rpietila Calling the Bottom

[Chef Ramsay]

hahaha this retarded bull-idiots bitcoin worshippers

Your coin is an inflationary MESS and will never see a new ATH

It's not half as advanced as most alts. It's image is tarnished. Get out now people!

You have been falling for the hype of these bulltards people and handed your money to them. But they are all full of shit and will continue to tell you to buy their shit from them.

its a bitcoin forum. If you don't like bitcoin then why don't you just GTFO?

LOL, the trolls sound like progressive butter balls w/ their mushy talking points from their fountain of knowledge or paid propaganda outlet. It's so funny to think that broke asses sign up for accounts to spit shit we see all the time thinking that is going to do anything besides make them suspect from the beginning and inevitably forcing them vanish. Tiring but not surprising nor overwhelming. Just a quicker scroll down the screen from my perspective.

[smoothie]

hahaha this retarded bull-idiots bitcoin worshippers

Your coin is an inflationary MESS and will never see a new ATH

It's not half as advanced as most alts. It's image is tarnished. Get out now people!

You have been falling for the hype of these bulltards people and handed your money to them. But they are all full of shit and will continue to tell you to buy their shit from them.

1. "will never see a new ATH" has been claimed in so many other instances prior to 2013... lol

2. Since when does bitcoin need to be "advanced" to be successful? The bitcoin protocol is secure.

"THE BITCOIN PROTOCOL IS SECURE. GET OUT NOW PEOPLE!" lol

3. You forget that everyone gets price predictions wrong from time to time, even me. Trust me buddy you will be proven wrong as well.

Just wait...  

[riiiiising]

Blockchain, as a technology, is indestructible. A reasonable starting point is to understand that crypto is here to stay, and no laws or wars can stop it. Any individual cryptocoin, Bitcoin included, has challenges particular to it, and local laws and wars may prove detrimental to individuals' wealth, as well as life.

People can only learn more about Bitcoin, unlearning is not possible. With any technology, invention or innovation, there is an adoption curve that is the aggregate of all the people's individual propensities of learning about a new thing, deciding to use it, trying it, and amplifying their usage to significant levels. On average, the process from first hearing about something, to trying it, takes 2 years. From trying to actual adoption, we might add 1 more year.

The current number of Bitcoin owners is likely a paltry 1-2 million. Even smaller is the number of people who actively use Bitcoin in their life. The first number, at least, has not grown significantly in 2014. Enthusiasm has given way to apathy, evidenced by both price and volume of trades lagging far behind their highs.

Meanwhile, the 2 years average delay from first hearing to first trial, is slowly becoming fulfilled in hundreds of millions of people. There were millions who heard about the bubble in 2011, and their "2 years" started counting. Not enough of them were ready to buy in 2012, which was still a year of slow price appreciation. But in 2013, the great advances were made by the people who had had 2 years to ensure themselves that it was not a fly-by-night. In 2012, the global media coverage about Bitcoin was tiny, but in 2013 all changed. In two years, we are talking about 100x more people in the pipeline of becoming Bitcoin owners.

This gives rise to the exponential trendline. There is only one way to draw a trendline with the best R^2 fit (follows from the fact that goodness-of-fit is a universal criterion), and it is shown here. The number of Bitcoin users is so small at 1-2 million that the trendline should stay exponential 2 more orders of magnitude minimum.

An added reason is that because Bitcoin is money, and the exponential trendline means exponential gains for everyone involved, it makes sense to speculate and buy a large number of bitcoins instead of the fair share. (The fair share assuming worldwide adoption is BTC0.002 and assuming that only the elite of 3% world's richest and most connected buy it, BTC0.07.)

An increasing number of people are already ready to buy bitcoins. Banks, ETF's, private services, etc. have the infrastructure ready for launch. Both are waiting. Bitcoin holders are anxious, but as long as their anxiety results in them selling more bitcoins to the deep-pocket investors, the wait continues. In 2012 it continued quite long, with price going up only a little (more than 100% though).

Hearing about Bitcoin is the start of your Bitcoin pregnancy. Of these pregnancies, not all perhaps result in a healthy baby (adopting Bitcoin as your home currency), but luckily here, the time is not limited to 9 months. The average with those who currently are power users may have been 3 years (or less, since the delay is shorter with people with the early adopter mindset), but for others it may be 5 years. Miscarriages happen often, but the reverse-miscarriage is also a very typical occurrence.

We have a world-record number of Bitcoin pregnancies going on now, and hardly any births for several months already. I believe that the laws of nature and mathematics will take care that the babies will be seen in increasing numbers.

The trendline shows how much behind we are currently. The price shows the daily birth rate. I am writing this from a castle that I bought with money earned by trading Bitcoin based on the very premise I have explained to you here.

I believe that the next one might carry us north of $10,000. The longer time we spend here, the more explosive it gets. The supermove from $2 to $266 (133x price appreciation) took 17 months. Extrapolate that with the starting point of $340 in 2014-4-11.

[rpietila]

I haven't changed my mind, nor my actions.

[JayJuanGee]

I haven't changed my mind, nor my actions.

Wouldn't you believe that it would be better to give more specific updates.

For example, I am largely doing the same thing, which is holding and continuing to buy, and even experiencing other kinds of adjustments and rethinking... NONETHELESS, i remain confident that it is good to continue to buy and accumulate.

However, my thinking may be different if I had begun buying BTC at a lower price  (and my BTC portfolio were in the black) or if I had accumulated thousands of BTC.

Also, I remain hesitant to sell; however, if I were certain that the price were going to go down at least 5 or 10%, then I would sell and rebuy.. but I am never that confident about the price going down and I believe at any time some big player can come in and reverse the direction to cause BTC prices to move upward at a fairly incredible speed.

[rpietila]

I haven't changed my mind, nor my actions.

Wouldn't you believe that it would be better to give more specific updates.

For example, I am largely doing the same thing, which is holding and continuing to buy, and even experiencing other kinds of adjustments and rethinking... NONETHELESS, i remain confident that it is good to continue to buy and accumulate.

However, my thinking may be different if I had begun buying BTC at a lower price  (and my BTC portfolio were in the black) or if I had accumulated thousands of BTC.

Also, I remain hesitant to sell; however, if I were certain that the price were going to go down at least 5 or 10%, then I would sell and rebuy.. but I am never that confident about the price going down and I believe at any time some big player can come in and reverse the direction to cause BTC prices to move upward at a fairly incredible speed.

+1

(Show me a person who has ever profited from a "strategy" of "buying back lower". Over as short a timeframe as 5 years, it's likely to underperform significantly to simple buy/hold good stuff.)

[mmitech]

hahaha this retarded bull-idiots bitcoin worshippers

Your coin is an inflationary MESS and will never see a new ATH

It's not half as advanced as most alts. It's image is tarnished. Get out now people!

You have been falling for the hype of these bulltards people and handed your money to them. But they are all full of shit and will continue to tell you to buy their shit from them.

1. "will never see a new ATH" has been claimed in so many other instances prior to 2013... lol

2. Since when does bitcoin need to be "advanced" to be successful? The bitcoin protocol is secure.

"THE BITCOIN PROTOCOL IS SECURE. GET OUT NOW PEOPLE!" lol

3. You forget that everyone gets price predictions wrong from time to time, even me. Trust me buddy you will be proven wrong as well.

Just wait...  

Smothie, at this point I thought you would already have some wisdom, the possibility of hitting lower double digits is really huge, and the bubble cycle has just came to an end, after we hit a bottom, Bitcoin will become mature and will experience slow growth, people will start using it as they suppose to, instead of hoarding the shit of it, which will bring huge liquidity that will keep the price really kind of stable.

It may take years to get to what we were at before.

[inca]

Smothie, at this point I thought you would already have some wisdom, the possibility of hitting lower double digits is really huge, and the bubble cycle has just came to an end, after we hit a bottom, Bitcoin will become mature and will experience slow growth, people will start using it as they suppose to, instead of hoarding the shit of it, which will bring huge liquidity that will keep the price really kind of stable.

It may take years to get to what we were at before.

The problem with that of course, is that it is complete baloney. What possible reason will there be for no more speculation or hoarding in a currency that is designed specifically for that?

[mmitech]

Smothie, at this point I thought you would already have some wisdom, the possibility of hitting lower double digits is really huge, and the bubble cycle has just came to an end, after we hit a bottom, Bitcoin will become mature and will experience slow growth, people will start using it as they suppose to, instead of hoarding the shit of it, which will bring huge liquidity that will keep the price really kind of stable.

It may take years to get to what we were at before.

The problem with that of course, is that it is complete baloney. What possible reason will there be for no more speculation or hoarding in a currency that is designed specifically for that?

Well, I could try explaining it for 100th time, but the fact that you are asking me "again" means that no one gives a fuck about what I was trying to express for almost a year now... so my only response is " time will tell my friend".

[BitCoinNutJob]

I haven't changed my mind, nor my actions.

Agreed, nothing has changed, we've been here before, this time we at $200 and not $2.  People think its over

[NotLambchop]

Rpietila promised me $10k coin by last Christmas.  Are we still on track?

[podyx]

I haven't changed my mind, nor my actions.

Agreed, nothing has changed, we've been here before, this time we at $200 and not $2.  People think its over

The blatant fact that bitcoin CAN fail has never occured to you?

[mmitech]

I haven't changed my mind, nor my actions.

Agreed, nothing has changed, we've been here before, this time we at $200 and not $2.  People think its over

The blatant fact that bitcoin CAN fail has never occured to you?

You seem to be a desperate person, you change your sentiment 20 times a day, and the fact that you seek comfort in this forum about your shitty investment is just worrying.

[podyx]

I haven't changed my mind, nor my actions.

Agreed, nothing has changed, we've been here before, this time we at $200 and not $2.  People think its over

The blatant fact that bitcoin CAN fail has never occured to you?

You seem to be a desperate person, you change your sentiment 20 times a day, and the fact that you seek comfort in this forum about your shitty investment is just worrying.

I've never changed sentiment. I'm only rational unlike many people here

[cbeast]

I haven't changed my mind, nor my actions.

Agreed, nothing has changed, we've been here before, this time we at $200 and not $2.  People think its over

The blatant fact that bitcoin CAN fail has never occured to you?

You seem to be a desperate person, you change your sentiment 20 times a day, and the fact that you seek comfort in this forum about your shitty investment is just worrying.

I've never changed sentiment. I'm only rational unlike many people here

I'm sorry I must have missed something. Can you please point out a scenario and cause for Bitcoin's failure?

[podyx]

I haven't changed my mind, nor my actions.

Agreed, nothing has changed, we've been here before, this time we at $200 and not $2.  People think its over

The blatant fact that bitcoin CAN fail has never occured to you?

You seem to be a desperate person, you change your sentiment 20 times a day, and the fact that you seek comfort in this forum about your shitty investment is just worrying.

I've never changed sentiment. I'm only rational unlike many people here

I'm sorry I must have missed something. Can you please point out a scenario and cause for Bitcoin's failure?

I don't think it will but so many people here seem to think bitcoin is unstoppable and will succeed.
It's far from guaranteed so I don't know why you're questioning me. Maybe you're a genius and have already taken as many loans as you can though? I mean, why wouldn't you if it's guaranteed to succeed?

[JorgeStolfi]

What possible reason will there be for no more speculation or hoarding in a currency that is designed specifically for that?

The white paper does not mention that, does it?  The declared purpose of bitcoin was to be a currency for e-payments, not a get-rich-by-sittng-on-it instrument.  Given that goal, making the supply fixed probably was a mistake, as economists keep saying (after all, "Satoshi" was a computer scientist, not an economist.)

Besides perhaps the mistaken notion that the inflation of national currencies is a bad thing, the fixed money supply is something that a computer scientist would have chosen for ease of implementation.  An unbounded money supply would have been a pain to program; he could not have used a fixed block and transition layout with 64-bit long ints, he would have needed a variable-length multiword integer, in the layout and in the implementation.

That is only one of many details in the protocol that suggest that it was never meant to be more than a computer experiment.  Take, for example, the abrupt halving of the reward every 4 years: it is a source of instability and uncertainty, the 2016 halving is already having people worried now.  Why didn't he specify a more gradual decrease, that would give the same 0.5 factor in 4 years but in small monthly steps? The only reason I can think of is that it would have required another page or two of source code, and a table of 48 steps, properly rounded, and another paragraph in the white paper...

[NotLambchop]

... Take, for example, the abrupt halving of the reward every 4 years: it is a source of instability and uncertainty, the 2016 halving is already having people worried now.  Why didn't he specify a more gradual decrease, that would give the same 0.5 factor in 4 years but in small monthly steps? The only reason I can think of is that it would have required another page or two of source code, and a table of 48 steps, properly rounded, and another paragraph in the white paper...

Actually thought same myself, not kidding.

[nanobrain]

What possible reason will there be for no more speculation or hoarding in a currency that is designed specifically for that?

The white paper does not mention that, does it?  The declared purpose of bitcoin was to be a currency for e-payments, not a get-rich-by-sittng-on-it instrument.  Given that goal, making the supply fixed probably was a mistake, as economists keep saying (after all, "Satoshi" was a computer scientist, not an economist.)

Besides perhaps the mistaken notion that the inflation of national currencies is a bad thing, the fixed money supply is something that a computer scientist would have chosen for ease of implementation.  An unbounded money supply would have been a pain to program; he could not have used a fixed block and transition layout with 64-bit long ints, he would have needed a variable-length multiword integer, in the layout and in the implementation.

That is only one of many details in the protocol that suggest that it was never meant to be more than a computer experiment.  Take, for example, the abrupt halving of the reward every 4 years: it is a source of instability and uncertainty, the 2016 halving is already having people worried now.  Why didn't he specify a more gradual decrease, that would give the same 0.5 factor in 4 years but in small monthly steps? The only reason I can think of is that it would have required another page or two of source code, and a table of 48 steps, properly rounded, and another paragraph in the white paper...

Oh Jorge....this sort of stuff is the equivalent of drawing a cartoon of Muhammad with coke and hookers: criticising Satoshi will have the cultists calling Fatwah on you

"All hail Satoshi"

[Ultros]

Oh Jorge....this sort of stuff is the equivalent of drawing a cartoon of Muhammad with coke and hookers.

That's way too low even for Jorge. He's often wrong but he can't be that dumb. You need hard work to equal such level of obnoxious stupidity.