Ryans' log

[RyNinDaCleM]

Well, my feeling of a higher correction was off to say the least...
Still, my projected count is holding beautifully. The divergence on the hourly is getting out of control and the 4hr still remains. There are a couple of options as to what the corrective move was. Since the drop today still looks corrective (3's not 5's) We could be seeing a running or expanded flat where B makes a lower low than the impulse. Or we could be seeing nested waves lower which could prove to be quite bad for knife catchers.

The top two shown here are the flats I'm referring to.


The over all chart I have been posting lately.


This is the possible close counts of the last few days The red is the nested waves I was talking about. The Blue is an irregular/expanding flat and Black is the running flat.


That last chart still holds around the same target for the bottom of the red extended 5th of C of (2) for the Bull count and the (1) of III of (C) for the Bear count.

Stay safe!

Edit:
Chart fix!

[Afrikoin]

Thanks for the post(s). Keeping my bull dreams alive. I'm expecting a rebound at 560. If that doesn't happen, i'll stay clear of hourly check ups.

[HeliKopterBen]

Pretty solid support around 530-550.

[Afrikoin]

Pretty solid support around 530-550.

Your solid 530 - 550 support combines well with this http://imgur.com/G1BNNpr On the 10 day (auto/hourly) chart candles. I'm guessing they cross somewhere??

Sorry for the poor capture.

[BuildTheFuture]

Perhaps of note is Huobi has already taken out its June 15th low.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Perhaps of note is Huobi has already taken out its June 15th low.

Thanks for pointing that out!

They seem to be in the same vicinity as stamp, however, there is a clearer bullish corrective picture there.


This is no guarantee that the a-b at the left side can't become a 1-2 of a larger degree, but it appears more Bullish than the western exchanges and even OKCoin

[seleme]

Ryan, if we fail from here, is it the GTFO moment?

[RyNinDaCleM]

Ryan, if we fail from here, is it the GTFO moment?

Not exactly!
I don't want to advise anyone on what to do with their coins. I don't like having that kind of pressure nor do I want to be blamed for a bad trade resulting in losses. I occasionally get my own and that's enough

That said, My chart that I have been updating for this whole drop has one more wave lower before I can make that sort of decision. I have been trading in/out for the last few days rather than holding a position since this is knife country and there isn't much indicating that anything more than a bounce has been right around the corner. This bounce appears to have one more wave up coming, then we will be into the final leg down for C (if Bullish correction) or (1) of (C) (if the Bear market continues in a larger C-wave) Once the next wave down completes, I will absolutely update with a new group of targets to look for along with invalidation points which will give clues as to which direction the next weeks-months will go.

Once bottomed in the next wave lower, if we fail to get anywhere significantly higher, THAT would be the GTFO moment. Don't panic during the drop because you can always expect a retrace to get out higher. Perhaps with losses, but less losses than if you happen to panic right before the market turns.

I hope this eases your worry!

[RyNinDaCleM]

I just want to throw out this quick chart.
I just noticed this on the stamp chart.



Correction might be complete!

[Raystonn]

And what would happen after this correction is complete?  I can't tell if you're talking about the correction to the long term bull market, the correction to the recent rally, or some other correction.  Depending on the time frame your words can be interpreted to mean anything.

[RyNinDaCleM]

And what would happen after this correction is complete?  I can't tell if you're talking about the correction to the long term bull market, the correction to the recent rally, or some other correction.  Depending on the time frame your words can be interpreted to mean anything.

The wave 4 correction. A correction to the correction



I know the timing of my drawn in lines for the targets are starting to diverge from the actual price action. I will remove these lines whenever the next wave down toward the gray box completes. I am merely showing that I have not altered any targets since I posted them, around the 23rd of July.


Edit: Just to clarify, The correction might be done. It can also turn out to be an A of a larger ABC. And as I said to seleme, there appears to be one more up, but this is on a tiny scale, so it's hard to determine with absolute certainty.

[Raystonn]

Sounds like you're speaking EW, and speculating we may be in for a wave down beyond $550 now.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Sounds like you're speaking EW, and speculating we may be in for a wave down beyond $550 now.

That is what this thread is about! I am showing how EW can be used as a trading tool. For the most part, The analysis contained within is solely based on EW and the Fibo relationships of those waves. This was never intended as a general TA thread. I only attempt to prove the merit of EW here.

Yes, the count implies another wave lower to complete either:
The C wave of the bullish correction to the rise from 420.27-683.26
OR
The wave-(1) of the large (C) wave should we continue in the bear market since December

[Raystonn]

Sounds like you're speaking EW, and speculating we may be in for a wave down beyond $550 now.

That is what this thread is about! I am showing how EW can be used as a trading tool. For the most part, The analysis contained within is solely based on EW and the Fibo relationships of those waves. This was never intended as a general TA thread. I only attempt to prove the merit of EW here.

Yes, the count implies another wave lower to complete either:
The C wave of the bullish correction to the rise from 420.27-683.26
OR
The wave-(1) of the large (C) wave should we continue in the bear market since December

EW can work absent large fundamental news.  But most technical analysis fails when some large event takes place.  For example, the COIN ETF opening up could generate a great deal of buying pressure right when you expect a wave down.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Sounds like you're speaking EW, and speculating we may be in for a wave down beyond $550 now.

That is what this thread is about! I am showing how EW can be used as a trading tool. For the most part, The analysis contained within is solely based on EW and the Fibo relationships of those waves. This was never intended as a general TA thread. I only attempt to prove the merit of EW here.

Yes, the count implies another wave lower to complete either:
The C wave of the bullish correction to the rise from 420.27-683.26
OR
The wave-(1) of the large (C) wave should we continue in the bear market since December

EW can work absent large fundamental news.  But most technical analysis fails when some large event takes place.  For example, the COIN ETF opening up could generate a great deal of buying pressure right when you expect a wave down.

OK!

[windjc]

And what would happen after this correction is complete?  I can't tell if you're talking about the correction to the long term bull market, the correction to the recent rally, or some other correction.  Depending on the time frame your words can be interpreted to mean anything.

The wave 4 correction. A correction to the correction



I know the timing of my drawn in lines for the targets are starting to diverge from the actual price action. I will remove these lines whenever the next wave down toward the gray box completes. I am merely showing that I have not altered any targets since I posted them, around the 23rd of July.


Edit: Just to clarify, The correction might be done. It can also turn out to be an A of a larger ABC. And as I said to seleme, there appears to be one more up, but this is on a tiny scale, so it's hard to determine with absolute certainty.

I have a question. In Wave 5 does the target have to go down to the 520 area or can the 5th Wave truncate higher? For instance at 540?

[RyNinDaCleM]

And what would happen after this correction is complete?  I can't tell if you're talking about the correction to the long term bull market, the correction to the recent rally, or some other correction.  Depending on the time frame your words can be interpreted to mean anything.

The wave 4 correction. A correction to the correction



I know the timing of my drawn in lines for the targets are starting to diverge from the actual price action. I will remove these lines whenever the next wave down toward the gray box completes. I am merely showing that I have not altered any targets since I posted them, around the 23rd of July.


Edit: Just to clarify, The correction might be done. It can also turn out to be an A of a larger ABC. And as I said to seleme, there appears to be one more up, but this is on a tiny scale, so it's hard to determine with absolute certainty.

I have a question. In Wave 5 does the target have to go down to the 520 area or can the 5th Wave truncate higher? For instance at 540?

It absolutely can truncate! Technically, a truncated 5th will not even make lower lows than the 3, so $540 will still be considered a complete, non-truncated 5th. The targets I provide are just typical Fibonacci support levels. These are obviously not concrete targets, just what you would normally expect. To find where a 5th could end, you would find the price difference between the beginning of 1 and the end of 3, then multiply by .618. Then add (or subtract in a down move) this to the end of 4.

Simple example: wave 1 starts at $1 and wave 3 ends at $4 = $3 difference.  Now lets say that 4 retraced back to $3.15.

3 x .618 = 1.854
3.15 + 1.854 = 5.004  This would be the typical 5th wave target.

[BuildTheFuture]

Ryan could you post some upside invalidation levels, thx.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Ryan could you post some upside invalidation levels, thx.

Sorry, I'm a little busy today!
Bitstamp has an invalidation at 607.90. We eeked that out for now, but lets see what happens. I have a count that has us completed with this impulse lower which I will post up when I get home (I'm on my phone right now). Hopefully I get home before anything serious happens :-S

[seleme]

Ryan, if we fail from here, is it the GTFO moment?

Not exactly!
I don't want to advise anyone on what to do with their coins. I don't like having that kind of pressure nor do I want to be blamed for a bad trade resulting in losses. I occasionally get my own and that's enough

That said, My chart that I have been updating for this whole drop has one more wave lower before I can make that sort of decision. I have been trading in/out for the last few days rather than holding a position since this is knife country and there isn't much indicating that anything more than a bounce has been right around the corner. This bounce appears to have one more wave up coming, then we will be into the final leg down for C (if Bullish correction) or (1) of (C) (if the Bear market continues in a larger C-wave) Once the next wave down completes, I will absolutely update with a new group of targets to look for along with invalidation points which will give clues as to which direction the next weeks-months will go.

Once bottomed in the next wave lower, if we fail to get anywhere significantly higher, THAT would be the GTFO moment. Don't panic during the drop because you can always expect a retrace to get out higher. Perhaps with losses, but less losses than if you happen to panic right before the market turns.

I hope this eases your worry!

thanks. not exactly the worry, I am not departing with my coins, just looking at good times for shorting my btc-e btc mt4.