rpietila Calling the Bottom

[spiderbrain]

Great thread, guys, thanks, almost no idiots!

[RAJSALLIN]

My bitcoin pregnancy was 1 year

[KarmaShark]

A lot of pessimism here. The bottom is coming at this rate, once you have been through a few 'bubble' cycles with Bitcoin you start to see the same emotions in people emanating out, over and over and over again. The usernames change, the fear is worded slightly differently each time, but the underlying emotions are the same.

[GreekGeek]

A lot of pessimism here. The bottom is coming at this rate, once you have been through a few 'bubble' cycles with Bitcoin you start to see the same emotions in people emanating out, over and over and over again. The usernames change, the fear is worded slightly differently each time, but the underlying emotions are the same.

+1

[iourzzz]

Thank you, Risto and everybody. Very interesting thoughts.

The adoption is definitely going on, may be not so fast as it could be at the moment but fast enough.

Surely not everybody from new people believe in Bitcoin to invest now taking into account the recent behavior of the market and all the uncertainty with possible harsh regulations but they are quite ready to use it as a currency at least for transferring the value quite easy and cheap. Just few days ago an old friend from totally different world asked me an advice how to convert some bitcoins into fiat as she was payed with it.

Even without ETFs and wall street money there are chances for a new bubble mode any time soon and it can happen suddenly. All we need is patience.

[giveBTCpls]

Im talking about eBay. How is PayPal required? Couldn't the seller just put a BTC address to deposit on there and hire a 3rd party escrow with it or something?

[kutaka]

We won't see more than 5k until next halving. Too much new fiat is needed everyday to support bigger price.

[molecular]

This is spot on!

It took me 2 weeks from hearing about bitcoin to owning it.

I'm sorry, but if your case (2 weeks "incubation") was the norm than OP would not be "spot on": The whole story is based on a very long incubation time of 2 years. I'm not saying rpietila is wrong, just that your "2 weeks" don't fit his story.

[TheJuice]

When I first bought my coins (for $15 per coin) I never thought that they will give me more than 100% returns. But right now, they have given me returns of more than 3,000%. I have cashed out a small part of my stash, but will continue to hold on to the remaining coins for at least 5 years more.

When I bought at $2 a coin I was ecstatic when I quadrupled my investment. I cashed out 50%...

Now I only HOLD and buy. I have a series of predefined small cash out spots as we go up.

[molecular]

We won't see more than 5k until next halving. Too much new fiat is needed everyday to support bigger price.

I don't agree with that. A flood of newbs could easily provide enough fiat.

[vuduchyld]

Even without ETFs and wall street money there are chances for a new bubble mode any time soon and it can happen suddenly. All we need is patience.

I agree with this.  Patience is your best friend, here.  

Speaking of wall street, when I see posts like this one:

Transactions excluding popular addresses 7 day average is surging now, around 20% growth in past 4 weeks:

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?showDataPoints=false&timespan=2year&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

Looks like it is at the highest level now since December. Perhaps a similar setup to August 2013 when it also started to break out upwards and regain levels last seen in the April 2013 growth phase. Well, we'll see if it continues upwards into the end of the year...

it makes me pretty willing to believe in a manipulation scenario.  Don't we have GABI that opened up on 8/1 and plans to start trading 9/1?  Wouldn't it be best for them to manipulate the price down throughout August, so that they can have a big run starting September 1?  Global Advisors hedgies predicted that they could see $200mm invested in the fund.  But just a quick glance would tell you that they currently invest about ten times that in a variety of other vehicles.  They would certainly have enough money to engage in some practices that would influence downward movement.  

Wouldn't it be best for them to start trading 9/1 with BTC at a low price, show potential investors their outsized returns for the first 30 days, and then use those returns to convince others to throw money at them?

Throw in a little Etherium-related dump (shit, those guys probably all golf together), and here we are.

For me, this last couple of weeks has been nothing but a buying opportunity.  I should really thank them.

As for whether or not this is the bottom:
--typical fundamental analysis (earnings, assets, etc...) don't really apply
--analysis of the value of the network (Metcalfe's Law-related pricing theory) would indicate we are likely getting damn close
--technical analysis is not my bailiwick, but I'm trying to be open-minded in the absence of tools that I might normally use.  Looking at the work done by some of the people who are, if nothing else, capable of explaining it to a dummy like me (RyaninDaClem (sorry, screwed up the caps), CryptoWaves) indicates that we may not be at THE bottom, but we might be pretty close on some indicators

rpietila may be off by a period of a few days or a couple of weeks.  He may be off by some factor of 5-10%.  But I'd strongly suspect that anybody who bought when this thread hit the board is really unlikely to get a big, long-term dent in their portfolio because of it.  Somebody might be tempted to cry and wail if the price drops to $460 next Monday or Tuesday (I can hear the wailing now--"Risto was wrong!"), but if you look at it more like a swing trader, 6-8 weeks from now, or if you look at it in March of 2016, I'd suspect this bottom call is actually going to look pretty good!

[pandacoin]

We are close to bottom again. I think these times are last buy opportunity before next bubble starts. I try to expand my BTC stash, if it goes around at <600 for 2 months I'll be glad. I still don't have enough BTC. It's never enough.

[Newscastix]

This is spot on!

It took me 2 weeks from hearing about bitcoin to owning it.

I'm sorry, but if your case (2 weeks "incubation") was the norm than OP would not be "spot on": The whole story is based on a very long incubation time of 2 years. I'm not saying rpietila is wrong, just that your "2 weeks" don't fit his story.

I didn't say my case was the norm. It took me two weeks to know "i should get at least a coin or two" and then i only got a small amount. Research continued thereafter. I still see ristos explanation as the norm.

[Peter R]

Don't we have GABI that opened up on 8/1 and plans to start trading 9/1?  Wouldn't it be best for them to manipulate the price down throughout August, so that they can have a big run starting September 1?...Throw in a little Etherium-related dump (shit, those guys probably all golf together), and here we are.

When I read your post I imagined Vitalik on the golf course with Blythe conspiring to drop the price and found the mental image quite hilarious.  If only I knew photoshop….

[Bitcopia]

Don't we have GABI that opened up on 8/1 and plans to start trading 9/1?  Wouldn't it be best for them to manipulate the price down throughout August, so that they can have a big run starting September 1?...Throw in a little Etherium-related dump (shit, those guys probably all golf together), and here we are.

When I read your post I imagined Vitalik on the golf course with Blythe conspiring to drop the price and found the mental image quite hilarious.  If only I knew photoshop….

  Thanks for the image.

It makes sense for a fund to make every effort to launch at the bottom, and between GABI and the COIN ETF, I don't think it's outside of the realm of possibility that there is an attempt to hold the market back for a little while longer. GABI trying to convince Etherium to do this for them seems rather unlikely though. And I'm pretty sure Vitalik has never swung a golf club in his life. 

[bitrider]

I'm starting to be pessimistic about it all, and I even think we may not witness next Bitcoin bubble in near future... Here's why:

Community is not focused and I doubt we can heal the economy and win the war this way.

While I understand and respect the issues you raise, it seems like a very strange time for someone who understands bitcoin to be "pessimistic about it all". 

Three years ago, when I bought my first bitcoin - if you had told me that in 2014 we would see BTC listed on bloomberg and CNBC, front page articles in the WSJ (serious articles at that), 100's of millions of VC money pouring into start-ups, famous gold bugs endorsing bitcoin, every student at MIT about to receive $100 of bitcoin, 8000 bitcoin locations to buy BTC in Argentina, ATMs    locations rapidly growing, 1/2 dozen serious btc exchange sites getting geared up, hedge funds and ETF's on the horizon, not to mention serious, large retailers accepting bitcoin around the world, and a BTC price between $500 and $1200, I would been very skeptical, and would have thought "bitcoin has far exceeded my expectations, and is moving toward success - and quickly". All the boxes I would have wanted to see checked, are being checked.

"And now I come to camp to hear the waters called muddy and the current quickened, though I see no change in the creek.  And the Hooples, certain sure that flood crest fast approaches, have begun to think keenly, I’ll get ahead of the event.  Maybe I’ll sell my claim at discount. Anything to unharness so they can head for the higher ground.  Myself, Maam, I’d be bettin that the levy’ll hold."

http://youtu.be/Y_v6f_PNf5I   

Deadwood 2X4

[Hunyadi]

I'm starting to be pessimistic about it all, and I even think we may not witness next Bitcoin bubble in near future... Here's why:

Community is not focused and I doubt we can heal the economy and win the war this way.

While I understand and respect the issues you raise, it seems like a very strange time for someone who understands bitcoin to be "pessimistic about it all". 

Three years ago, when I bought my first bitcoin - if you had told me that in 2014 we would see BTC listed on bloomberg and CNBC, front page articles in the WSJ (serious articles at that), 100's of millions of VC money pouring into start-ups, famous gold bugs endorsing bitcoin, every student at MIT about to receive $100 of bitcoin, 8000 bitcoin locations to buy BTC in Argentina, ATMs    locations rapidly growing, 1/2 dozen serious btc exchange sites getting geared up, hedge funds and ETF's on the horizon, not to mention serious, large retailers accepting bitcoin around the world, and a BTC price between $500 and $1200, I would been very skeptical, and would have thought "bitcoin has far exceeded my expectations, and is moving toward success - and quickly". All the boxes I would have wanted to see checked, are being checked.

"And now I come to camp to hear the waters called muddy and the current quickened, though I see no change in the creek.  And the Hooples, certain sure that flood crest fast approaches, have begun to think keenly, I’ll get ahead of the event.  Maybe I’ll sell my claim at discount. Anything to unharness so they can head for the higher ground.  Myself, Maam, I’d be bettin that the levy’ll hold."

http://youtu.be/Y_v6f_PNf5I   

Deadwood 2X4

+1 Very well put!

[elebit]

Looks like you could come out right on this.

Dunno what scares me most, rpietila being right or me losing money. Repeatedly punching myself in the head doesn't seem to help.

[KarmaShark]

Risto, this will go down as quite the bold call if we are now embarking on a long and joyful ride up. Wouldn't be the first good call he has made folks...

[hd060053]

We won't see more than 5k until next halving. Too much new fiat is needed everyday to support bigger price.

there is enough fiat, millions are printed by banks every day.

whales have enough useless fiat, they just have to understand how bitcoin works.