Bitcoin Forum
December 13, 2017, 10:51:30 PM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.15.1  [Torrent].
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 »
  Print  
Author Topic: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well  (Read 61726 times)
tinof
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 171


View Profile
July 07, 2014, 03:57:19 AM
 #101

The total $ swaps stay around 29M$, while the bid sum is just below 4M$. Looks so healthy ... not.
But as long as the BTC swaps don't jump, this can continue for a while.
In order for this data to have any meaning, you would need to know just how leveraged traders that take out these swaps are, if they are only leveraged 1.001 to 1 then they could simply close a small portion of their holdings with little impact on the market if they cannot borrow at reasonable terms. 

Total swap of 29M alone shows many are quite bullish at bitcoin and willing to borrow at high rate to own bitcoin.
1513205490
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1513205490

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1513205490
Reply with quote  #2

1513205490
Report to moderator
1513205490
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1513205490

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1513205490
Reply with quote  #2

1513205490
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
DannyElfman
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 406



View Profile
July 07, 2014, 11:26:56 PM
 #102

The total $ swaps stay around 29M$, while the bid sum is just below 4M$. Looks so healthy ... not.
But as long as the BTC swaps don't jump, this can continue for a while.
In order for this data to have any meaning, you would need to know just how leveraged traders that take out these swaps are, if they are only leveraged 1.001 to 1 then they could simply close a small portion of their holdings with little impact on the market if they cannot borrow at reasonable terms. 

Total swap of 29M alone shows many are quite bullish at bitcoin and willing to borrow at high rate to own bitcoin.
You can see the overall tone of the market to be bullish, but you cannot see how leveraged borrowers are. If bullish borrowers are lightly leveraged but bearish borrowers are heavily leveraged then it would take less overall for the price to move higher as the bearish traders would have less "wiggle room" before they are forced to close their position.

This spot for rent.
wachtwoord
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1624


View Profile
July 08, 2014, 12:14:07 AM
 #103

more and more people are realizing 10% interest a month on bitfinex will almost certainly make more than long term btc holding.

At 10%/month (what I've been making at finex), btc would have to be 6000 in 2 years.

In Bitcoin there's no counter party risk though.

Anyway, how on Earth are these leveraged longs holding on for these periods of time while paying these sky-high interest rates? Especially considering interest rates for USD are at record lows in the real world ... It just makes zero chance. I would not be surprised if something shady is going on.

twiifm
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 574


Best IoT Platform Based on Blockchain


View Profile
July 08, 2014, 12:17:50 AM
 #104

more and more people are realizing 10% interest a month on bitfinex will almost certainly make more than long term btc holding.

At 10%/month (what I've been making at finex), btc would have to be 6000 in 2 years.

In Bitcoin there's no counter party risk though.

Anyway, how on Earth are these leveraged longs holding on for these periods of time while paying these sky-high interest rates? Especially considering interest rates for USD are at record lows in the real world ... It just makes zero chance. I would not be surprised if something shady is going on.

Because theyre gamblers and they believe the pump


     
     ██
    ███
  █ ███
 ██ ███
 ██ ███
 ██ ███
 ██ ███
 ██ ███
 ██ ███
 █  ██
   



         ▄▄▄██████████▄▄▄
      ▄████████████████████▄
    ▄████████████████████████▄
   █████▀▀▀▀▀▀███████▀▀▀▀▀▀████
  ██████      ███████      █████
 █████████▌   ███████   █████████
▐█████████▌   ███████   █████████▌
████████                   ███████
▐███████▄▄▄   ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄   ▄▄▄██████▌
 ██████████   ███████   █████████
  ██████▀▀▀   ███████   ▀▀▀█████
   █████      ███████      ████
    ▀████████████████████████▀
      ▀████████████████████▀
         ▀▀▀██████████▀▀▀


 
 ▄▄         ▄▄             ▄▄
▐██▌       ▐██▌           ███▌
▐██▌       ▐██▌     ▄▄▄▄▄▄███▌      ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄     ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
▐██▌       ▐██▌   ▄██████████▌   ▄███████████   ▄██████████
▐█████████████▌  ███▀     ▐██▌  ▐███▀     ███  ▐███▀
▐██▌       ▐██▌ ▐██▌      ▐██▌  ███▌      ███  ███▌
▐██▌       ▐██▌  ███▄     ▐██▌  ▐███▄     ███  ▐███▄
▐██▌       ▐██▌   ▀██████████▌   ▀██████  ███   ▀██████████
▀▀         ▀▀       ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀       ▀▀▀▀  ▀▀▀      ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀


██
███
███
███ ██
███ ██
███ ██
███ ██
███ ██
███ ██
 ██ 
  █

.......Whitepaper.......
.
██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████
.
FacebookTwitterBitcointalk
Sukrim
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2212


View Profile
July 08, 2014, 12:28:01 AM
 #105

Anyway, how on Earth are these leveraged longs holding on for these periods of time while paying these sky-high interest rates? Especially considering interest rates for USD are at record lows in the real world ... It just makes zero chance. I would not be surprised if something shady is going on.
Just look at the charts - as long as there are swings like this, 0.2%/day interest is pocket change. Also consider that other exchanges charge more for a single trade (often from both sides), not just per day. If you trade one single time less you already have saved the swap fees...

https://bitfinex.com <-- leveraged trading of BTCUSD, LTCUSD and LTCBTC (long and short) - 10% discount on fees for the first 30 days with this refcode: x5K9YtL3Zb
Mail me at Bitmessage: BM-BbiHiVv5qh858ULsyRDtpRrG9WjXN3xf
wachtwoord
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1624


View Profile
July 08, 2014, 01:15:00 AM
 #106

Anyway, how on Earth are these leveraged longs holding on for these periods of time while paying these sky-high interest rates? Especially considering interest rates for USD are at record lows in the real world ... It just makes zero chance. I would not be surprised if something shady is going on.
Just look at the charts - as long as there are swings like this, 0.2%/day interest is pocket change. Also consider that other exchanges charge more for a single trade (often from both sides), not just per day. If you trade one single time less you already have saved the swap fees...

But you can borrow USD way cheaper ...

nrd525
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1411


View Profile
July 08, 2014, 01:29:13 AM
 #107

Apparently the people going long have already maxed out their existing credit.  There are some uber-bulls.

Another note on sustainability - the amount of swaps has been growing since Bitfinex started.  I've been watching since January 2013.  So far it's proven relatively sustainable. It is very possible that some of the speculators are sitting on massive profits from having gone long in 2013.

Don't day trade.
wachtwoord
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1624


View Profile
July 08, 2014, 01:31:48 AM
 #108

Apparently the people going long have already maxed out their existing credit.  There are some uber-bulls.

Another note on sustainability - the amount of swaps has been growing since Bitfinex started.  I've been watching since January 2013.  So far it's proven relatively sustainable. It is very possible that some of the speculators are sitting on massive profits from having gone long in 2013.

Well then the rates will go way down when the ETF is released as I can borrow USD at Interactive Brokers for 1.59% APR https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=interest&p=schedule2

Sukrim
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2212


View Profile
July 08, 2014, 01:46:31 AM
 #109

Anyway, how on Earth are these leveraged longs holding on for these periods of time while paying these sky-high interest rates? Especially considering interest rates for USD are at record lows in the real world ... It just makes zero chance. I would not be surprised if something shady is going on.
Just look at the charts - as long as there are swings like this, 0.2%/day interest is pocket change. Also consider that other exchanges charge more for a single trade (often from both sides), not just per day. If you trade one single time less you already have saved the swap fees...

But you can borrow USD way cheaper ...
With a lot more effort maybe, also you either will NOT be able to borrow a few 100k USD with BTC as collateral or you might at least have to answer some quite nasty questions. Also USD are not transferred as fast as BTC - depending on your lender it would take several days until you actually have the USD you borrowed on an exchange to trade with.

https://bitfinex.com <-- leveraged trading of BTCUSD, LTCUSD and LTCBTC (long and short) - 10% discount on fees for the first 30 days with this refcode: x5K9YtL3Zb
Mail me at Bitmessage: BM-BbiHiVv5qh858ULsyRDtpRrG9WjXN3xf
wachtwoord
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1624


View Profile
July 08, 2014, 02:36:52 AM
 #110

Anyway, how on Earth are these leveraged longs holding on for these periods of time while paying these sky-high interest rates? Especially considering interest rates for USD are at record lows in the real world ... It just makes zero chance. I would not be surprised if something shady is going on.
Just look at the charts - as long as there are swings like this, 0.2%/day interest is pocket change. Also consider that other exchanges charge more for a single trade (often from both sides), not just per day. If you trade one single time less you already have saved the swap fees...

But you can borrow USD way cheaper ...
With a lot more effort maybe, also you either will NOT be able to borrow a few 100k USD with BTC as collateral or you might at least have to answer some quite nasty questions. Also USD are not transferred as fast as BTC - depending on your lender it would take several days until you actually have the USD you borrowed on an exchange to trade with.

And that makes up this incredible difference? Well apparently the market thinks so. If the market as reflected by Bitfinex actually is a real and free market that is ...

Dalmar
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 588



View Profile
July 08, 2014, 02:44:31 AM
 #111

And that makes up this incredible difference? Well apparently the market thinks so. If the market as reflected by Bitfinex actually is a real and free market that is ...

The Chinese exchanges recently have been copying BFX's swap model and their rates are fairly similar. The high interest rates are basically bitcoin exchange risk premiums.

██
█║█
║║║
║║║
█║█
██
'BTC MULTI-WALLET SOON'
▬▬▬▬ Download WHITEPAPER ▬▬▬▬

                    ▄██▄
                  ▄██████▄
                ▄██████████
              ▄██████████▀   ▄▄
            ▄██████████▀   ▄████▄
          ▄██████████▀    ████████▄
         ██████████▀      ▀████████
         ▀███████▀   ▄███▄  ▀████▀   ▄█▄
    ▄███▄  ▀███▀   ▄███████▄  ▀▀   ▄█████▄
  ▄███████▄      ▄██████████     ▄█████████
  █████████    ▄██████████▀    ▄██████████▀
   ▀█████▀   ▄██████████▀    ▄██████████▀
     ▀▀▀   ▄██████████▀    ▄██████████▀
          ██████████▀    ▄██████████▀
          ▀███████▀      █████████▀
            ▀███▀   ▄██▄  ▀█████▀
                  ▄██████▄  ▀▀▀
                  █████████
                   ▀█████▀
                     ▀▀▀
e i d o o
██

███▀▀
▐▐▌
▐▌
▐▌
▐▐▌
███▄▄
▀▀███
▐▌▌
▐▌
▐▌
▐▌▌
▄▄███
myself
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 938


chaos is fun...…damental :)


View Profile
July 08, 2014, 02:49:24 AM
 #112

And that makes up this incredible difference? Well apparently the market thinks so. If the market as reflected by Bitfinex actually is a real and free market that is ...

The Chinese exchanges recently have been copying BFX's swap model and their rates are fairly similar. The high interest rates are basically bitcoin exchange risk premiums.
yo mean my model

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
Gargulan
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 155


View Profile
July 08, 2014, 04:48:29 AM
 #113

And that makes up this incredible difference? Well apparently the market thinks so. If the market as reflected by Bitfinex actually is a real and free market that is ...

The Chinese exchanges recently have been copying BFX's swap model and their rates are fairly similar. The high interest rates are basically bitcoin exchange risk premiums.

Which Chinese exchange let user lend?
Sukrim
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2212


View Profile
July 08, 2014, 08:07:29 AM
 #114

And that makes up this incredible difference? Well apparently the market thinks so. If the market as reflected by Bitfinex actually is a real and free market that is ...

The Chinese exchanges recently have been copying BFX's swap model and their rates are fairly similar. The high interest rates are basically bitcoin exchange risk premiums.
yo mean my model
Hi Zhou Tong... Wink

https://bitfinex.com <-- leveraged trading of BTCUSD, LTCUSD and LTCBTC (long and short) - 10% discount on fees for the first 30 days with this refcode: x5K9YtL3Zb
Mail me at Bitmessage: BM-BbiHiVv5qh858ULsyRDtpRrG9WjXN3xf
myself
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 938


chaos is fun...…damental :)


View Profile
July 08, 2014, 08:30:37 AM
 #115

And that makes up this incredible difference? Well apparently the market thinks so. If the market as reflected by Bitfinex actually is a real and free market that is ...

The Chinese exchanges recently have been copying BFX's swap model and their rates are fairly similar. The high interest rates are basically bitcoin exchange risk premiums.
yo mean my model
Hi Zhou Tong... Wink
ha he had a bucket shop with inverse swaps I took that "shit" to leverage/debt market level that today is called swaps .......

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
Dalmar
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 588



View Profile
July 08, 2014, 12:02:40 PM
 #116

Which Chinese exchange let user lend?

OKCoin and Huobi (through BitVC).

██
█║█
║║║
║║║
█║█
██
'BTC MULTI-WALLET SOON'
▬▬▬▬ Download WHITEPAPER ▬▬▬▬

                    ▄██▄
                  ▄██████▄
                ▄██████████
              ▄██████████▀   ▄▄
            ▄██████████▀   ▄████▄
          ▄██████████▀    ████████▄
         ██████████▀      ▀████████
         ▀███████▀   ▄███▄  ▀████▀   ▄█▄
    ▄███▄  ▀███▀   ▄███████▄  ▀▀   ▄█████▄
  ▄███████▄      ▄██████████     ▄█████████
  █████████    ▄██████████▀    ▄██████████▀
   ▀█████▀   ▄██████████▀    ▄██████████▀
     ▀▀▀   ▄██████████▀    ▄██████████▀
          ██████████▀    ▄██████████▀
          ▀███████▀      █████████▀
            ▀███▀   ▄██▄  ▀█████▀
                  ▄██████▄  ▀▀▀
                  █████████
                   ▀█████▀
                     ▀▀▀
e i d o o
██

███▀▀
▐▐▌
▐▌
▐▌
▐▐▌
███▄▄
▀▀███
▐▌▌
▐▌
▐▌
▐▌▌
▄▄███
dadugan
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 179


View Profile
July 08, 2014, 02:34:47 PM
 #117

Which Chinese exchange let user lend?

OKCoin and Huobi (through BitVC).

I thought okcoin and houbi only let users borrow and not lend.
Marbit
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 686


View Profile
July 08, 2014, 06:14:30 PM
 #118

Apparently the people going long have already maxed out their existing credit.  There are some uber-bulls.

Another note on sustainability - the amount of swaps has been growing since Bitfinex started.  I've been watching since January 2013.  So far it's proven relatively sustainable. It is very possible that some of the speculators are sitting on massive profits from having gone long in 2013.

So they just stay put holding leveraged positions, and constantly renewing swap? Sometimes interest rates get up over 200% annual...
wachtwoord
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1624


View Profile
July 08, 2014, 08:48:53 PM
 #119

Apparently the people going long have already maxed out their existing credit.  There are some uber-bulls.

Another note on sustainability - the amount of swaps has been growing since Bitfinex started.  I've been watching since January 2013.  So far it's proven relatively sustainable. It is very possible that some of the speculators are sitting on massive profits from having gone long in 2013.

So they just stay put holding leveraged positions, and constantly renewing swap? Sometimes interest rates get up over 200% annual...

Yes, that cannot be profitable. How are people not going out of business?

theonewhowaskazu
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 448


View Profile
July 08, 2014, 09:08:06 PM
 #120

Its possible to take swap but never pay for it. That's the pb.

Also, since a year ago, we've increased by about 600%. It would be very possible to leverage long on that with a 200% interest rate.

Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!