Why Do People Believe Bitcoin Will Replace Fiat?

[Kickstart4]

I don't think BTC is going to replace FIAT, they are only going crazy.

Acc to some people BTC is still fragile.

[1714504066]

1714504066

[1714504066]

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[jbreher]

Acc to some people BTC is still fragile.

And according to logic, fiat is fragile.

[MicroGuy]

Well everyone has their opinion and is entitled to it. I think it'll be a very long time before any crypto replaces fiat currency, largely in part because the central banks and authorities wont want to give control of the production up.

This make sense. I think it's going to take time and probably a crypto with a more relatable name for consumers.  

[qwerty555]

A point that seems to be missed is that Bitcoin is already replacing fiat to the extent of approx $30 million per day. If bitcoin/crypto did not exist fiat would have to be used for most of that volume of transaction. It is a small beginning and currently the $ value and transaction volume is increasing incrementally at approx 3% per month average.

I expect that this increment in usage will soon increase to 10% + per month but Fiat is also increasing and for bitcoin even at that higher rate, should it remain constant, it would take decades to completely replace fiat.

increase in Bitcoin supply currently is 108k coins or approx 0.8% per month

increase in US$ supply is approx 6.5% per yr

https://ycharts.com/indicators/m2_money_supply_growth

Other countries have widely differing supply figures

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FM.LBL.MQMY.ZG

The maths suggest that Bitcoin has a tiny percentage of use compared to Fiat and this will continue for the foreseeable future unless some dramatic event/events spur its usage but nevertheless it is already replacing Fiat and is increasingly doing so at a very slow pace and from a very low base when looking at it from total fiat usage. Although arguably it is very fast when looking at it purely from bitcoin usage in $ terms yr on yr since 2011



 

[murraypaul]

A point that seems to be missed is that Bitcoin is already replacing fiat to the extent of approx $30 million per day. If bitcoin/crypto did not exist fiat would have to be used for most of that volume of transaction.

Not really, a large proportion of bitcoin transaction volume is purely self-referential, and doesn't touch the 'real' economy.
Coin generation, fees, payouts from mining pools to users, transfers between wallets, payment for cloud hashing, and so on.
Add in transfers to and from alt-coin exchanges, dice and other gambling sites.
How much is left which represents real payments which would still have taken place without Bitcoin?

[Beliathon]

Only stupid believe bitcoin will replace Fiat  

I believe bitcoin will replace fiat, and statistically speaking there's an approximately 93% chance I'm more intelligent than you.



Take from that what you will.

[murraypaul]

Only stupid believe bitcoin will replace Fiat  

I believe bitcoin will replace fiat, and statistically speaking there's an approximately 93% chance I'm more intelligent have a higher IQ than you.

I corrected your post for you.
The only thing an IQ test measures is IQ, not intelligence.

[qwerty555]

A point that seems to be missed is that Bitcoin is already replacing fiat to the extent of approx $30 million per day. If bitcoin/crypto did not exist fiat would have to be used for most of that volume of transaction.

Not really, a large proportion of bitcoin transaction volume is purely self-referential, and doesn't touch the 'real' economy.
Coin generation, fees, payouts from mining pools to users, transfers between wallets, payment for cloud hashing, and so on.
Add in transfers to and from alt-coin exchanges, dice and other gambling sites.
How much is left which represents real payments which would still have taken place without Bitcoin?

I would suggest that mining and its payouts, gambling and trading other coins are part of the real economy  but agree transfer between wallets of the same owner diminish the total $ volume used in trade/commerce to some extent. The same would apply to fiat transfers between owners accounts, so apples and apples comparison arguably holds.  Provided that it continues to increase in volume the growth curve will show at what pace/time frame it will reach 1% of total fiat transactions.

Using very rough figures

GDP of USA alone in 2013 was $16.8 trillion in order to reach that figure ( and assuming GDP growth is zero and bitcoin has a 100% per annum growth rate in $ volume) from $30 million/ day or $10.9 Billion a year with a 100% /annum increase in $ volume it would take 14 yrs for bitcoin to reach 16 trillion.  so even if the true trading volume is only 10% of $30 M or $3 million a day it would still only take an extra year or 2 . The point being it could be done in under 20 years if growth continues at past rates..this is not to say it will as many other factors will influence that rate in the future.

As I posted earlier in this thread my personal opinion is that Governments will introduce a crypto currency which they control and engage in monetary reform of their existing Fiats sooner rather than later and long before bitcoin gets to even 1% of GDP.

[Honeypot]

Crypto may come to serve a very powerful role, but tech itself does not guarantee absolute or near absolute viability in terms of replacing fiat.

Those who cannot understand this concept or the very real and simple reasons behind it are the same ones who have trouble understanding why the world doesn't turn around them.

Crypto may play an important partial role in finances in the future. It won't be bitcoin at the helm however.

Verdict? OP's question is right on the mark and is valid.

[gonnafly]

I had this thought that fiat could be backed by bitcoin much like the gold standard era. I don't see the Fed backing out without a fight.

[CokeCoin]

The entire purpose of fiat was to be more portable and divisible than gold. Bitcoin is divisible enough and infinitely more portable than fiat. Natural selection will eventually make fiat a thing of the past but it may take decades. Government corruption/violence, and public education/awareness are the only factors that can delay its progress.

That's actually not remotely true at all. Notes/coins that stood in place for gold were used just fine under the gold standard and they made the trading the ownership of gold easy. The actual reason the world collectively left the gold standard was its deflationary nature. The world's economists felt after studying thousands of years of human economies that human economies did best with a steady, low, annual monetary inflation of 1-2%, this was impossible to achieve with the gold standard where gold production could not keep pace with the growing world economy so countries left it behind.

[GTA]

The entire purpose of fiat was to be more portable and divisible than gold. Bitcoin is divisible enough and infinitely more portable than fiat. Natural selection will eventually make fiat a thing of the past but it may take decades. Government corruption/violence, and public education/awareness are the only factors that can delay its progress.

That's actually not remotely true at all. Notes/coins that stood in place for gold were used just fine under the gold standard and they made the trading the ownership of gold easy. The actual reason the world collectively left the gold standard was its deflationary nature. The world's economists felt after studying thousands of years of human economies that human economies did best with a steady, low, annual monetary inflation of 1-2%, this was impossible to achieve with the gold standard where gold production could not keep pace with the growing world economy so countries left it behind.

Fiat was created BEFORE any economists started thinking kenesian theory. Fiat was indeed created and initially used because it was easier to transact in than gold. So yea, it is very true.

[Summer,69]

The entire purpose of fiat was to be more portable and divisible than gold. Bitcoin is divisible enough and infinitely more portable than fiat. Natural selection will eventually make fiat a thing of the past but it may take decades. Government corruption/violence, and public education/awareness are the only factors that can delay its progress.

That's actually not remotely true at all. Notes/coins that stood in place for gold were used just fine under the gold standard and they made the trading the ownership of gold easy. The actual reason the world collectively left the gold standard was its deflationary nature. The world's economists felt after studying thousands of years of human economies that human economies did best with a steady, low, annual monetary inflation of 1-2%, this was impossible to achieve with the gold standard where gold production could not keep pace with the growing world economy so countries left it behind.

Fiat was created BEFORE any economists started thinking kenesian theory. Fiat was indeed created and initially used because it was easier to transact in than gold. So yea, it is very true.

Not true. Its creation and the arguments for it are well documented, go open up some fucking history books pal. It had literally nothing to do with transaction ease. People had no more problem transacting on the gold standard than they did fiat. Both systems used notes and coins.

[polunna]

There is no possibility of bitcoin totally replacing all fiat currency. We must keep in mind that there is limit on maximum number of bitcoin that can exist. Most part of product vendors and services providers may shift to bitcoin as it will save them lot of transaction fee.

[bambino]

There is no possibility of bitcoin totally replacing all fiat currency. We must keep in mind that there is limit on maximum number of bitcoin that can exist. Most part of product vendors and services providers may shift to bitcoin as it will save them lot of transaction fee.

Limited supply is not a problem when you have near unlimited divisibility.

21 million doesn't sound like much, until you realize that the deflationary aspect of it will practically assure that it can fulfill the needs of the populace. If bitcoin theoretically continues to deflate, it will one day reach parity with the entire market cap of the dollar supply. That will be more than enough money for the planet. The divisibilty aspect further assures that usage of bitcoins (as well as its deflationary aspect) will not become cumbersome.

Fiat currencies continued existence relies on it being a suitable usecase to hold your assets in. Right now, faith in bitcoin is not yet strong enough to warrant this kind of reliance. But if it continues to survive, soon people will start paying more attention to the deflationary aspect than to the inherent risk of the system collapsing. Once people believe that the risk of bitcoin collapsing has the same risks as the internet collapsing, the usecase for fiat currencies to hold your assets in ceases to exist entirely.

The reason people cannot see fiat currency dissappearing, is because they see it in terms of how the general populace sees it. This is the wrong way to reason. The general populace is the last to see change coming and they will be the last to make the switch. You must look at it from the perspective of a whale and how whales affect change and markets.

[itsAj]

The entire purpose of fiat was to be more portable and divisible than gold. Bitcoin is divisible enough and infinitely more portable than fiat. Natural selection will eventually make fiat a thing of the past but it may take decades. Government corruption/violence, and public education/awareness are the only factors that can delay its progress.

That's actually not remotely true at all. Notes/coins that stood in place for gold were used just fine under the gold standard and they made the trading the ownership of gold easy. The actual reason the world collectively left the gold standard was its deflationary nature. The world's economists felt after studying thousands of years of human economies that human economies did best with a steady, low, annual monetary inflation of 1-2%, this was impossible to achieve with the gold standard where gold production could not keep pace with the growing world economy so countries left it behind.

Fiat was created BEFORE any economists started thinking kenesian theory. Fiat was indeed created and initially used because it was easier to transact in than gold. So yea, it is very true.

I am pretty sure that kenesians had their crazy ideas well before the US left the gold standard.

[twiifm]

A point that seems to be missed is that Bitcoin is already replacing fiat to the extent of approx $30 million per day. If bitcoin/crypto did not exist fiat would have to be used for most of that volume of transaction. It is a small beginning and currently the $ value and transaction volume is increasing incrementally at approx 3% per month average.


 

Wow poor logical thinking.  Its not zero sum.  Those bit coins came into existence through mining.  They didn't replace any fiat because no fiat got taken out of circulation

[cbeast]

A point that seems to be missed is that Bitcoin is already replacing fiat to the extent of approx $30 million per day. If bitcoin/crypto did not exist fiat would have to be used for most of that volume of transaction. It is a small beginning and currently the $ value and transaction volume is increasing incrementally at approx 3% per month average.


 

Wow poor logical thinking.  Its not zero sum.  Those bit coins came into existence through mining.  They didn't replace any fiat because no fiat got taken out of circulation

Speak for yourself. My bitcoins replaced my fiat.

[twiifm]

A point that seems to be missed is that Bitcoin is already replacing fiat to the extent of approx $30 million per day. If bitcoin/crypto did not exist fiat would have to be used for most of that volume of transaction. It is a small beginning and currently the $ value and transaction volume is increasing incrementally at approx 3% per month average.


 

Wow poor logical thinking.  Its not zero sum.  Those bit coins came into existence through mining.  They didn't replace any fiat because no fiat got taken out of circulation

Speak for yourself. My bitcoins replaced my fiat.

Your fiat still exists its just in someone else's possession 

[cbeast]

A point that seems to be missed is that Bitcoin is already replacing fiat to the extent of approx $30 million per day. If bitcoin/crypto did not exist fiat would have to be used for most of that volume of transaction. It is a small beginning and currently the $ value and transaction volume is increasing incrementally at approx 3% per month average.


 

Wow poor logical thinking.  Its not zero sum.  Those bit coins came into existence through mining.  They didn't replace any fiat because no fiat got taken out of circulation

Speak for yourself. My bitcoins replaced my fiat.

Your fiat still exists its just in someone else's possession 

Wrong. That fiat is their's, not mine.