.

Thank you for your interest!

[samurai1200]

My thought since the Willy analysis came out is how could any TA be appropriate or applicable after a huge, price-influencing chunk of trading was found to essentially be fraudulent? TA is based on human trading tendencies and risk appetites, so when $100M+ gets pumped into the market without risk, doesnt that sort of break the foundation that TA is supposed to rely on?

[inca]

My thought since the Willy analysis came out is how could any TA be appropriate or applicable after a huge, price-influencing chunk of trading was found to essentially be fraudulent? TA is based on human trading tendencies and risk appetites, so when $100M+ gets pumped into the market without risk, doesnt that sort of break the foundation that TA is supposed to rely on?

7% of one exchange which at the time only accounted for 15% of market share.

Meh.

[samurai1200]

My thought since the Willy analysis came out is how could any TA be appropriate or applicable after a huge, price-influencing chunk of trading was found to essentially be fraudulent? TA is based on human trading tendencies and risk appetites, so when $100M+ gets pumped into the market without risk, doesnt that sort of break the foundation that TA is supposed to rely on?

7% of one exchange which at the time only accounted for 15% of market share.

Meh.

I dont think market share is the pertinent fact, though. I think its that for a majority of the bubble period(s), mtgox was the price reference and trend setter. I believe the willy report looks into that a bit.

[Gimmelfarb]

My thought since the Willy analysis came out is how could any TA be appropriate or applicable after a huge, price-influencing chunk of trading was found to essentially be fraudulent? TA is based on human trading tendencies and risk appetites, so when $100M+ gets pumped into the market without risk, doesnt that sort of break the foundation that TA is supposed to rely on?

as blitz once put it, and i am paraphrasing, price follows price. even if there was un-backed ("fraudulent") price action, the market continued to react and progress accordingly. many months or years later, i don't think there is any going back. but it is a very interesting conundrum.

[Gimmelfarb]

So you just like dimissing the low lying fruit arguments and not actually DISCUSS anything

Another bear... get a cheap hotel room  and yourself igorr & matthebearcat,Danv,Terra and others can wank each over off while moaning the words "BITCOIN IS DOOMED"

LOL, DanV isn't even a poster on this forum and was calling for a big rally after the next low. Sounds like you don't read people's charts and arguments too thoroughly before you go on a tirade against them for being bearish on the market.

Actually incorrect dufus he was calling for sub 300 pricing as of 1 week ago

Or to explain clearly he was very bearish until proven wrong ...

EDIT : Thanks Arggh...Even as of 2 days ago still spewing the Bitcoin is doomed Crap that the bears LOVE so much...YAWN

just to be clear, because i watch his charts. he was calling for "a big rally after the next low" to ~1000 after a low ~300. yeah we didn't get the low in. but you guys are totally miscategorizing.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/fYhqvd8H/

[RandomPedestrianN9]

If we all hold hands and believe in DA MOON, the price will act accordingly. Execute all naysayers.

[MatTheCat]

If we all hold hands and believe in DA MOON, the price will act accordingly. Execute all naysayers.

When I first came to this forum, I used to get all involved with the copious hoards of retards that hang around here also.

But then I learned, that even paying any attention to anything that the majority here have to say, let alone getting embroiled in big debates with the Bitcoin Nutter, cost me money. It mal-affected my mindset, resulting in me suffering from a polarisation of opinion/outlook that would never have affected me had I not got myself involved with the Bitcoin Nutter.

These days, I make copious use of the ignore button in order to spare myself the worst of dribbling retards on this site.

Many also have me on ignore. They say that I am a troll and recommend that one doesn't feed the Troll!

I say, "DON'T FEED THE BITCOIN NUTTER!" All he wants is Kool-Aid and if you offer him anything else at all, he will attack you.

[RandomPedestrianN9]

Gimmelfarb and MatTheCat are two fellas so cool i dont even wanna troll em for im too busy with everyone elses mother.

[Ohh Pewee]

If we all hold hands and believe in DA MOON, the price will act accordingly. Execute all naysayers.

When I first came to this forum, I used to get all involved with the copious hoards of retards that hang around here also.

But then I learned, that even paying any attention to anything that the majority here have to say, let alone getting embroiled in big debates with the Bitcoin Nutter, cost me money. It mal-affected my mindset, resulting in me suffering from a polarisation of opinion/outlook that would never have affected me had I not got myself involved with the Bitcoin Nutter.

These days, I make copious use of the ignore button in order to spare myself the worst of dribbling retards on this site.

Many also have me on ignore. They say that I am a troll and recommend that one doesn't feed the Troll!

I say, "DON'T FEED THE BITCOIN NUTTER!" All he wants is Kool-Aid and if you offer him anything else at all, he will attack you.

So it must really infuriate you that the average "bitcoin nutter" has made more in % from hodling over the last week than you made from your narcissistic TA?  Your problem is not that you don't have any TA skills, your problem is that you think you could never be wrong.

Big words and long drawn out eloquent paragraphs don't always mean a better argument just btw.

[MatTheCat]

So it must really infuriate you that the average "bitcoin nutter" has made more in % from hodling over the last week than you made from your narcissistic TA?  Your problem is not that you don't have any TA skills, your problem is that you think you could never be wrong.

Big words and long drawn out eloquent paragraphs don't always mean a better argument just btw.

LOL

Sure they have.

JimboToronto, cost Average ~ $900
Ibian,            cost Average ~ $800
segeln,          cost Average ~ $750

When Bitcoin is going up, the average Bitcoin Nutter will always outperform me by a country phucking mile, as the Bitcoin Nutter will be holding from the very onset of the break-out right to the very top of the market. It is when the price action goes into reverse that the Bitcoin Nutter tends not to do so well!

[bitcoinsrus]

So it must really infuriate you that the average "bitcoin nutter" has made more in % from hodling over the last week than you made from your narcissistic TA?  Your problem is not that you don't have any TA skills, your problem is that you think you could never be wrong.

Big words and long drawn out eloquent paragraphs don't always mean a better argument just btw.

LOL

Sure they have.

JimboToronto, cost Average ~ $900
Ibian,            cost Average ~ $800
segeln,          cost Average ~ $750

When Bitcoin is going up, the average Bitcoin Nutter will always outperform me by a country phucking mile, as the Bitcoin Nutter will be holding from the very onset of the break-out right to the very top of the market. It is when the price action goes into reverse that the Bitcoin Nutter tends not to do so well!

you forgot one more
veronica, cost average $984
 

[RandomPedestrianN9]

So it must really infuriate you that the average "bitcoin nutter" has made more in % from hodling over the last week than you made from your narcissistic TA?  Your problem is not that you don't have any TA skills, your problem is that you think you could never be wrong.

Big words and long drawn out eloquent paragraphs don't always mean a better argument just btw.

LOL

Sure they have.

JimboToronto, cost Average ~ $900
Ibian,            cost Average ~ $800
segeln,          cost Average ~ $750

When Bitcoin is going up, the average Bitcoin Nutter will always outperform me by a country phucking mile, as the Bitcoin Nutter will be holding from the very onset of the break-out right to the very top of the market. It is when the price action goes into reverse that the Bitcoin Nutter tends not to do so well!

you forgot one more
veronica, cost average $984
 

add RadovanH. who claimed to have bought @900 few months back on another website

[romneymoney]

LOL

Sure they have.

JimboToronto, cost Average ~ $900
Ibian,            cost Average ~ $800
segeln,          cost Average ~ $750

When Bitcoin is going up, the average Bitcoin Nutter will always outperform me by a country phucking mile, as the Bitcoin Nutter will be holding from the very onset of the break-out right to the very top of the market. It is when the price action goes into reverse that the Bitcoin Nutter tends not to do so well!

Is there a certain price point where you would give up on trashing people for having a different investment strategy than you?
4k? 
I guess your rant a few days ago about if others are ever correct, it means it was pure luck means no.