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Author Topic: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well  (Read 61726 times)
Yololintian
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October 27, 2014, 07:38:37 AM
 #621

Pretty sure this is manipulation. Someone is taking all the btc swap offers but not actually shorting.
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October 27, 2014, 07:48:49 AM
 #622

Pretty sure this is manipulation. Someone is taking all the btc swap offers but not actually shorting.

So new shorters are not able to open new short positions. Ups. Do i smell direction north?

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EVERYONE IS A BANK
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myself
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October 27, 2014, 08:05:07 AM
 #623

Pretty sure this is manipulation. Someone is taking all the btc swap offers but not actually shorting.

So new shorters are not able to open new short positions. Ups. Do i smell direction north?


i explained this above


lets put some logic to the table and to provide proof why hampering the free market by placing arbitrary rules is bad

for some reason BFX have a 1% cap or soft cap at 1% interest per day in a squeeze scenario the price move is much more above (FRR and all that )


1% at current price is 3,52usd this is the maximum interest to pay for 1 day/btc , in a squeeze scenario does the price more above 3,52 USD/24h ? hell yea
so it can be quite profitable so borrow BTC if you are in a long long position just to make the loans BTC loans more expensive

also in a long squeeze scenario it can be quite profitable to borrow USD if you are in a short position just to make USD loans more expensive


Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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October 27, 2014, 08:13:11 AM
 #624

Pretty sure this is manipulation. Someone is taking all the btc swap offers but not actually shorting.

So new shorters are not able to open new short positions. Ups. Do i smell direction north?


i explained this above


lets put some logic to the table and to provide proof why hampering the free market by placing arbitrary rules is bad

for some reason BFX have a 1% cap or soft cap at 1% interest per day in a squeeze scenario the price move is much more above (FRR and all that )


1% at current price is 3,52usd this is the maximum interest to pay for 1 day/btc , in a squeeze scenario does the price more above 3,52 USD/24h ? hell yea
so it can be quite profitable so borrow BTC if you are in a long long position just to make the loans BTC loans more expensive

also in a long squeeze scenario it can be quite profitable to borrow USD if you are in a short position just to make USD loans more expensive


Thx. So someone is preparing ground for a short squeeze. We will see how this will roll out.

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DaRude
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October 27, 2014, 08:13:51 AM
 #625

Pretty sure this is manipulation. Someone is taking all the btc swap offers but not actually shorting.

So new shorters are not able to open new short positions. Ups. Do i smell direction north?


i explained this above


lets put some logic to the table and to provide proof why hampering the free market by placing arbitrary rules is bad

for some reason BFX have a 1% cap or soft cap at 1% interest per day in a squeeze scenario the price move is much more above (FRR and all that )


1% at current price is 3,52usd this is the maximum interest to pay for 1 day/btc , in a squeeze scenario does the price more above 3,52 USD/24h ? hell yea
so it can be quite profitable so borrow BTC if you are in a long long position just to make the loans BTC loans more expensive

also in a long squeeze scenario it can be quite profitable to borrow USD if you are in a short position just to make USD loans more expensive


Unless he's just accumulating to dump all at once and squeeze longs?

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October 27, 2014, 03:06:03 PM
 #626

Speaking of manipulation, let's assume that this WhaleMan using these 10k swaps as manipulation tool and not actually used it for dumping,

Then, based on the swap graphs, my wild assumption that his average rate is around 0.11%
then we can see how much it costs for that whale to keep up with his manipulation game:

10 000*0.0011 = 11 BTC / day = around 3,9 kUSD /day

Just saying. It's not that super costly for him, considering he need to keep it only 1-3 days.
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October 27, 2014, 06:13:03 PM
 #627

If I were a shorter I'd be scared as hell right now.

Couldn't it be some kind of manipulation? I mean, funds are borrowed, but not used to short yet.

It could be a manipulation. It takes less risk to borrow and to pay only interests instead to open short position. If borrower had intentions to short, he would already done that. But he is aware of the risk so he tries to make bearish sentiment again to close his existing short position.

Keep telling yourself that.

Heard the same theories when longs were at 200%+ swap.

Anything to avoid obvious truth

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BitBits
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October 28, 2014, 01:42:07 AM
 #628

Total sum of active swaps
16,281.89 BTC

Holy shit.
It is right now at 18.5K and it spiked to 20K earlier.

BUT, comparatively speaking this is not that much. It is about 6.5 mln in swaps of shorts vs. currently 22.5 mln in longs. This is far from equal, but things indeed seem to be getting "there" (and healthier).
Moreover, I noticed that when market dictates, shorts are a lot more "flexible" in liquidating their positions than "to da moon people" (as someone else put it). So, in order for short squeeze to happen in the manner and scale the longs were squeezed previously, the borrowed BTC value probably should get to a much, much higher values.

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October 30, 2014, 08:15:29 PM
 #629

Total sum of active swaps
BTC    11,784.20 BTC

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October 30, 2014, 08:24:50 PM
 #630

Massive short covering seems to have happened. Still, 11k is substantial.
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October 30, 2014, 08:42:21 PM
 #631

Total sum of active swaps
BTC    11,784.20 BTC

BTC    12,164.61 BTC  Undecided

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Yololintian
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October 31, 2014, 10:24:54 AM
 #632

shorts closed, longs opened and.... were almost back to where we started ($335).
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November 02, 2014, 04:51:47 AM
 #633

Massive short covering seems to have happened. Still, 11k is substantial.
This massive amount of short positions is important however we will not see a short squeeze unless we see a major uptick in the price of bitcoin first as people with short positions can simply roll over their short position
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November 02, 2014, 03:22:03 PM
 #634

Massive short covering seems to have happened. Still, 11k is substantial.
This massive amount of short positions is important however we will not see a short squeeze unless we see a major uptick in the price of bitcoin first as people with short positions can simply roll over their short position
Any squeeze usually happens only after a major move. So, for a short squeeze we must see a significant move up. But what's important is that the larger the amount of shorts, the more dramatic will be the move.
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November 02, 2014, 04:32:23 PM
 #635

Total sum of active swaps
BTC    11,784.20 BTC

BTC    12,164.61 BTC  Undecided

BTC    13,742.21 BTC 

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November 02, 2014, 04:49:32 PM
 #636

Total sum of active swaps
BTC    11,784.20 BTC

BTC    12,164.61 BTC  Undecided

BTC    13,742.21 BTC 

Sound more like someone is trying to manipulate btc swap rate.
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November 02, 2014, 05:48:16 PM
 #637

Massive short covering seems to have happened. Still, 11k is substantial.
This massive amount of short positions is important however we will not see a short squeeze unless we see a major uptick in the price of bitcoin first as people with short positions can simply roll over their short position
Any squeeze usually happens only after a major move. So, for a short squeeze we must see a significant move up. But what's important is that the larger the amount of shorts, the more dramatic will be the move.
Well, there is another possible, but unlikely way that the shorts could get squeezed: if people who hold long positions (and lend out their bitcoin) were to suddenly stop lending out their bitcoin and withdraw their money to a wallet they control then bitfinex would need to force people who are short bitcoin to cover their short position. This could potentially be caused by a competing exchange (that offers leverage or not) to fail and/or run away with depositor's money.
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November 02, 2014, 07:13:06 PM
 #638

Massive short covering seems to have happened. Still, 11k is substantial.
This massive amount of short positions is important however we will not see a short squeeze unless we see a major uptick in the price of bitcoin first as people with short positions can simply roll over their short position
Any squeeze usually happens only after a major move. So, for a short squeeze we must see a significant move up. But what's important is that the larger the amount of shorts, the more dramatic will be the move.
Well, there is another possible, but unlikely way that the shorts could get squeezed: if people who hold long positions (and lend out their bitcoin) were to suddenly stop lending out their bitcoin and withdraw their money to a wallet they control then bitfinex would need to force people who are short bitcoin to cover their short position. This could potentially be caused by a competing exchange (that offers leverage or not) to fail and/or run away with depositor's money.
Yep, that's possible, but it's an event that's very hard to predict.

Another possible situation where you can get squeezed (also unlikely) is a long sideways trading that doesn't result in any significant price movement. As you're paying to maintain your position, you can run out of margin (especially if rates go to far up).
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November 02, 2014, 10:18:58 PM
 #639

Massive short covering seems to have happened. Still, 11k is substantial.
This massive amount of short positions is important however we will not see a short squeeze unless we see a major uptick in the price of bitcoin first as people with short positions can simply roll over their short position
Any squeeze usually happens only after a major move. So, for a short squeeze we must see a significant move up. But what's important is that the larger the amount of shorts, the more dramatic will be the move.
Well, there is another possible, but unlikely way that the shorts could get squeezed: if people who hold long positions (and lend out their bitcoin) were to suddenly stop lending out their bitcoin and withdraw their money to a wallet they control then bitfinex would need to force people who are short bitcoin to cover their short position. This could potentially be caused by a competing exchange (that offers leverage or not) to fail and/or run away with depositor's money.
Yep, that's possible, but it's an event that's very hard to predict.

Another possible situation where you can get squeezed (also unlikely) is a long sideways trading that doesn't result in any significant price movement. As you're paying to maintain your position, you can run out of margin (especially if rates go to far up).
If prices remain sideways for a long time then people will likely naturally close their positions over time (or close only a portion of their position when their margin is too "low").

I would say that it would be likely that one or more of the chinese exchanges will likely implode in the simi-near future as they are likely running some kind of scam (I think they will likely eventually run with customer money). This could potentially cause the kind of short squeeze described above.

I am curious to see any kind of data on the swaps from right after gox imploded
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November 13, 2014, 02:47:00 AM
 #640

Where do we stand now regarding shorts?
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