Ryans' log

[RyNinDaCleM]

Thanks for the feedback on the issues at hand, but I am going to have to delete a few posts just to limit the argumentative text so we can focus on the the more important things. Nothing personal, to those who's posts I delete, just trying to keep it on topic

Bitstamp had 5  waves lower and 3 waves up nearly making it to the 61.8% retrace of the 5 down. There is nothing currently that tells me this rise is impulsive. Even more so because of the ending diagonal. So, for now, I leave a chart with another nested 1 down making the count either (i) of 3 of V and we are in the (ii) (nearing the top if it's not already in) OR (i) of 3 of (5) of III and we are in the (ii) (same situation as the other)
[img]

Edit:
On second thought, I'll just leave the posts, but try to keep it OT, thanks!

Thanks for the update, much appreciated as always.

Care to give a very brief rundown on what "study subgraph difference" is? A quick Google search gives me the idea it might be a MACD-like momentum indicator, but based on Hull MA instead of SMA/EMA? Yes/No?

Study subgraph is just a generic term for one of the custom indicators (called studies in Sierrachart). Difference is exactly as it sounds... It's the difference between two inputs of choice. In this case, it's the difference between two moving averages.
This can also be done using MACD and the histogram would act as the "Difference".

[RyNinDaCleM]

If the ending diagonal is the wrong assumption, There is one more up to come.

This will move the target in my update up by a negligible amount.

[Tzupy]

Sometimes it's difficult to see the forest because of the trees. Here is my favorite wave C count:

[RyNinDaCleM]

Sometimes it's difficult to see the forest because of the trees. Here is my favorite wave C count:

There's a lot of overlap in that count
So we're on our way to 535 by your chart?

[Tzupy]

The 535 (534 to be correct) happened on August 21st.

I thought that the bulls will be able to test something higher, but they seem weak, and time is running out for them.

[RyNinDaCleM]

The 535 (534 to be correct) happened on August 21st.

Oh, ok
You snipped all the dates off the bottom of your chart, so I had no points of reference.

[Queeq]

Do you mean ending diagonal in wave C here? But they only happen in 5th, C must be impulse.

Edit: Looking at it now it may be C with extended third.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Do you mean ending diagonal in wave C here? But they only happen in 5th, C must be impulse.

Edit: Looking at it now it may be C with extended third.

An ending diagonal can be a 5th or the final C of a correction. I was talking about the c of (ii).
I also posted a chart a little bit later that had the extended 3 count

If the ending diagonal is the wrong assumption, There is one more up to come.

This will move the target in my update up by a negligible amount.

[Queeq]

Oops, my bad. Rechecked my knowledge. C could indeed be ending diagonal.

[phoenix1]

Ryan, if this is a corrective c of (ii), would the low of iv overlapping the high of i on the 10 min chart you posted invalidate the 'one more leg up' count and lean back into your 'ending diagonal' scenario where we have already peaked?
I am a little confused as to what the rules are in a corrective pattern

[RyNinDaCleM]

Ryan, if this is a corrective c of (ii), would the low of iv overlapping the high of i on the 10 min chart you posted invalidate the 'one more leg up' count and lean back into your 'ending diagonal' scenario where we have already peaked?
I am a little confused as to what the rules are in a corrective pattern

A wave-C holds the same rules as any impulse. 4 can not overlap 1. On that note, my iv is $0.28 above the top of my i. If we do get overlap before a new high, then yes it does invalidate the extended 3 count and the ending diagonal is still in play. However, we could get overlap and still get higher highs if it were to make a larger diagonal instead of the one I drew out in the first chart today.

[phoenix1]

Thanks, that's what I thought, but it's crystal clear now  
Seems like time-wise, the ending diagonal would start to be not so diagonal if it pushed to a new high from here though - it would be starting to expand

EDIT : I guess at that point, it would just turn into a regular impulse c with an extended iii ...

[Odalv]

Ryan, is it possible that I'll buy bitcoins at $380/BTC in next 2 weeks and sell them at $1600/BTC at the end of this year ?

[RyNinDaCleM]

Ryan, is it possible that I'll buy bitcoins at $380/BTC in next 2 weeks and sell them at $1600/BTC at the end of this year ?

Sorry, but that is a question I cannot answer at this time

[Odalv]

Ryan, is it possible that I'll buy bitcoins at $380/BTC in next 2 weeks and sell them at $1600/BTC at the end of this year ?

Sorry, but that is a question I cannot answer at this time

... I'm sure it is one of 1,000,000 possibilities.

[canibalbranco]

Ryan, is it possible that I'll buy bitcoins at $380/BTC in next 2 weeks and sell them at $1600/BTC at the end of this year ?

Sorry, but that is a question I cannot answer at this time

You can not reply using the interpretation of the graph, ok.
But what is your feeling about it? Could you tell us?
Thank you!

[RyNinDaCleM]

Quick update;
That count is all over the place, so I revised it since we did get both overlap of the iv/i and a higher high after that. This moves the potential upside target up a little and because of this, moves the wave-(iii) target up a little. Labeled as a WXY (complex correction) which consists of a series of ABC's, each one making new price extremes over the last. This correction could be complete, but I added the extended target because it is possible while still locking in the divergence on the hourly time frame.


The commas are the lowest degree abc's and the w-x is lower than the (w)-(x)-(y)

[Schickeria]

/Push

Ryn! You don't like your fans anymore? 

[h3speros]

/Push

Ryn! You don't like your fans anymore?  

Are you kidding? You guys keep me coming back!!
All the sideways... Now that we are moving, I will get something posted in a few

...mins, hours, days? shall i go to sleep or wait?=D

[RyNinDaCleM]

An interesting chart before us at the moment. It's a difficult one to analyze, but I think I have something for ya.

In this first chart, I have an expanding leading diagonal. Every down tick is a clear 5 waver, and the upticks are clear 3 wavers. Combined with the overlap throughout, I think this is a likely scenario. The target to look for would be iii at ~$446. A more bearish view would have all these overlapping waves as nested waves, but I won't go there until we get huge extensions lower


I also have a zoomed in chart with the smaller subwaves penciled in. I had to use higher degree labels than the chart above since I'm running out The weakness in the move shows in the EWO and the ill formed waves lower. It appears what we are looking at is nested 1/2's of iii (building toward the target in the chart above) since we keep getting lower lows on the EWO for the larger waves.


Eat it!

Edit in bold