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tomcollins
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May 15, 2011, 01:39:39 AM |
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So yeah, it's not going to be exact, and have a huge margin of error. But to invest serious money into something, putting in *some* effort is better than hoping and praying. Agreed. Okay, so you have a range of outcome scenarios and estimated a likelihood (probablity) of each of those occurring (with a pessimistic/conservative bias). Sounds like a good starting point and a worthwhile exercise. What about you put up the range of values of probabilities and we'll have something to discuss ... (yes I'm bored) ... to your benefit we may collectively come up with a better estimate on the likelihood probabilities than you on your own .... ... we'll can call it the "pizza guy analysis", after the guy who delivered 2 pizzas for 10,000 BTC (maybe he did a similar thought process). It might be better to post estimates independently first just to make sure we don't bias each other. I definitely consider my estimates to be a wild-ass guess. However, it was pretty remarkable that my numbers came out to be almost exactly the mtgox price at the time, it was quite scary. |
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Legion
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Activity: 30
Merit: 0
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May 20, 2011, 08:10:46 AM |
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As an early investor who came across 300 BTC today, and then found a backup of his 46,850 BTC wallet, the prospect of a $20 exchange rate pleases me.
I'd like a million dollars, please.
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Jaime Frontero
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May 20, 2011, 08:24:03 AM |
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As an early investor who came across 300 BTC today, and then found a backup of his 46,850 BTC wallet, the prospect of a $20 exchange rate pleases me.
I'd like a million dollars, please.
holy crap. way to totally trample on motivation, dude. forgive me if i just ignore you forever...  |
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The-miner
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May 20, 2011, 09:04:14 AM |
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i think it definately could reach $20, its weather or not the us govt fucks it up or not by then.
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DERP
Newbie
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Activity: 14
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May 20, 2011, 10:03:21 AM |
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As an early investor who came across 300 BTC today, and then found a backup of his 46,850 BTC wallet, the prospect of a $20 exchange rate pleases me.
I'd like a million dollars, please.
Lets see a pic of your wallet? Are you seriously going to try to cash out? How long do you expect it to take you to liquidate a million dollars of BTC? |
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bitk
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May 20, 2011, 11:34:36 AM |
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I've started thinking bitcoins have nothing to do with gold. They are more like diamonds, with people having stashes filled with them but not releasing them too quickly or the price will drop really quickly  One thing is for sure, if old bitcoiners want to fix a maximum price, (eg 10 €) they can sell those at that price for quite a long time... |
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BitcoinsWallet
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May 20, 2011, 11:38:09 AM |
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NO doubt, maybe more....
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wb3
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^Check Out^ Isle 3
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May 20, 2011, 02:12:25 PM
Last edit: May 20, 2011, 02:35:26 PM by wb3 |
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The problem with setting expectations or goals to high is when you fail to achieve them depression sets into the market. The enthusiasm should be commended but tempered by realistic goals. Don't hype the market, temper it.
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Net Worth = 0.10 Hah, "Net" worth  |
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BitcoinsWallet
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May 20, 2011, 02:16:17 PM |
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The problem with setting expectations or goals to high is when you fail to achieve them depression sets into the market. The enthusiasm should be commended but tempered buy realistic goals. Don't hype the market, temper it.
+1 |
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tomcollins
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May 20, 2011, 02:26:13 PM |
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I've started thinking bitcoins have nothing to do with gold. They are more like diamonds, with people having stashes filled with them but not releasing them too quickly or the price will drop really quickly One thing is for sure, if old bitcoiners want to fix a maximum price, (eg 10 €) they can sell those at that price for quite a long time... This is a pretty good analogy. Except diamonds are easier to control since they were in the hands of even fewer people. I'm beginning to think that the rally was caused by a very small number of somewhat large investors who were trying to get in. The market was able to absorb some of that through people selling, but that push has somewhat disappeared (at least for now). The selling pressure is still there, so that's making the price go down just a bit. Since the market has so few actually for sale, it takes so little to make it move up, but once that dries up, the slide back down happens. |
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Basiley
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May 21, 2011, 11:31:33 AM |
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when miners impact on BTC flow was reduced[which is happen in 2-3 months, regardless mining scale, IMO], its happen.
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Alex Beckenham (OP)
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June 07, 2011, 10:57:05 PM |
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Price reached $20 on Mt Gox today. Now let's all go back and read everyone's craaaaaaazy predictions |
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Ian Maxwell
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June 07, 2011, 11:09:42 PM |
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Heh.... I checked Mt Gox a few minutes ago, price was still barely above $19, and my Dwolla deposit still hadn't arrived.
I check now, my Dwolla deposit is in, and the price has just risen again.
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Alex Beckenham (OP)
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June 07, 2011, 11:12:24 PM |
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As far as the timing goes, it looks like this post is the winner: I predict $20 by the end of May.
And this gets 2nd place: $20 sometime in july, at the latest.
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theymos
Administrator
Legendary
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June 07, 2011, 11:12:35 PM |
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You guys are nuts! BTC hasn't even quite reached $2. I predict a drop to $1 or less.
Anyone want to bet me that it won't go above $20?
Sure glad I didn't make that bet with anyone! |
1NXYoJ5xU91Jp83XfVMHwwTUyZFK64BoAD
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KnuttyD
Member
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Activity: 109
Merit: 11
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June 07, 2011, 11:15:43 PM |
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Holy tap dancing jesus we just touched 22  |
If I helped you in some way, and you feel obligated to do so, you can tip me some coin!
1KVadqbELY3KuJhkm9rDtcwxZknhRsfPHY
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Jack of Diamonds
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June 07, 2011, 11:41:45 PM |
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Holy tap dancing jesus we just touched 22 Yeah, I noticed that. I was by pure coincidence depositing BTC on Mt.Gox just an hour ago. While waiting for it to confirm & show up on their end price went up 4 bucks. Not overly ecstatic as it was to be expected with the difficulty increase, but still ok. |
1f3gHNoBodYw1LLs3ndY0UanYB1tC0lnsBec4USeYoU9AREaCH34PBeGgAR67fx
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deadlizard
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June 07, 2011, 11:43:25 PM |
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Holy tap dancing jesus we just touched 22 you mean 24 |
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MoonShadow
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Activity: 1708
Merit: 1007
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June 07, 2011, 11:44:05 PM |
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Holy tap dancing jesus we just touched 22 you mean 24 My prediction didn't survive 20 minutes. |
"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."
- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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enmaku
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June 07, 2011, 11:48:04 PM |
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What time did the difficulty go up? Anyone have an idea of what kind of time delay there was between the two?
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Poll
