Ryans' log

[Raystonn]

If we hit the target at iii, where does EW take us after that?

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[RyNinDaCleM]

If we hit the target at iii, where does EW take us after that?

If you are referring to the (iii) in the box, then back up around $465 for (iv) and down in the (v). The further out you go with targets, the less accurate they potentially get, so I like to keep it to the next 1-3 waves depending on what wave we are in at the time.

[Raystonn]

If we hit the target at iii, where does EW take us after that?

If you are referring to the (iii) in the box, then back up around $465 for (iv) and down in the (v). The further out you go with targets, the less accurate they potentially get, so I like to keep it to the next 1-3 waves depending on what wave we are in at the time.

Thanks.  What's your latest target for (v)?

[RyNinDaCleM]

If we hit the target at iii, where does EW take us after that?

If you are referring to the (iii) in the box, then back up around $465 for (iv) and down in the (v). The further out you go with targets, the less accurate they potentially get, so I like to keep it to the next 1-3 waves depending on what wave we are in at the time.

Thanks.  What's your latest target for (v)?

This is really the best I can do without knowing the actual ending points of (iii) and (iv)

The bottom of 3 of V could fall anywhere between 1.618x the wave-1 at the lower end to 0.618x the gross of (i) - (iii) then take that off the end of (iv). So I just projected it using typical points. It has the possibility of a lot of variance until the next two waves are set in.

[Raystonn]

Thanks.  Is that the end then of the downtrend per EW?  We proceed with a rally after that?

[RyNinDaCleM]

Thanks.  Is that the end then of the downtrend per EW?  We proceed with a rally after that?

That is the bottom of 3 of V of (C) OR 3 of (5) of III of (C). Which one it is will have to be determined later. Obviously the latter is more bearish and drawn out. As of right now, my more likely count is that we are in the V of (C), so nearing the bottom soon. But like I said, I won't know until I have more data to make a better analysis of the situation down there.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I would like to post an update on a previous count I had. With divergences in underlying indicators, this count could come to fruition. It now has a complete B and if the C is held below the wave-I low at $538.38, it would simply be a revision to my current count just like I would do if we were to invalidate one of my counts. As labeled, this count is very bearish, but it can still be counted as III/IV as long as it doesn't pass the wave-I low.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Main count invalidated for the wave-V. The chart from my last post is still valid and this is a refined version with invalidations and targets


If this count is to be, the 1 of c of IV/(iv) looks to be topping right now. Otherwise, another count has us still in the 2 of V. I'll have to get that chart together first. The above chart now looks better given the Bullish divergences that are present along with some actual Bullish momentum that we've seen today.
I'll post up that other chart as soon as I get it ready.

Good day!

[CoinBurner]

Thanks for the excellent analysis as always!
When I first came across the EW theory (just a few months ago  ) , I had the impression that the individual analyst intuition had to play a major role in wave labeling and identification of waves personalities.
Your methodology however seems to also make use of an extremely rigorous mathematical analysis, with several different counts and sub-counts, strict invalidation levels, etc... it seems a huge amount of work, especially when you start to go deep in the sub-sub-waves counts!! 
So my question is - how big a role do experience and intuition play [if any] in the EW analyst work? Is there a point after which you can start to "read" wave counts and select the most likely one out of many, prior that strict invalidation levels come into play?

[RyNinDaCleM]

Thanks for the excellent analysis as always!
When I first came across the EW theory (just a few months ago  ) , I had the impression that the individual analyst intuition had to play a major role in wave labeling and identification of waves personalities.
Your methodology however seems to also make use of an extremely rigorous mathematical analysis, with several different counts and sub-counts, strict invalidation levels, etc... it seems a huge amount of work, especially when you start to go deep in the sub-sub-waves counts!!  
So my question is - how big a role do experience and intuition play [if any] in the EW analyst work? Is there a point after which you can start to "read" wave counts and select the most likely one out of many, prior that strict invalidation levels come into play?

I'm trying to answer each point in order here...

Experience plays a huge role in counting waves. It's relatively easy to do, but some other factors go into choosing more and less probable counts. There are three simple rules to EW; 1)Wave-2 can not retrace more than 100% of wave-1. 2) Wave-3 is never the shortest wave. and 3) Wave-4 can not retrace into the price territory of wave-1. If you strictly adhere to these rules, it's not so hard. Then there are also a handful of guide lines that make things clearer, though the guide lines are not rules, but more often than not, waves follow the guide lines. Things like Alternation; Says that if wave-2 is a sharp correction, wave-4 will be more sideways and vice versa.
Fibonacci makes the targets a piece of cake as long as you have the right count. For instance, My previous wave-V count was invalidated, but since my targets were hit leading up to the invalidation, the latter waves were counted properly, but something else was amiss. That is when I revise my count and decide where things changed. Some counts/targets can also be correct but take vastly different paths to get there, which is why I have many running counts at any given time.

Intuition should be left out, as difficult as it may be. It is the same as a gut feeling, and while you may be right some, or even most times, it's no different than a guess. EW is a way to gauge probabilities and manage risk by having stops (which I will get into soon). It also tells you what is possible and what is impossible to happen next.

When you have many counts, you begin to see a move coming before it is even expected by your main count. I posted the chart in post #248 because of the underlying technicals and some other things going on. I guess you can say it was intuition, but I felt a change coming that was going to invalidate my count at the time, so I posted the chart. In fact, that is what I use this thread for. Kind of a "thinking out loud" of my thoughts (counts) as the market moves.

I hope I covered everything and answered your question.

[Schickeria]

Ryan, your cultists are waiting and are getting nervous. Post more heroine! 

[RyNinDaCleM]

I forgot to post this count last night. I said I would, so here it is...
This is the 1/2 count. The 2 has (at this point, anyway) stopped just short of hitting the 61.8% Fibo retracement which is typical of a 2nd wave. If this short term rally gets snuffed out here, then the next target lower will be around $400.


Declining volumes since this rise started and now hidden bearish divergence on the 4hr EWO makes this a likely candidate to take the place of the previously invalidated bear count.

Some other things to note; The Daily MACD still does not show divergence. We will either get a nice rise further here to make a decent high in the MACD before falling again to create the divergence or we will continue down in a few more waves before having another bounce to get the same type of situation that I just described. Either way, I'm not convinced of a sustained rally here until I get divergence on a longer period bar.  It looks more like a standard counter trend rally or "Suckers rally".

[CoinBurner]

I'm trying to answer each point in order here...

Experience plays a huge role in counting waves. It's relatively easy to do, but some other factors go into choosing more and less probable counts. There are three simple rules to EW; 1)Wave-2 can not retrace more than 100% of wave-1. 2) Wave-3 is never the shortest wave. and 3) Wave-4 can not retrace into the price territory of wave-1. If you strictly adhere to these rules, it's not so hard. Then there are also a handful of guide lines that make things clearer, though the guide lines are not rules, but more often than not, waves follow the guide lines. Things like Alternation; Says that if wave-2 is a sharp correction, wave-4 will be more sideways and vice versa.
Fibonacci makes the targets a piece of cake as long as you have the right count. For instance, My previous wave-V count was invalidated, but since my targets were hit leading up to the invalidation, the latter waves were counted properly, but something else was amiss. That is when I revise my count and decide where things changed. Some counts/targets can also be correct but take vastly different paths to get there, which is why I have many running counts at any given time.

Intuition should be left out, as difficult as it may be. It is the same as a gut feeling, and while you may be right some, or even most times, it's no different than a guess. EW is a way to gauge probabilities and manage risk by having stops (which I will get into soon). It also tells you what is possible and what is impossible to happen next.

When you have many counts, you begin to see a move coming before it is even expected by your main count. I posted the chart in post #248 because of the underlying technicals and some other things going on. I guess you can say it was intuition, but I felt a change coming that was going to invalidate my count at the time, so I posted the chart. In fact, that is what I use this thread for. Kind of a "thinking out loud" of my thoughts (counts) as the market moves.

I hope I covered everything and answered your question.

thanks for the very detailed explanation ! this makes a lot of sense indeed. Also from what I understand a very important tool in your analysis are oscillators (e.g. EWO and/or MACD), the correct interpretation of which still seems like black magic to me    Anyway keep up the great work !!

[RyNinDaCleM]

I'm trying to answer each point in order here...

Experience plays a huge role in counting waves. It's relatively easy to do, but some other factors go into choosing more and less probable counts. There are three simple rules to EW; 1)Wave-2 can not retrace more than 100% of wave-1. 2) Wave-3 is never the shortest wave. and 3) Wave-4 can not retrace into the price territory of wave-1. If you strictly adhere to these rules, it's not so hard. Then there are also a handful of guide lines that make things clearer, though the guide lines are not rules, but more often than not, waves follow the guide lines. Things like Alternation; Says that if wave-2 is a sharp correction, wave-4 will be more sideways and vice versa.
Fibonacci makes the targets a piece of cake as long as you have the right count. For instance, My previous wave-V count was invalidated, but since my targets were hit leading up to the invalidation, the latter waves were counted properly, but something else was amiss. That is when I revise my count and decide where things changed. Some counts/targets can also be correct but take vastly different paths to get there, which is why I have many running counts at any given time.

Intuition should be left out, as difficult as it may be. It is the same as a gut feeling, and while you may be right some, or even most times, it's no different than a guess. EW is a way to gauge probabilities and manage risk by having stops (which I will get into soon). It also tells you what is possible and what is impossible to happen next.

When you have many counts, you begin to see a move coming before it is even expected by your main count. I posted the chart in post #248 because of the underlying technicals and some other things going on. I guess you can say it was intuition, but I felt a change coming that was going to invalidate my count at the time, so I posted the chart. In fact, that is what I use this thread for. Kind of a "thinking out loud" of my thoughts (counts) as the market moves.

I hope I covered everything and answered your question.

thanks for the very detailed explanation ! this makes a lot of sense indeed. Also from what I understand a very important tool in your analysis are oscillators (e.g. EWO and/or MACD), the correct interpretation of which still seems like black magic to me    Anyway keep up the great work !!

Let me explain this a little. Indicators such as MACD and EWO are momentum indicators and RSI is a strength indicator (it's in the name )

As the price is rising through wave 1, the market is hesitant about a rise, so selling pressure is still present and early buying pressure is beginning to show itself. This creates a small bump in the underlying indicators.

Then wave-2 starts and people who think it's only a correction sell hard. This is why wave-2's are usually much deeper corrections. This also makes the indicators return to where they came for the most part.

Enter wave-3.. This is where many people begin to see the buying pressure, and in fear of missing the train they panic buy "before it's too late". The causes a large spike in the indicators and is resposible for the massive power of 3rd waves.

Wave-4 begins, and with a reluctance to sell, the market meanders sideways for a while. Sometimes twice as long (in time) as the wave-2. The stability makes some less experienced traders sell, and the lack of buying (after all, we must be at the top, right?) allows the indicators to return to a more neutral state, EWO returns to the zero line which by this point, is way down there.

Once we break  up from the 4th wave, those who sold are essentially tricked into buying back. By this point, asks are pulled in search of higher selling points. The price moves very easily with much less force, and the volumes are much lower compared to the 3rd wave. This keeps the indicators from making that big spike we saw in the 3rd wave. That combined with the lower starting point and weaker momentum creates the divergence that signals a topping situation (higher price high with lower indicator high). Then when the smart money has squoze all they can from this run, they hammer the price lower in the larger degree wave-II and it all cycles like that... In both directions, over and over and over...

[seleme]

You should make that post bold as it is "The market in few words" for all newcomers to read.

[femmecoins]

You should make that post bold as it is "The market in few words" for all newcomers to read.

I think he's probably spent enough time with his excellent analysis without you pulling him up on cosmetics.

Kudos and keep up the great work Ryan. Your effort is much appreciated.

[CoinBurner]

Let me explain this a little. Indicators such as MACD and EWO are momentum indicators and RSI is a strength indicator (it's in the name )

As the price is rising through wave 1, the market is hesitant about a rise, so selling pressure is still present and early buying pressure is beginning to show itself. This creates a small bump in the underlying indicators.

Then wave-2 starts and people who think it's only a correction sell hard. This is why wave-2's are usually much deeper corrections. This also makes the indicators return to where they came for the most part.

Enter wave-3.. This is where many people begin to see the buying pressure, and in fear of missing the train they panic buy "before it's too late". The causes a large spike in the indicators and is resposible for the massive power of 3rd waves.

Wave-4 begins, and with a reluctance to sell, the market meanders sideways for a while. Sometimes twice as long (in time) as the wave-2. The stability makes some less experienced traders sell, and the lack of buying (after all, we must be at the top, right?) allows the indicators to return to a more neutral state, EWO returns to the zero line which by this point, is way down there.

Once we break  up from the 4th wave, those who sold are essentially tricked into buying back. By this point, asks are pulled in search of higher selling points. The price moves very easily with much less force, and the volumes are much lower compared to the 3rd wave. This keeps the indicators from making that big spike we saw in the 3rd wave. That combined with the lower starting point and weaker momentum creates the divergence that signals a topping situation (higher price high with lower indicator high). Then when the smart money has squoze all they can from this run, they hammer the price lower in the larger degree wave-II and it all cycles like that... In both directions, over and over and over...

great explanation of such a complex topic in connection with crowd psychology also... I can identify myself in almost every step you described, from "buy buy buy before it's too late" to "sell sell sell we're going down hard" phase 
now let's see if I can make sense of the current situation: the 3-wave move from the 456.3 bottom to 492 has to be corrective in any case, since the recent downtrend from 492 to ~470 produced wave overlap and invalidated a possible impulse (3rd EW rule...). If the correction is not finished yet, this first 3-waver could become the first wave of a bigger correction; if on the other hand we are done correcting, the current downtrend could be:

i of 3 of V of (C) - quite bearish
i of (v) of III of (C) - ultra bearish!! 

exciting times ahead 

[RyNinDaCleM]

If the correction is not finished yet, this first 3-waver could become the first wave of a bigger correction; if on the other hand we are done correcting, the current downtrend could be:

i of 3 of V of (C) - quite bearish
i of (v) of III of (C) - ultra bearish!!  

exciting times ahead  

You catch on quick! That is exactly the situation. (I accidentally deleted the part about this rise being potentially a larger A wave which is also correct)

Edit:
I added the other part I was replying to.
I was on my phone earlier, so it was a pain in the butt to re-quote and retype my reply.

[h3speros]

you guys have hunch about the next small top when last one was 492? looks like we are not breaking 500...

[adamstgBit]

you guys have hunch about the next small top when last one was 492? looks like we are not breaking 500...

falling is that you?