Ryans' log

[windjc]

I think I'm following, but wave 1 of...what exactly?  What comes after $491?  Is the wave 2 a down wave that drops below the bottom of this one in your opinion?

I asked Ry for clarification of this as well. He said that this was 1 of 5 (of 5 of C).

So at the bottom of this 1, we would go up to 2, back down to 3 (I believe he guessed that would take us to maybe 400). Then bounce up to 4 and then a final 5 to potentially test the lows of 340 (bearish scenario).  Then these 5 would complete the 5th wave of C that Ry has been charting from the start of this entire thread.

Once C was complete we would be off to test ATHs on a larger III(3) wave up.  So that is the good news in this scenario.

In a nutshell, yes! Still, I do not have a target in the low $300's yet, but an ideal set up  (in EW terms) would have us testing and possibly breaking the $339 low. This is not a bad thing! It means that we had a healthy correction and can rebuild confidence to get back to the higher prices that so many here are looking forward to.

**Pat's self on back.

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[Schickeria]

Very interesting thread, though EWs are still looking like witchcraft to me. Could you recommend me some good literature about Elliot Waves, Ryan? It's a big gap in my education.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Very interesting thread, though EWs are still looking like witchcraft to me. Could you recommend me some good literature about Elliot Waves, Ryan? It's a big gap in my education.

Ryan, what's the best resource to read about EW?

This is a good starting point http://www.forexhit.com/learn-forex/elliott-wave-principle.html
This gets a little deeper http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm
This one will help with the most difficult part of EW... Corrections! http://www.fxtimes.com/education/elliott-wave-basics-variations-in-corrective-waves/

As with anything, it takes a lot of practice. I counted every chart I came across then counted it again. When you think you have it, you count it again. What I like to do, to confirm I have the best counts possible, is to count it out in a higher time frame for the basic structure, then go to a lower time frame to confirm that each of my waves has the proper fractals making it up and fractals of those. I also try to avoid the "modern" EW as much as possible. It is used because of leverage markets where you can see odd movements. But to me, it just feels like bending the rules to fit a chart that is difficult to count.

[Schickeria]

Thank you! 

[h3speros]

If I have understood correctly we don't have to go any lower to complete the 1, we could also start to go up to 2 from here?

[RyNinDaCleM]

If I have understood correctly we don't have to go any lower to complete the 1, we could also start to go up to 2 from here?

That's what I see! 490 is likely and 500 will be heavy resistance

[h3speros]

If I have understood correctly we don't have to go any lower to complete the 1, we could also start to go up to 2 from here?

That's what I see! 490 is likely and 500 will be heavy resistance

now we are stuck in between these walls, how this will change things? we have bigger bounce to +500 or deeper breakout to the downside? can we still be in the process of completing 1?

[Schickeria]

Hey Ryan! After studying your linked articles a bit, I ordered some additional lecture. This topic is very complex, but also very interesting!

Could you do me a favour, and show me only the mayor waves since 2013 to get a better perspective over the total picture? I tried it without success.

Meaning this time frame:



Furthermore:

Is this valid? (likely not, but DON'T LAUGH!  )



I will delete the images later to keep the thread clean.

[RyNinDaCleM]

If I have understood correctly we don't have to go any lower to complete the 1, we could also start to go up to 2 from here?

That's what I see! 490 is likely and 500 will be heavy resistance

now we are stuck in between these walls, how this will change things? we have bigger bounce to +500 or deeper breakout to the downside? can we still be in the process of completing 1?

The walls have no real bearing on the waves. For now, everything will continue forward with the same target.

Hey Ryan! After studying your linked articles a bit, I ordered some additional lecture. This topic very complex, but also very interesting!

Could you do me a favour, and show me only the mayor waves since 2013 to get a better perspective over the total picture? I tried it without success.

Meaning this time frame:



Furthermore:

Is this valid? (likely not, but DON'T LAUGH!  )



I will delete the images later to keep the thread clean.

Feel free to leave them since this is a learning thread
I will comment more on your chart when I'm not using my phone to check it out. Until then, I can post the chart you requested.

The red is my current count. The black is an alternate count that is only confirmed a few years from now when we have a few more big bubbles, OR if we break below the April '13 high of $266

[Schickeria]

Feel free to leave them since this is a learning thread
I will comment more on your chart when I'm not using my phone to check it out. Until then, I can post the chart you requested.

Okay.  

I'm captivated and the eBook I bought looks really good. I will study EWs (the basics) in the coming weeks/months. Keep this thread alive please. I surely have a lot questions and if you agree I will analyze a few of the past patterns, after my basic studies, and you could correct me where I'm wrong.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Just got to my computer and this price action over the last two days feels a lot more like sideways as opposed to completing a weak wave-v followed by a weak 2. So I propose another possible count for this indecision we seem to be in.


This has a lower target for v and still has us going to ~$490 for the corrective 2. I was talking about the EWO in my last update and how it swayed me to the side that we were still in the iv... Well it is still coiling around zero which now has me thinking we are still in the iv.

[XCASH]

Do you think it could continue sideways for another week or two?

[RyNinDaCleM]

Furthermore:

Is this valid? (likely not, but DON'T LAUGH!  )

First, I wouldn't laugh... It's not an easy thing to pick up in a couple of days.
Secondly, you need to keep the price scale in the screen shot. This helps others to identify the idea you are trying to convey and allows everyone to see the relative movements a little easier.

Your count is not valid because the 3 would end up being the shortest wave. This is not allowed. One other thing is that you wouldn't normally assume an ending diagonal as the count because these are relatively rare and usually only noticeable after they are well established. Instead, if you have overlapping waves in the direction of the larger trend, count them as nested waves (aka extensions), see the red count that I replied back to you earlier. It also appears that your 3 is only 3 waves. 3 wave moves are corrective.

Don't get discouraged! It takes time to learn EW. Just keep counting and ask anytime you get stuck. I will keep this thread running for a while, so don't worry about that, and I will critique your counts any time you want me to.

Do you think it could continue sideways for another week or two?

Not likely! I give it another day or two at the most but it will come back to these prices for a few days.

[XCASH]

Do you think it could continue sideways for another week or two?

Not likely! I give it another day or two at the most but it will come back to these prices for a few days.

I'm completely new to EW, so I cannot understand the technical details of the discussion yet.

Do you think bitcoin's price will go up or down in another day or two?

[RyNinDaCleM]

Do you think it could continue sideways for another week or two?

Not likely! I give it another day or two at the most but it will come back to these prices for a few days.

I'm completely new to EW, so I cannot understand the technical details of the discussion yet.

Do you think bitcoin's price will go up or down in another day or two?

If you take the chart from my update a few posts ago, the path would be something like this


This thread isn't meant to be trading advice, but more of a tutorial with visual aids as we progress through counts.
The chart above may be the correct count, but the price won't necessarily follow the red line exactly, but the targets are given to show the general direction and price to look for. These targets are based on typical Fibonacci relationships to the waves preceding the target. This is not guaranteed, but it has a very good success rate

[h3speros]

Quick update because I has ribs on the fire 

For a bit there I was a little torn as to whether or nor we were still in the iv or if the 1 was complete with a short v. The EWO hinted toward the iv so the lower target remains and I've added the next target to look for. The wave-2 target is in the red box. I'm going to try this out when I post the same chart during the progress of a cycle. Red targets will be the new or next target to look for.



This drop will complete the 1 as shown by the divergence in the EWO. Without a huge spike and subsequent wall to suppress the price lower, the divergence will lock in and we will get our rise back to the $490's.

Good luck!

seems like this count was more valid after all?

[RyNinDaCleM]

Quick update because I has ribs on the fire 

For a bit there I was a little torn as to whether or nor we were still in the iv or if the 1 was complete with a short v. The EWO hinted toward the iv so the lower target remains and I've added the next target to look for. The wave-2 target is in the red box. I'm going to try this out when I post the same chart during the progress of a cycle. Red targets will be the new or next target to look for.



This drop will complete the 1 as shown by the divergence in the EWO. Without a huge spike and subsequent wall to suppress the price lower, the divergence will lock in and we will get our rise back to the $490's.

Good luck!

seems like this count was more valid after all?

Yep! The triangle chart was just another option
I will get an update out in a little while with some new targets

[h3speros]

Quick update because I has ribs on the fire 

For a bit there I was a little torn as to whether or nor we were still in the iv or if the 1 was complete with a short v. The EWO hinted toward the iv so the lower target remains and I've added the next target to look for. The wave-2 target is in the red box. I'm going to try this out when I post the same chart during the progress of a cycle. Red targets will be the new or next target to look for.



This drop will complete the 1 as shown by the divergence in the EWO. Without a huge spike and subsequent wall to suppress the price lower, the divergence will lock in and we will get our rise back to the $490's.

Good luck!

seems like this count was more valid after all?

Yep! The triangle chart was just another option
I will get an update out in a little while with some new targets

thanks =)

[RyNinDaCleM]

Indeed my initial count was the better count. The target was hit but it looks like a iii of C of 2 right now.


The triangle that I posted yesterday turned out to be the B wave of the 2 instead of the iv of 1.

This C of 2 could have one more wave to it, possibly breaking 500 (with an actual target around $498.45), but it should find some fairly strong resistance around $500. Invalidation of this short term wave 2 is at $514.98.

The over-all picture is still quite Bearish at the moment. We are in one of those situations again, where a Bullish count would require many extensions higher to even consider a Bullish impulse. This rise still appears to be corrective to the larger downtrend.

[twiifm]

Indeed my initial count was the better count. The target was hit but it looks like a iii of C of 2 right now.


The triangle that I posted yesterday turned out to be the B wave of the 2 instead of the iv of 1.

This C of 2 could have one more wave to it, possibly breaking 500 (with an actual target around $498.45), but it should find some fairly strong resistance around $500. Invalidation of this short term wave 2 is at $514.98.

The over-all picture is still quite Bearish at the moment. We are in one of those situations again, where a Bullish count would require many extensions higher to even consider a Bullish impulse. This rise still appears to be corrective to the larger downtrend.

Man you are pretty good at analysis.  Do you trade anything aside from BTC?