rpietila Calling the Bottom

[rpietila]

* Finally, it is not clear to me that the world really needs a payment system like bitcoin.  Its expected virtues, of liberating people from oppressive regimes and from excessive bank fees, have yet to be demonstrated (or have already been debunked).

The world is composed of 7+ billion people currently. Of these, ~100,000 people at present currently do need bitcoin, and its value is supported by this group. An additional group of a small few million use it but don't need it.

Every day, there is more freedom from oppressive governments because of Bitcoin. You don't see it because your government is your all-inclusive udder. But look at the people from whom the money to feed you is coming. They need it.

Oh please, Jorge, don't shut it down! 

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[cbeast]

JorgeStoffli's arguments are textbook examples of Platonic dualism. Educators typically use these arguments because they are constrained to a curriculum and become inculcated with facts as presented by their textbook publishing firms. They are incapable of their own critical thought. Again, no disrespect intended, but he is typical of many bored tenured educators and venturing way outside his field of expertise and pretending to wield some authority. Add to that he has never offered any constructive criticism beyond his pass/fail mindset. In fact, he hasn't even mentioned that he has even thought about how cryptcurrencies will affect his field. That to me indicates he is just plain bored with his work and probably needs a hobby rather than obsess over something he has no interest in providing any meaningful contributions. As long as you keep quoting him, I'll see hist posts, but until he has anything interesting to say he will go back on ignore.

[JorgeStolfi]

* Finally, it is not clear to me that the world really needs a payment system like bitcoin.  Its expected virtues, of liberating people from oppressive regimes and from excessive bank fees, have yet to be demonstrated (or have already been debunked).  

The world is composed of 7+ billion people currently. Of these, ~100,000 people at present currently do need bitcoin, and its value is supported by this group. [ ... ] Every day, there is more freedom from oppressive governments because of Bitcoin.

Really? Could you please explain how those 100'000 people get more "freedom from oppresive governments" by using bitcoin?  Is "freedom"  just evading taxes, or buying illegal drugs, weapons, child porn -- or is there something else?

Claim: in its 6 years of existence, bitcoin has caused 1000x more damage than benefits to the world.

The number may be exaggerated, but can you dispute it?  If you add MtGOX and all the other bitcoin scams and thefts, add the use of bitcoin in financing crime, all the people who had their life ruined for believing in the fantastic price predictions or gambling in online casinos -- you will get easily a billion dollars of damages inflicted on mankind.  Even if you subtract the cases of thieves stealing from other thieves, crooks scamming other crooks, and scumbags profiting at the expense of other scumbags, you are still left witha balance of hundreds of millions transferred from those who worked for that money to those who did nothing to deserve it, by the force of misleading claims and impossible promises.

And what good has bitcoin brought to mankind?  Savings of a few % in the purchases of trinkets from Newegg and Overstock?

Bitcoin is mostly a Chinese thing now: they make the most ASICs, they have the most miners, their exchanges have most of the volume.  But hwat has bitcoin done for human rights in China?  Or in any part of the world?

Perhaps bitcoin will one day make good on its promise to bring freedom and productivity.  But so far its score is not good at all.

You don't see it because your government is your all-inclusive udder. But look at the people from whom the money to feed you is coming. They need it.  Oh please, Jorge, don't shut it down!  

It is precisely the "people who feed me" that are most in danger of losing money to this "industry".  Aren't first world bitcoiners looking at the people of Latin America as the possible next market for bitcoin investment -- i.e., as the "greater fools" whose money will ensure their profits?

Of course I don't have the power to "shut bitcoin down", or to pop its speculative bubble (that is collapsing on its own).  All I can do is to advise those who would pay attention to me; but they are not that many either, and my powers of persuasion are no match for those of the Vers and Antonopouloses, alas.

[rpietila]

Every day, there is more freedom from oppressive governments because of Bitcoin.

Really? Could you please explain how those 100'000 people get more "freedom from oppresive governments" by using bitcoin?  Is "freedom"  just evading taxes, or buying illegal drugs, weapons, child porn -- or is there something else?

It is maybe the same as other bogus enemies, like drugs, (child) porn, tax evasion, using a mobile when you drive, ...

Their only reason of existence in the legal code is to:
1) keep people anxious and depressed due to the sheer number of regulations that they must adhere to, and the incomprehensibility of them
2) provide skeletons in the closet for all people, so that if they reach a position of power, yet start to think and act independently, they can be replaced by using this "new" "scandal" information that just surfaced from NSA servers.

My position in this debate is:
- A government that claims the right to regulate what people do to themselves, or adults between themselves, is a tyrannical government based on this alone. There is no need to claim a media label of being such. Also just because you own the media, does not make you a non-tyrant if you engage in tyranny, ie. suppression.
- People do not need to apply for permission for anything, from the government. Liberty means you are free to do stuff, and if the others are infringed in their rightful rights to life, liberty or property, then they, or the government, make you pay, or gouge your eye, or put you to jail, or death (according to the crime). But not before.

[mmortal03]

Really? Could you please explain how those 100'000 people get more "freedom from oppresive governments" by using bitcoin?  Is "freedom"  just evading taxes, or buying illegal drugs, weapons, child porn -- or is there something else?

What a loaded question.

Claim: in its 6 years of existence, bitcoin has caused 1000x more damage than benefits to the world.

The number may be exaggerated, but can you dispute it?  If you add MtGOX and all the other bitcoin scams and thefts, add the use of bitcoin in financing crime, all the people who had their life ruined for believing in the fantastic price predictions or gambling in online casinos -- you will get easily a billion dollars of damages inflicted on mankind.  Even if you subtract the cases of thieves stealing from other thieves, crooks scamming other crooks, and scumbags profiting at the expense of other scumbags, you are still left witha balance of hundreds of millions transferred from those who worked for that money to those who did nothing to deserve it, by the force of misleading claims and impossible promises.

Such hysterics. Any detrimental side of this Wild West is short term and can be tamed by technological advancement. This isn't some pie in the sky prediction. Stuff is getting solved.

And what good has bitcoin brought to mankind?  Savings of a few % in the purchases of trinkets from Newegg and Overstock?

A complete distortion.

Bitcoin is mostly a Chinese thing now: they make the most ASICs, they have the most miners, their exchanges have most of the volume.  But hwat has bitcoin done for human rights in China?  Or in any part of the world? Perhaps bitcoin will one day make good on its promise to bring freedom and productivity.  But so far its score is not good at all.

At least you give it some chance to do so. We must me making progress here.

[cbeast]

Really? Could you please explain how those 100'000 people get more "freedom from oppresive governments" by using bitcoin?  Is "freedom"  just evading taxes, or buying illegal drugs, weapons, child porn -- or is there something else?

What a loaded question.

Claim: in its 6 years of existence, bitcoin has caused 1000x more damage than benefits to the world.

The number may be exaggerated, but can you dispute it?  If you add MtGOX and all the other bitcoin scams and thefts, add the use of bitcoin in financing crime, all the people who had their life ruined for believing in the fantastic price predictions or gambling in online casinos -- you will get easily a billion dollars of damages inflicted on mankind.  Even if you subtract the cases of thieves stealing from other thieves, crooks scamming other crooks, and scumbags profiting at the expense of other scumbags, you are still left witha balance of hundreds of millions transferred from those who worked for that money to those who did nothing to deserve it, by the force of misleading claims and impossible promises.

Such hysterics. Any detrimental side of this Wild West is short term and can be tamed by technological advancement. This isn't some pie in the sky prediction. Stuff is getting solved.

And what good has bitcoin brought to mankind?  Savings of a few % in the purchases of trinkets from Newegg and Overstock?

A complete distortion.

Bitcoin is mostly a Chinese thing now: they make the most ASICs, they have the most miners, their exchanges have most of the volume.  But hwat has bitcoin done for human rights in China?  Or in any part of the world? Perhaps bitcoin will one day make good on its promise to bring freedom and productivity.  But so far its score is not good at all.

At least you give it some chance to do so. We must me making progress here.

At least some of us appreciate your efforts and/or troll baiting. 

[twiifm]

OMG my replies are removed?  Mr. Freedom is in to censorship like the hypocrite he is!!!

[BTCtrader71]

Perhaps bitcoin will one day make good on its promise to bring freedom and productivity.  But so far its score is not good at all.

For blockchain technology to live up to its full potential, it is going to take multiple steps and it's going to take time. Lots of time. The internet did not spring into existence fully formed and neither will the bitcoin economy. Jorge, I think you simply do not appreciate this fact. Some people cannot envision something until after it is already built and perhaps you are just one of those people.

Let me try to break down just a few of these steps for you. Right now, merchants are adopting bitcoin because 1) it's cheap and easy so there's little reason not to try it out and see how it goes, 2) they get their money faster compared to CC transactions and 3) they save on CC fees (which is a big deal for low margin businesses). But most of them are just dipping their toes in the water. They don't want lots of customers using it because they (the business owner) haven't yet figured out how this whole thing works. It will take some time before Joe the Store Owner becomes comfortable enough with bitcoin to decide to incentivize customers to use it instead of CCs. And once that starts to happen, we will start to see consumer adoption rise. But this process will take time. Just because it didn't happen yesterday doesn't mean it's never going to happen.

[rpietila]

Just because it didn't happen yesterday doesn't mean it's never going to happen.

And the corollary: if there's a mechanism that makes it happen, and yet it has not happened yet,

=> IT WILL SURELY HAPPEN.

This is the whole point of the whole thread. Elsewhere I'm talking about probabilities and stuff, and that's where I really excel. This thread is simple: if it grows by design, and you cannot kill it, it will take over the world, and the question is only about that of timing. Or altering the premises. Many critics cannot go that far though, or generally to anything else except USD/BTC.

[nanobrain]

I'm just dying to hear what Risto makes of this (Stamp 155 and falling).

[JorgeStolfi]

I'm just dying to hear what Risto makes of this (Stamp 155 and falling).

Haven't you heard of the latest technical improvement to the protocol? The development team determined that price does not matter.

[rpietila]

I'm just dying to hear what Risto makes of this (Stamp 155 and falling).

Blockchain, as a technology, is indestructible. A reasonable starting point is to understand that crypto is here to stay, and no laws or wars can stop it. Any individual cryptocoin, Bitcoin included, has challenges particular to it, and local laws and wars may prove detrimental to individuals' wealth, as well as life.

People can only learn more about Bitcoin, unlearning is not possible. With any technology, invention or innovation, there is an adoption curve that is the aggregate of all the people's individual propensities of learning about a new thing, deciding to use it, trying it, and amplifying their usage to significant levels. On average, the process from first hearing about something, to trying it, takes 2 years. From trying to actual adoption, we might add 1 more year.

The current number of Bitcoin owners is likely a paltry 1-2 million. Even smaller is the number of people who actively use Bitcoin in their life. The first number, at least, has not grown significantly in 2014. Enthusiasm has given way to apathy, evidenced by both price and volume of trades lagging far behind their highs.

Meanwhile, the 2 years average delay from first hearing to first trial, is slowly becoming fulfilled in hundreds of millions of people. There were millions who heard about the bubble in 2011, and their "2 years" started counting. Not enough of them were ready to buy in 2012, which was still a year of slow price appreciation. But in 2013, the great advances were made by the people who had had 2 years to ensure themselves that it was not a fly-by-night. In 2012, the global media coverage about Bitcoin was tiny, but in 2013 all changed. In two years, we are talking about 100x more people in the pipeline of becoming Bitcoin owners.

This gives rise to the exponential trendline. There is only one way to draw a trendline with the best R^2 fit (follows from the fact that goodness-of-fit is a universal criterion), and it is shown here. The number of Bitcoin users is so small at 1-2 million that the trendline should stay exponential 2 more orders of magnitude minimum.

An added reason is that because Bitcoin is money, and the exponential trendline means exponential gains for everyone involved, it makes sense to speculate and buy a large number of bitcoins instead of the fair share. (The fair share assuming worldwide adoption is BTC0.002 and assuming that only the elite of 3% world's richest and most connected buy it, BTC0.07.)

An increasing number of people are already ready to buy bitcoins. Banks, ETF's, private services, etc. have the infrastructure ready for launch. Both are waiting. Bitcoin holders are anxious, but as long as their anxiety results in them selling more bitcoins to the deep-pocket investors, the wait continues. In 2012 it continued quite long, with price going up only a little (more than 100% though).

Hearing about Bitcoin is the start of your Bitcoin pregnancy. Of these pregnancies, not all perhaps result in a healthy baby (adopting Bitcoin as your home currency), but luckily here, the time is not limited to 9 months. The average with those who currently are power users may have been 3 years (or less, since the delay is shorter with people with the early adopter mindset), but for others it may be 5 years. Miscarriages happen often, but the reverse-miscarriage is also a very typical occurrence.

We have a world-record number of Bitcoin pregnancies going on now, and hardly any births for several months already. I believe that the laws of nature and mathematics will take care that the babies will be seen in increasing numbers.

The trendline shows how much behind we are currently. The price shows the daily birth rate. I am writing this from a castle that I bought with money earned by trading Bitcoin based on the very premise I have explained to you here.

I believe that the next one might carry us north of $10,000. The longer time we spend here, the more explosive it gets. The supermove from $2 to $266 (133x price appreciation) took 17 months. Extrapolate that with the starting point of $340 in 2014-4-11.

You read it, right?

You understood it?

You can say that something in the last 5 months has disproven something that I have claimed in it?

If the answer is NO, NO, NO, please do not post again. This is a self-moderated thread for a reason.

Before replying, read it once again. It is one of the good posts among my 1000+ existing.

PS. I have seen both of the other big exchanges hitting lower values. It only happens when you are in risk of losing your money (which happened re: MtGox). Don't want to go there again. Even if Stamp hits $0, I am only buying OTC.

[rpietila]

I believe that the next one might carry us north of $10,000. The longer time we spend here, the more explosive it gets. The supermove from $2 to $266 (133x price appreciation) took 17 months. Extrapolate that with the starting point of $340 in 2014-4-11.

You can say that something in the last 5 months has disproven something that I have claimed in it?

Well, this was easy. It is pretty clear now that the starting point and value have changed. If you can make that the main point of the posting and make fun of it, please do it elsewhere.

[Jesus Coin]

Matthew 7:15
Beware of false prophets, who come to you in sheep's clothing but inwardly are ravenous wolves.

[cbeast]

Matthew 7:15
Beware of false prophets, who come to you in sheep's clothing but inwardly are ravenous wolves.

Bitcoin 2:15 Beware of false profits who come to you in cryptographic format but inwardly are inflationary fiat.

[abercrombie]

[nanobrain]

I'm just dying to hear what Risto makes of this (Stamp 155 and falling).

Haven't you heard of the latest technical improvement to the protocol? The development team determined that price does not matter.

"For the time being, certainly, it had been found necessary to make a readjustment of rations (Squealer always spoke of it as a "readjustment," never as a "reduction"), but in comparison with the days of Jones, the improvement was enormous. Reading out the figures in a shrill, rapid voice, he proved to them in detail that they had more oats, more hay, more turnips than they had had in Jones's day, that they worked shorter hours, that their drinking water was of better quality, that they lived longer, that a larger proportion of their young ones survived infancy, and that they had more straw in their stalls and suffered less from fleas. The animals believed every word of it. Truth to tell, Jones and all he stood for had almost faded out of their memories. They knew that life nowadays was harsh and bare, that they were often hungry and often cold, and that they were usually working when they were not asleep. But doubtless it had been worse in the old days. They were glad to believe so. Besides, in those days they had been slaves and now they were free, and that made all the difference, as Squealer did not fail to point out."

Animal Farm, Chapter 9

(although pretty much the whole book is fast becoming a parallel to BTC).

[nanobrain]

I'm just dying to hear what Risto makes of this (Stamp 155 and falling).

Blockchain, as a technology, is indestructible. A reasonable starting point is to understand that crypto is here to stay, and no laws or wars can stop it. Any individual cryptocoin, Bitcoin included, has challenges particular to it, and local laws and wars may prove detrimental to individuals' wealth, as well as life.

People can only learn more about Bitcoin, unlearning is not possible. With any technology, invention or innovation, there is an adoption curve that is the aggregate of all the people's individual propensities of learning about a new thing, deciding to use it, trying it, and amplifying their usage to significant levels. On average, the process from first hearing about something, to trying it, takes 2 years. From trying to actual adoption, we might add 1 more year.

The current number of Bitcoin owners is likely a paltry 1-2 million. Even smaller is the number of people who actively use Bitcoin in their life. The first number, at least, has not grown significantly in 2014. Enthusiasm has given way to apathy, evidenced by both price and volume of trades lagging far behind their highs.

Meanwhile, the 2 years average delay from first hearing to first trial, is slowly becoming fulfilled in hundreds of millions of people. There were millions who heard about the bubble in 2011, and their "2 years" started counting. Not enough of them were ready to buy in 2012, which was still a year of slow price appreciation. But in 2013, the great advances were made by the people who had had 2 years to ensure themselves that it was not a fly-by-night. In 2012, the global media coverage about Bitcoin was tiny, but in 2013 all changed. In two years, we are talking about 100x more people in the pipeline of becoming Bitcoin owners.

This gives rise to the exponential trendline. There is only one way to draw a trendline with the best R^2 fit (follows from the fact that goodness-of-fit is a universal criterion), and it is shown here. The number of Bitcoin users is so small at 1-2 million that the trendline should stay exponential 2 more orders of magnitude minimum.

An added reason is that because Bitcoin is money, and the exponential trendline means exponential gains for everyone involved, it makes sense to speculate and buy a large number of bitcoins instead of the fair share. (The fair share assuming worldwide adoption is BTC0.002 and assuming that only the elite of 3% world's richest and most connected buy it, BTC0.07.)

An increasing number of people are already ready to buy bitcoins. Banks, ETF's, private services, etc. have the infrastructure ready for launch. Both are waiting. Bitcoin holders are anxious, but as long as their anxiety results in them selling more bitcoins to the deep-pocket investors, the wait continues. In 2012 it continued quite long, with price going up only a little (more than 100% though).

Hearing about Bitcoin is the start of your Bitcoin pregnancy. Of these pregnancies, not all perhaps result in a healthy baby (adopting Bitcoin as your home currency), but luckily here, the time is not limited to 9 months. The average with those who currently are power users may have been 3 years (or less, since the delay is shorter with people with the early adopter mindset), but for others it may be 5 years. Miscarriages happen often, but the reverse-miscarriage is also a very typical occurrence.

We have a world-record number of Bitcoin pregnancies going on now, and hardly any births for several months already. I believe that the laws of nature and mathematics will take care that the babies will be seen in increasing numbers.

The trendline shows how much behind we are currently. The price shows the daily birth rate. I am writing this from a castle that I bought with money earned by trading Bitcoin based on the very premise I have explained to you here.

I believe that the next one might carry us north of $10,000. The longer time we spend here, the more explosive it gets. The supermove from $2 to $266 (133x price appreciation) took 17 months. Extrapolate that with the starting point of $340 in 2014-4-11.

You read it, right?

You understood it?

You can say that something in the last 5 months has disproven something that I have claimed in it?

If the answer is NO, NO, NO, please do not post again. This is a self-moderated thread for a reason.

Before replying, read it once again. It is one of the good posts among my 1000+ existing.

PS. I have seen both of the other big exchanges hitting lower values. It only happens when you are in risk of losing your money (which happened re: MtGox). Don't want to go there again. Even if Stamp hits $0, I am only buying OTC.

Risto,
Glad to see you managed to get the 'castle' into your response, although I think many here would argue it is actually a manor - castle's tend by definition to be built of stone and have turrets but I digress.

For all these pregnancies you speak of there has been some pretty high profile abortions, miscarriages, SIDS and infanticides, which unfortunately tend to hog headlines far more than pregnancies (which are, lets face it, ten a penny in the real world). 

So, we return to perceptions and Jorge's argument that 'new blood' ie new markets (new buyers) are needed.  China is falling away, the mainstream in the West thinks BTC is a bit of joke after the last 12 months after the (continuing) run of disasters, frauds and robberies.  So, where are these new buyers coming from?

Perhaps we could get the 'man in the street' interested?  But wait, you don't use exchanges, you buy OTC.  This sounds like the sort of privileged two tier system I thought BTC was going to eradicate. Reading this sort of attitude I can imagine the how the 'man in the street'  may feel.  (I posted the quote from Animal Farm above because I think you should reread it.)

And what of the miners, who are switching off and calling it a day -- doesn't that threaten the 'indestructible' network? 

I popped into the forum to see what was happening and saw that you were "calling the bottom" so assumed this involved some numbers, clearly not.  I recall 12 months back you were calling the next bull run as being in May (then Aug, Sept, Nov etc) in between which you unsuccessfully predicted a range of 'bottoms', so your record (I'm sure you are aware) is a bit tarnished at this point.  I really don't care, forgive you your mistakes and respect your right to make as many predictions as you want.

But please, if you love BTC so much, realise perhaps your behaviour may be actually causing some of the PR issues we encounter.

[rpietila]

We seem to have a different mindset, which makes responding to your amenable letter either a pleasant yet unfortunately pointless exercise, or a brief matter. I acknowledge that you may have a point, and will drop the word "may" when Bitcoin is no longer useful for me for its intended purpose(s), and assume you do likewise when the exchange rate appreciation to at least $3,000 per BTC proves my point to you in the realm that you are comfortable with. 

[Dusty]

Really? Could you please explain how those 100'000 people get more "freedom from oppresive governments" by using bitcoin?  Is "freedom"  just evading taxes, or buying illegal drugs, weapons, child porn -- or is there something else?

Claim: in its 6 years of existence, bitcoin has caused 1000x more damage than benefits to the world.

Bitcoin has given me hope to be one day free from the ideas that governs your way of thinking.

Thanks for continually remind me it with every post you make.