rpietila Calling the Bottom

[rpietila]

Blockchain, as a technology, is indestructible. A reasonable starting point is to understand that crypto is here to stay, and no laws or wars can stop it. Any individual cryptocoin, Bitcoin included, has challenges particular to it, and local laws and wars may prove detrimental to individuals' wealth, as well as life.

People can only learn more about Bitcoin, unlearning is not possible. With any technology, invention or innovation, there is an adoption curve that is the aggregate of all the people's individual propensities of learning about a new thing, deciding to use it, trying it, and amplifying their usage to significant levels. On average, the process from first hearing about something, to trying it, takes 2 years. From trying to actual adoption, we might add 1 more year.

The current number of Bitcoin owners is likely a paltry 1-2 million. Even smaller is the number of people who actively use Bitcoin in their life. The first number, at least, has not grown significantly in 2014. Enthusiasm has given way to apathy, evidenced by both price and volume of trades lagging far behind their highs.

Meanwhile, the 2 years average delay from first hearing to first trial, is slowly becoming fulfilled in hundreds of millions of people. There were millions who heard about the bubble in 2011, and their "2 years" started counting. Not enough of them were ready to buy in 2012, which was still a year of slow price appreciation. But in 2013, the great advances were made by the people who had had 2 years to ensure themselves that it was not a fly-by-night. In 2012, the global media coverage about Bitcoin was tiny, but in 2013 all changed. In two years, we are talking about 100x more people in the pipeline of becoming Bitcoin owners.

This gives rise to the exponential trendline. There is only one way to draw a trendline with the best R^2 fit (follows from the fact that goodness-of-fit is a universal criterion), and it is shown here. The number of Bitcoin users is so small at 1-2 million that the trendline should stay exponential 2 more orders of magnitude minimum.

An added reason is that because Bitcoin is money, and the exponential trendline means exponential gains for everyone involved, it makes sense to speculate and buy a large number of bitcoins instead of the fair share. (The fair share assuming worldwide adoption is BTC0.002 and assuming that only the elite of 3% world's richest and most connected buy it, BTC0.07.)

An increasing number of people are already ready to buy bitcoins. Banks, ETF's, private services, etc. have the infrastructure ready for launch. Both are waiting. Bitcoin holders are anxious, but as long as their anxiety results in them selling more bitcoins to the deep-pocket investors, the wait continues. In 2012 it continued quite long, with price going up only a little (more than 100% though).

Hearing about Bitcoin is the start of your Bitcoin pregnancy. Of these pregnancies, not all perhaps result in a healthy baby (adopting Bitcoin as your home currency), but luckily here, the time is not limited to 9 months. The average with those who currently are power users may have been 3 years (or less, since the delay is shorter with people with the early adopter mindset), but for others it may be 5 years. Miscarriages happen often, but the reverse-miscarriage is also a very typical occurrence.

We have a world-record number of Bitcoin pregnancies going on now, and hardly any births for several months already. I believe that the laws of nature and mathematics will take care that the babies will be seen in increasing numbers.

The trendline shows how much behind we are currently. The price shows the daily birth rate. I am writing this from a castle that I bought with money earned by trading Bitcoin based on the very premise I have explained to you here.

I believe that the next one might carry us north of $10,000. The longer time we spend here, the more explosive it gets. The supermove from $2 to $266 (133x price appreciation) took 17 months. Extrapolate that with the starting point of $340 in 2014-4-11.

[JimboToronto]

Well said. +1

[spazzdla]

A good read, a lot of the people I know that know of bitcoin do not like it.  However... they think some hacker will hack all of the coins in existance.. the CEO will sell them all...  and other idiotic fears.  Once these fears are proven to the idiots(there are a lot) to be moronic they will go panic buy mode.

[Newscastix]

This is spot on!

It took me 2 weeks from hearing about bitcoin to owning it.

[JimboToronto]

It took me 2 weeks from hearing about bitcoin to owning it.

2 months for me... one to research it thoroughly to find out it wasn't a scam, and another to figure out how to actually obtain some, watching helplessly as the price went from $15 to over $60.

[Miz4r]

I have a large short position on plus500 with leverage of 1:17 since august 12th. I'm currently on game with 81000 coins, which I don't own. Yes that's right 81000. Will it make a dent? 

It will if someone else takes a 1:20 long position with 100k coins before you can close your shorts. But not in the direction you are looking for.

[nope491]

I hope that your prediction will come true, anyway I'm holding my coins without any fear of the current downtrend.

[Yololintian]

I also think its bottom. For the first time (I have only been trading bitcoin for 8 months), I have witnessed a significant amount of speculators turn from bull to bear for more than a few hours. Everyone on tradingview thinks we are going lower. Its like a huge change in sentiment from a few days ago, where everyone was sure 560 would hold. Other times, bad news would bring the price down but people weren't forecasting moving into the 200s and below. The general sentiment just feels like it should during capitulation.

[johnyj]

Pictures of your castle? 

[fonzie]

Blockchain, as a technology, is indestructible. A reasonable starting point is to understand that crypto is here to stay, and no laws or wars can stop it. Any individual cryptocoin, Bitcoin included, has challenges particular to it, and local laws and wars may prove detrimental to individuals' wealth, as well as life.

People can only learn more about Bitcoin, unlearning is not possible. With any technology, invention or innovation, there is an adoption curve that is the aggregate of all the people's individual propensities of learning about a new thing, deciding to use it, trying it, and amplifying their usage to significant levels. On average, the process from first hearing about something, to trying it, takes 2 years. From trying to actual adoption, we might add 1 more year.

The current number of Bitcoin owners is likely a paltry 1-2 million. Even smaller is the number of people who actively use Bitcoin in their life. The first number, at least, has not grown significantly in 2014. Enthusiasm has given way to apathy, evidenced by both price and volume of trades lagging far behind their highs.

Meanwhile, the 2 years average delay from first hearing to first trial, is slowly becoming fulfilled in hundreds of millions of people. There were millions who heard about the bubble in 2011, and their "2 years" started counting. Not enough of them were ready to buy in 2012, which was still a year of slow price appreciation. But in 2013, the great advances were made by the people who had had 2 years to ensure themselves that it was not a fly-by-night. In 2012, the global media coverage about Bitcoin was tiny, but in 2013 all changed. In two years, we are talking about 100x more people in the pipeline of becoming Bitcoin owners.

This gives rise to the exponential trendline. There is only one way to draw a trendline with the best R^2 fit (follows from the fact that goodness-of-fit is a universal criterion), and it is shown here. The number of Bitcoin users is so small at 1-2 million that the trendline should stay exponential 2 more orders of magnitude minimum.

An added reason is that because Bitcoin is money, and the exponential trendline means exponential gains for everyone involved, it makes sense to speculate and buy a large number of bitcoins instead of the fair share. (The fair share assuming worldwide adoption is BTC0.002 and assuming that only the elite of 3% world's richest and most connected buy it, BTC0.07.)

An increasing number of people are already ready to buy bitcoins. Banks, ETF's, private services, etc. have the infrastructure ready for launch. Both are waiting. Bitcoin holders are anxious, but as long as their anxiety results in them selling more bitcoins to the deep-pocket investors, the wait continues. In 2012 it continued quite long, with price going up only a little (more than 100% though).

Hearing about Bitcoin is the start of your Bitcoin pregnancy. Of these pregnancies, not all perhaps result in a healthy baby (adopting Bitcoin as your home currency), but luckily here, the time is not limited to 9 months. The average with those who currently are power users may have been 3 years (or less, since the delay is shorter with people with the early adopter mindset), but for others it may be 5 years. Miscarriages happen often, but the reverse-miscarriage is also a very typical occurrence.

We have a world-record number of Bitcoin pregnancies going on now, and hardly any births for several months already. I believe that the laws of nature and mathematics will take care that the babies will be seen in increasing numbers.

The trendline shows how much behind we are currently. The price shows the daily birth rate. I am writing this from a castle that I bought with money earned by trading Bitcoin based on the very premise I have explained to you here.

I believe that the next one might carry us north of $10,000. The longer time we spend here, the more explosive it gets. The supermove from $2 to $266 (133x price appreciation) took 17 months. Extrapolate that with the starting point of $340 in 2014-4-11.

I have a large short position on plus500 with leverage of 1:17 since august 12th. I'm currently on game with 81000 coins, which I don't own. Yes that's right 81000. Will it make a dent?  

Ps. Also have shorts on gold and silver with leverage of 1:152.

Mallax 6 times by now

Pics or it didn´t happen. AFAIK Plus500 would not allow you to open a position up to 81000BTC. During the last time when i had open positions about 200-300BTC and were in the profit zone, they cut down available  leverage day by day from 1:17 to1:10 to 1:4 and finally 1:2 after 2-3 weeks. Largest single positions that can be opened right now is 185BTC. Also your starting capital would have to be around 1,2 mio. dollars.... I doubt that you would trust a company like Plus500 with that sum, they have no effective security measures at all.

BTW: You´re gonna get short squeezed anyway in the next 72h if you really have any positions right now. 

[Paashaas]

That was a fine read and a good start of the weekend!

[dyland]

Pictures of your castle? 

Castle of who? Who's castle?

http://bitcoinmagazine.com/10625/cryptocurrency-castle/

Risto's. The OP.

[windjc]

Blockchain, as a technology, is indestructible. A reasonable starting point is to understand that crypto is here to stay, and no laws or wars can stop it. Any individual cryptocoin, Bitcoin included, has challenges particular to it, and local laws and wars may prove detrimental to individuals' wealth, as well as life.

People can only learn more about Bitcoin, unlearning is not possible. With any technology, invention or innovation, there is an adoption curve that is the aggregate of all the people's individual propensities of learning about a new thing, deciding to use it, trying it, and amplifying their usage to significant levels. On average, the process from first hearing about something, to trying it, takes 2 years. From trying to actual adoption, we might add 1 more year.

The current number of Bitcoin owners is likely a paltry 1-2 million. Even smaller is the number of people who actively use Bitcoin in their life. The first number, at least, has not grown significantly in 2014. Enthusiasm has given way to apathy, evidenced by both price and volume of trades lagging far behind their highs.

Meanwhile, the 2 years average delay from first hearing to first trial, is slowly becoming fulfilled in hundreds of millions of people. There were millions who heard about the bubble in 2011, and their "2 years" started counting. Not enough of them were ready to buy in 2012, which was still a year of slow price appreciation. But in 2013, the great advances were made by the people who had had 2 years to ensure themselves that it was not a fly-by-night. In 2012, the global media coverage about Bitcoin was tiny, but in 2013 all changed. In two years, we are talking about 100x more people in the pipeline of becoming Bitcoin owners.

This gives rise to the exponential trendline. There is only one way to draw a trendline with the best R^2 fit (follows from the fact that goodness-of-fit is a universal criterion), and it is shown here. The number of Bitcoin users is so small at 1-2 million that the trendline should stay exponential 2 more orders of magnitude minimum.

An added reason is that because Bitcoin is money, and the exponential trendline means exponential gains for everyone involved, it makes sense to speculate and buy a large number of bitcoins instead of the fair share. (The fair share assuming worldwide adoption is BTC0.002 and assuming that only the elite of 3% world's richest and most connected buy it, BTC0.07.)

An increasing number of people are already ready to buy bitcoins. Banks, ETF's, private services, etc. have the infrastructure ready for launch. Both are waiting. Bitcoin holders are anxious, but as long as their anxiety results in them selling more bitcoins to the deep-pocket investors, the wait continues. In 2012 it continued quite long, with price going up only a little (more than 100% though).

Hearing about Bitcoin is the start of your Bitcoin pregnancy. Of these pregnancies, not all perhaps result in a healthy baby (adopting Bitcoin as your home currency), but luckily here, the time is not limited to 9 months. The average with those who currently are power users may have been 3 years (or less, since the delay is shorter with people with the early adopter mindset), but for others it may be 5 years. Miscarriages happen often, but the reverse-miscarriage is also a very typical occurrence.

We have a world-record number of Bitcoin pregnancies going on now, and hardly any births for several months already. I believe that the laws of nature and mathematics will take care that the babies will be seen in increasing numbers.

The trendline shows how much behind we are currently. The price shows the daily birth rate. I am writing this from a castle that I bought with money earned by trading Bitcoin based on the very premise I have explained to you here.

I believe that the next one might carry us north of $10,000. The longer time we spend here, the more explosive it gets. The supermove from $2 to $266 (133x price appreciation) took 17 months. Extrapolate that with the starting point of $340 in 2014-4-11.

I have a large short position on plus500 with leverage of 1:17 since august 12th. I'm currently on game with 81000 coins, which I don't own. Yes that's right 81000. Will it make a dent?  

Ps. Also have shorts on gold and silver with leverage of 1:152.

Mallax 6 times by now

Pics or it didn´t happen. AFAIK Plus500 would not allow you to open a position up to 81000BTC. During the last time when i had open positions about 200-300BTC and were in the profit zone, they cut down available  leverage day by day from 1:17 to1:10 to 1:4 and finally 1:2 after 2-3 weeks. Largest single positions that can be opened right now is 185BTC. Also your starting capital would have to be around 1,2 mio. dollars.... I doubt that you would trust a company like Plus500 with that sum, they have no effective security measures at all.

BTW: You´re gonna get short squeezed anyway in the next 72h if you really have any positions right now. 

Thank you Fonzie for smacking down this teenagers bullshit

[fonzie]

You´re welcome. Obvious talking bullshit  is is obvious.

[fonzie]

Who the fuck you think your fucking with?
If you only knew who I am 

[GrandMasterB]

The big thing is regulation. Once you factor in govt taxes adoption rate by large merch will slow. I hear Ebay is poised to accept. The question is if these companies are looking at a shirt run bypass on taxes or if they are serious about this. The govt has a whiff and they carry a double edge sword.

[Schickeria]

Who the fuck you think your fucking with?
If you only knew who I am  

Jimmy Buffet?

[segeln]

@rpietila
great writing!
hope your predictions come true!
Thanks !

[InwardContour]

I always follow rpietila predictions and until now I have never been disappointed by them,
I'm hodling hard for the next months no matter what will happen.

[Lauda]

Very nicely written indeed. One of the problems in the Crypto world is impatience.
The next explosion might be very huge indeed, I'm just waiting for that long promised ETF to launch.