Mini-Rig from Butterflylabs

[JWU42]

I tend to agree with Inaba- hence "time is of the essence" and would love to see this be more real world with penalty clauses etc. for >12 week delivery (stick).  Or on the other side, a bonus for each week less than 12 week delivery (carrot).

And yes, you can game it, but you get the gist of it...

If 'time is of the essence' as you seem to suggest, you would be better off going down the street and buying up a whackload of GPUs (setting up a few mining rigs takes a week) rather than waiting 2, 3, 4 months for a BFL product. That 2,3,4 months of time can be earning you BTC, and the GPUs will break even sooner than a delayed Single or Rig/Mini if you start the clock now. Different story long-term, but if you are concerned with maximizing your profit before December than GPUs may be the best way of achieving that.

I have a different theory: when the reward is halved, I agree that it will have little impact on the BTC exchange rate. Most of that is buoyed by speculation, and speculators don't care (and/or are oblivious) about block reward or mining profitability. But miners are not; marginal miners (stealing DeathAndTaxes's terminology here) will become non-profitable and will stop mining. What we will see is not a BTC price increase, but rather a significant reduction in difficulty over the 2 or 3 months following the reward drop. Not a 50% reduction, but significant nonetheless. Marginal miners (those with inefficient GPU setups and/or high electricity costs) will be forced out, leaving the high-efficiency GPU miners and the FPGA crowd.

Thermal envelope has been reached and I do not have the time or energy to deal with offsite locations...

@Epoch - it is a very fair point you make however...

EDIT - I ahve increased my GPU operations 200% in the last 6 weeks 

[nedbert9]

I tend to agree with Inaba- hence "time is of the essence" and would love to see this be more real world with penalty clauses etc. for >12 week delivery (stick).  Or on the other side, a bonus for each week less than 12 week delivery (carrot).

And yes, you can game it, but you get the gist of it...

If 'time is of the essence' as you seem to suggest, you would be better off going down the street and buying up a whackload of GPUs (setting up a few mining rigs takes a week) rather than waiting 2, 3, 4 months for a BFL product. That 2,3,4 months of time can be earning you BTC, and the GPUs will break even sooner than a delayed Single or Rig/Mini if you start the clock now. Different story long-term, but if you are concerned with maximizing your profit before December then GPUs may be the best way of achieving that.

I have a different theory: when the reward is halved, I agree that it will have little impact on the BTC exchange rate. Most of that is buoyed by speculation, and speculators don't care (and/or are oblivious) about block reward or mining profitability. But miners are not; marginal miners (stealing DeathAndTaxes's terminology here) will become non-profitable and will stop mining. What we will see is not a BTC price increase, but rather a significant reduction in difficulty over the 2 or 3 months following the reward drop. Not a 50% reduction, but significant nonetheless. Marginal miners (those with inefficient GPU setups and/or high electricity costs) will be forced out, leaving the high-efficiency GPU miners and the FPGA crowd.

Need to check the math on that.

[JWU42]

OK - I'll bite...

5970 - $400 (trying to skew to BFL's favor with a price on the HIGH side)
 - Conservatively running 700 Mh/s
 - .43 BTC/day
 - $2.16 (using $5 FX as a round number)
 - Could be mining by April 2, 2012
 - 185 day (26 weeks) payback (keeping it simple and ignoring power costs)

BFL Single
 - 832 Mh/s
 - .51 BTC/day
 - $2.57 (again, using $5)
 - Delivery in 6 weeks (BEYOND optimistic) - Start Mining May 14, 2012
 - 233 day (33 week) payback

So by early October the 5970 is paid off and the single, with the 6 week additional leadtime (realistically like 12), wouldn't be paid off in 2012...

If you net out power costs assuming $.12 Kwh.  5970 at 250 W (memory downclocked) and BFL Single at 80 W.

For the 5970, $2.16 a day is reduced by $.72 to net out $1.44 profit. 277 day payback (40 weeks) - so paid off by Week 2 of 2013
For the BFL single, $2.57 a day is reduced by $.23 to net out $2.34 profit.  256 day payback (36 weeks) - so paid off in week 4 in 2013.

So maybe nedbert9 is more correct than originally assumed.  Especially if power costs are high.

But there are three points which skew this closer than it should be...

1.  $400 purchase price of 5970
2.  Ignored the rapacious shipping on the BFL
3.  Took the BFL leadtime to 6 weeks

[Epoch]

OK - I'll bite...
...
So by early October the 5970 is paid off and the single, with the 6 week additional leadtime (realistically like 12), wouldn't be paid off in 2012...

If you net out power costs assuming $.12 Kwh...

For the 5970, $2.16 a day is reduced by $.72 to net out $1.44 profit. 277 day payback (40 weeks) - so paid off by Week 2 of 2013
For the BFL single, $2.57 a day is reduced by $.23 to net out $2.34 profit.  256 day payback (36 weeks) - so paid off in week 4 in 2013.
...

Nice start. Yes, the calculation is highly sensitive to the local price of electricity. Many of the large miners are paying closer to $0.06 to $0.08 per kWh; $0.12 is uncommonly high for North America. The current BFL Single leadtime is 12 weeks (no January order has yet shipped) so July 1 would be a more realistic 'start mining with a Single ordered today' date. Under these conditions the GPU has an even larger lead for break-even.

The other aspect is that the salvage/resale value of those 2 items. The 5970 should retain more of its original purchase price than the Single.

Back on topic ... @BFL-Engineer: if you are ready, can you post some official information on the Mini-Rig on your website? Forum speculation is nice but pointless after some time; if this is a real product offering we'd appreciate some official BFL information/announcement.

[JWU42]

http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/excel/epmxlfile5_6_a.xls

This appears to be net of taxes so rates are slightly understated.  US Residential Jan 2012 average is $.1143

[Epoch]

http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/excel/epmxlfile5_6_a.xls

This appears to be net of taxes so rates are slightly understated.  US Residential Jan 2012 average is $.1143

Keep in mind that the large-scale (read: efficient) miners would have set up shop where rates are more favorable than that. And many of them would not be paying residential rates; commercial rates in industrial parks/datacenters (even if not using 240V) are more attractive.

I'm a small-scale miner; I have an inefficient setup of a few dual-GPU rigs but my electricity costs are low. If I had to pay $0.12/kWh I don't think I'd be mining today. Not with GPUs, anyway, at least not unless I put in the effort to increase my mining efficiency.

For those with high electricity costs, I think they are a good market target for BFL (for any FPGA vendor): the higher your electricity costs, the more you stand to gain from FPGAs. But that is not to say that GPU mining is going away any time soon.

[BFL]

Epoch,  there will be an official announcement regarding the Mini-Rig next week.

[guruvan]

Epoch,  there will be an official announcement regarding the Mini-Rig next week.

This is great news. Thank you guys for the update.

(We will hope the announcement includes rackmounting options)

[abeaulieu]

Epoch,  there will be an official announcement regarding the Mini-Rig next week.

I can't comprehend how BFL has the time and resources to research, design, and launch another product when there are massive amounts of BFL Single orders that have yet to be fulfilled from several months ago. I would think the priority of the company would be to get those products in the hands of the customers that were guaranteed the product in 4-6 weeks that have spent more than 12 weeks waiting.

I know it may not mean too much to you, but this places serious doubt in the efficacy of the company. That being said I am a BFL supporter, in that I have placed a BFL Single order and I will wait patiently for what seems to be a very impactful product.

[bombo999]

singles are delayed due to Chinese new year ... the holiday has been extended by 6 months this year

[dust]

I am interested, but will be much more likely to purchase if the warranty is 1year+.

[JWU42]

Ain't gonna happen - we would all like longer warranty... 

[gnar1ta$]

Epoch,  there will be an official announcement regarding the Mini-Rig next week.

Are your announcement 'weeks' the same as your shipping 'weeks'?

[kjlimo]

Epoch,  there will be an official announcement regarding the Mini-Rig next week.

Are your announcement 'weeks' the same as your shipping 'weeks'?

 

[jamesg]

Epoch,  there will be an official announcement regarding the Mini-Rig next week.

Are your announcement 'weeks' the same as your shipping 'weeks'?

You guys are like wounded elephants.

If you are serious about getting some BFL products, get your wallets out and call BFL. Their phone number is right on their site.

[tgmarks]

Epoch,  there will be an official announcement regarding the Mini-Rig next week.

Are your announcement 'weeks' the same as your shipping 'weeks'?

You guys are like wounded elephants.

If you are serious about getting some BFL products, get your wallets out and call BFL. Their phone number is right on their site.

putting your money where your mouth is, is an agreeable statement, but what do wounded elephants have to do with anything?

[jamesg]

Epoch,  there will be an official announcement regarding the Mini-Rig next week.

Are your announcement 'weeks' the same as your shipping 'weeks'?

You guys are like wounded elephants.

If you are serious about getting some BFL products, get your wallets out and call BFL. Their phone number is right on their site.

putting your money where your mouth is, is an agreeable statement, but what do wounded elephants have to do with anything?

Elephants never forget.

I keep seeing the same dribble posted on these threads because people just think doing business any other way beside being perfect is unacceptable.

Instead of reminding everyone what we already know, I am only suggesting to pick up the phone and do your own research.

[gnar1ta$]

Epoch,  there will be an official announcement regarding the Mini-Rig next week.

Are your announcement 'weeks' the same as your shipping 'weeks'?

You guys are like wounded elephants.

If you are serious about getting some BFL products, get your wallets out and call BFL. Their phone number is right on their site.

putting your money where your mouth is, is an agreeable statement, but what do wounded elephants have to do with anything?

Elephants never forget.

I keep seeing the same dribble posted on these threads because people just think doing business any other way beside being perfect is unacceptable.

Instead of reminding everyone what we already know, I am only suggesting to pick up the phone and do your own research.

For the record, I haven't dribbled in any BFL threads.  Just don't have $30K to give them, but like the $15K rig idea that isn't on their website or announced here yet.  But if all it takes is a phone call that's easy enough.

[kjlimo]

Epoch,  there will be an official announcement regarding the Mini-Rig next week.

Are your announcement 'weeks' the same as your shipping 'weeks'?

You guys are like wounded elephants.

If you are serious about getting some BFL products, get your wallets out and call BFL. Their phone number is right on their site.

Never called anyone with my wallet... sorry for trolling

[DeathAndTaxes]