[XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread

[saddambitcoin]

I suspect Monero will test 0.005 this week, a lot of people likely sold expecting another lengthy slow decline. Now the bid sum has gone up 4x since the last rise and the market sentiment is changing. A lot of people dumped in the past week and are looking to buy back in (me too, but i was holding 1000:1 XMR:BTC).

The facts:
-Veteran BTC lead devs and BTC whales are interested and active in XMR.
-Bitcoin itself is now increasingly focused on non-interesting things - regulation, not innovation. [perhaps fine for attracting bigger investors, but personally i miss the old bitcoin spirit]
-Hashrate on Monero continually increasing, Scrypt ASICs will displace a lot of GPU miners and I suppose they will come to XMR if they haven't already.

I basically agree with you.  But.  On Poloniex where all the action is there is 240 btc bid at 390 which is 36% of the total.  80 btc of it was placed 3 days ago when the price was dropping for 36 hrs and accelerating.  It has been relatively stable since, yes that is a short time.

True. I should also consider, Mr. 0039 holds perhaps 30,000 BTC and wants to hedge 1% in an altcoin. If he loses 300 BTC in the end, no big loss to him. But a small investment now could save him 3-5 years from now when Bitcoin is regulated up the ass and he wants to be liquid in the free money that is Monero!

[dreamspark]

True. I should also consider, Mr. 0039 holds perhaps 30,000 BTC and wants to hedge 1% in an altcoin. If he loses 300 BTC in the end, no big loss to him. But a small investment now could save him 3-5 years from now when Bitcoin is regulated up the ass and he wants to be liquid in the free money that is Monero!

Yep but he might not even get a chance at that price, some serious support has been built in front of it and the amount of XMR on sale is dwindling quickly. This has always been a problem in regards to whales diversifying as there just aren't enough coins for them to buy without moving the market significantly.

[nakaone]

there is no otc for xmr anymore is there? - I think if a reputable person in this forum would supervise an otc, larger investors as well as larger sellers would be better off.

buying even mediocre amounts is complicated without moving the price too much

[smooth]

there is no otc for xmr anymore is there? - I think if a reputable person in this forum would supervise an otc, larger investors as well as larger sellers would be better off.

buying even mediocre amounts is complicated without moving the price too much

Not a bad idea. I wonder how to organize it though. I occasionally get PMs but rarely do I hear from both sides at the same time.

Big traders don't want to show their hand, so listing on a thread is probably not going to work.

[rpietila]

One possibility would be a market batch eg. 5,000 XMR. One would always be able to buy or sell one with the market maker, or list several for sale. I once had such a thing for $500 f/v bags of silver.

[dEBRUYNE]

there is no otc for xmr anymore is there? - I think if a reputable person in this forum would supervise an otc, larger investors as well as larger sellers would be better off.

buying even mediocre amounts is complicated without moving the price too much

I would also be interested in this, maybe some one reputable can set this up?

[Triffin]

Wouldn't NXT asset exchange ( AE ) work for what you propose ??

Triff ..

[dEBRUYNE]

Wouldn't NXT asset exchange ( AE ) work for what you propose ??

Triff ..

I think a thread here on bitcointalk with some reputable members would be a better idea. Some people don't have the time or willingness to learn how to use the AE..

[smooth]

there is no otc for xmr anymore is there? - I think if a reputable person in this forum would supervise an otc, larger investors as well as larger sellers would be better off.

buying even mediocre amounts is complicated without moving the price too much

I would also be interested in this, maybe some one reputable can set this up?

Let's start with this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=716331.0

It can evolve to meet the needs of those participating, if any.

[dEBRUYNE]

there is no otc for xmr anymore is there? - I think if a reputable person in this forum would supervise an otc, larger investors as well as larger sellers would be better off.

buying even mediocre amounts is complicated without moving the price too much

I would also be interested in this, maybe some one reputable can set this up?

Let's start with this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=716331.0

It can evolve to meet the needs of those participating, if any.

Looks nice!

[rpietila]

Wouldn't NXT asset exchange ( AE ) work for what you propose ??

Triff ..

I think a thread here on bitcointalk with some reputable members would be a better idea. Some people don't have the time or willingness to learn how to use the AE..

You must let go of the legacy methods and embrace the new eventually. If those of us in the thick of it don't, then who can be expected to? The Nxt AE would be great for this. If people remain in the past with these things; especially when guided to, then progress becomes much less progressive.

Please go set up such a thing! I want to see how it works.

[rpietila]

The table of some of the historical figures of Monero:

Code:

Day	Date	#XMR (kxmr)	ksat/xmr	mktcap (btc)	volume(kxmr)	inflation/day
1	18.4.2014	16	20	3	0	162,46 %
2	19.4.2014	41	20	8	0	61,81 %
3	20.4.2014	66	20	13	0	38,15 %
4	21.4.2014	91	20	18	0	27,58 %
5	22.4.2014	117	20	23	1	21,59 %
6	23.4.2014	142	20	28	2	17,73 %
7	24.4.2014	167	20	33	2	15,04 %
8	25.4.2014	192	20	38	10	13,05 %
9	26.4.2014	217	20	43	5	11,53 %
10	27.4.2014	242	25	61	16	10,32 %
11	28.4.2014	267	25	67	6	9,35 %
12	29.4.2014	292	25	73	0	8,54 %
13	30.4.2014	317	30	95	2	7,85 %
14	1.5.2014	342	30	103	2	7,27 %
15	2.5.2014	367	36	132	12	6,77 %
16	3.5.2014	392	39	153	8	6,33 %
17	4.5.2014	416	44	183	9	5,95 %
18	5.5.2014	441	80	353	18	5,60 %
19	6.5.2014	466	124	578	13	5,30 %
20	7.5.2014	491	134	657	5	5,03 %
21	8.5.2014	515	102	526	4	4,78 %
22	9.5.2014	540	109	588	3	4,55 %
23	10.5.2014	564	104	587	3	4,35 %
24	11.5.2014	589	112	660	6	4,16 %
25	12.5.2014	614	130	798	21	3,99 %
26	13.5.2014	638	140	893	25	3,83 %
27	14.5.2014	663	135	894	25	3,69 %
28	15.5.2014	687	120	824	25	3,55 %
29	16.5.2014	711	100	711	50	3,42 %
30	17.5.2014	736	100	736	11	3,31 %
31	18.5.2014	760	90	684	12	3,20 %
32	19.5.2014	784	314	2463	15	3,09 %
33	20.5.2014	809	595	4811	170	3,00 %
34	21.5.2014	833	378	3148	132	2,90 %
35	22.5.2014	857	353	3025	72	2,82 %
36	23.5.2014	881	391	3445	97	2,74 %
37	24.5.2014	905	645	5839	75	2,66 %
38	25.5.2014	929	608	5650	83	2,59 %
39	26.5.2014	953	494	4710	74	2,52 %
40	27.5.2014	977	427	4173	38	2,45 %
41	28.5.2014	1 001	414	4146	75	2,39 %
42	29.5.2014	1 025	349	3578	52	2,33 %
43	30.5.2014	1 049	260	2728	75	2,28 %
44	31.5.2014	1 073	302	3241	62	2,22 %
45	1.6.2014	1 097	327	3587	64	2,17 %
46	2.6.2014	1 121	284	3183	27	2,12 %
47	3.6.2014	1 145	279	3194	48	2,08 %
48	4.6.2014	1 168	284	3318	28	2,03 %
49	5.6.2014	1 192	258	3076	49	1,99 %
50	6.6.2014	1 216	212	2578	71	1,95 %
51	7.6.2014	1 239	212	2628	30	1,91 %
52	8.6.2014	1 263	201	2539	29	1,87 %
53	9.6.2014	1 287	218	2805	38	1,83 %
54	10.6.2014	1 310	273	3577	100	1,80 %
55	11.6.2014	1 334	279	3721	47	1,76 %
56	12.6.2014	1 357	286	3882	63	1,73 %
57	13.6.2014	1 381	300	4142	44	1,70 %
58	14.6.2014	1 404	406	5701	111	1,67 %
59	15.6.2014	1 428	444	6339	54	1,64 %
60	16.6.2014	1 451	524	7603	132	1,61 %
61	17.6.2014	1 474	493	7268	64	1,58 %
62	18.6.2014	1 498	446	6680	60	1,55 %
63	19.6.2014	1 521	527	8015	76	1,53 %
64	20.6.2014	1 544	640	9883	127	1,50 %
65	21.6.2014	1 567	856	13417	118	1,48 %
66	22.6.2014	1 591	755	12009	89	1,46 %
67	23.6.2014	1 614	725	11699	74	1,43 %
68	24.6.2014	1 637	570	9330	83	1,41 %
69	25.6.2014	1 660	540	8964	43	1,39 %
70	26.6.2014	1 683	526	8852	23	1,37 %
71	27.6.2014	1 706	410	6995	68	1,35 %
72	28.6.2014	1 729	414	7158	49	1,33 %
73	29.6.2014	1 752	419	7341	35	1,31 %
74	30.6.2014	1 775	414	7348	30	1,29 %
75	1.7.2014	1 798	379	6813	28	1,27 %
76	2.7.2014	1 821	367	6682	26	1,25 %
77	3.7.2014	1 843	401	7392	41	1,24 %
78	4.7.2014	1 866	429	8006	40	1,22 %
79	5.7.2014	1 889	400	7556	14	1,20 %
80	6.7.2014	1 912	378	7226	20	1,19 %
81	7.7.2014	1 934	339	6558	29	1,17 %
82	8.7.2014	1 957	352	6889	31	1,16 %
83	9.7.2014	1 980	338	6692	23	1,14 %
84	10.7.2014	2 002	327	6548	32	1,13 %
85	11.7.2014	2 025	294	5953	45	1,11 %
86	12.7.2014	2 048	284	5815	25	1,10 %
87	13.7.2014	2 070	261	5403	46	1,09 %
88	14.7.2014	2 093	284	5943	38	1,07 %
89	15.7.2014	2 115	318	6726	44	1,06 %
90	16.7.2014	2 137	400	8550	104	1,05 %
91	17.7.2014	2 160	505	10907	112	1,04 %
92	18.7.2014	2 182	444	9689	82	1,02 %
93	19.7.2014	2 205	453	9987	41	1,01 %
94	20.7.2014	2 227	435	9687	32	1,00 %
95	21.7.2014	2 249	488	10976	60	0,99 %
96	22.7.2014	2 271	510	11584	62	0,98 %
97	23.7.2014	2 294	484	11101	65	0,97 %
98	24.7.2014	2 316	431	9981	94	0,96 %
99	25.7.2014	2 338	423	9889	60	0,95 %
100	26.7.2014	2 369	452	10707	39	0,93 %
101	27.7.2014	2 391	431	10305	37	0,92 %
102	28.7.2014	2 413	439	10593	43	0,91 %

[rpietila]

Notes: The price is a volume-weighted daily average of:
- OTC thread, until
- Cryptonote exchange, until
- Poloniex.

So it is likely quite close to the actual market price. The very beginning is set to 20ksat due to volume considerations.

The volume only counts the abovementioned sources, so it understates the actual volume quite a bit.

The number of coins is according to model, so it might deviate slightly (~1%) of the actual.

[rpietila]

I have been searching for data to estimate the number of users in any given day of history. Any such data is appreciated and small bounties will be given for any information that might help to estimate anything related to this. Currently the usercount numbers are too speculative to be published, and all further econometrics that might be derived from having them available is lost to the world.

[rpietila]

The all-time volume weighted average price of XMR is 0.00426 by the way, with approximately normal distribution centered around this price, and 81% of the volume of the trades in [0.002, 0.006] range. Volume is denominated in XMR.

If the volume is denominated in BTC though, the average is higher, at 0.00485.

[pinky]

I have been searching for data to estimate the number of users in any given day of history. Any such data is appreciated...

Have you thought about asking Poloniex exchange? XMR is currently pretty centralized (50-70% volume) on Poloniex and in the past weeks they had 80% of all volume, I am sure by telling you this numbers for your research they wouldn't be breaching any confidentiality - they even had counter of all users and currently logged in users and XMR was 90% of their trade volume.

[MoneroMooo]

I have been searching for data to estimate the number of users in any given day of history. Any such data is appreciated and small bounties will be given for any information that might help to estimate anything related to this. Currently the usercount numbers are too speculative to be published, and all further econometrics that might be derived from having them available is lost to the world.

Miners can be estimated by the pool logs:

grep Accepted.*share pool.log | sed -e 's/ .*from.\([a-zA-Z0-9]*\)@.*/ \1/' | awk '{if(!d[$1,$2]){d[$1,$2]=1;t[$1]++}}END{for(n in t){print n ": " t[n]}}' | sort

This outputs a list of number of miners per day.

Mine ranges from 1 to 4 (whee!) per day.

Of course, since miners change pools, you'll get an overestimate unless you feed the logs to this command at once so the same address isn't counted multiple times. Then this gives you a lower bound to total users. If you then know the typical miners/users ratio from other coins with a more public blockchain at a point in their history similar to XMR now, you can extrapolate miners to users too.

[dreamspark]

I have been searching for data to estimate the number of users in any given day of history. Any such data is appreciated and small bounties will be given for any information that might help to estimate anything related to this. Currently the usercount numbers are too speculative to be published, and all further econometrics that might be derived from having them available is lost to the world.

Miners can be estimated by the pool logs:

grep Accepted.*share pool.log | sed -e 's/ .*from.\([a-zA-Z0-9]*\)@.*/ \1/' | awk '{if(!d[$1,$2]){d[$1,$2]=1;t[$1]++}}END{for(n in t){print n ": " t[n]}}' | sort

This outputs a list of number of miners per day.

Mine ranges from 1 to 4 (whee!) per day.

Of course, since miners change pools, you'll get an overestimate unless you feed the logs to this command at once so the same address isn't counted multiple times. Then this gives you a lower bound to total users. If you then know the typical miners/users ratio from other coins with a more public blockchain at a point in their history similar to XMR now, you can extrapolate miners to users too.

Lets be fair though finding out the number of miners connected to a pool has almost no bearing on users of the coin on any given day in history. Lets also not forget that even if in some way it could that would just show you the amount of miners connected to the known pools and tell you nothing of the private pools and also the solo miners.

[adhitthana]

So truly, now it is possible to make up if you were late from Bitcoin. Just take the 100:1 leverage (or more) I will write about the XMR:BTC ratio concept more soon!

Haven't you been recommending people buy XMR up to 0.005? Or did I get this wrong?

[rpietila]

Are you suggesting people should pay more than 0.005 for XMR?

Probably, when XMR goes through 0.005 and especially 0.006 (that is a resistance), it will still be a buy.

But why bother as small amounts can still be bought at 0.0045..

I was fiercely advocating people to buy Bitcoin at $22, and still do at $575, because the higher price is proof of larger adoption, which means higher probability of success.