[XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread

[rpietila]

Code:

			25130	7314743
b_min	b_max	b_avg	#owners	XMRtot
367002	734003	519019	1	519019
183501	367002	259509	2	519019
91750	183501	129755	4	519019
45875	91750	64877	8	519019
22938	45875	32439	16	519019
11469	22938	16219	32	519019
5734	11469	8110	64	519019
2867	5734	4055	128	519019
1434	2867	2027	256	519019
717	1434	1014	512	519019
358	717	507	1126	570921
179	358	253	2253	570921
90	179	127	3604	456736
45	90	63	4686	296879
22	45	32	4686	148439
11	22	16	3604	57092
6	11	8	2253	17841
3	6	4	1126	4460
1	3	2	512	1014
0	1	1	256	253

As you quoted, this is based on a completely desktop-statistical methodology relying on the assumptions that XMR distribution is a market phenomenon. For pre/insta/nonmineable coins this is not at all true. I believe it is true for XMR since I know its history.

[e-coinomist]

As you quoted, this is based on a completely desktop-statistical methodology relying on the assumptions that XMR distribution is a market phenomenon. For pre/insta/nonmineable coins this is not at all true. I believe it is true for XMR since I know its history.

Top 3 miningpools should be able to estimate number of wallets beeing in existance, seen Dwarf made a good job employing cookies to group miner's wallets, if they take network hashrate in relation to their own rate that gives you total number of miner's wallets.
Somehow this intersects with probably more precise numbers obtainable from inside Poloniex. Uncertainity on who is separating the mining from trading remains. But pure hodler who mine to not sell now (or tomorrow), are a very rare species. Their wallets would appear as beeing single additional entities.
At least there you get people with short time involvement added, who never bothered to even install the software. Unkommon behavier if you compare with cryptocoin involvement motivations, those count for probable new adopters.

Your completely desktop-statistical methodology relies on some inputs which are precisely known, like coins in existance. Number of wallets would add solidity to these data. I believe if one knows market dynamics, total supply, and number people involved this models reality with some decent accuracy.

[bitebits]

Monero noob question: can Monero be used for anything else than an anonymous currency?

[illodin]

Monero noob question: can Monero be used for anything else than an anonymous currency?

Like what for example?

[iCEBREAKER]

Monero noob question: can Monero be used for anything else than an anonymous currency?

Like what for example?

The same applications of transparent distributed ledgers that Bitcoin is being used for.

Mixin=0 and there you go, BTC style public transactions and accountability.

[bbreconomy]

Code:

			25130	7314743
b_min	b_max	b_avg	#owners	XMRtot
367002	734003	519019	1	519019
183501	367002	259509	2	519019
91750	183501	129755	4	519019
45875	91750	64877	8	519019
22938	45875	32439	16	519019
11469	22938	16219	32	519019
5734	11469	8110	64	519019
2867	5734	4055	128	519019
1434	2867	2027	256	519019
717	1434	1014	512	519019
358	717	507	1126	570921
179	358	253	2253	570921
90	179	127	3604	456736
45	90	63	4686	296879
22	45	32	4686	148439
11	22	16	3604	57092
6	11	8	2253	17841
3	6	4	1126	4460
1	3	2	512	1014
0	1	1	256	253

As you quoted, this is based on a completely desktop-statistical methodology relying on the assumptions that XMR distribution is a market phenomenon. For pre/insta/nonmineable coins this is not at all true. I believe it is true for XMR since I know its history.

Thank you for sharing this estimate.

Can I ask you which type of future events you imagine are most like to grow the number of users and/or impact the distribution the most?

For example how do you think the launch of Crypto Kingdom will change this?

What about an Android wallet, official GUI or increased merchant adoption?

[bitebits]

Monero noob question: can Monero be used for anything else than an anonymous currency?

The same applications of transparent distributed ledgers that Bitcoin is being used for.

Mixin=0 and there you go, BTC style public transactions and accountability.

Thanks for your reply, cool that you can actually choose the level of anonimity! I am reading into this viewkey option, all really interesting.

For new people to Monero, Published on Jun 10, 2015 / Riccardo "fluffypony" Spagni talks about transactional privacy and Monero at Bitcoinference: Monero Talk at Bitcoinference

[rpietila]

Can I ask you which type of future events you imagine are most like to grow the number of users and/or impact the distribution the most?

For example how do you think the launch of Crypto Kingdom will change this?

What about an Android wallet, official GUI or increased merchant adoption?

(I don't believe we even have 25000 owners right now. That much could be the total number of people exposed to XMR but many of them are at zero balance.)

Price will rise as money enters in. We have the moneroinvestment.com site, which will soon be polished for launch and will target midclass people who are interested in buying 10-100k XMR with fiat. Even a few of these guys can raise the price significantly.

CK has potential to absolutely explode XMR. At present, about 1% of XMR is already in CK account, so if we get "even" 100,000 new players, the price will have to go up by 10x to accommodate the equivalent new buying. Of course not every game makes it big, so this is more speculative than the 'new investors' case, which is clear as sky, only variable is timing.

I don't think the wallets or merchants matter that much, but I am pretty alone with this opinion, so perhaps they do

[TrueCryptonaire]

Can I ask you which type of future events you imagine are most like to grow the number of users and/or impact the distribution the most?

For example how do you think the launch of Crypto Kingdom will change this?

What about an Android wallet, official GUI or increased merchant adoption?

(I don't believe we even have 25000 owners right now. That much could be the total number of people exposed to XMR but many of them are at zero balance.)

Price will rise as money enters in. We have the moneroinvestment.com site, which will soon be polished for launch and will target midclass people who are interested in buying 10-100k XMR with fiat. Even a few of these guys can raise the price significantly.

CK has potential to absolutely explode XMR. At present, about 1% of XMR is already in CK account, so if we get "even" 100,000 new players, the price will have to go up by 10x to accommodate the equivalent new buying. Of course not every game makes it big, so this is more speculative than the 'new investors' case, which is clear as sky, only variable is timing.

I don't think the wallets or merchants matter that much, but I am pretty alone with this opinion, so perhaps they do

Obviously this depends on what kind of merchants Monero attracts.
A merchant who wants to convert the whole payment into fiat is not that beneficial as a merchant that holds the payment completely or partially in Monero.
The advantage of these "good" merchants is they create higher marketcap for the coin via bringing added value to the community and marketcap.
The added value coems via transactional demand: instead a person uses both XMR and fiat, he can use only XMR or higher proportion of XMR. And the merchants becomes a bagholder in the best case scenario.

[Blazin8888]

How much XMR is available for sale? - on all exchanges? - where would the price be if the supply dried up?

[smoothie]

I worry that poloniex is too centralized as an exchange for monero.

There needs to be more exchanges or more usage with decentralized exchanges. 

[tokeweed]

I worry that poloniex is too centralized as an exchange for monero.

There needs to be more exchanges or more usage with decentralized exchanges.  

I was thinking, would it be possible for a Dark Net exchange for crypto? Would that idea fly? Is there that many Dark Net traders/merchants and buyers to support a healthy Dark market for trading?  Laundering their money cheaply would be their key motivation here.  Son instead of using BTC as the base currency, it would be XMR.  So everyone dealing with BTC would want to trade for XMR in the Dark Net for better anonymity.

 

[aminorex]

I worry that poloniex is too centralized as an exchange for monero.

There needs to be more exchanges or more usage with decentralized exchanges. 

Bitsquare.io

[smoothie]

I worry that poloniex is too centralized as an exchange for monero.

There needs to be more exchanges or more usage with decentralized exchanges. 

Bitsquare.io

Yes, but that remains to be used en masse. Still I feel people won't learn until they get burned...again.

I hope I'm wrong in my assumptions about Poloniex and it being too centralized.

[saddambitcoin]

I worry that poloniex is too centralized as an exchange for monero.

There needs to be more exchanges or more usage with decentralized exchanges.  

I was thinking, would it be possible for a Dark Net exchange for crypto? Would that idea fly? Is there that many Dark Net traders/merchants and buyers to support a healthy Dark market for trading?  Laundering their money cheaply would be their key motivation here.  Son instead of using BTC as the base currency, it would be XMR.  So everyone dealing with BTC would want to trade for XMR in the Dark Net for better anonymity.

I'm sure it is possible but the counterparty risk would be insane, how much XMR would you trust to an anonymous exchange? Maybe they are legit but get hacked, or say they got hacked and run an exit scam with user deposits. Can't even trace where the stolen funds are going.

I do agree and hope that some more exchanges become seriously interested in Monero now. Poloniex is great but they were down for about 5 minutes yesterday (some sort of outage), it essentially stops the entire XMR ecosystem because everyone (xmr.to, shapeshift) is relying on their api for the exchange rate.

Decentralized exchanges like Bitsquare are a good step.

[bigfryguy]

waves DEX should be up and running in a few months, Im sure that almost all high volume coins will be traded there.  It will supposedly use existing exchanges for centralized pair matching, while using the blockchain to keep it decentralized in the wallet..

Sasha: “‘DEX’, is a term from James, from SuperNet. This is the thing I told you about. It is centralized order matching with decentralized settlement. DEX is a distributed exchange. James had another idea. He wanted to do it completely peer-to-peer with centralized matching and decentralized settlement. So you will have very fast trading, like in Poloniex.”

Sasha: “We are writing the code already. We are writing the crypto-currency part, the blockchain part, and will be starting to code the centralized matcher. We will be working with certain existing crypto-currency exchanges that can offer their services. They will be handling the matching. We also want to offer independent solutions. So, a matching module can be installed by anyone who wants to launch his or her own crypto-currency exchange utilizing this matcher.

havent been a fan of XMR for a long time because of its centralized trading system negating almost all its use(and other things unrelated to the tech), but if you guys can get xmr trading quickly and without KYC/AML  I may change my mind.

[windale]

I worry that poloniex is too centralized as an exchange for monero.

There needs to be more exchanges or more usage with decentralized exchanges. 

is only one exchanger central in big volume transaction is not good, and poloniex is only big volume transaction in monero, bitrex is very low volume transaction monero
its coin good is decentalized coin in much exchanger
big coin big volume is all decentralized
you can see litecoin ethereum or dogecoin we are decentralized and much exchanger acceptep trade

[Globb0]

I'm sure it is possible but the counterparty risk would be insane, how much XMR would you trust to an anonymous exchange? Maybe they are legit but get hacked, or say they got hacked and run an exit scam with user deposits. Can't even trace where the stolen funds are going.

Its not like we got the money back from the sharex exit scam, the bitcoin ledger didn't help there. Just a lot of wishful thinkers threatening to dox it somehow.

[bbc.reporter]

I have a suggestion to help improve Monero's economy. It is simple and practical. I have recently read the news that 2 darknet market places will accept XMR starting on September 1. So why not create a light wallet complete with GUI. I am very sure that the people who buy and sell in the darknet will not have the patience to download the whole blockchain. It will be more convenient for them to have a light wallet. It will also help in gaining faster adoption.

[Globb0]

Wit the change to an LMDB implementation, I think the long blockchain download will be obsolete. Not sure where that is in terms of being released to live.