ANN: BITMAIN has Tested Its 28nm Bitcoin Mining Chip BM1382

[mdude77]

It started at around 25% from memory and climbed to 30% then back to 25% again. The point is though, if Bitmain are looking at high ROI, its going to take some guess work to figure out whether the last leap is going to be a repeat pattern in the next few months.

It's *always* guess work.

M

[Gogreen]

My guess is 1.4 to 1.5 btc 

[Bitkoinzz]

My guess is 1.4 to 1.5 btc 

  Exactly, bet

[Collider]

My guess is 1.4 to 1.5 btc  

 Exactly, bet

Fair price would be 1.1 Btc, as you have to purchase a PSU.

However, i think it will be something like 1.2

The longer they wait, the cheaper it will have to be

[s1gs3gv]

It started at around 25% from memory and climbed to 30% then back to 25% again. The point is though, if Bitmain are looking at high ROI, its going to take some guess work to figure out whether the last leap is going to be a repeat pattern in the next few months.

It's *always* guess work.

M

Not to late to take an educated guess.

At 20%, $.15 kwh a 500mhs S3 would mine less than .64 BTC before operating at a loss (after 129 days).

There is NO WAY anyone in their right mind would price these at 1 BTC or pay more than .64 BTC for one.

Bitmain's best option is to mine with them themselves.

[mdude77]

It started at around 25% from memory and climbed to 30% then back to 25% again. The point is though, if Bitmain are looking at high ROI, its going to take some guess work to figure out whether the last leap is going to be a repeat pattern in the next few months.

It's *always* guess work.

M

Not to late to take an educated guess.

At 20%, $.15 kwh a 500mhs S3 would mine less than .64 BTC before operating at a loss (after 129 days).

There is NO WAY anyone in their right mind would price these at 1 BTC or pay more than .64 BTC for one.

Bitmain's best option is to mine with them themselves.

I agree.  I'd say 0.6 BTC is the sweet spot.  1 BTC is crazy.  0.5 BTC and they'll sell like hotcakes.

M

[s1gs3gv]

It started at around 25% from memory and climbed to 30% then back to 25% again. The point is though, if Bitmain are looking at high ROI, its going to take some guess work to figure out whether the last leap is going to be a repeat pattern in the next few months.

It's *always* guess work.

M

Not to late to take an educated guess.

At 20%, $.15 kwh a 500mhs S3 would mine less than .64 BTC before operating at a loss (after 129 days).

There is NO WAY anyone in their right mind would price these at 1 BTC or pay more than .64 BTC for one.

Bitmain's best option is to mine with them themselves.

I agree.  I'd say 0.6 BTC is the sweet spot.  1 BTC is crazy.  0.5 BTC and they'll sell like hotcakes.

M

Agreed, but even then who wants to spend .5 BTC hoping they'll make .1 BTC in 4-5 months ? Sure, its 20% but it might be 0% too if things go ballistic. I can do better in a 4 hour game of Texas Hold'em.

[FiVoPat]

dosn´t matter,
they have mined already 330BTC with own pool.

[allcoinminer]

QUOTED FROM THE HISTORY

Price

2.2BTC/Unit, Shipping included.

We don't believe difficulty will jump like rocket as before. When GPU is introduced, the edge compared with CPU is hundreds of times. When FPGA is introduced, as the miners are hard to decide between high CPEX(capital expenditure) vs. electricity expenses, so the difficulty is in stagnation, as FPGA is no clear advantage compared with GPU. The first generation of ASIC mining rigs has nearly 50x~100x of better efficiency than FPGA/GPU miners in both CPEX and electricity expenses, so the difficulty growth is quite fast, but less than GPU introducing time. In the future, different generation of ASIC chips only has 5x~10x of efficiency difference. So we don't believe the exponential growth assumption that the difficulty will increase like crazy. If we use exponential formulas to forecast the difficulty, we think we should conservatively assume it, which should not be higher than the average number in the recent difficulty adjustment cycles.

The first batch of Antminer buyer is going to ROI in a day when I write this post

When Bitmain first introduce the miners on the market, we sell on 2013/11/23 a 180GH/s ANTMINER at 4.75 BTC. some people fear the increasing of difficulty, while some other community members bought it.

What if these miners started to mine on 2013/11/25, how many coins has the S1 mined, assuming not overclocked, 0.10$/KWH, 836USD/BTC? The number is 4.697BTC, electricity bill deducted. The miner who bought S1 on 2013/11/23 @4.75BTC per unit needs only another day to enjoy the ROI when we write this post,  without overclocking.

Now according to our model, which has been proved accurate or conservative in the past, we believe the 2.2BTC is profitable price for the miners, and a fair price to distribute the future mining revenue between the Bitmain and the mining community.

Will Chinese New Year influence the work of UPS/DHL in China?
It will still be one week before CNY when we end the shipping. The CNY is under the control of our risk management. However, the CNY will influence the production in China and Taiwan, where lots of ASIC chips packaged, miners produced and PSU produced.

Attachment: Difficulty History




source: http://blockexplorer.com/q/nethash/2016
Reminder: Bitmain is not responsible for any financial advise.

[iglasses]

I think as long as you see S2's for sale on their web site you will not see the S3.

Ship date if you order an S2 today is July 1 so unless they sell out before that (No one knows how many they have left Obv) we could be looking at not seeing any S3's in hand until after the July 4th holiday.

JMHO

[philipma1957]

dosn´t matter,
they have mined already 330BTC with own pool.

so if it costs them .5 million usd to design new chip and new pcb.  

then  they built 10,000 of them to get that 4.6ph pool. the 10000 built = 125 usd each or 1.25 mill


that means they are on the hook for 1.75 mill for the first 10,000 units  .  I would think I am under with that not over.

say they earned   330 btc = 200,000  usd.   Spent some power    

   That means 1.55 mill for 10,000 units   or   the absolute lowest is 155 usd   say 45 to ship =  

  200 usd  and they break even


 my guess is more like 300 usd to break even.  

 So   sell  at 600 usd  (not 1 btc)   = 100% profit  and they crush Am's Rk-box .

  Is Any thing above  600 usd  pure greed on their part  ?  no  and why is that   ?

 They will   price higher to see how many of us feel Froggy enough to jump at it.  

Ie market testing at no cost  (since if we don't buy they mine at a profit).

This is a very interesting time for BTC……..  


Here is a number  game you can do with a calculator.  

pretend there are 126ph hashing   that would be 1000 1th machines for each ph   or 126,000  1th machines

convert to these .5th machine and you get  252,000  with no other hashing gear.  

 if they were 1 btc each  the price for the gear hashing would be   252,000 x 600 = 151,200,000  usd  

 they would burn 252,000 x 390 watts or 98,280,000  or 98,280 k watts

we all know  that the gear on the market is not all these alone and is  far more costly then the 151 mill above.

 we also know the gear right now is worse then .78 watts   much more like 1.5 watts on average

so 2x the power = 200,000 kwatts

  

[Biodom]

dosn´t matter,
they have mined already 330BTC with own pool.

my guess is more like 300 usd to break even.  

 So   sell  at 600 usd  (not 1 btc)   = 100% profit  and they crush Am's Rk-box .

  Is Any thing above  600 usd  pure greed on their part  ?  no  and why is that   ?

I agree with $600-they have to think about competition at this point. 100% profit is more than enough and if you can overwhelm the competition-even better.
I think that this is a sweet spot for pricing, which I prefer to be in $$, not BTC.

[Slesh]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculator

Diff incr - 20%
Price -  1 BTC
500 GHs
0.1 USD / kWh
pwr - 350w
 = ROI - Never

Diff incr - 20%
Price -  0,5 BTC
500 GHs
0.1 USD / kWh
pwr - 350w
after 172 days profit 0,5 BTC ...

 .. monkey business

....buy ... mine for about two months ...sell

[mdude77]

dosn´t matter,
they have mined already 330BTC with own pool.

my guess is more like 300 usd to break even.  

 So   sell  at 600 usd  (not 1 btc)   = 100% profit  and they crush Am's Rk-box .

  Is Any thing above  600 usd  pure greed on their part  ?  no  and why is that   ?

I agree with $600-they have to think about competition at this point. 100% profit is more than enough and if you can overwhelm the competition-even better.
I think that this is a sweet spot for pricing, which I prefer to be in $$, not BTC.

$600 is ~1 BTC.  Will never ROI.  

M

[Fireblade]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculator

Diff incr - 20%
Price -  1 BTC
500 GHs
0.1 USD / kWh
pwr - 350w
 = ROI - Never

Diff incr - 20%
Price -  0,5 BTC
500 GHs
0.1 USD / kWh
pwr - 350w
after 172 days profit 0,5 BTC ...

 .. monkey business

....buy ... mine for about two months ...sell

Probably there will be a lot of buyers that don't there math. Woow, the bitmain gear. It must be good, I need to have it.

[philipma1957]

dosn´t matter,
they have mined already 330BTC with own pool.

my guess is more like 300 usd to break even.  

 So   sell  at 600 usd  (not 1 btc)   = 100% profit  and they crush Am's Rk-box .

  Is Any thing above  600 usd  pure greed on their part  ?  no  and why is that   ?

I agree with $600-they have to think about competition at this point. 100% profit is more than enough and if you can overwhelm the competition-even better.
I think that this is a sweet spot for pricing, which I prefer to be in $$, not BTC.

$600 is ~1 BTC.  Will never ROI.  

M

not for me…  why?   I purchased 3 btc   from coinbase each at  560.  

 They were purchased with this gear in mind.  

So right now today bitmaintech has made 120 usd profit for me. Since the coins are worth 600 each.

 But enough for btc-usd mind games. LOL



 The new world of btc is very simple.  In house mining is dying and will die off without a big btc price rise.


 Okay  best gear now gets .8 watts  easy reliable the new s-3.  

Sp30's get .46 lets say .5 watts for easy math

[s1gs3gv]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculator

Diff incr - 20%
Price -  0,5 BTC
500 GHs
0.1 USD / kWh
pwr - 350w
after 172 days profit 0,5 BTC ...

 .. monkey business

....buy ... mine for about two months ...sell

No

20% / .5 BTC / 500 ghs / $0.1kwh / 350watts / starting now == .29 BTC profit after 167 days when it then goes into the red
using bitcoinwisdom.com calcualtor

The mine and sell strategy is really just 'A Greater Fool' strategy … seems common and accepted around here but its not ethical.

[s1gs3gv]

The new world of btc is very simple.  In house mining is dying and will die off without a big btc price rise.


 Okay  best gear now gets .8 watts  easy reliable the new s-3.  

Sp30's get .46 lets say .5 watts for easy math

If there is a big BTC price rise, it doesn't matter to those who purchased with BTC.

If there is a big BTC price rise, manufacturers will raise their prices. They are greedy.

The SP30 is a non-refundable pre-order which doesn't exist now.

And finally, fractional improvements in energy efficiency are a red herring. Sure, they extend the useful (profitable) life of equipment but remember near the end of life they are mining comparatively tiny amounts of bitcoin. You might argue that even tiny amounts of bitcoin *might* be worth a lot of fiat if BTC goes up huge, but if you just bought BTC instead of the miner you'd most likely be as well or better off.

[hellraven]

hmmmmm
still no info about S3... ah... still waiting...

[philipma1957]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculator

Diff incr - 20%
Price -  0,5 BTC
500 GHs
0.1 USD / kWh
pwr - 350w
after 172 days profit 0,5 BTC ...

 .. monkey business

....buy ... mine for about two months ...sell

No

20% / .5 BTC / 500 ghs / $0.1kwh / 350watts / starting now == .29 BTC profit after 167 days when it then goes into the red
using bitcoinwisdom.com calcualtor

The mine and sell strategy is really just 'A Greater Fool' strategy … seems common and accepted around here but its not ethical.

Wrong some of the time   as you are not thinking of why would someone want 1 s-3 on ebay the third of oct.  here are some reasons.

he/she has 'free' power not a lot but 400 watts a month they can do.

 That s-3 can run for OCT to MAY at zero cost and generate heat as a bonus.

I am going to push s-3's in OCT of 2014 to home owners with electric heat.  (Not Heat Pumps)  

That is correct I know of 5 developments in Central NJ  they use electric radiators for heat.

 Many many many homes in the usa do this.


Next reason ebucks  I have 157 usd in ebucks coming to me this july 3rd.  

next payout is oct 3rd.   I make many more sales on ebay the 4 days ebucks come in.

Apr 3rd
July 3rd
Oct 3rd
Jan 3rd

The buy and sell on ebay is valid and ethical.

Ebay has ebucks promos and coupons at times.

I got 15% and a 20 dollar coupon on a 200 dollar s-1 purchase.  my cost was  just under  150usd.  and I get a 45 day warrantee.
So that seller did me a favor.