Bitcoin Forum
December 14, 2017, 11:08:32 PM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.15.1  [Torrent].
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 [36] 37 38 39 »
  Print  
Author Topic: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well  (Read 61726 times)
Hunyadi
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1269


☑ ♟ ☐ ♚


View Profile
January 10, 2015, 07:24:57 PM
 #701

http://i.imgur.com/2tIPKUq.png

via /r/bitcoinmarkets

Quite interesting! Thanks for posting!

▂▃▅▇█▓▒░BTC-Cultist░▒▓█▇▅▃▂
1513292912
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1513292912

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1513292912
Reply with quote  #2

1513292912
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1513292912
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1513292912

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1513292912
Reply with quote  #2

1513292912
Report to moderator
1513292912
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1513292912

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1513292912
Reply with quote  #2

1513292912
Report to moderator
AceWallen
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 480



View Profile
January 10, 2015, 11:22:54 PM
 #702

This data is very misleading. The increasing (ATH) number of shorts doesn't exist in a vacuum. We don't know how much of these swaps are a) new traders/increased liquidity vs. old liquidity and b) how many swaps are actively being used to take short positions.

Follow this data at your peril.
About b. Is there any point in borrowing without opening a position? You still have to pay interest, what's the point?

for one thing, many people watch bfx data and try to extrapolate. if someone perceives that others will think "SHORT SQUEEZE!!!" when they see another 10k swaps taken out, maybe there is some incentive to borrow them.
OgNasty
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2394


Irrational Exuberance


View Profile WWW
January 14, 2015, 08:44:21 AM
 #703

Looks like we're seeing some short covering while the price is bottoming.

BITSLER                 ▄███
               ▄████▀
             ▄████▀
           ▄████▀  ▄██▄
         ▄████▀    ▀████▄
       ▄████▀        ▀████▄
     ▄████▀            ▀████▄
   ▄████▀                ▀████▄
 ▄████▀ ▄████▄      ▄████▄ ▀████▄
█████   ██████      ██████   █████
 ▀████▄ ▀████▀      ▀████▀ ▄████▀
   ▀████▄                ▄████▀
     ▀████▄            ▄████▀
       ▀████▄        ▄████▀
         ▀████▄    ▄████▀
           ▀████▄▄████▀
             ▀██████▀
               ▀▀▀▀
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▄            
▄▄▄▄▀▀▀▀    ▄▄█▄▄ ▀▀▄         
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▄      
█  ▀▄▄  ▀█▀▀ ▄      ▀████   ▀▀▄   
█ █▄  ▀▄   ▀████       ▀▀ ▄██▄ ▀▀▄
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
█  ▀▀       ▀▄▄ ▀████      ▄▄▄▀▀▀  █
█            ▄ ▀▄    ▄▄▄▀▀▀   ▄▄  █
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
█ ▄▄   ███   ▀██  █           ▀▀  █ 
█ ███  ▀██       █        ▄▄      █ 
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀  
▀▄            █        ▀▀      █  
▀▀▄   ███▄  █   ▄▄          █   
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀    
▀▀▄   █   ▀▀▄▄▄▀▀▀         
▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄█▄▄▀▀▀▀              
              ▄▄▄██████▄▄▄
          ▄▄████████████████▄▄
        ▄██████▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀██████▄
▄     ▄█████▀             ▀█████▄
██▄▄ █████▀                ▀█████
 ████████            ▄██      █████
  ████████▄         ███▀       ████▄
  █████████▀▀     ▄███▀        █████
   █▀▀▀          █████         █████
     ▄▄▄         ████          █████
   █████          ▀▀           ████▀
    █████                     █████
     █████▄                 ▄█████
      ▀█████▄             ▄█████▀
        ▀██████▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄██████▀
          ▀▀████████████████▀▀
              ▀▀▀██████▀▀▀
            ▄▄▄███████▄▄▄
         ▄█▀▀▀ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ▀▀▀█▄
       █▀▀ ▄█████████████▄ ▀▀█
     █▀▀ ███████████████████ ▀▀█
    █▀ ███████████████████████ ▀█
   █▀ ███████████████▀▀ ███████ ▀█
 ▄█▀ ██████████████▀      ▀█████ ▀█▄
███ ███████████▀▀            ▀▀██ ███
███ ███████▀▀                     ███
███ ▀▀▀▀                          ███
▀██▄                             ▄██▀
  ▀█▄                            ▀▀
    █▄       █▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄█
     █▄      ▀█████████▀
      ▀█▄      ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
        ▀▀█▄▄  ▄▄▄
            ▀▀█████
[]
opossum
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 935


View Profile
January 15, 2015, 12:32:09 AM
 #704

Looks like we're seeing some short covering while the price is bottoming.
It looks like you are right, at least about the first part of your statement.

The price on bitfinex is ~$10 higher then bitstamp and btc-e while having ~4x as much trading volume. I am not sure if the price really has bottomed yet or not, I guess we will probably see in the next day or so


 
         ▄▄█████████▄▄
      ▄█████████████████▄
   ▄████▀            ▀████▄
  █████                █████▄
 ███████████████████████████▄
████▀▀▀▀▀▀▀████████▀▀▀▀▀▀▀███▄
████        ██████        ████
████        ██████        ████
████        ██████        ████
████        ██████        ████
 ████▄      ██████      ▄████
  ▀████     ██████    ▄████▀
    ▀████▄▄▄██████▄▄▄████▀
      ▀▀██████████████▀▀
TIDEX



RoadTrain
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1372


View Profile
January 15, 2015, 04:21:47 AM
 #705

Looks like we're seeing some short covering while the price is bottoming.
And now the shorts are at over 25k BTC again.
nrd525
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1411


View Profile
January 15, 2015, 04:24:14 AM
 #706

Swaps back to an all-time-high at 26,500 BTC.  A bit weird because the $150-$165 bottom sure looked like a desperate v-shaped crash to the absolute bottom (of the one year bear cycle).

Don't day trade.
RoadTrain
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1372


View Profile
January 18, 2015, 10:50:48 PM
 #707

Looks like the recent upswing is totally because of some short closing.
GrandmaJean
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 280


View Profile
January 19, 2015, 12:09:18 AM
 #708

Looks like the recent upswing is totally because of some short closing.
I wouldn't be surprised. Bitfinex has been trading above other major exchanges roughly since the price bottomed out. The price now roughly matches that of bitstamp and is ~$6 higher then btc-e.

I would say that this would indicate that buying pressure due to short covering is mostly gone. It will be interesting to see where we go from here
betterangels
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 292


BitcoinAngels


View Profile
January 19, 2015, 05:37:58 AM
 #709

reasons go higher, please post your extraordinary insight, we're looking into the crystal ball, as well, not much there, except maybe a pile up traffic jam of too many sellers and no buyers, which is more down, as well..
Walsoraj
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 686


Ultranode


View Profile
January 19, 2015, 05:43:58 AM
 #710

My guess is that some exchanges had more fiat sitting on egopay than they are admitting.
derpinheimer
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 896


View Profile
January 19, 2015, 06:08:26 AM
 #711

As long as there isnt a withdrawal rush it doesnt really matter. A long term downtrend could deplete fiat reserves though.
Mieehayii
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 491



View Profile
January 19, 2015, 06:28:44 AM
 #712

this result is consistent with my prediction  Smiley

███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▀███▀████
████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▄▀▄█████
███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▀▄█▄▀████

███▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀██████▀▀▀████████▀▀▀██▀▀▀███████████▀▀▀██▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀████████▀▀▀█████
███          ▀███   ████████   ██    ▀█████████   ██           ▀████   █████
███   █████▄   ██   ████████   ██      ▀███████   ██   ██████▄   ███   █████
███   ██████   ██   ████████   ██   █▄   ▀█████   ██   ████████   ██   █████
███   █████▀   ██   ████████   ██   ███▄   ▀███   ██   ████████   ██   █████
███          ▄███   ▀██████▀   ██   █████▄   ▀█   ██   ███████▀   ██   █████
███   ▄▄▄▄▄███████   ▀▀▀▀▀▀   ███   ███████▄      ██   ▀▀▀▀▀▀   ▄███   █████
███   █████████████▄        ▄████   █████████▄    ██        ▄▄▄█████   █████
████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████
████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████
██
██
██
██
██
██
██
██
██
██
██
██
██
.Any Store Can Buy, Sell and Accept Cryptocurrency.██
██
██
██
██
██
██
██
██
██
██
██
██
[[[ Whitepaper    Twitter     Facebook]]]
[[[  Telegram      Medium     Youtube ]]]
molecular
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2436



View Profile
January 19, 2015, 06:37:56 AM
 #713

I calculated the ratio of longs vs. shorts:


PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
RoadTrain
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1372


View Profile
January 19, 2015, 07:07:41 AM
 #714

I'd be more comfortable if short covering was more dynamic, if short were squeezed Cheesy
But it seems buying pressure is very limited Undecided
molecular
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2436



View Profile
January 19, 2015, 07:18:10 AM
 #715

I'd be more comfortable if short covering was more dynamic, if short were squeezed Cheesy
But it seems buying pressure is very limited Undecided

short squeeze will not happen at these level imo.

we need to be patient

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
OgNasty
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2394


Irrational Exuberance


View Profile WWW
January 19, 2015, 09:43:39 PM
 #716

I'd be more comfortable if short covering was more dynamic, if short were squeezed Cheesy
But it seems buying pressure is very limited Undecided

short squeeze will not happen at these level imo.

we need to be patient

Yes, it seems people are expecting a short squeeze as the cause for a great rise...  Not really how it works.

BITSLER                 ▄███
               ▄████▀
             ▄████▀
           ▄████▀  ▄██▄
         ▄████▀    ▀████▄
       ▄████▀        ▀████▄
     ▄████▀            ▀████▄
   ▄████▀                ▀████▄
 ▄████▀ ▄████▄      ▄████▄ ▀████▄
█████   ██████      ██████   █████
 ▀████▄ ▀████▀      ▀████▀ ▄████▀
   ▀████▄                ▄████▀
     ▀████▄            ▄████▀
       ▀████▄        ▄████▀
         ▀████▄    ▄████▀
           ▀████▄▄████▀
             ▀██████▀
               ▀▀▀▀
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▄            
▄▄▄▄▀▀▀▀    ▄▄█▄▄ ▀▀▄         
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▄      
█  ▀▄▄  ▀█▀▀ ▄      ▀████   ▀▀▄   
█ █▄  ▀▄   ▀████       ▀▀ ▄██▄ ▀▀▄
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
█  ▀▀       ▀▄▄ ▀████      ▄▄▄▀▀▀  █
█            ▄ ▀▄    ▄▄▄▀▀▀   ▄▄  █
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
█ ▄▄   ███   ▀██  █           ▀▀  █ 
█ ███  ▀██       █        ▄▄      █ 
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀  
▀▄            █        ▀▀      █  
▀▀▄   ███▄  █   ▄▄          █   
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀    
▀▀▄   █   ▀▀▄▄▄▀▀▀         
▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄█▄▄▀▀▀▀              
              ▄▄▄██████▄▄▄
          ▄▄████████████████▄▄
        ▄██████▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀██████▄
▄     ▄█████▀             ▀█████▄
██▄▄ █████▀                ▀█████
 ████████            ▄██      █████
  ████████▄         ███▀       ████▄
  █████████▀▀     ▄███▀        █████
   █▀▀▀          █████         █████
     ▄▄▄         ████          █████
   █████          ▀▀           ████▀
    █████                     █████
     █████▄                 ▄█████
      ▀█████▄             ▄█████▀
        ▀██████▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄██████▀
          ▀▀████████████████▀▀
              ▀▀▀██████▀▀▀
            ▄▄▄███████▄▄▄
         ▄█▀▀▀ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ▀▀▀█▄
       █▀▀ ▄█████████████▄ ▀▀█
     █▀▀ ███████████████████ ▀▀█
    █▀ ███████████████████████ ▀█
   █▀ ███████████████▀▀ ███████ ▀█
 ▄█▀ ██████████████▀      ▀█████ ▀█▄
███ ███████████▀▀            ▀▀██ ███
███ ███████▀▀                     ███
███ ▀▀▀▀                          ███
▀██▄                             ▄██▀
  ▀█▄                            ▀▀
    █▄       █▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄█
     █▄      ▀█████████▀
      ▀█▄      ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
        ▀▀█▄▄  ▄▄▄
            ▀▀█████
[]
RoadTrain
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1372


View Profile
January 19, 2015, 09:47:02 PM
 #717

I'd be more comfortable if short covering was more dynamic, if short were squeezed Cheesy
But it seems buying pressure is very limited Undecided

short squeeze will not happen at these level imo.

we need to be patient

Yes, it seems people are expecting a short squeeze as the cause for a great rise...  Not really how it works.
Not necessarily a rise, more like a ride Cheesy Just want more volatility.
Coinfan
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 153


View Profile
January 21, 2015, 04:44:50 PM
 #718

I have been bearish during all 2014 (just check my posts) and I'm still bearish. The breach of the long term support showed on a logarithmitc charter (that starts at 2.23 usds and was breached at around 274 on Bitstamp) doesn't promise nothing good.

All, or almost all, of bitcoin's recoveries in price had been in V. That is, a sudden crash, with heavy panic selling, followed by a fast recovery that ends up as a V on a price chart. We haven't seen that yet. This recent recovery seems to be a retrace back. It might keep going up, perhaps to 250 or 260 (who knows, I doubt that, but can go up to touch again the breached trend line, now at about 285), but I'm betting on heavy lower lows. But don't take that on me alone. Check what some are posting at tradingview.com.

That isn't necessarily negative. It can be an almost once in a life time opportunity, if you wait for the right moment to go long. Bitcoin's fundamentals have never been so good (major adoption by retailers). In due time, there is a pretty good chance that price will go up like a missile. But first, probably, there will be much more blood and tears.

This scenario will be falsified if bitcoin goes up above 300 usds.


atlosas
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 244


View Profile
January 21, 2015, 05:46:02 PM
 #719

The bubble hasn't popped yet, we are yet to see capitulation stage i think.
poncho32
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 316


View Profile
January 23, 2015, 12:10:34 PM
 #720

I have been bearish during all 2014 (just check my posts) and I'm still bearish. The breach of the long term support showed on a logarithmitc charter (that starts at 2.23 usds and was breached at around 274 on Bitstamp) doesn't promise nothing good.

All, or almost all, of bitcoin's recoveries in price had been in V. That is, a sudden crash, with heavy panic selling, followed by a fast recovery that ends up as a V on a price chart. We haven't seen that yet. This recent recovery seems to be a retrace back. It might keep going up, perhaps to 250 or 260 (who knows, I doubt that, but can go up to touch again the breached trend line, now at about 285), but I'm betting on heavy lower lows. But don't take that on me alone. Check what some are posting at tradingview.com.

That isn't necessarily negative. It can be an almost once in a life time opportunity, if you wait for the right moment to go long. Bitcoin's fundamentals have never been so good (major adoption by retailers). In due time, there is a pretty good chance that price will go up like a missile. But first, probably, there will be much more blood and tears.

This scenario will be falsified if bitcoin goes up above 300 usds.




This price rise since the crash looks over to me. I'm guessing there will be another crash to lower lows soon.
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 [36] 37 38 39 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!