RyNinDaCleM (OP)
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Legen -wait for it- dary
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September 23, 2014, 09:13:53 PM |
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How did you know it's B and not 1st wave (leading diagonal) down?
The biggest sign is that it has now retraced more than 100%  Unless I'm misunderstanding what waves you are talking about |
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RyNinDaCleM (OP)
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September 24, 2014, 12:04:19 AM |
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Having fun now??  The bulls have been looking for a reason to buy. Someone finally gave them that reason, and in a reactionary panic, they created this mess.  We should still see one more up to complete the C (target in the chart) since the 3 extended a lot. The ABC chart from yesterday;  I do not believe the bear market is over yet. I will make a few posts tonight with my reasoning on that... I think this was just someone taking advantage of those sitting and waiting for their next chance to buy and he got them to bite. |
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RyNinDaCleM (OP)
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Legen -wait for it- dary
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September 24, 2014, 12:23:48 AM |
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 In the chart above, ignore the count for now. What we're looking at here is the 4 hr EWO. The large gray box has a big return to zero that signifies a 4th wave of some degree. This is good, because it tells me I'm on track with my counts, however, notice the wave-1 after the triangle broke down. Divergence...Check! Now look at the wave 3 that we are working on. It still needs a 5th wave to complete the 3 and produce the divergence needed (blue dotted line) to call the bottom of 3. Then we need a 5th of 5th wave to complete the bear market. This will show divergence on a higher time frame such as Daily or the 720 minute chart.  I also feel that once that 5th of 5th completes, it will not show a divergence in this chart. I could be wrong since it's got a lot of time to make it happen, but I don't see it. This can mean that we are still in the wave-III and have a lot more to go. Time will tell on this one, but the top remarks are still my analysis of the current situation. More to come if I have other thoughts to add |
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seleme
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Duelbits.com
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September 24, 2014, 02:10:36 AM |
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Lot more to go where? Down?
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RyNinDaCleM (OP)
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September 24, 2014, 02:32:17 AM |
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Lot more to go where? Down?
If we are still in the III of (C), then yes. A lot further down to go. This is because we would have another batch of waves with subwaves and extensions of those waves.... That isn't my top count currently, but it is always in the back of my mind since about the mid $500's. Lets focus on this count, before we worry about further drops. One step at a time.   |
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myself
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chaos is fun...…damental :)
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September 24, 2014, 05:03:29 AM |
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that fibo projection can be a excellent H&S
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Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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RyNinDaCleM (OP)
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Legen -wait for it- dary
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September 24, 2014, 05:30:13 AM |
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Not sure if myself is talking about this one or not  But it can lead into this one   Which can lead into this one  At which time, I will kiss Bitcoin goodbye  No no no... Not good buyAlright, that was all a joke, but the first one is the one I think he was talking about. |
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akujin
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September 24, 2014, 05:38:25 AM |
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BTC: 165rKPfGJ3ndrG1QziHR6ACnViP4EQHNK7
LTC: LMysGMFjmF9gR9RzStij74msXrDP1NqW8X
DOGE: DRZXGgcKN8kANwko3VycsBVVGqfy6XsSpM
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JustAnotherSheep
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September 24, 2014, 06:57:17 AM |
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What about   |
Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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RyNinDaCleM (OP)
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Legen -wait for it- dary
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September 24, 2014, 07:08:51 AM |
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zby
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September 24, 2014, 07:36:07 AM |
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Degrees in the charts are meaningless - the x axis is not comparable to the y axis. |
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Tzupy
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September 24, 2014, 09:27:10 AM |
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RyNinDaCleM would you mind elaborating on that unbelievably (for me, and I'm a bear!) bearish scenario. Do you mean that if long term support at 340$ will be broken (and I believe it will be), then what follows might be a death spiral? Months ago I made this prediction, and I was called insane for making it: Tzupy, what's your ~ target for bottom of Wave C at this time? Between 80$ (harsh scenario, 2011 like) and 300$ (mild scenario, 2013 like), Gox prices. |
Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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RyNinDaCleM (OP)
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Legen -wait for it- dary
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September 24, 2014, 11:39:49 AM |
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RyNinDaCleM would you mind elaborating on that unbelievably (for me, and I'm a bear!) bearish scenario. Do you mean that if long term support at 340$ will be broken (and I believe it will be), then what follows might be a death spiral? Months ago I made this prediction, and I was called insane for making it: Tzupy, what's your ~ target for bottom of Wave C at this time? Between 80$ (harsh scenario, 2011 like) and 300$ (mild scenario, 2013 like), Gox prices. If $339 is broken, it does not automatically mean we go to double digits. It really depends on the count and how the indicators look when we get there. Also what the following waves do after that. If we break $339, have a valid 5 waves down, divergence in EWO (and some other indicators) on a higher time frame such as Daily, get good (and I mean pretty heavy) volume to get a strong rejection of further breakdown in price, and get a good rebound in groups of 5 waves up, then there is a pretty good chance that the bottom is in. Whew, that's a lot of stipulations, right? Well, you want to be damn sure. If what we see is volume that's meh, lower lows on indicators and a rise similar to that of May-early June, It doesn't matter if there is a completed 5 waver down, there is likely more to come. At that point, it's time to refer to old support levels, Fibo and looking for the next completed 5 waves down to find a bottom. So, between 80 and 300 is a big range, but a lot is possible right now. |
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canibalbranco
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September 24, 2014, 12:10:24 PM |
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RyNinDaCleM would you mind elaborating on that unbelievably (for me, and I'm a bear!) bearish scenario. Do you mean that if long term support at 340$ will be broken (and I believe it will be), then what follows might be a death spiral? Months ago I made this prediction, and I was called insane for making it: Tzupy, what's your ~ target for bottom of Wave C at this time? Between 80$ (harsh scenario, 2011 like) and 300$ (mild scenario, 2013 like), Gox prices. We arrive again at US $ 1.200 or more in the future? http://blogpop.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/touro.jpeg   |
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Tzupy
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September 24, 2014, 01:10:36 PM |
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snip
We arrive again at US $ 1.200 or more in the future?
Since this question seems directed at me, I'll try to answer: if the bottom won't be below 250$, then IMO a return to the ATH and more in the second half of 2015 is almost certain. But for me the most important is that bitcoin stays healthy until the second half of 2016, when the block reward halving combined with a general uptrend should create a nice mania phase. |
Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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RyNinDaCleM (OP)
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Legen -wait for it- dary
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September 24, 2014, 01:26:00 PM |
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snip
We arrive again at US $ 1.200 or more in the future?
Since this question seems directed at me, I'll try to answer: if the bottom won't be below 250$, then IMO a return to the ATH and more in the second half of 2015 is almost certain. But for me the most important is that bitcoin stays healthy until the second half of 2016, when the block reward halving combined with a general uptrend should create a nice mania phase. I'll agree there with the exception that going below 250 doesn't matter. It will be bearish, yes, but the bullish long term will still be valid. My reply would be as long as Bitcoin doesn't die due to abandonment or protocol failure, it is all but guaranteed to make new all time highs eventually. |
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akujin
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September 24, 2014, 03:55:40 PM |
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Degrees in the charts are meaningless - the x axis is not comparable to the y axis. Haha I just posted that image which looks like what RyNinDaCleM posted... But I don't think that will happen.. I think the big guys won't let that happen... unless something really really bad happens to bitcoin Just like mtgox:  If they had not stopped the trading, it would have dropped further down |
BTC: 165rKPfGJ3ndrG1QziHR6ACnViP4EQHNK7
LTC: LMysGMFjmF9gR9RzStij74msXrDP1NqW8X
DOGE: DRZXGgcKN8kANwko3VycsBVVGqfy6XsSpM
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canibalbranco
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September 24, 2014, 04:52:11 PM |
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snip
We arrive again at US $ 1.200 or more in the future?
Since this question seems directed at me, I'll try to answer: if the bottom won't be below 250$, then IMO a return to the ATH and more in the second half of 2015 is almost certain. But for me the most important is that bitcoin stays healthy until the second half of 2016, when the block reward halving combined with a general uptrend should create a nice mania phase. I'll agree there with the exception that going below 250 doesn't matter. It will be bearish, yes, but the bullish long term will still be valid. My reply would be as long as Bitcoin doesn't die due to abandonment or protocol failure, it is all but guaranteed to make new all time highs eventually. Thanks for the replies, Tzupy and RyNinDaCleM! Let's hope that comes to $ 100,000 and we're all good! |
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Raystonn
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September 24, 2014, 04:52:33 PM |
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I'd just like to remind everyone here that EW is based entirely on technical analysis. This works great in the absence of any strong fundamental change that disrupts the technical progression of price. I will leave it as an exercise to the reader to determine if/when we hit such a disruption.
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KJO
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September 24, 2014, 06:14:52 PM |
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Not sure if myself is talking about this one or not But it can lead into this one Which can lead into this one At which time, I will kiss Bitcoin goodbye No no no... Not good buyAlright, that was all a joke, but the first one is the one I think he was talking about. That is seriously the funniest financial cartoon I have ever seen! |
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