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Author Topic: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well  (Read 61699 times)
Nekrobios
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August 14, 2014, 09:59:28 AM
 #461

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2di9hp/daily_discussion_thursday_august_14_2014/cjpvdic

User reporting he was not margin called even though the price went lower than his call price. If this is true and if this is not an exceptional case, then there are lots of positions that are still in jeopardy from that 24 million.
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August 14, 2014, 10:05:01 AM
 #462

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2di9hp/daily_discussion_thursday_august_14_2014/cjpvdic

User reporting he was not margin called even though the price went lower than his call price. If this is true and if this is not an exceptional case, then there are lots of positions that are still in jeopardy from that 24 million.

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August 14, 2014, 10:08:30 AM
 #463

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2di9hp/daily_discussion_thursday_august_14_2014/cjpvdic

User reporting he was not margin called even though the price went lower than his call price. If this is true and if this is not an exceptional case, then there are lots of positions that are still in jeopardy from that 24 million.

Wouldn't surprise me. Bitfinex was very buggy at the time. Lucky to get my fill at $46x and was too scared to move a muscle after that. Looks to me like at 24 million, there are still considerable longs from above $450.
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August 14, 2014, 10:12:53 AM
 #464

God, where have I seen this all before...?
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August 14, 2014, 10:20:44 AM
 #465

The USD lending rates on bfx have dropped from a high of something like 0.18 % daily (maybe a week or two ago) to the current level of around 0.07 % daily. I'm guessing this is the result of the bearish sentiment over the last few weeks => fewer people wanting to open new long positions => reduced demand for fiat. Plus, people closing their long positions opened 2 months ago => increased supply of fiat for lending. But the effect of lower daily rates will be to reduce pressure to close longs over the next month at least. This could contribute to a stronger base for the next rally.

BTC: 14oTcy1DNEXbcYjzPBpRWV11ZafWxNP8EU
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August 14, 2014, 10:28:41 AM
 #466

God, where have I seen this all before...?
The best thing about it? Bitfinex is actually built on Bitcoinica code, although I hear they changed a whole lot of it.
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August 14, 2014, 10:30:30 AM
 #467

Are we positive that those 24 million FinexUSD are backed by realcoinsdollars?

<=== INSERT SMART SIGNATURE HERE ===>
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August 14, 2014, 10:38:04 AM
 #468

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2di9hp/daily_discussion_thursday_august_14_2014/cjpvdic

User reporting he was not margin called even though the price went lower than his call price. If this is true and if this is not an exceptional case, then there are lots of positions that are still in jeopardy from that 24 million.

This makes sense. The price dropped to 451... then swung back and forth a few times... then stabilized at about $515 for about two minutes... people started buying in thinking it was final capitulation... then another set of margin calls down to about the $490 to $480 territory occurred.

This fiasco ended up costing me another $30 because I thought we were at final capitulation and that it would have to drop below $451 to retrigger the cascade. Then it went nuts again and, at the time, I wasn't going to sit put on it. I imagine this happened to quite a few people. Very scammy.
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August 14, 2014, 10:42:05 AM
 #469

Litecoin got a pump because people were exiting through BTC/LTC... I did the same because I had thought we had full capitulation right before the crash... the 3200 wall held on OKCoin... and the second I hit the button all went to hell. Anyhow, knowing that BTC/LTC orders hadn't caught up in real time to the crash, I used that as an exit.

I make note of this because if you aren't sure you can call the bottom then LTC might be a good bet. The crash was from $520ish to $451 or about 15%... LTC pumped up from $4.85 to $5.30... about ten percent. It might be a nice short-term crash play without the challenge of price guessing.
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August 14, 2014, 10:42:32 AM
 #470

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2di9hp/daily_discussion_thursday_august_14_2014/cjpvdic

User reporting he was not margin called even though the price went lower than his call price. If this is true and if this is not an exceptional case, then there are lots of positions that are still in jeopardy from that 24 million.

This makes sense. The price dropped to 451... then swung back and forth a few times... then stabilized at about $515 for about two minutes... people started buying in thinking it was final capitulation... then another set of margin calls down to about the $490 to $480 territory occurred.

This fiasco ended up costing me another $30 because I thought we were at final capitulation and that it would have to drop below $451 to retrigger the cascade. Then it went nuts again and, at the time, I wasn't going to sit put on it. I imagine this happened to quite a few people. Very scammy.

Did it actually hit 451 just now?
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August 14, 2014, 10:47:41 AM
 #471

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2di9hp/daily_discussion_thursday_august_14_2014/cjpvdic

User reporting he was not margin called even though the price went lower than his call price. If this is true and if this is not an exceptional case, then there are lots of positions that are still in jeopardy from that 24 million.

This makes sense. The price dropped to 451... then swung back and forth a few times... then stabilized at about $515 for about two minutes... people started buying in thinking it was final capitulation... then another set of margin calls down to about the $490 to $480 territory occurred.

This fiasco ended up costing me another $30 because I thought we were at final capitulation and that it would have to drop below $451 to retrigger the cascade. Then it went nuts again and, at the time, I wasn't going to sit put on it. I imagine this happened to quite a few people. Very scammy.

Did it actually hit 451 just now?

No... couple hours ago.
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August 14, 2014, 11:39:54 AM
 #472

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2di9hp/daily_discussion_thursday_august_14_2014/cjpvdic

User reporting he was not margin called even though the price went lower than his call price. If this is true and if this is not an exceptional case, then there are lots of positions that are still in jeopardy from that 24 million.

This makes sense. The price dropped to 451... then swung back and forth a few times... then stabilized at about $515 for about two minutes... people started buying in thinking it was final capitulation... then another set of margin calls down to about the $490 to $480 territory occurred.

This fiasco ended up costing me another $30 because I thought we were at final capitulation and that it would have to drop below $451 to retrigger the cascade. Then it went nuts again and, at the time, I wasn't going to sit put on it. I imagine this happened to quite a few people. Very scammy.

Did it actually hit 451 just now?

No... couple hours ago.

It rebounds quick then.
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August 14, 2014, 11:43:27 AM
 #473

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2di9hp/daily_discussion_thursday_august_14_2014/cjpvdic

User reporting he was not margin called even though the price went lower than his call price. If this is true and if this is not an exceptional case, then there are lots of positions that are still in jeopardy from that 24 million.

This makes sense. The price dropped to 451... then swung back and forth a few times... then stabilized at about $515 for about two minutes... people started buying in thinking it was final capitulation... then another set of margin calls down to about the $490 to $480 territory occurred.

This fiasco ended up costing me another $30 because I thought we were at final capitulation and that it would have to drop below $451 to retrigger the cascade. Then it went nuts again and, at the time, I wasn't going to sit put on it. I imagine this happened to quite a few people. Very scammy.

In real time it sure did (at least from what I remember... I very possibly suffered an aneurysm during the event)... there was at least a couple minute gap between the 451 and then a subsequent smaller cascade.
Did it actually hit 451 just now?

No... couple hours ago.

It rebounds quick then.
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August 14, 2014, 03:10:53 PM
 #474

God, where have I seen this all before...?
The best thing about it? Bitfinex is actually built on Bitcoinica code, although I hear they changed a whole lot of it.

LOL!
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August 14, 2014, 03:26:41 PM
 #475

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2di9hp/daily_discussion_thursday_august_14_2014/cjpvdic

User reporting he was not margin called even though the price went lower than his call price. If this is true and if this is not an exceptional case, then there are lots of positions that are still in jeopardy from that 24 million.

This makes sense. The price dropped to 451... then swung back and forth a few times... then stabilized at about $515 for about two minutes... people started buying in thinking it was final capitulation... then another set of margin calls down to about the $490 to $480 territory occurred.

This fiasco ended up costing me another $30 because I thought we were at final capitulation and that it would have to drop below $451 to retrigger the cascade. Then it went nuts again and, at the time, I wasn't going to sit put on it. I imagine this happened to quite a few people. Very scammy.

Did it actually hit 451 just now?

Gah!  And my first buy was placed at 450.02!
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August 14, 2014, 04:02:44 PM
 #476

Looking at the enormous quantity of longs on Bitfinex I would have expected a MUCH bigger crash, maybe it's still gonna happen.

This is nothing we haven't seen before...

I mean, still 24M in longs, who the fuck is still long now? from where? still from months ago?

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August 14, 2014, 04:08:18 PM
 #477

Anyone have an opinion for the likelihood of revisiting sub $450 to cascade off a few more longs? I was expecting this to happen, but bigger. Not sure if the market is satisfied with the result.
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August 14, 2014, 05:08:30 PM
 #478

Anyone have an opinion for the likelihood of revisiting sub $450 to cascade off a few more longs? I was expecting this to happen, but bigger. Not sure if the market is satisfied with the result.

I don't think this is over. It looks like one or two sells totaling around 5000-5500 began the cascade. I have my suspicions that it was actually a margin long whale stop hunting and lowering his base cost.....

From bfxdata, we can see there are still over 10 million in longs taken above $450 (not taking swaps into consideration), so we shall see....
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August 14, 2014, 06:46:38 PM
 #479

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2di9hp/daily_discussion_thursday_august_14_2014/cjpvdic

User reporting he was not margin called even though the price went lower than his call price. If this is true and if this is not an exceptional case, then there are lots of positions that are still in jeopardy from that 24 million.

Wouldn't surprise me. Bitfinex was very buggy at the time. Lucky to get my fill at $46x and was too scared to move a muscle after that. Looks to me like at 24 million, there are still considerable longs from above $450.

True. But if Finex is buggy and the orderbook acts out more shallow than it really is (as orders are not filled, and users are not called) then the crash probably played out a bit worse than it should have. So any more margin calls should crash the price much further down than it already did.
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August 14, 2014, 06:48:47 PM
 #480

The best thing about it? Bitfinex is actually built on Bitcoinica code, although I hear they changed a whole lot of it.
LOL!

Is this actually true?

Wasn't Bitcoinica so buggy it was possible to hack in a thousand ways?
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