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Author Topic: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well  (Read 61726 times)
MOB
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November 13, 2014, 04:59:02 AM
 #641

Bitfinex prices on BTC are $468 right now versus $449 on Bitstamp. Seems a bit odd? Are leveraged bulls really that eager?
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November 13, 2014, 05:05:03 AM
 #642

Bitfinex prices on BTC are $468 right now versus $449 on Bitstamp. Seems a bit odd? Are leveraged bulls really that eager?
It could very well be a short squeeze as people with short positions have been forced to cover their position. Arbitrage will likely cause the difference in price to decline 
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November 13, 2014, 05:59:17 AM
 #643

Short interest is the same due to margin calls... The sell off will resume before the weekend, I am opening shorts, all long positions closed.
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November 13, 2014, 06:24:00 AM
 #644

Bitfinex prices on BTC are $468 right now versus $449 on Bitstamp. Seems a bit odd? Are leveraged bulls really that eager?
It could very well be a short squeeze as people with short positions have been forced to cover their position. Arbitrage will likely cause the difference in price to decline 

I agree, short squeeze related.  I think arbitrage will reduce the difference, but Bitfinex has been really leading this really, and I don't see an end in sight because short interest appears to still be the same.   

appears to me the rally is china-led.

bitfinex is just able to follow faster due to the USD swap market.

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November 13, 2014, 06:25:20 AM
 #645

Bitfinex prices on BTC are $468 right now versus $449 on Bitstamp. Seems a bit odd? Are leveraged bulls really that eager?
It could very well be a short squeeze as people with short positions have been forced to cover their position. Arbitrage will likely cause the difference in price to decline 

I agree, short squeeze related.  I think arbitrage will reduce the difference, but Bitfinex has been really leading this really, and I don't see an end in sight because short interest appears to still be the same.   

appears to me the rally is china-led.

bitfinex is just able to follow faster due to the USD swap market.
China led? Do you have any evidence to support this?

It appears that bitfinex may actually be leading the rally as it's price is above that of other exchanges
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November 13, 2014, 06:27:59 AM
 #646

Bitfinex prices on BTC are $468 right now versus $449 on Bitstamp. Seems a bit odd? Are leveraged bulls really that eager?
It could very well be a short squeeze as people with short positions have been forced to cover their position. Arbitrage will likely cause the difference in price to decline 

I agree, short squeeze related.  I think arbitrage will reduce the difference, but Bitfinex has been really leading this really, and I don't see an end in sight because short interest appears to still be the same.   

appears to me the rally is china-led.

bitfinex is just able to follow faster due to the USD swap market.
China led? Do you have any evidence to support this?

It appears that bitfinex may actually be leading the rally as it's price is above that of other exchanges
okcoin price is way higher.
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November 13, 2014, 06:49:06 AM
 #647

Bitfinex prices on BTC are $468 right now versus $449 on Bitstamp. Seems a bit odd? Are leveraged bulls really that eager?
It could very well be a short squeeze as people with short positions have been forced to cover their position. Arbitrage will likely cause the difference in price to decline 

I agree, short squeeze related.  I think arbitrage will reduce the difference, but Bitfinex has been really leading this really, and I don't see an end in sight because short interest appears to still be the same.   

appears to me the rally is china-led.

bitfinex is just able to follow faster due to the USD swap market.
China led? Do you have any evidence to support this?

It appears that bitfinex may actually be leading the rally as it's price is above that of other exchanges
okcoin price is way higher.

True, but I wouldn't say "way higher" just about $8-$9 higher.  Currently Bitfinex is at $462.5, and OkCoin is at $470.5.  Almost the same difference on normal days between Bitstamp and BTC-e ... so I don't think this difference makes it any clearer whether it's OkCoin or Bitfinex leading.


During the day it was more like a $15-20 difference.
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November 13, 2014, 06:56:00 AM
 #648

Bitfinex prices on BTC are $468 right now versus $449 on Bitstamp. Seems a bit odd? Are leveraged bulls really that eager?
It could very well be a short squeeze as people with short positions have been forced to cover their position. Arbitrage will likely cause the difference in price to decline 

I agree, short squeeze related.  I think arbitrage will reduce the difference, but Bitfinex has been really leading this really, and I don't see an end in sight because short interest appears to still be the same.   

appears to me the rally is china-led.

bitfinex is just able to follow faster due to the USD swap market.
China led? Do you have any evidence to support this?

It appears that bitfinex may actually be leading the rally as it's price is above that of other exchanges
okcoin price is way higher.

True, but I wouldn't say "way higher" just about $8-$9 higher.  Currently Bitfinex is at $462.5, and OkCoin is at $470.5.  Almost the same difference on normal days between Bitstamp and BTC-e ... so I don't think this difference makes it any clearer whether it's OkCoin or Bitfinex leading.


During the day it was more like a $15-20 difference.
A $20 difference is only ~0.45% difference which is less then the trading fee you would pay to trade on both exchanges so people will not attempt to arbitrage this difference and the difference is small enough to be statistically irrelevant.
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November 13, 2014, 06:57:32 AM
 #649

Bitfinex prices on BTC are $468 right now versus $449 on Bitstamp. Seems a bit odd? Are leveraged bulls really that eager?
It could very well be a short squeeze as people with short positions have been forced to cover their position. Arbitrage will likely cause the difference in price to decline 

I agree, short squeeze related.  I think arbitrage will reduce the difference, but Bitfinex has been really leading this really, and I don't see an end in sight because short interest appears to still be the same.   

appears to me the rally is china-led.

bitfinex is just able to follow faster due to the USD swap market.
China led? Do you have any evidence to support this?

It appears that bitfinex may actually be leading the rally as it's price is above that of other exchanges
okcoin price is way higher.

True, but I wouldn't say "way higher" just about $8-$9 higher.  Currently Bitfinex is at $462.5, and OkCoin is at $470.5.  Almost the same difference on normal days between Bitstamp and BTC-e ... so I don't think this difference makes it any clearer whether it's OkCoin or Bitfinex leading.


During the day it was more like a $15-20 difference.
A $20 difference is only ~0.45% difference which is less then the trading fee you would pay to trade on both exchanges so people will not attempt to arbitrage this difference and the difference is small enough to be statistically irrelevant.
more like 4.5% -- thats alot!
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November 13, 2014, 07:00:25 AM
 #650

Bitfinex prices on BTC are $468 right now versus $449 on Bitstamp. Seems a bit odd? Are leveraged bulls really that eager?
It could very well be a short squeeze as people with short positions have been forced to cover their position. Arbitrage will likely cause the difference in price to decline 

I agree, short squeeze related.  I think arbitrage will reduce the difference, but Bitfinex has been really leading this really, and I don't see an end in sight because short interest appears to still be the same.   

appears to me the rally is china-led.

bitfinex is just able to follow faster due to the USD swap market.
China led? Do you have any evidence to support this?

It appears that bitfinex may actually be leading the rally as it's price is above that of other exchanges
okcoin price is way higher.

True, but I wouldn't say "way higher" just about $8-$9 higher.  Currently Bitfinex is at $462.5, and OkCoin is at $470.5.  Almost the same difference on normal days between Bitstamp and BTC-e ... so I don't think this difference makes it any clearer whether it's OkCoin or Bitfinex leading.


During the day it was more like a $15-20 difference.
A $20 difference is only ~0.45% difference which is less then the trading fee you would pay to trade on both exchanges so people will not attempt to arbitrage this difference and the difference is small enough to be statistically irrelevant.
more like 4.5% -- thats alot!
Actually you are correct. My mistake Sad

It has declined because people have attempted to arbitrage the difference in prices, however this ability is limited because it takes time to get fiat to bitfinex so you cannot instantly buy unlimited amounts of coins there.
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November 13, 2014, 12:59:36 PM
 #651



no more usd left

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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November 13, 2014, 02:38:24 PM
 #652



LENDS USD
[{"rate":"46.2151","amount_lent":"25354183.99377569","timestamp":1415885681},{"rate":"45.7134","amount_lent":"25422973.86967759","timestamp":1415882100},{"rate":"39.9417","amount_lent":"24432063.05490754","timestamp":1415878490},{"rate":"34.49","amount_lent":"24085149.57999484","timestamp":1415874884},{"rate":"35.7464","amount_lent":"24291518.14652401","timestamp":1415871278},{"rate":"33.5533","amount_lent":"24342285.21627311","timestamp":1415867672},{"rate":"30.4738","amount_lent":"23587827.13128288","timestamp":1415864068},{"rate":"25.7434","amount_lent":"23928948.68797412","timestamp":1415860460},{"rate":"25.6673","amount_lent":"23723413.35155323","timestamp":1415856884},{"rate":"25.6432","amount_lent":"23929920.01964789","timestamp":1415853271}]

LENDS BTC
[{"rate":"4.8502","amount_lent":"12568.03336489","timestamp":1415885681},{"rate":"4.8727","amount_lent":"12608.08275801","timestamp":1415882100},{"rate":"4.9394","amount_lent":"12870.89775182","timestamp":1415878490},{"rate":"4.9786","amount_lent":"13203.39990871","timestamp":1415874884},{"rate":"4.9615","amount_lent":"12661.98324934","timestamp":1415871278},{"rate":"4.9907","amount_lent":"11378.57944459","timestamp":1415867672},{"rate":"5.0565","amount_lent":"11023.38351994","timestamp":1415864068},{"rate":"5.1834","amount_lent":"11530.52328282","timestamp":1415860460},{"rate":"5.255","amount_lent":"11662.64626497","timestamp":1415856884},{"rate":"5.2564","amount_lent":"11489.9390798","timestamp":1415853271}]

CURRENT BTC OFFERS
APR       (daily):    Amount

4.161000 (0.011400): 1.813832
4.161000 (0.011400): 0.117180
4.161000 (0.011400): 2.585825
4.197500 (0.011500): 10.000000
4.197500 (0.011500): 0.429321
4.380000 (0.012000): 16.803522
4.562500 (0.012500): 3.741487
4.671900 (0.012800): 1.041360
4.671900 (0.012800): 0.314970
4.672000 (0.012800): 50.000000
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November 13, 2014, 05:55:27 PM
 #653



no more usd left

Oh noooooo
THis is what leads to a sharp correction!  Lips sealed
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November 14, 2014, 12:08:32 AM
 #654

Credit bubble is back on.

My old theory: high rates attract lenders. If we see sustained rates of 0.15%-0.20%/day, we'll see a dramatic increase in swap available.

Some people who had auto-renewal FRR might have turned it off and are waiting to get their money back before they set new rates.  So this will withhold swap from the market for short periods.

Don't day trade.
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November 18, 2014, 04:43:58 PM
 #655

Total sum of active swaps
BTC    11,784.20 BTC

BTC    12,164.61 BTC  Undecided

BTC    13,742.21 BTC 

BTC    6,094.28 BTC  Huh

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November 18, 2014, 06:13:49 PM
 #656

It seems that this retracement was good for shorters Smiley
What I noticed is that short positions are a lot more dynamic than the long ones.
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November 18, 2014, 07:10:11 PM
 #657

It seems that this retracement was good for shorters Smiley
What I noticed is that short positions are a lot more dynamic than the long ones.

You would be insane to short long term in this market.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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November 18, 2014, 09:40:49 PM
 #658

It seems that this retracement was good for shorters Smiley
What I noticed is that short positions are a lot more dynamic than the long ones.

You would be insane to short long term in this market.
That's right, but holding leveraged long positions no matter what does seem strange to me.
If I want to have long-term position, I'm simply buying coins (no leverage) so that I'm not stopped out Cheesy
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November 19, 2014, 06:59:10 AM
 #659

It seems that this retracement was good for shorters Smiley
What I noticed is that short positions are a lot more dynamic than the long ones.

You would be insane to short long term in this market.
That's right, but holding leveraged long positions no matter what does seem strange to me.
If I want to have long-term position, I'm simply buying coins (no leverage) so that I'm not stopped out Cheesy

That's prudent. Not everyone is prudent, it seems.

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November 19, 2014, 08:42:11 AM
 #660

It seems that this retracement was good for shorters Smiley
What I noticed is that short positions are a lot more dynamic than the long ones.

You would be insane to short long term in this market.

Some traders short the coin to hedge the interest rate.

If coin price spike up, so too will the interest rate. If price goes down, they profit from short when the daily rate is down.

Anyway, anyone who short on every spike for the last few 9 months did very well compare to perma bull or perma bear.
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