Date for 25 BTC per Block

[Fuzzy]

...close enough  


*is there like an alarm in your head for when someone is wrong on the internet? I swear I've never gotten a useful reply that quickly

[molecular]

*is there like an alarm in your head for when someone is wrong on the internet?

"Hey man."
"WHAT?"
"HEY MAN, YOU DEAF?"
"NO, BUT I'M GOING CRAZY: GOT THIS ALARM GOING OFF IN MY HEAD WHENEVER SOMEONE SAYS SOMETHING WRONG ON THE INTERNET"
"MAN, THAT'S GODDA BE LIKE... CONSTANTLY?!?"
"WHAT?!?"

[DeathAndTaxes]

[FreeMoney]

...close enough  


*is there like an alarm in your head for when someone is wrong on the internet? I swear I've never gotten a useful reply that quickly

That was a useful reply no?

[Fuzzy]

...close enough  


*is there like an alarm in your head for when someone is wrong on the internet? I swear I've never gotten a useful reply that quickly

That was a useful reply no?

Yes, and it's never happened that fast on the intertubes

[check_status]

Some people do use rss readers to keep track of their favorite threads on forums. You might understand when you use something like Liferea or RSSowl. When providing tech support to those in trouble, a feed reader is a must.

@D&T reply LOL

[FreeMoney]

...close enough  


*is there like an alarm in your head for when someone is wrong on the internet? I swear I've never gotten a useful reply that quickly

That was a useful reply no?

Yes, and it's never happened that fast on the intertubes

Oh, I misunderstood, thought you meant only bad replies come fast including this one. I get it now.

[Fuzzy]

Oh, I misunderstood, thought you meant only bad replies come fast including this one. I get it now.

Good point:

I swear I've never gotten a useful reply that quickly  

I swear I've never gotten a useful reply that quickly  

[molecular]

Oh, I misunderstood, thought you meant only bad replies come fast including this one. I get it now.

Good point:

I swear I've never gotten a useful reply that quickly  

I swear I've never gotten a useful reply that quickly  

Interesting, I read it the second way (as intended by the author). I didn't even consider the first possibility.

I wonder what exactly determines which way one reads it.

I'm also astonished that I didn't even realize there was ambiguity at all until quite a few posts later. I wonder how often this happens to me? Did you guys spot this from the beginning?

[FreeMoney]

Oh, I misunderstood, thought you meant only bad replies come fast including this one. I get it now.

Good point:

I swear I've never gotten a useful reply that quickly  

I swear I've never gotten a useful reply that quickly  

Interesting, I read it the second way (as intended by the author). I didn't even consider the first possibility.

I wonder what exactly determines which way one reads it.

I'm also astonished that I didn't even realize there was ambiguity at all until quite a few posts later. I wonder how often this happens to me? Did you guys spot this from the beginning?

Yeah, I didn't see the other reading at all until pointed out. I think if you know the person at all you probably pick the right reading automatically.

[Fuzzy]

Yeah, I didn't see the other reading at all until pointed out.

I imagine people read the bible the same way, completely oblivious to the authors true intention.

Thus is the folly of the written word.

[Stephen Gornick]

Update:

It's turning into quite a contest!

Well, that latest adjustment certainly moved the needle a bit.

At block 179,424 now, there are 212.15 days left presuming 10 minutes per block going forward until the adjustment.  That lands it at the beginning of the day, December 8th.

 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=312
 - http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-10k.png

[Raize]

As it stands, I see no reason why the difficulty is going to fall anytime soon with all the new FPGAs already ordered or coming online that will remain profitable even if the price drops to half of what it is now. I think it's pretty safe to say that if you think the price per coin is going to stay the same or rise then we'll see the date before December 9th, 2012 for sure.

On the other hand, if you think the price is going to drop sharply then difficulty could go down again as tons of GPU miners go offline. I don't personally see that happening anytime soon. We had a good 6 months of early-adopter GPU mining before the difficulty/price really started to explode around the 9 month mark and anyone could GPU mine easily. Even CPU mining became profitable again for a short while.

I think with the FPGAs we're going to see GPU mining start to die off and the difficulty rise well before the 25 BTC reward drop. The only thing I'm not certain of is if the price increases will be as sharp as they were last summer.

I think the only reason why the difficulty has dropped over the last month or so was the elimination of that botnet. It would seem that we've actually been increasing in difficulty steadily since January otherwise.

[Stephen Gornick]

I think it's pretty safe to say that if you think the price per coin is going to stay the same or rise then we'll see the date before December 9th, 2012 for sure.

Let's say the difficulty in December is up over 15% from here.

But to get there from here saw a 10% rise in the next adjustment, then a 8% drop in the one after, over and over for the next 14 adjustments remaining before block 210,000.

Even with the difficuly increasing, the date for 210,000 would be pushed later, past December 9th even I believe.  That is because the faster hashing burns through the calendar days on the way up and does not more than offset the death march that occurs on the calendar when trying to get to the next adjustment when hashing is below the difficulty level.

So it isn't just a question of will the difficulty be higher, but will it be volatile from one adjustment period to the next (on net, pushing the date further back), or will it be an even steady increase along the way ( pulling the date to be earlier ).

[runeks]

I have a script that projects what the date of the first 25 BTC block will be based on the current block rate. It's been doing it for the last month or so every day. It's currently somewhere between December 7th and 8th (times are GTM+1): http://pastebin.com/bTaEHADP

Script is here in case anyone's interested: http://pastebin.com/SnybcMKF

[Stephen Gornick]

At block 179,424 now, there are 212.15 days left presuming 10 minutes per block going forward until the adjustment.  That lands it at the beginning of the day, December 8th.

Heh, the last difficulty adjustment was down 8% and halfway through the next it is down about 4%.  So even though difficulty is higher than a month ago, the estimated arrival of block 210,000 (using the target of 144 blocks / day) has been pushed back, to middle of the day, December 9th, 2012.  

 - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHVRMHpqWUJValI1RlZiaEtCT1RrQmc

 - http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-10k.png

Bettors are still on the side of a Dec 9th or earlier arrival:
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=312

But looks like difficulty finally caught up to the BTC/USD and is stuck around these levels until either more efficient technology (including acquisition cost) arrives or the BTC/USD begins to move.

 - http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin.png

[swissmate]

I would consider it being before 9th of december according to my calculations.

[Stephen Gornick]

I would consider it being before 9th of december according to my calculations.

You know what happens in the future?

[runeks]

^ Don't you?

[swissmate]

I would consider it being before 9th of december according to my calculations.

You know what happens in the future?

No, I just know some basic maths.