rpietila Calling the Bottom

[btcxyzzz]

I'm starting to be pessimistic about it all, and I even think we may not witness next Bitcoin bubble in near future... Here's why:

• All the geeks and early adopters are in. Who is still left-out is ignorant mass which can't comprehend Bitcoin incentives over Paypal, nor they can see it actually heals the worldwide economy. Yes, we're waiting for a big investors too, but I doubt they will enter such unregulated market which is public enemy nr. 1 of states and banking system. Finally, billionares are billionares just because of the corrupted fiat money system, and actually they kind of chopping off the branch they're sitting on.
• Price of Bitcoin: new Bitcoins are released every day and we need about 1.5mil$/day just to keep the price stagnant. It's really not the same like Bitcoin was 100$ before the previous bubble. Much more fiat is needed to fuel the rise. You can see it as 5x more people is needed to be aware of it all. I doubt there is 5x more people in cryptos now than there were in October 2013.
• Remember, previous Bitcoin bubble was fuelled mostly by Mt.Gox failure (someone artificially made USD credit on their site and was constantly buying) + "China is coming" effect. Those were 2 big (positive) circumstances, and it was pure luck for Bitcoin's price, so it wasn't too much about the real demand, it was about stealing and speculator's game.
• Too many altcoin parasites which are dispersing energy (and money). Actually I realised maybe even it would be better for worldwide economy that Bitcoin stayed closed source, forged in honest very small community of most advanced developers.
• Big holders may decide that they exit the game and effectively kill the price to the ground. Specially, I am affraid of 1 mil BTC owned by Satoshi. Would be good for Bitcoin if he is not among us anymore so the private keys are lost

Sadly, I realize Bitcoin is "liberalist wet dream", but can easiliy failed one. Combination of ignorant mass which is easily manipulated + interests of elite that is state and banksters, and I see it may really stay on the margin of worldwide economy, say it takes only about 10-20% of electronic payments and money transfers worldwide. That's not a win, that is huge fail compared to what we were thinking it may become.

So I played the Devil's advocate this time, and ask me what do I think about alts? Right now, they're fuckin' dead, including "silver to bitcoin's gold". Only chance for them is to rise along with Bitcoin. Astronomic rise of Darkcoin was not the healthy demand by the masses for spending it, it was speculator's game. After the initial boom and crash, we will see a slow decline, every fairly successful altcoin has the same history and future: One bubble and then the second one purely dependent on Bitcoin.

That was just my analysis and discussion is welcome. I just don't wanna hear I'm trolling or fudding, believe me I'm the one who was tirelessly promoting the whole story from the early days of 2012, and I made quite bucks out from it, but I'm starting to think the "golden age" of cryptos is over.

Community is not focused and I doubt we can heal the economy and win the war this way.

[cbeast]

I'm starting to be pessimistic about it all, and I even think we may not witness next Bitcoin bubble in near future... Here's why:

You made all very good points. But you forget one important thing: Cryptocurrency is a new fundamental technology. Those don't get forgotten. Somebody will do something with it. Bitcoin is philosophically the best and most useful version. There were several attempts beforehand with parts of the technology. Even our current banking system is a distant ancestor. Bitcoin has evolved to fit an important need. It will die someday as all technologies eventually become antiquated. But that time is not now.

[exocytosis]

The number of Bitcoin users is so small at 1-2 million that the trendline should stay exponential 2 more orders of magnitude minimum.

It should? Says who? You?

So the "trendline" needs to follow your wishes?

Face it. Bitcoin is failing. The average person is smart enough to stay away from this speculative ponzi scheme.

[bigtimespaghetti]

I'm starting to be pessimistic about it all, and I even think we may not witness next Bitcoin bubble in near future... Here's why:

You made all very good points. But you forget one important thing: Cryptocurrency is a new fundamental technology. Those don't get forgotten. Somebody will do something with it. Bitcoin is philosophically the best and most useful version. There were several attempts beforehand with parts of the technology. Even our current banking system is a distant ancestor. Bitcoin has evolved to fit an important need. It will die someday as all technologies eventually become antiquated. But that time is not now.

Couldn't agree more. Interesting times ahead.

[Ibian]

I think the price will go straight to 1k in one day when it starts to go up. Yes, that would be the start, the very first day of a new order of magnitude in price.

Big money want in as cheap as possible. When they can no longer push the price down (past whatever psychological level they think is safe) and there are no more coins to be had outside the exchanges, they will pump the price just enough for the masses who are waiting on the sideline to panic panic panic buy.

Could happen tomorrow. Could happen in a year. But the law of supply and demand is absolute.

And to the guy calling for the death of Satoshi, I hope you lose all your coins.

[giveBTCpls]

Rpietila, wouldnt you agree that we need ebay in the game to reach 10k+ tier prices? Without it, most people will remain ignorant about Bitcoin. Once we see "pay with bitcoin" in ebay, then that's it, shit gets real the next day.

[kireinaha]

Rpietila, wouldnt you agree that we need ebay in the game to reach 10k+ tier prices? Without it, most people will remain ignorant about Bitcoin. Once we see "pay with bitcoin" in ebay, then that's it, shit gets real the next day.

And why exactly would ebay undercut its Paypal cash cow by allowing users to pay with bitcoin?

And even if they did, they would still act as the clearing house and arbitrator for transactions on their site. You think they'll just provide this service for free out of the kindness of their hearts?

[Ibian]

Rpietila, wouldnt you agree that we need ebay in the game to reach 10k+ tier prices? Without it, most people will remain ignorant about Bitcoin. Once we see "pay with bitcoin" in ebay, then that's it, shit gets real the next day.

Current drop seems to be due to a number of things. Ebay, Winletf and <random bullish event> will probably happen all at once too to give us a proper start to the rally. It won't be any one thing.

[exocytosis]

Bitcoin rallies died when Willy went out of service.

[damnek]

Bitcoin rallies died when Willy went out of service.

We had a rally in the 2nd half of May

[ArticMine]

amen

I believe that the next one might carry us north of $10,000. The longer time we spend here, the more explosive it gets. The supermove from $2 to $266 (133x price appreciation) took 17 months. Extrapolate that with the starting point of $340 in 2014-4-11.

45220 XBT/USD on 2015-09-11 

[bclcjunkie]

Risto,

i'd love to hear your thoughts on the following valid points:

I believe that the next one might carry us north of $10,000. The longer time we spend here, the more explosive it gets. The supermove from $2 to $266 (133x price appreciation) took 17 months. Extrapolate that with the starting point of $340 in 2014-4-11.

why do you ignore the very valid theory that the willybot manipulation was the main cause of most of the explosive growth up to $1200? And everything since then has been from people HODLing... it's very possible that the true price of BTC without manipulation should be still much lower than it currently is... I wouldn't bet the farm on it either way, I'm just saying...

I'm starting to be pessimistic about it all, and I even think we may not witness next Bitcoin bubble in near future... Here's why:

• Remember, previous Bitcoin bubble was fuelled mostly by Mt.Gox failure (someone artificially made USD credit on their site and was constantly buying) + "China is coming" effect. Those were 2 big (positive) circumstances, and it was pure luck for Bitcoin's price, so it wasn't too much about the real demand, it was about stealing and speculator's game.

just wanted to chime in... yes we had rallies and they were so pathetic compared to what willy managed to pull off... which only proves the above, that you need shit ton of real fiat to get there unless you have another mtgox fraud where a bot can spend imaginary dollars.. also adoption rate will take years for all those hoarded coins to get diluted..

Bitcoin rallies died when Willy went out of service.

We had a rally in the 2nd half of May

[johnyj]

Those who are holding the coins will not get affected, they hold it at least for years, only those short term speculators cares

I'm not sure where is the bottom but I have buying order every $30 apart, all the way down to zero, just some fiat earned by trading bitcoins, so even it drops to zero I still lose nothing

[danielW]

I thought the price to $1000 was all because Chinese were using Bitcoin to get money out of China. Now its supposed to be because of a willybot.

I did not believe the first and I dont believe the second now. I dont believe the theories have solid foundations.  

[Melbustus]

Rpietila, wouldnt you agree that we need ebay in the game to reach 10k+ tier prices? Without it, most people will remain ignorant about Bitcoin. Once we see "pay with bitcoin" in ebay, then that's it, shit gets real the next day.

And why exactly would ebay undercut its Paypal cash cow by allowing users to pay with bitcoin?

And even if they did, they would still act as the clearing house and arbitrator for transactions on their site. You think they'll just provide this service for free out of the kindness of their hearts?

Don't be such a nit. PayPal is not evil or particularly myopic. They deal in a line of business that has MANY regulatory and fraud risks, and they're not perfect. Hence their actions can be very unfortunate/aggressive for people from time to time. I used to sell on eBay and have been screwed by PayPal more than once, but I understand the business.

To directly answer your two questions given the above understanding:
1) Because they're not stupid and recognize that they'll eventually have to. They'll figure out a way to make money on bitcoin (not as much as on CC's, but not zero), and they don't want to be Kodak or Blockbuster.
2) Yes, they would indeed still act as arbiter. So what? They'd be a centralized bitcoin processor. The net result is that more people would end up being bitcoin holders. For transactions that didn't go bad (ie, the vast majority), people would be able to move their bitcoin off of PayPal no problem. On-blockchain bitcoin distributed more widely is what adoption is all about. PayPal can single-handedly juice that trend more than most other orgs.

[btcxyzzz]

Face it. Bitcoin is failing. The average person is smart enough to stay away from this speculative ponzi scheme.

Still speculative, but not Ponzi at all! Read about Ponzi.

[btcxyzzz]

And to the guy calling for the death of Satoshi, I hope you lose all your coins.

Chillout I was kidding and even I put some smileys...

[freedomno1]

Always good for a nice speculative analysis Rpietila

In alignment with your speculation this is since its backed with trendlines.
Anyways from interested to adopter for me was a day while I did my research from that point of initial information to purchasing took 5 days but it was when wire transfers were still processed through bitcoin related services.
Then a few more days to join the forums.
Now with all the damn verification procedures it would take much longer.

Let Bitcoin grow.

[segeln]

to the confused posters (eg, above,, and oka.krell)
the argument is that the bottom was on Apr 11,2014...
if that was not the bottom, then the price will have to go below the price on Apr 11, 2014.

good Observation!

[bryant.coleman]

When I first bought my coins (for $15 per coin) I never thought that they will give me more than 100% returns. But right now, they have given me returns of more than 3,000%. I have cashed out a small part of my stash, but will continue to hold on to the remaining coins for at least 5 years more.