DiceBitco.in - New Thread to Discuss

[Jungian]

(...) By the way, for fun can someone explain the math of how monstrously improbable Matteo's run of "luck" (fraud) was?

Let X_i be the random variable modeling the profit of each bet.

Assumptions:
1) profits went from 260 to -330, that is manlteo's profit = (+/-) 600btc
2) N=60k bets of 1btc each @ 2x payout
3) math bullshit (iid random variables), q=0.495

Let S= X_1+X_2+ ... + X_60000. We should expect E(S)= 60000 x ( 1x0.495 + (-1)x0.505 ) = -600 (a loss).

We want to know P[S >= 600]. Central limit theorem states that  \sqrt(N) x [ S - E(S) ] / stdev(X) =: Z is normally distrubuted N(0,1).

var(X) = E(X^2) - E(X)^2 = 1 - (2q-1)^2 = 4q(1-q) = 0.9999, so stdev ~ 1

So
P[S >= 600] = P[Z >= \sqrt(N) [600 -(-600)] / 1 ] = P[Z>= 244x1200] = 1-P[Z<=294000] = 1-1 = 0.

That probability is zero. I'd say you are few orders of magnitude more likely to die, along with 1 million people at the same time, before you finish reading this, than to have maeonlgerry's luck.

Can someone with good knowledge of math confirm this?

[TSE]

just played there. won a bit and get my btcs back. dont look like a scam to me for now

[Jungian]

just played there. won a bit and get my btcs back. dont look like a scam to me for now

No one has claimed it's a scam in that way. We are plenty who played and won, and I'm not sure if anyone has claimed they couldn't get their money withdrawn.

[smalltimer50]

I still can't believe Dooglus and others actually believe that Matteo could have been a legitimate whale. Are you kidding me? Just the math + the timing alone is 99% of the proof you need. People are going to let Manl get away with stealing 600 + BTC. He decided to only steal from the pooled amount of smaller investors cause he thought he could get away with it (and judging by the responses in this thread, he is). Stealing from one of the 250+ BTC individual investors earlier would have put too much heat on his back.

Let me ask you this: Why the hell would a whale go to dicebitco.in during the first 12 hours of a massive scandal and bet 45,000+ BTC in 24 hours. Are you guys that naive?


   

[ovdsm]

what gave you a reason to think that somebody believes that mateo could have been a legitimate whale?

[der_troll]

Scam or no, mateo being owner or lucky whale...people will forget about this in a week and move on. Only good thing is that no big harm was done, it could have me much worse.

[21pilot]

looks like a nice pay day for manl:

https://blockchain.info/address/1N61semERRahc7ivnDT9botTzU8GmZ3bP3
https://blockchain.info/de/address/16t5UjxLNbKRMXUwXGxtHUUGTTmcKZSmQc

~666000 $ in the 2nd address

[21pilot]

Scam or no, mateo being owner or lucky whale...people will forget about this in a week and move on. Only good thing is that no big harm was done, it could have me much worse.

are you fucking kidding me  ?

no harm was done?

after the scam with the skipped nounces was discovered they robbed the remaining investors (many who were at work or
couldn´t be online due to some other) reason by playing with knowing the server seeds!

and by this won at least 600000 $ (that´s more than a half million!!!)

[zvs]

i hereby donate all my lost gambling and signature moneys (about .25 bitcoins), to whomever got taken for $500,000

distribute it evenly pls

[autotoss]

why 600000 $? site profit was 300 btc and now -300 btc. where other 600 btc?

[21pilot]

why 600000 $? site profit was 300 btc and now -300 btc. where other 600 btc?

commissions, rigging the profit display...

[jaysabi]

I still can't believe Dooglus and others actually believe that Matteo could have been a legitimate whale. Are you kidding me? Just the math + the timing alone is 99% of the proof you need.

I guess the other 1% would be ACTUAL EVIDENCE then. Suspicious timing is not evidence. Someone winning is not evidence. Someone winning at a suspicious time is not evidence. I believe Matteo was an inside job too, the difference is I'm leaving open the possibility it wasn't. All this BS talk of improbability and unlikeliness and suspicious timing is just unsubstantiated speculation. Under the broken logic and dubious math you're all using, you know what else is suspicious? Everyone who's ever won the Powerball. It's SO suspicious that anyone would play or win a game with a 0% chance of winning!

Don't confuse someone who knows the difference between suspicious circumstances and evidence as someone who believes Matteo and manl are two different people. Just because you've convicted manl with missing pieces of information and while high on emotion and based on speculation doesn't mean everyone has such a low threshold for judgment.

I believe Matteo was an inside job, but I also acknowledge the possibility he was legitimate. It can't be worse odds than winning the Powerball.

[IamNotSure]

I still can't believe Dooglus and others actually believe that Matteo could have been a legitimate whale. Are you kidding me? Just the math + the timing alone is 99% of the proof you need.

I guess the other 1% would be ACTUAL EVIDENCE then. Suspicious timing is not evidence. Someone winning is not evidence. Someone winning at a suspicious time is not evidence. I believe Matteo was an inside job too, the difference is I'm leaving open the possibility it wasn't. All this BS talk of improbability and unlikeliness and suspicious timing is just unsubstantiated speculation. Under the broken logic and dubious math you're all using, you know what else is suspicious? Everyone who's ever won the Powerball. It's SO suspicious that anyone would play or win a game with a 0% game of winning!

Don't confuse someone who knows the difference between suspicious circumstances and evidence as someone who believes Matteo and manl are two different people. Just because you've convicted manl with missing pieces of information and while high on emotion and based on speculation doesn't mean everyone has such a low threshold for judgment.

I believe Matteo was an inside job, but I also acknowledge the possibility he was legitimate. It can't be worse odds than winning the Powerball.

Lol, it's more like 1000%

Not unplugging the site while he was playing would be like a banker witnessing a heist and not calling the cops.

[snuffish]

I don't get it. Does people actually keep deposit and play on the site?

I see some high bets from time to time. They should just close it down and "re-open" when everyone have been re-funded etc.

[sumantso]

Give me back my 0.3 BTC!
1HszoAk4WCfthq93NJm9J7XFSputmxE2sk

Jeesh, i'm not going to recommend bitcoin to anyone else... The technology behind the bitcoin protocol seems very reliable to me, but the community just sucks...
Nothing but dishonest people. I have been scammed so many times, even though i myself have been so honest to others. I made a zero-profit bitcoin faucet handing out so much money, i helped people repair their bitcoin wallets containing ten's of BTC, never asking a bitcent in return. And yet i'm the one who always gets scammed one way or another.

No more bitcoin investing for me...

This is a very toxic community. I have seen through so many scams and now I have stopped digging. Thankfully, there are these 2.0 cryptos which are quite interesting to look into.

[cmichaud]

I don't get it. Does people actually keep deposit and play on the site?

I see some high bets from time to time. They should just close it down and "re-open" when everyone have been re-funded etc.

Perhaps some people don't even come on "bitcointalk" and just don't know what happened..

[marcotheminer]

looks like a nice pay day for manl:

https://blockchain.info/address/1N61semERRahc7ivnDT9botTzU8GmZ3bP3
https://blockchain.info/de/address/16t5UjxLNbKRMXUwXGxtHUUGTTmcKZSmQc

~666000 $ in the 2nd address

I'm also wondering why these bitcoins weren't paid back Are they mateo's coins or still part of the site's hot wallet?

[LtPaxIV]

well i think the ppl still betting either didnt get to know what happened,or just dont care.at least deposit and withdraw are still working,so for new ppl wich are not here maybe hardly to find out.

[NLNico]

Or they still saw your/others signature which is still actively promoting a scam :\

[marcotheminer]

Or they still saw your/others signature which is still actively promoting a scam :\

We are not sure it is a scam. From what it seems it was an honest mistake, however with how everyone reacted many people were led to believe it was a scam.