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Author Topic: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well  (Read 61726 times)
inca
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October 04, 2014, 08:23:14 PM
 #601

While the USD amount of swaps is down from the peak, it could actually represent a larger BTC long position.  

It is more likely that there are a large number of positions in the red, but if people have put new money into the exchange it could represent as many as 50,000 bitcoins (at $400).

So we might yet seem a flash crash.  I've been wondering if the bottom would be a slow reversal, or if it'd have a mini flash crash.  December 2011 had a slow reversal if I recall correctly.

It isn't as simple as that. The number of short contracts is also at ATH, no? Once the selling stalls, a squeeze is possible.


50,000 long vs 12,000 short battling on a downward trend. Pretty simple i'd say.

Since the long : short ratio has always been skewed to the long side it clearly isn't that simple.
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Newbie1022
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October 05, 2014, 01:39:31 PM
 #602

More may be coming now I suppose? I don't see any terrible bubble in the long swaps anymore, but we do have near 20 million USD left and the price is going down hard.

I am surprised we haven't had a flash crash, already. Frankly, if that would have happened around the $400 level then we'd probably have seen a reprieve, already. It's almost like controlled burns in a forest -- because BFX didn't let it burn a month or two ago we never established a safe zone. Hence, the steady drip downward was able to continue.

Given the amount of longs has not changed much in the past few weeks, I'd have to imagine that those in the red have added outside funds to their account to avoid getting a margin call. That said, the fuse has to be ready to light soon. I'd expect us to have a mini-flash down to about $260 (plus or minus $10 to $15)... then a pop up from there. If not that, then Jesus.
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October 05, 2014, 01:51:41 PM
 #603

...
I am surprised we haven't had a flash crash, already.
...

Me too. This drop to 298$ should have triggered margin calls and a flash crash due to long squeeze.
Can someone explain why it didn't happen? Could BFX be cooking the books to avoid this?

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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October 05, 2014, 01:55:04 PM
 #604

...
I am surprised we haven't had a flash crash, already.
...

Me too. This drop to 298$ should have triggered margin calls and a flash crash due to long squeeze.
Can someone explain why it didn't happen? Could BFX be cooking the books to avoid this?

This. I wonder. I actually think they are making the matter worse by not allowing some of the forest to burn. If I were engineering the world I'd say let it burn to about $260... then we can get a bounce in the weeks thereafter into the $400 to $500 range and calm down for a bit.
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October 05, 2014, 05:31:40 PM
 #605

Longs did decrease a little 17,784,961.49 USD
myself
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October 25, 2014, 04:59:11 PM
 #606

someone just shorted on the hole   Grin

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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October 26, 2014, 08:23:34 AM
 #607

Total sum of active swaps
16,281.89 BTC

Holy shit.
molecular
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October 26, 2014, 09:18:58 AM
 #608

Total sum of active swaps
16,281.89 BTC

Holy shit.

jesus!

That's an all-time-high.

EDIT: and wow: 0.18 %/day is the swap rate

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October 26, 2014, 09:28:47 AM
 #609

insider information?
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October 26, 2014, 04:26:43 PM
 #610

lets put some logic to the table and to provide proof why hampering the free market by placing arbitrary rules is bad

for some reason BFX have a 1% cap or soft cap at 1% interest per day in a squeeze scenario the price move is much more above (FRR and all that )


1% at current price is 3,52usd this is the maximum interest to pay for 1 day/btc , in a squeeze scenario does the price more above 3,52 USD/24h ? hell yea
so it can be quite profitable so borrow BTC if you are in a long long position just to make the loans BTC loans more expensive

also in a long squeeze scenario it can be quite profitable to borrow USD if you are in a short position just to make USD loans more expensive

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
Yololintian
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October 26, 2014, 07:45:06 PM
 #611

It took about 2 months for the longs to get squeezed, after they had overextended significantly, and there were only 3k shorts at that time, so buying pressure from those was very low once we broke below $600. There are still about 30-50k btc long positions that will allow short covering.

I think we will see a continued downtrend and make a new low, with shorts growing to new highs along the way. Capitulation brought many many more coins to exchanges, so volume will seem a lot higher than previous months. Either way, the short squeeze is going to be glorious when it finally happens.
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October 26, 2014, 11:01:11 PM
 #612

It took about 2 months for the longs to get squeezed, after they had overextended significantly, and there were only 3k shorts at that time, so buying pressure from those was very low once we broke below $600. There are still about 30-50k btc long positions that will allow short covering.

I think we will see a continued downtrend and make a new low, with shorts growing to new highs along the way. Capitulation brought many many more coins to exchanges, so volume will seem a lot higher than previous months. Either way, the short squeeze is going to be glorious when it finally happens.

You could be right. Shorts at ATH now already though.
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October 27, 2014, 06:30:42 AM
 #613

17,253.67 BTC
Omikifuse
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October 27, 2014, 06:35:25 AM
 #614

17,253.67 BTC

seems big.


But seems we will see even bigger numbers until the end of year.

Things don't look good

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Nekrobios
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October 27, 2014, 06:45:04 AM
 #615

Damn, 17,794.12 BTC
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October 27, 2014, 06:48:50 AM
 #616

If I were a shorter I'd be scared as hell right now.

Couldn't it be some kind of manipulation? I mean, funds are borrowed, but not used to short yet.
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October 27, 2014, 06:50:06 AM
 #617

premature to say it.
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October 27, 2014, 07:02:22 AM
 #618

If I were a shorter I'd be scared as hell right now.

Couldn't it be some kind of manipulation? I mean, funds are borrowed, but not used to short yet.

It could be a manipulation. It takes less risk to borrow and to pay only interests instead to open short position. If borrower had intentions to short, he would already done that. But he is aware of the risk so he tries to make bearish sentiment again to close his existing short position.

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molecular
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October 27, 2014, 07:08:24 AM
 #619

If I were a shorter I'd be scared as hell right now.

Couldn't it be some kind of manipulation? I mean, funds are borrowed, but not used to short yet.

How do you determine this?

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October 27, 2014, 07:33:15 AM
 #620

If I were a shorter I'd be scared as hell right now.

Couldn't it be some kind of manipulation? I mean, funds are borrowed, but not used to short yet.

How do you determine this?
I can't, I can only guess, but it's possible. The question is whether it's probable.
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